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万事达卡股价创历史新高,什么原因?

Jeff John Roberts
2025-03-10

万事达卡最近预计未来三年的年复合增长率将达到12%至14%。

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万事达卡首席财务官萨钦·梅赫拉(Sachin Mehra)。

不经意的旁观者可能会惊讶地发现,万事达卡(Mastercard)的股价正在飙升。在多数人的认知里,万事达卡不过是从事向商家收取信用卡刷卡手续费这种平淡无奇的业务。上周,这家信用卡巨头的股价达到575美元的历史新高,许多分析师预测其股价还将继续攀升,尤其是因为万事达卡最近预计未来三年的年复合增长率将达到12%至14%。

这是因为消费者疯狂刷卡消费吗?也不尽然。虽然交易量的上升确实推动了公司的增长,但真正的增长动力在于万事达卡近期对服务业务的拓展,如今服务业务已占公司收入的40%。

在接受《财富》杂志采访时,万事达卡首席财务官萨钦·梅赫拉将公司当前的战略描述为一个“良性循环”,即网络交易产生有价值的数据,公司可以利用这些数据构建诸如网络安全和精准营销等附加服务。梅赫拉补充说,与此同时,该公司日益强大的人工智能能力(主要基于内部构建)正迅速推动这两项业务的优化。

无论如何,投资者对万事达卡的经营状况似乎颇为满意,因为其过去12个月的回报率约为32.3%,远超同期标准普尔指数26.4%的回报率。这一表现促使许多人将万事达卡视为成长型投资,尤其是考虑到该公司每年0.55%的派息率相对较低。

考虑到许多业内同行的表现相对疲软,万事达卡的业绩尤为亮眼。下图显示了万事达卡过去三年相对于标准普尔指数中金融子板块的表现:

图表中显示的显著差异在一定程度上可以归因于该分类指数纳入了一组地区性银行,由于利率上升导致该行业出现危机,这些银行的股价遭受重创。还需要注意的是,万事达卡的主要竞争对手Visa的表现也优于标准普尔指数的整体水平,而且这两家公司都可能因美国第一资本金融公司(Capital One)收购Discover及其网络而面临压力。

不过,万事达卡在快速增长的服务领域的投入力度超越了两家竞争对手。据梅赫拉称,这一战略有望在未来几年带来巨大收益。

人工智能与即将到来的反欺诈之战

万事达卡去年斥资26.5亿美元收购了Recorded Future(一家专门揭露海外黑客威胁的公司),这凸显了网络安全已成为这家信用卡巨头战略和商业计划的关键组成部分。

万事达卡在12月底才完成对Recorded Future的收购,因此此次收购对该公司最新财报的贡献微乎其微,但未来有望大幅提升公司收入。尽管该公司没有提供其服务业务收入的详细细分数据,但从梅赫拉及其他高管的言论来看,网络安全业务显然占据了相当大的比例。

实际上,万事达卡的网络业务是以向商家出售先进的欺诈检测服务的形式开展的,这些服务能够帮助商家决定如何在减少交易摩擦和甄别不良行为者之间找到最佳平衡点。作为对这一过程的补充,万事达卡还大力推广“令牌化”(tokenization),即用更通用的标识符取代可能被拦截和窃取的卡号。

然而,在未来几年,信用卡网络可能会面临前所未有的考验,因为欺诈团伙——其中许多是来自俄罗斯和中国的资深黑客犯罪分子——利用生成人工智能工具来创建深度伪造内容和开展其他形式的高级仿冒活动。不过,梅赫拉表示,万事达卡已经做好了应对新威胁的准备,部分原因是人工智能不仅是攻击者的工具,也是企业加强防御的工具。

他解释说,无论是从网络安全还是公司整体运营的角度来看,万事达卡都拥有一套完善的人工智能战略,这得益于2017年对旧金山人工智能初创公司Brighterion的收购。该战略由三部分框架组成,为人工智能的使用提供了依据。

梅赫拉表示:“仅仅拥有数据是不够的……关键在于如何整合数据,以充分发挥模型的效能。第一步,你必须拥有数据。第二步,你必须对数据进行结构化处理并加以整合,以充分发挥模型的效能。第三步是配备相关领域的数据科学家和人工智能专业人才,这样才能真正构建出自适应学习模型,以提升效率。”

至于在即将到来的生成式人工智能对决中,网络攻击者与万事达卡谁能更胜一筹,只有时间能给出答案。与此同时,万事达卡正利用人工智能优化其他服务产品,包括为星巴克(Starbucks)等大型客户提供的基于数据的营销服务,这些客户希望提升线上和线下广告投放的精准度。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

万事达卡首席财务官萨钦·梅赫拉(Sachin Mehra)。

不经意的旁观者可能会惊讶地发现,万事达卡(Mastercard)的股价正在飙升。在多数人的认知里,万事达卡不过是从事向商家收取信用卡刷卡手续费这种平淡无奇的业务。上周,这家信用卡巨头的股价达到575美元的历史新高,许多分析师预测其股价还将继续攀升,尤其是因为万事达卡最近预计未来三年的年复合增长率将达到12%至14%。

这是因为消费者疯狂刷卡消费吗?也不尽然。虽然交易量的上升确实推动了公司的增长,但真正的增长动力在于万事达卡近期对服务业务的拓展,如今服务业务已占公司收入的40%。

在接受《财富》杂志采访时,万事达卡首席财务官萨钦·梅赫拉将公司当前的战略描述为一个“良性循环”,即网络交易产生有价值的数据,公司可以利用这些数据构建诸如网络安全和精准营销等附加服务。梅赫拉补充说,与此同时,该公司日益强大的人工智能能力(主要基于内部构建)正迅速推动这两项业务的优化。

无论如何,投资者对万事达卡的经营状况似乎颇为满意,因为其过去12个月的回报率约为32.3%,远超同期标准普尔指数26.4%的回报率。这一表现促使许多人将万事达卡视为成长型投资,尤其是考虑到该公司每年0.55%的派息率相对较低。

考虑到许多业内同行的表现相对疲软,万事达卡的业绩尤为亮眼。下图显示了万事达卡过去三年相对于标准普尔指数中金融子板块的表现:

图表中显示的显著差异在一定程度上可以归因于该分类指数纳入了一组地区性银行,由于利率上升导致该行业出现危机,这些银行的股价遭受重创。还需要注意的是,万事达卡的主要竞争对手Visa的表现也优于标准普尔指数的整体水平,而且这两家公司都可能因美国第一资本金融公司(Capital One)收购Discover及其网络而面临压力。

不过,万事达卡在快速增长的服务领域的投入力度超越了两家竞争对手。据梅赫拉称,这一战略有望在未来几年带来巨大收益。

人工智能与即将到来的反欺诈之战

万事达卡去年斥资26.5亿美元收购了Recorded Future(一家专门揭露海外黑客威胁的公司),这凸显了网络安全已成为这家信用卡巨头战略和商业计划的关键组成部分。

万事达卡在12月底才完成对Recorded Future的收购,因此此次收购对该公司最新财报的贡献微乎其微,但未来有望大幅提升公司收入。尽管该公司没有提供其服务业务收入的详细细分数据,但从梅赫拉及其他高管的言论来看,网络安全业务显然占据了相当大的比例。

实际上,万事达卡的网络业务是以向商家出售先进的欺诈检测服务的形式开展的,这些服务能够帮助商家决定如何在减少交易摩擦和甄别不良行为者之间找到最佳平衡点。作为对这一过程的补充,万事达卡还大力推广“令牌化”(tokenization),即用更通用的标识符取代可能被拦截和窃取的卡号。

然而,在未来几年,信用卡网络可能会面临前所未有的考验,因为欺诈团伙——其中许多是来自俄罗斯和中国的资深黑客犯罪分子——利用生成人工智能工具来创建深度伪造内容和开展其他形式的高级仿冒活动。不过,梅赫拉表示,万事达卡已经做好了应对新威胁的准备,部分原因是人工智能不仅是攻击者的工具,也是企业加强防御的工具。

他解释说,无论是从网络安全还是公司整体运营的角度来看,万事达卡都拥有一套完善的人工智能战略,这得益于2017年对旧金山人工智能初创公司Brighterion的收购。该战略由三部分框架组成,为人工智能的使用提供了依据。

梅赫拉表示:“仅仅拥有数据是不够的……关键在于如何整合数据,以充分发挥模型的效能。第一步,你必须拥有数据。第二步,你必须对数据进行结构化处理并加以整合,以充分发挥模型的效能。第三步是配备相关领域的数据科学家和人工智能专业人才,这样才能真正构建出自适应学习模型,以提升效率。”

至于在即将到来的生成式人工智能对决中,网络攻击者与万事达卡谁能更胜一筹,只有时间能给出答案。与此同时,万事达卡正利用人工智能优化其他服务产品,包括为星巴克(Starbucks)等大型客户提供的基于数据的营销服务,这些客户希望提升线上和线下广告投放的精准度。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Casual observers might be surprised to learn that shares of Mastercard, which most people associate with the humdrum business of charging merchants for credit card swipes, are soaring. Last week, the card giant’s stock hit an all-time high of $575, and many analysts predict it will keep climbing—not least because Mastercard recently forecast compound annual growth of 12% to 14% for the next three years.

Is this due to consumers charging up a storm? Not exactly. While an uptick in transactions is certainly helping the company’s growth story, the real growth story lies in Mastercard’s recent embrace of services, which now make up 40% of the company’s revenue.

In an interview with Fortune, Mastercard CFO Sachin Mehra described the company’s current strategy as a “virtuous cycle” where network transactions supply valuable data that it can use to build add-on services for things like cybersecurity and targeted marketing. Meanwhile, Mehra added, the company’s growing prowess in AI—which is primarily built in-house—is rapidly improving both sides of the business.

In any event, investors appear to like what the company is doing as Mastercard’s current 12-month return is around 32.3%, significantly outpacing the S&P index figure of 26.4% for the same period. This suggests many regard Mastercard as a growth play—especially considering the company’s modest annual 0.55% dividend payout.

Mastercard’s performance is also notable given the relatively feeble showing of many of its industry peers. The chart below shows its relative three-year performance compared to a financial subset of the S&P index:

The massive discrepancy shown in the chart can be explained in part by the sub-index's inclusion of a group of regional banks whose shares got hammered amid a crisis in the sector caused by rising interest rates. It should also be noted that Mastercard's main competitor, Visa, also outperformed the overall S&P and that both companies could face pressure due to Capital One's acquisition of Discover and its network.

Mastercard, though, has leaned into the fast-growing services segment to a greater degree than either of its competitors, and according to Mehra, that strategy is poised to reap outsize benefits in coming years.

AI and the coming fraud battle

When Mastercard spent $2.65 billion last year to purchase Recorded Future—a firm that specializes in exposing overseas hacking threats—it underscored how cybersecurity has become a key component of the card giant's strategic and business plans.

The Recorded Future acquisition only closed in late December, meaning it made a minimal contribution to Mastercard's latest earnings, but it will likely provide a significant revenue boost going forward. The company did not provide a granular breakdown of the money it is making from services, but based on comments from Mehra and other executives, it's clear cybersecurity contributes to a big portion of that.

In practice, Mastercard's cyber business comes in the form of selling advanced fraud detection services to merchants that help them decide how to best establish a trade-off between reducing transaction friction and screening for bad actors. This process is complemented by the company's push to expand tokenization, a process that replaces card numbers—which can be intercepted and stolen—with a more generic identifier.

In coming years, however, credit card networks are likely to be tested like never before as fraud rings—many of them seasoned criminal hackers from Russia and China—use generative AI tools to create deepfakes and other forms of advanced impersonation. Mehra, though, says Mastercard is ready for the new threat, in part because AI is not just a tool for attackers, but for companies to harden their defenses.

He explained that, both for cybersecurity and the company's operations in general, Mastercard has a sophisticated AI strategy, that has been helped by its 2017 acquisition of Brighterion, a San Francisco artificial intelligence startup. That strategy is formed by a three-part framework that informs the use of AI.

"Just having the data is insufficient... You've got to be able to organize the data in a manner which allows for those models to be effective," said Mehra. "Step one, you've got to have the data. Step two, you have to structure the data and organize it in a manner which can make your models effective. Step three is about having the right kind of data scientists and AI folks to actually create models which are self-learning models which help to improve the efficacy."

When it comes to the coming generative AI clash between cyber attackers and Mastercard, only time will tell who has the upper hand. In the meantime, the company is also using AI to soup up its other service offerings, which include data-based marketing services that it provides to large customers like Starbucks that are looking to improve their ad targeting online and in the real world.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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