
美国存在集体悲观的问题。多项民调显示,较高比例的民众对未来的预期是衰退与绝望。
这一现象令人担忧,因为建设美好的未来始于对美好未来的憧憬。令人欣慰的是,或许可以通过更好地梳理历史成就,重新激发公众对未来的积极预期。
美国素来以着眼于未来的乐观主义精神而闻名。但皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的调查显示,至少三分之二的美国人认为,到2050年美国经济实力将衰退、国际地位将下降、政治分裂将加剧。《华尔街日报》与全国民意研究中心(NORC)的联合民调进一步表明,近80%的美国人预计其子女的生活不会比他们这一代人的生活更美好。
大量其他民意调查也印证,多数美国人认为国家正走在错误道路上。人类繁荣实验室(Human Flourishing Lab)定期调研美国人对未来的态度。调研发现,仅有约半数(最好的情况下)民众对国家的未来持积极预期。集体消极的态度既体现在人们对未来的整体抽象认知,也反映在对科技进步影响人类生活的具体判断上。例如,超过半数受访者认为,人工智能将压制人类的自由和创造力、冲击经济稳定,最终对社会和我们的个人生活产生负面影响。
这种集体性悲观是否值得重视?有人或许认为建设美好明天无需乐观精神,甚至有人声称乐观心态会滋生自满,反而阻碍进步。
但行为科学研究的大量证据证明,面向未来的积极心态确实能推动社会进步。例如,当个人对未来抱有希望时,他们就会变得更加自信、更以目标为驱动、更有韧性、更有创新能力、更积极地参与社区。乐观人群的社会信任度与公民参与度显著高于悲观者;由乐观者组成的团队在创造力、协作力与任务完成度方面表现更优。
如何重塑美国人对未来的积极态度?我们的最新民调揭示了一条路径:增强对历史进步的认知。在1月下旬开展的全国性调查(受访者为2,000多名美国成年人)中,我们发现受访者对未来50年发展的预期与对过去50年进步的评价高度相关。认为当下生活优于50年前的群体中,73%相信未来50年生活质量会有所提升。而在认为今不如昔的受访者中,只有33%对未来50年的生活持积极预期。这种关联性在所有人口统计学分类中普遍成立。
与其他研究一致,我们发现美国年轻群体对未来最缺乏信心。但与其他年龄群体类似,对历史进步的认知同样会显著影响年轻人的未来预期。在认可当下生活比50年前更美好的25岁以下群体中,60%认为未来50年生活质量会有所改善。而否定历史进步的同龄人中,该比例骤降至26%。简言之,无论年龄、性别、教育程度、收入水平或政治立场,承认历史进步者更可能对国家未来保持乐观。
作为文化共同体,我们需要系统梳理近几十年来科技、医疗、社会观念等领域的飞跃发展,并向公众宣传这些进步如何改善民生。我们还应培养对先辈成就的感恩之心,正是他们的贡献带来了今天的美好生活。研究表明,感恩之情不仅能增强未来预期,更能激发为社会发展做贡献的积极性。
当前社会往往将历史成就视作理所当然,让对现实的不满和日常生活中的挫败感阻碍我们跳出窠臼,无法从更长远的角度看待社会的发展,无法认识到生活在持续改善的现实。既然先辈们能突破重重障碍改善人类境遇,今天的我们也必能应对时代挑战。要建设更美好的明天,不妨从历史长河中汲取前行的力量。
本文作者克雷·劳特利奇为阿克布里奇研究所人类繁荣实验室的研究副总裁兼主任。
Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。 (财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
美国存在集体悲观的问题。多项民调显示,较高比例的民众对未来的预期是衰退与绝望。
这一现象令人担忧,因为建设美好的未来始于对美好未来的憧憬。令人欣慰的是,或许可以通过更好地梳理历史成就,重新激发公众对未来的积极预期。
美国素来以着眼于未来的乐观主义精神而闻名。但皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的调查显示,至少三分之二的美国人认为,到2050年美国经济实力将衰退、国际地位将下降、政治分裂将加剧。《华尔街日报》与全国民意研究中心(NORC)的联合民调进一步表明,近80%的美国人预计其子女的生活不会比他们这一代人的生活更美好。
大量其他民意调查也印证,多数美国人认为国家正走在错误道路上。人类繁荣实验室(Human Flourishing Lab)定期调研美国人对未来的态度。调研发现,仅有约半数(最好的情况下)民众对国家的未来持积极预期。集体消极的态度既体现在人们对未来的整体抽象认知,也反映在对科技进步影响人类生活的具体判断上。例如,超过半数受访者认为,人工智能将压制人类的自由和创造力、冲击经济稳定,最终对社会和我们的个人生活产生负面影响。
这种集体性悲观是否值得重视?有人或许认为建设美好明天无需乐观精神,甚至有人声称乐观心态会滋生自满,反而阻碍进步。
但行为科学研究的大量证据证明,面向未来的积极心态确实能推动社会进步。例如,当个人对未来抱有希望时,他们就会变得更加自信、更以目标为驱动、更有韧性、更有创新能力、更积极地参与社区。乐观人群的社会信任度与公民参与度显著高于悲观者;由乐观者组成的团队在创造力、协作力与任务完成度方面表现更优。
如何重塑美国人对未来的积极态度?我们的最新民调揭示了一条路径:增强对历史进步的认知。在1月下旬开展的全国性调查(受访者为2,000多名美国成年人)中,我们发现受访者对未来50年发展的预期与对过去50年进步的评价高度相关。认为当下生活优于50年前的群体中,73%相信未来50年生活质量会有所提升。而在认为今不如昔的受访者中,只有33%对未来50年的生活持积极预期。这种关联性在所有人口统计学分类中普遍成立。
与其他研究一致,我们发现美国年轻群体对未来最缺乏信心。但与其他年龄群体类似,对历史进步的认知同样会显著影响年轻人的未来预期。在认可当下生活比50年前更美好的25岁以下群体中,60%认为未来50年生活质量会有所改善。而否定历史进步的同龄人中,该比例骤降至26%。简言之,无论年龄、性别、教育程度、收入水平或政治立场,承认历史进步者更可能对国家未来保持乐观。
作为文化共同体,我们需要系统梳理近几十年来科技、医疗、社会观念等领域的飞跃发展,并向公众宣传这些进步如何改善民生。我们还应培养对先辈成就的感恩之心,正是他们的贡献带来了今天的美好生活。研究表明,感恩之情不仅能增强未来预期,更能激发为社会发展做贡献的积极性。
当前社会往往将历史成就视作理所当然,让对现实的不满和日常生活中的挫败感阻碍我们跳出窠臼,无法从更长远的角度看待社会的发展,无法认识到生活在持续改善的现实。既然先辈们能突破重重障碍改善人类境遇,今天的我们也必能应对时代挑战。要建设更美好的明天,不妨从历史长河中汲取前行的力量。
本文作者克雷·劳特利奇为阿克布里奇研究所人类繁荣实验室的研究副总裁兼主任。
Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。 (财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
America has a pessimism problem. Surveys show that large percentages of the public envision a future of decline and despair.
This is concerning because building a better future starts with envisioning a better future. The good news is that we might be able to inspire a positive outlook about the future by doing a better job of highlighting past progress.
America has long enjoyed a reputation for being a country of future-looking optimists. Yet, a survey by the Pew Research Center revealed that at least two-thirds of Americans believe that the nation will become economically weaker, less important in the world, and more politically divided by 2050. A Wall Street Journal-NORC survey showed that nearly 80% of Americans do not expect life for their children’s generation to be better than it has been for their own generation.
Numerous other polls indicate that most Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. At the Human Flourishing Lab, we regularly conduct surveys exploring American attitudes about the future, and we generally find that only around half of the population (at best) has positive expectations about the future of their nation. This is true for both abstract attitudes of the future and specific beliefs about how technological advances will affect life in the coming years. For example, we have found that over 50% of Americans believe that artificial intelligence will largely have negative effects on society and our personal lives by reducing human freedom and creativity while destabilizing the economy.
Does this matter? Some might believe that we don’t need a positive attitude about the future to build a better tomorrow. I’ve even heard people claim that optimism might undermine progress by encouraging complacency.
However, a large body of behavioral science research reveals that positive future-oriented attitudes do matter for advancing progress. For example, when people adopt a hopeful mindset, they are more self-confident, goal-motivated, resilient, innovative, and actively involved in their communities. Similarly, optimistic people report higher levels of social trust and civic engagement than their pessimistic counterparts. And groups composed of optimistic members are more creative, cooperative, and successful at completing assigned projects.
But how do we inspire Americans to have a more positive attitude toward the future? Our latest survey suggests one possibility: Increase awareness of past progress. Specifically, in a nationally representative survey of over 2,000 U.S. adults conducted in late January, we found that expectations about progress over the next 50 years are strongly related to beliefs about progress during the last 50 years. Specifically, among Americans who believe life in America is better today than it was 50 years ago, 73% expect life to be better 50 years from now than it is today. However, among Americans who do not believe life is better today than it was 50 years ago, only 33% expect it to be better 50 years in the future. This pattern was observed across every demographic category.
Similar to other surveys, we find that young American adults are the least likely to envision a brighter future. However, just like in every other age group, their attitude about past progress made a dramatic difference. Among adults under 25 who think life is better today than it was 50 years ago, 60% expect it to be improved over the next 50 years. This drops to 26% among those who do not think life is better today than it was in the past. In short, regardless of age, gender, level of education, household income, or political affiliation, Americans who recognize past progress are more likely to be optimistic about the future of our nation.
As a culture, we need to do more to educate people about the many advances in science, medicine, technology, and social attitudes that have improved people’s lives in recent decades. We should also encourage gratitude for advancements accomplished by previous generations that make our lives better today. Indeed, research shows that gratitude increases optimism for the future as well as the motivation to make positive contributions to society.
As a society, we often take historical advancements for granted, allowing our current dissatisfactions and daily frustrations to prevent us from stepping outside the present moment to take a larger view and realize that life has improved over time. If people in the past were able to overcome significant obstacles and improve the human condition, so too can we address the challenges of our time. To build a better tomorrow, let’s look to the past for inspiration.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.