
• 在唐纳德·特朗普上任当月,通货膨胀加剧,但他表示,这“与我无关”。不过,经济学家们还是对未来数月的情况感到担忧。
唐纳德·特朗普总统在竞选期间承诺降低美国民众的生活成本,并凭借这一承诺赢得了大选。然而,当前通货膨胀正在升温,而总统却否认与此有关。
特朗普与其得力助手埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)接受了福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼提(Sean Hannity)的采访,该采访于周二晚间播出。这两位亿万富翁在采访中谈到了他们之间的关系、马斯克旗下社交媒体平台向特朗普支付的1000万美元和解金,以及通货膨胀问题。
某一时刻,当马斯克声称特朗普从上届政府那里接手了2万亿美元赤字时,特朗普表示认同,并主动补充道:“通货膨胀卷土重来。我上任才两个半星期。”
特朗普继续说道:“这与我无关。他们开支之高,简直前所未有。"
政府数据显示,通货膨胀率在去年下半年逐渐回落后,上个月再度升温,年通胀率达到3%。受鸡蛋价格飙升、油价上涨和持续高企的住房成本推动,1月份消费者价格指数较去年12月上涨了0.5%,为一年半以来的最大单月涨幅。
我们离2022年6月的通胀水平(当时通胀率约为9%)还有一段距离。但另一方面,通胀率仍远未达到美联储2%的通胀目标。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)呼吁未来在降息问题上采取更为审慎的态度,而最新出炉的高通胀数据表明,无论特朗普是否呼吁降息,借贷成本都可能会在更长时间内保持高位。
需要明确的是,1月份拜登和特朗普都曾担任总统。经济学家警告称,特朗普提出的政策,包括大规模驱逐行动及关税措施,可能会引发通货膨胀,但现在就将1月份的通胀归咎于他或许还为时过早。
安联投资管理公司(Allianz Investment Management)高级投资策略师查理·里普利(Charlie Ripley)当时表示,1月份的“物价上涨可能与白宫实施的任何关税行动无关”。
穆迪分析公司(Moody’s)的首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)表示,虽然通货膨胀突然升温有多种原因,但“对总统经济政策的预期,因其引发了更高的通胀预期”,可能是推动通胀升温的其中一个因素。
赞迪表示:“全球投资者以及美国消费者都预期未来通胀会加剧。”他指出,对通货膨胀的预期“自9月份以来一直在不断攀升,当时特朗普在大选民调和博彩市场中的领先优势不断扩大。根据密歇根大学的调查,消费者对未来一年通货膨胀的预期近期甚至急剧上升。”赞迪解释说,对高通胀的预期可能会对实际通胀产生影响,因为预期物价上涨的消费者倾向于在当前购买更多商品,从而推动物价上涨。
经济学家一致认为,总统对物价的影响相当有限。但这并不能阻止政客们互相指责或邀功。特朗普将1月份的数据归咎于他的前任,在自己的社交媒体平台上写道:“拜登通胀上升!”
在竞选活动中,特朗普承诺在上任“第一天”就降低物价,但之后他似乎改变了主意,在接受《时代》杂志采访时表示,“物价一旦上涨就很难降下来。你知道的,这绝非易事。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
• 在唐纳德·特朗普上任当月,通货膨胀加剧,但他表示,这“与我无关”。不过,经济学家们还是对未来数月的情况感到担忧。
唐纳德·特朗普总统在竞选期间承诺降低美国民众的生活成本,并凭借这一承诺赢得了大选。然而,当前通货膨胀正在升温,而总统却否认与此有关。
特朗普与其得力助手埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)接受了福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼提(Sean Hannity)的采访,该采访于周二晚间播出。这两位亿万富翁在采访中谈到了他们之间的关系、马斯克旗下社交媒体平台向特朗普支付的1000万美元和解金,以及通货膨胀问题。
某一时刻,当马斯克声称特朗普从上届政府那里接手了2万亿美元赤字时,特朗普表示认同,并主动补充道:“通货膨胀卷土重来。我上任才两个半星期。”
特朗普继续说道:“这与我无关。他们开支之高,简直前所未有。"
政府数据显示,通货膨胀率在去年下半年逐渐回落后,上个月再度升温,年通胀率达到3%。受鸡蛋价格飙升、油价上涨和持续高企的住房成本推动,1月份消费者价格指数较去年12月上涨了0.5%,为一年半以来的最大单月涨幅。
我们离2022年6月的通胀水平(当时通胀率约为9%)还有一段距离。但另一方面,通胀率仍远未达到美联储2%的通胀目标。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)呼吁未来在降息问题上采取更为审慎的态度,而最新出炉的高通胀数据表明,无论特朗普是否呼吁降息,借贷成本都可能会在更长时间内保持高位。
需要明确的是,1月份拜登和特朗普都曾担任总统。经济学家警告称,特朗普提出的政策,包括大规模驱逐行动及关税措施,可能会引发通货膨胀,但现在就将1月份的通胀归咎于他或许还为时过早。
安联投资管理公司(Allianz Investment Management)高级投资策略师查理·里普利(Charlie Ripley)当时表示,1月份的“物价上涨可能与白宫实施的任何关税行动无关”。
穆迪分析公司(Moody’s)的首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)表示,虽然通货膨胀突然升温有多种原因,但“对总统经济政策的预期,因其引发了更高的通胀预期”,可能是推动通胀升温的其中一个因素。
赞迪表示:“全球投资者以及美国消费者都预期未来通胀会加剧。”他指出,对通货膨胀的预期“自9月份以来一直在不断攀升,当时特朗普在大选民调和博彩市场中的领先优势不断扩大。根据密歇根大学的调查,消费者对未来一年通货膨胀的预期近期甚至急剧上升。”赞迪解释说,对高通胀的预期可能会对实际通胀产生影响,因为预期物价上涨的消费者倾向于在当前购买更多商品,从而推动物价上涨。
经济学家一致认为,总统对物价的影响相当有限。但这并不能阻止政客们互相指责或邀功。特朗普将1月份的数据归咎于他的前任,在自己的社交媒体平台上写道:“拜登通胀上升!”
在竞选活动中,特朗普承诺在上任“第一天”就降低物价,但之后他似乎改变了主意,在接受《时代》杂志采访时表示,“物价一旦上涨就很难降下来。你知道的,这绝非易事。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Feb. 11.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
• Inflation heated up in the month that Donald Trump took office, but the president “had nothing to do with it,” he said. Still, economists are worried about the months ahead.
President Donald Trump campaigned and won on a promise to lower Americans’ cost of living. But inflation is heating up, and the president denies he has anything to do with it.
Trump and right-hand man Elon Musk sat down for an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity that aired Tuesday night, in which the two billionaires spoke about their relationship, the $10 million settlement Musk’s social media platform paid Trump, and inflation.
At one point, when Musk claimed Trump inherited a $2 trillion deficit from the prior administration, the president agreed, adding, unprompted: “And inflation is back. I’m only here for two and a half weeks.”
“I had nothing to do with it,” Trump continued. “They spent money like nobody has ever spent.”
After gradually falling for the second half of this year, inflation heated up last month, rising at a 3% annual rate, according to government data. The Consumer Price Index in January leaped 0.5% from December, the fastest monthly increase in a year and a half, spurred by a surge in the price of eggs, rising gas prices, and still-high housing costs.
We’re a ways away from June 2022 when inflation came in around 9%. But on the other hand, we’re still not very close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called for more caution with interest rate cuts ahead, and the latest, hot, inflation data suggests that borrowing costs could stay high longer, regardless of Trump’s petition for lower interest rates.
To be clear, Biden was president part of January, and so was Trump. Economists have warned that Trump’s proposed policies, including mass deportation and tariffs, could be inflationary, but January is likely too soon to cast blame.
January’s “rise in prices is likely unrelated to any tariff activity from the White House,” senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management Charlie Ripley said at the time.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said that while the sudden hot inflation has several causes, “the anticipation of the president’s economic policies, as they have resulted in higher inflation expectations,” could be one driver.
“Both global investors and American consumers are discounting higher inflation dead ahead,” Zandi said. He noted that expectations of inflation “have been rising since September, when Trump’s lead in the election polls and betting markets gained momentum. Consumer expectations of inflation in the coming year have increased even more sharply recently, according to the University of Michigan’s survey.” The anticipation of higher inflation might be affecting actual inflation, Zandi explained, as consumers who expect prices to go up tend to purchase more in the present, driving prices higher.
Economists agree that presidents’ influence on prices is fairly limited. But that doesn’t stop politicians from trying to cast blame—or take credit. Trump blamed his predecessor for January’s figures, writing, “BIDEN INFLATION UP!” on his social media platform.
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to bring prices down on “day one” in office, before seemingly backtracking and telling Time magazine, “it’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard.”