
• 富国银行(Wells Fargo)财富与投资管理部门首席投资官达里尔·克朗克基于三十多年的市场思考,分享了他给年轻的自己的15条建议。
当事业达到一个里程碑的时候,人们往往会开始怀旧反思。一位富国银行的高管在担任该华尔街银行的主管十周年之际,分享了一些他的投资智慧。
根据《财富》杂志获得的一份副本,富国银行财富和投资管理部门的首席投资官达里尔·克朗克向他的客户发送了一份清单,其中包含了15条他数十年来对于市场的思考。
根据克朗克的LinkedIn资料,尽管他自1992年以来一直在富国银行任职,但这份报告是为了庆祝投资咨询机构、富国银行子公司富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)成立十周年。克朗克自该研究所成立以来一直担任其总裁。
此外,这份报告发布不久之后,富国银行在今天上午召开了财报电话会议。财报电话会议称,该银行第四季度的利润超出预期,股价上涨了3.5%。
克朗克写道:“我希望这些原则中至少有几条对你有用,并对未来的投资者有所帮助。”
支配市场的建议
在市场兴衰方面,克朗克拥有三十多年的经验。
作为一位经验丰富的投资主管,克朗克学会了自信地投资并全力以赴,将市场视为“顶级掠食者”,以及参与增长领域以获取收益。克朗克建议要坦然接受市场上不存在确定性这个事实,并对市场的异常变化保持积极的好奇心。
以下是他关于把握市场时机、自信投资和充分利用市场优势的七条主要建议。
• “市场高效运行并不意味着它是正确的。”
• “如果你没有决心自律地坚持下去,那么最好的投资策略也可能变成最糟糕的策略。”
• “作为投资者的信心水平与在市场上投入的风险资本规模成反比。投入少的人非常自信,而投入多的人则会感到不安,他们更清楚潜在的风险所在。”
• “对异常的市场分歧,即价格以反直觉的方式波动的现象,要保持敏感。这种波动并非总是能带来良好的投资机会,但这时候你可以开始思考并询问:市场分歧为什么会出现?我们能从中得到哪些启示?”
• “投资者经常被提醒,尽管我们认为中央银行家或政客们可能很强大,但市场就像陆地上的狮子和海中的虎鲸一样,是顶级掠食者。当平衡被打破时,市场通常会迅速、残酷地恢复平衡,而不会去考虑稳定性。”
• “最聪明的投资者会挖掘出增长机会和资本需求所在的领域,然后确保自己在这些领域中拥有话语权。”
• “作为投资者,我们需要提醒自己,历史上长期牛市的两个最佳阶段是其生命周期的前25%和后25%。(中间的50%往往平淡无奇。)历史告诉我们,只要你能找准这两个阶段,就有可能获得大部分市场回报。”
不要被情绪左右的建议
有时候,阻碍你获得丰厚回报的不是市场,而是你自己。克朗克警告称,坚持既定计划并通过不断做出安全选择来获得舒适感,这并不是市场运作的方式。以下是他关于做出大胆投资选择和不破坏自身潜力的四条主要建议。
• “人类往往是情绪化的投资者,而不是客观的投资者。他们倾向于买高卖低,并且他们相信这样做有充分的理由。否则,他们就不会这样做。”
• “贪婪、傲慢、杠杆、流动性不足和缺乏想象力都会导致不可避免的结果。每一种因素对投资者都有吸引力。但如果不加以控制,就会造成毁灭性的后果。”
• 人们总是很容易相信同样的规则适用,实际上这种想法漏洞百出。适应当前的条件虽然困难,但能够带来回报。”
• “不要害怕强势。在投资行业有一条经久不衰的教训,那就是你最好的想法往往比你想象的更快实现并超越你的目标,而糟糕的想法则会停滞不前、令人沮丧并最终失败。
对投资新手的建议
克朗克分享的一些建议,甚至适用于“居家”投资者。
在了解投资和市场方面,克朗克反复强调了基础知识:关注最初的目标,放弃确定性思维,并知晓投资存在风险。最后,无论市场成交价格是多少,都很少是公允价值。
• “在进行投资的时候,最重要的考虑因素是你的起点。它决定了你的回报、风险以及与最终目标的距离。理解了这一点,相当于你已经成功了一半。”
• “尽管许多人错误地认为投资的关键是看回报,但真正的关键在于风险——了解自己需要承担多少风险,如何调整风险,如何管理风险,以及哪些是好的风险,哪些是坏的风险。回报只是所承担风险的副产品。”
• “确定性的幻觉:追求信念胜于追求确定性。确定性存在于绝对的世界中。信念以极大的谦逊对待市场。这要求我们提出问题,不断检验信念,并意识到条件和环境会发生变化。”
• “市场很少以公允价值进行交易。大多数时候,市场交易价格会高于或低于基础公允价值。学会理解这一点,坦然接受它,并尽量利用它来获得优势。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
• 富国银行(Wells Fargo)财富与投资管理部门首席投资官达里尔·克朗克基于三十多年的市场思考,分享了他给年轻的自己的15条建议。
当事业达到一个里程碑的时候,人们往往会开始怀旧反思。一位富国银行的高管在担任该华尔街银行的主管十周年之际,分享了一些他的投资智慧。
根据《财富》杂志获得的一份副本,富国银行财富和投资管理部门的首席投资官达里尔·克朗克向他的客户发送了一份清单,其中包含了15条他数十年来对于市场的思考。
根据克朗克的LinkedIn资料,尽管他自1992年以来一直在富国银行任职,但这份报告是为了庆祝投资咨询机构、富国银行子公司富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)成立十周年。克朗克自该研究所成立以来一直担任其总裁。
此外,这份报告发布不久之后,富国银行在今天上午召开了财报电话会议。财报电话会议称,该银行第四季度的利润超出预期,股价上涨了3.5%。
克朗克写道:“我希望这些原则中至少有几条对你有用,并对未来的投资者有所帮助。”
支配市场的建议
在市场兴衰方面,克朗克拥有三十多年的经验。
作为一位经验丰富的投资主管,克朗克学会了自信地投资并全力以赴,将市场视为“顶级掠食者”,以及参与增长领域以获取收益。克朗克建议要坦然接受市场上不存在确定性这个事实,并对市场的异常变化保持积极的好奇心。
以下是他关于把握市场时机、自信投资和充分利用市场优势的七条主要建议。
• “市场高效运行并不意味着它是正确的。”
• “如果你没有决心自律地坚持下去,那么最好的投资策略也可能变成最糟糕的策略。”
• “作为投资者的信心水平与在市场上投入的风险资本规模成反比。投入少的人非常自信,而投入多的人则会感到不安,他们更清楚潜在的风险所在。”
• “对异常的市场分歧,即价格以反直觉的方式波动的现象,要保持敏感。这种波动并非总是能带来良好的投资机会,但这时候你可以开始思考并询问:市场分歧为什么会出现?我们能从中得到哪些启示?”
• “投资者经常被提醒,尽管我们认为中央银行家或政客们可能很强大,但市场就像陆地上的狮子和海中的虎鲸一样,是顶级掠食者。当平衡被打破时,市场通常会迅速、残酷地恢复平衡,而不会去考虑稳定性。”
• “最聪明的投资者会挖掘出增长机会和资本需求所在的领域,然后确保自己在这些领域中拥有话语权。”
• “作为投资者,我们需要提醒自己,历史上长期牛市的两个最佳阶段是其生命周期的前25%和后25%。(中间的50%往往平淡无奇。)历史告诉我们,只要你能找准这两个阶段,就有可能获得大部分市场回报。”
不要被情绪左右的建议
有时候,阻碍你获得丰厚回报的不是市场,而是你自己。克朗克警告称,坚持既定计划并通过不断做出安全选择来获得舒适感,这并不是市场运作的方式。以下是他关于做出大胆投资选择和不破坏自身潜力的四条主要建议。
• “人类往往是情绪化的投资者,而不是客观的投资者。他们倾向于买高卖低,并且他们相信这样做有充分的理由。否则,他们就不会这样做。”
• “贪婪、傲慢、杠杆、流动性不足和缺乏想象力都会导致不可避免的结果。每一种因素对投资者都有吸引力。但如果不加以控制,就会造成毁灭性的后果。”
• 人们总是很容易相信同样的规则适用,实际上这种想法漏洞百出。适应当前的条件虽然困难,但能够带来回报。”
• “不要害怕强势。在投资行业有一条经久不衰的教训,那就是你最好的想法往往比你想象的更快实现并超越你的目标,而糟糕的想法则会停滞不前、令人沮丧并最终失败。
对投资新手的建议
克朗克分享的一些建议,甚至适用于“居家”投资者。
在了解投资和市场方面,克朗克反复强调了基础知识:关注最初的目标,放弃确定性思维,并知晓投资存在风险。最后,无论市场成交价格是多少,都很少是公允价值。
• “在进行投资的时候,最重要的考虑因素是你的起点。它决定了你的回报、风险以及与最终目标的距离。理解了这一点,相当于你已经成功了一半。”
• “尽管许多人错误地认为投资的关键是看回报,但真正的关键在于风险——了解自己需要承担多少风险,如何调整风险,如何管理风险,以及哪些是好的风险,哪些是坏的风险。回报只是所承担风险的副产品。”
• “确定性的幻觉:追求信念胜于追求确定性。确定性存在于绝对的世界中。信念以极大的谦逊对待市场。这要求我们提出问题,不断检验信念,并意识到条件和环境会发生变化。”
• “市场很少以公允价值进行交易。大多数时候,市场交易价格会高于或低于基础公允价值。学会理解这一点,坦然接受它,并尽量利用它来获得优势。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
• Wells Fargo’s chief investment officer of wealth and investment management, Darrell Cronk, shares 15 lessons for his younger self—it’s based on over thirty years of market musings.
Hitting a career milestone can often be a point of nostalgic reflection. One Wells Fargo executive is sharing some words of investment wisdom to celebrate 10 years in his top position at the Wall Street bank.
Wells Fargo’s chief investment officer of wealth and investment management, Darrell Cronk, just sent his clients a 15-point list of his market musings over decades, according to a copy obtained by Fortune.
Although he has climbed Wells Fargo’s ranks since 1992, according to his LinkedIn, the note marks the ten-year anniversary of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, an investment advisor and subsidiary of the bank—and Cronk has been its president since its inception.
It also came out shortly ahead of Wells Fargo’s earnings calls this morning, which positively reported the bank’s profits beating fourth-quarter expectations and shares surging by 3.5%.
“I hope at least a few of these principles will be useful for you, and useful for the generation of investors who follow,” Cronk wrote.
Advice for ruling the markets
When it comes to the ins and outs of the market, Cronk has over thirty years of experience.
As a seasoned investment leader, Cronk has learned to go all-in as a confident investor, view the markets as an “apex predator,” and become relevant in areas of growth to cash in. Cronk advises to grow comfortable with the fact that certainty is out the window, and be actively curious about uncharacteristic ways that the market diverges.
Here are his top seven tips for timing the market, investing with confidence, and working the markets to one’s best advantage.
• “Just because the market is efficient doesn’t mean it’s right.”
• “The best investment strategy can turn into the worst if you don’t have the resolve to see it through with discipline.”
• “Your level of confidence as an investor is inversely proportional to the amount of capital you have at risk in the market. Those who commit little are very confident. Those with much committed have the uneasiness to understand what can go wrong.”
• “Stay attuned to unusual market divergences, prices that move in counter-intuitive ways. They don’t always lead to great opportunities, but they are the places to start looking and asking: Why the divergence? What might it tell us?”
• “Often investors are reminded that, as powerful as we think central bankers or politicians may be, markets, like the lion on land and orca in the sea, are the ultimate apex predator. When things get out of balance, markets will often restore this balance quickly, savagely, and without regard to stability.”
• “The wisest investors dig to find out where growth resides and capital needs to go, and then they make sure they become relevant in that space.”
• “We need to remind ourselves as investors that historically the two best phases of a secular bull market have been the first 25% of its life, and the final 25%. (The middle 50% has often been mush.) Get those right, history tells us, and you can put yourself in position to capture much of the return the market offers.”
Advice for not letting your human emotions get the better of you
Sometimes it’s not the market getting in the way of big returns—it’s you. Sticking to the game plan and becoming comfortable by continually making safe choices is no way to work the markets, Cronk cautions. Here are his four top tips for making bold investment choices and not sabotaging your own potential.
• “Human beings are often emotional rather than objective investors. They tend to sell low and buy high, and at the time, they believe it to be for good reasons. It cannot be otherwise, or else they would not do it.”
• “Greed, hubris, leverage, illiquidity, and lack of imagination all lead to the inevitable. Each possesses a gravitational pull for investors. Each, in excess, leads to demise.”
• “Always believing the same rules apply is easy—and fraught with mistakes. Adapting to the conditions of today is what remains hard and yet rewarding.”
• “Don’t fear strength. One of the enduring lessons of this business is that your best ideas often reach and then blow through your targets much faster than you thought possible, while the bad ideas languish and frustrate and fizzle.”
Advice for investing novices
Some of the wisdom that Cronk shares could even be applied by “at-home” investors.
When it comes to understanding investing and the markets, Cronk hammers home the basics: giving attention to the initial objective, abandoning a mindset of certainty, and understanding that investing is about risk. That at the end of the day, no matter what prices the market trades at, it’s rarely at fair value.
• “The single most important consideration when investing is your starting point. It’s what drives your return, your risk, and the distance to your ultimate objective. Understand that, and half the battle is won.”
• “Investing is not about returns, although many mistake it to be. It’s about risk—understanding how much to take, how to calibrate it, how to manage it, and what is a good risk versus a bad risk to take. Returns are simply a byproduct of risks consumed.”
• “The illusion of certainty: Better to strive for conviction than certainty. Certainty lives in a world of absolutes. Conviction approaches markets with a high degree of humility. This requires asking questions, continuously testing our convictions, and recognizing that conditions and circumstances can and will change.”
• “Markets rarely trade at fair value. Most of the time, they trade at prices above or below their fair value fundamentals. Learn to understand this, get comfortable with it, and where possible use it to your advantage.”