
尼古拉·坦根(Nicolai Tangen)是全球最大的主权财富基金(规模达约1.8万亿美元)的掌舵者,他身边总是不乏急切的投资者,他们希望从他那里获得跑赢市场的建议。
尽管这些建议或许并非坦根本人必定遵循的准则,但他最新的投资建议是避免盲目跟风。
坦根在达沃斯论坛接受彭博社采访时表示:“最明智的做法往往是与他人背道而驰。”
“当下最明智的做法是什么呢?如果你打算逆流而动,那就减持美国科技股,买入中国股票,抛售私人信贷,只买那些过时的资产。”
坦根的这一最新观点并未反映在他的实际操作中。事实上,坦根及其所在的挪威央行投资管理公司(Norges Bank Investment Management)是美国科技股的坚定支持者。
截至去年6月,挪威央行投资管理公司所持有的美股七巨头股份总价值达1.9万亿挪威克朗,约合约1730亿美元。按价值计算,其最大的六笔股票投资均为美股七巨头的股票,同时它还持有特斯拉(Tesla)高达56亿美元的大额股份。去年,这家石油基金选择减持部分Meta股票。
挪威央行投资管理公司在其2024年的半年报告中称赞了科技股的表现,去年上半年科技股增长了27.9%。总而言之,科技股占该公司股权投资的四分之一。
在接受彭博社采访时,坦根确实承认,采取逆向投资策略就意味着要接受自己的投资策略有时会表现不佳,从而导致投资者质疑你的判断力。
不过,包括坦根本人在内的数位投资者都对美国热门股票潜在的科技泡沫风险发出了警告。
美股七巨头的市值约占标准普尔500指数总市值的三分之一,而其利润占该指数2024年盈利增长的四分之三。
11月,坦根在接受《金融时报》采访时警告称,由于生成式人工智能热潮,基于微芯片的股票市场将面临前所未有的高度集中风险。这一紧密的生态系统主要由英伟达(Nvidia)、阿斯麦(ASML)、台积电(TSMC)以及硅谷巨头等大公司构成。
“这种集中度确实令人深感忧虑。这意味着股市中潜藏着我们从未见过的风险。”坦根在《金融时报》的Unhedged播客节目中表示。
“因此,与它们有业务往来的公司数量极为有限,而这些大公司本身也在不断壮大,其重要性愈发凸显。”
至于坦根提及的另一个市场——中国,挪威央行投资管理公司在该国的投资规模相对较小,为3850亿挪威克朗(约合340亿美元)。该公司在中国的主要投资对象包括腾讯、阿里巴巴和拼多多。2024年上半年,其在中国的投资价值就增加了40亿美元。
2023年9月,出于运营方面的考量,该集团宣布将关闭其上海办事处,但表示此举不会影响其在中国的投资。该集团的上海办事处共有8名员工。
这家石油基金的最新投资极具英伦特色,这或许与他之前提出的“买入过时资产”的建议不谋而合。该集团宣布与威斯敏斯特公爵(Duke of Westminster)旗下的格罗夫纳集团(Grosvenor)合作,收购伦敦高档社区梅菲尔(Mayfair)175处房产。
该协议标志着格罗夫纳集团305年历史中最大的一笔外部投资。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
尼古拉·坦根(Nicolai Tangen)是全球最大的主权财富基金(规模达约1.8万亿美元)的掌舵者,他身边总是不乏急切的投资者,他们希望从他那里获得跑赢市场的建议。
尽管这些建议或许并非坦根本人必定遵循的准则,但他最新的投资建议是避免盲目跟风。
坦根在达沃斯论坛接受彭博社采访时表示:“最明智的做法往往是与他人背道而驰。”
“当下最明智的做法是什么呢?如果你打算逆流而动,那就减持美国科技股,买入中国股票,抛售私人信贷,只买那些过时的资产。”
坦根的这一最新观点并未反映在他的实际操作中。事实上,坦根及其所在的挪威央行投资管理公司(Norges Bank Investment Management)是美国科技股的坚定支持者。
截至去年6月,挪威央行投资管理公司所持有的美股七巨头股份总价值达1.9万亿挪威克朗,约合约1730亿美元。按价值计算,其最大的六笔股票投资均为美股七巨头的股票,同时它还持有特斯拉(Tesla)高达56亿美元的大额股份。去年,这家石油基金选择减持部分Meta股票。
挪威央行投资管理公司在其2024年的半年报告中称赞了科技股的表现,去年上半年科技股增长了27.9%。总而言之,科技股占该公司股权投资的四分之一。
在接受彭博社采访时,坦根确实承认,采取逆向投资策略就意味着要接受自己的投资策略有时会表现不佳,从而导致投资者质疑你的判断力。
不过,包括坦根本人在内的数位投资者都对美国热门股票潜在的科技泡沫风险发出了警告。
美股七巨头的市值约占标准普尔500指数总市值的三分之一,而其利润占该指数2024年盈利增长的四分之三。
11月,坦根在接受《金融时报》采访时警告称,由于生成式人工智能热潮,基于微芯片的股票市场将面临前所未有的高度集中风险。这一紧密的生态系统主要由英伟达(Nvidia)、阿斯麦(ASML)、台积电(TSMC)以及硅谷巨头等大公司构成。
“这种集中度确实令人深感忧虑。这意味着股市中潜藏着我们从未见过的风险。”坦根在《金融时报》的Unhedged播客节目中表示。
“因此,与它们有业务往来的公司数量极为有限,而这些大公司本身也在不断壮大,其重要性愈发凸显。”
至于坦根提及的另一个市场——中国,挪威央行投资管理公司在该国的投资规模相对较小,为3850亿挪威克朗(约合340亿美元)。该公司在中国的主要投资对象包括腾讯、阿里巴巴和拼多多。2024年上半年,其在中国的投资价值就增加了40亿美元。
2023年9月,出于运营方面的考量,该集团宣布将关闭其上海办事处,但表示此举不会影响其在中国的投资。该集团的上海办事处共有8名员工。
这家石油基金的最新投资极具英伦特色,这或许与他之前提出的“买入过时资产”的建议不谋而合。该集团宣布与威斯敏斯特公爵(Duke of Westminster)旗下的格罗夫纳集团(Grosvenor)合作,收购伦敦高档社区梅菲尔(Mayfair)175处房产。
该协议标志着格罗夫纳集团305年历史中最大的一笔外部投资。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Nicolai Tangen, the boss of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, worth around $1.8 trillion, is never far away from an eager investor keen for advice on how to beat the market.
While it may not be advice he is necessarily following himself, Tangen’s latest tip is to diverge from the crowd.
“The best thing to do is always to do the opposite of everybody else,” Tangen told Bloomberg in an interview at Davos.
“What will that be today? Well, if you were to do the opposite of everybody else, it would be to sell the US tech stocks, buy China, sell private credit, just buy stuff that is out of fashion.”
Tangen’s latest tidbit isn’t exactly a case of practicing what you preach. Indeed, Tangen and the Norges Investment Bank are among U.S. tech stocks’ biggest fans.
As of June last year, Norges Bank Investment Management owned 1.9 trillion Norwegian krone in the Magnificent Seven stocks, or around $173 billion. Its six largest equity investments by value are all Magnificent Seven stocks, while it also owns a sizeable $5.6 billion stake in Tesla. The oil fund opted to shed some of its stake in Meta last year.
In its half-year report for 2024, Norges Bank praised the performance of tech stocks, which grew by 27.9% in the first half of the year. In total, tech stocks account for a quarter of the company’s equity investments.
In his interview with Bloomberg, Tangen did admit that taking a contrarian approach to investing meant accepting that your investing strategy would underperform at times, leading to investors questioning your sanity.
Several investors, though, have warned about the risks of a potential tech bubble in popular U.S. stocks, including Tangen himself.
The Magnificent Seven stocks make up around a third of the S&P 500’s value, while its profits accounted for three-quarters of the index’s earnings growth in 2024.
Speaking to the Financial Times in November, Tangen warned of unprecedented concentration risks in equity markets based on microchips following the Gen AI boom. Major companies, including Nvidia, ASML, TSMC, and the Silicon Valley giants, make up this cozy ecosystem.
“The concentration is absolutely worrying. It means that there is a risk in the stock market which we have never seen before,” Tangen told the FT’s Unhedged podcast.
“So there are very few companies tied into them, and they are getting bigger and bigger and more and more important.”
As for China, the other market that Tangen namedropped, Norges has a relatively small 385 billion Norwegian krone ($34 billion) stake in the country. The bank’s biggest investments in the country include Tencent, Alibaba, and PDD. The value of its investments in China rose by $4 billion in the first half of 2024.
In September 2023, the group announced it would be closing its Shanghai office, citing operational considerations that wouldn’t affect its investments in China. The group employed eight people in the Shanghai office.
The oil fund’s latest investment is a very British affair, and could align with his advice to buy what is out of fashion. The group announced a joint partnership with the Duke of Westminster-owned Grosvenor for 175 properties in the exclusive London neighborhood of Mayfair.
The agreement marks the largest outside investment in Grosvernor’s 305-year history.