
• 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在就职典礼前几天发行了自己的网红币$TRUMP。金融学教授伦纳德·考斯托文斯基对《财富》杂志表示,这款网红币80%由特朗普集团(Trump Organization)的附属公司持有,如果这些公司突然出售网红币,将以投资者的利益为代价,让总统赚得盆满钵满。
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周发行了自己的网红币$TRUMP,这让他几乎在一夜之间变成了加密货币亿万富翁。但一位金融专家表示,如果特朗普集团的附属公司CIC Digital和CIC共同控股的Fight Fight Fight有限责任公司决定出售它们所持有的80%的代币,特朗普的财富将暴涨,但投资者会蒙受损失。
特朗普于1月17日发行了自己的网红币,并且在他就职后的几天内,这款网红币的价值从不到10美元飙升至高达74.59美元,市值接近150亿美元。尽管随后其价值减半至约39美元,但根据巴鲁克学院(Baruch College)齐克林商学院(Zicklin School of Business)金融学副教授伦纳德·考斯托文斯基的说法,如果特朗普集团的附属公司出售其持有的网红币,特朗普的财富实际上可能翻两番。
特朗普集团是特朗普家族开展经营活动的实体,该集团发布了一项道德协议,禁止特朗普在其总统任期内参与“日常”经营活动。
总统在网红币中的实际利益,引发了对利益冲突和特朗普承诺在第二任期内加强加密货币合法性的担忧。但最令人担忧的是,如果特朗普突然将网红币变现,特朗普集团对网红币的主要所有权对投资者意味着什么。
考斯托文斯基对《财富》杂志表示:“对投资者而言,这当然是一个巨大的警告信号。除了其他人愿意为其支付的价格以外,所有网红币都没有任何实际价值。它们是纯粹的泡沫。”
特朗普集团已经实时看到了这种情况。$TRUMP发行两天后,特朗普推出了第一夫人的网红币$MELANIA。不久之后,特朗普的代币就暴跌至每股约40美元。
特朗普-万斯过渡团队没有立即回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
拉地毯骗局的风险
考斯托文斯基表示,尽管代币价格几乎立即暴跌,但特朗普集团仍愿意发行其他家庭成员的网红币,这表明存在拉地毯骗局的可能性,即该集团愿意通过抬高代币的价值以出售持有的代币获利,而这种情况通常以其他投资者的利益为代价。
考斯托文斯基表示:“已经有人认为,他们希望将这些代币变现。他们会想要尽快从中获得尽可能多的现金,而不是慢慢操作,让投资者的代币能够吸收任何新代币带来的流动性。”
内部人士和主要利益相关者是这种拉地毯骗局的受益者。上个月,TikTok网红哈莉·韦尔奇(也被称为“Hawk Tuah女孩”)发行了一种网红币,市值一度达到近5亿美元,但一周后暴跌了95%。一小部分内部人士从价格飙升中获利300万美元,而散户投资者则损失惨重。
这些不受监管的代币的推广者存在陷入法律泥潭的风险。2022年10月,金·卡戴珊被指控在社交媒体上宣传加密货币但未披露她所获得的报酬,向证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)支付了126万美元和解金。一项诉讼指控卡戴珊和其他名人宣传一款代币,抬高其价值,构成了“泡沫炒作”骗局,目的是在投资者出售代币之前抬高价格。
避免尴尬
考斯托文斯基建议,特朗普有充分的理由避免类似的“泡沫炒作”骗局。总统持有网红币的主要风险并非来自财务方面,而是在信誉方面。如果特朗普的代币崩盘,这会产生糟糕的影响。
特朗普网红币的表现作为一个量化指标,可以衡量追随者对总统的信心。特朗普网红币的网站表示,购买$TRUMP是一种对总统表达支持的方式,而不是投资机会。如果$TRUMP代币的价值因大规模抛售而进一步崩溃,这可能给民众对特朗普任期的信心产生不良影响。
考斯托文斯基表示:“鉴于特朗普对任何与其表现或财富有关的事情都非常敏感,这可能会让他感到尴尬。”
加密货币的合法性
特朗普网红币价格的突然抛售也会对加密货币圈产生影响。在竞选期间,特朗普承诺将美国打造成“世界加密货币之都”,并创建一个目前由政府持有的比特币“战略储备”。
特朗普大量持有自己的网红币可能会破坏与加密货币支持者的关系。如果特朗普出售他所持有的网红币,随后获得数十亿美元的收益,这将提供证据,证明加密货币就是个骗局。
商业管理咨询公司StoneTurn的合伙人凯拉·柯利对CNN表示:“通常情况下,任何网红币的发行都会让那些认真对待加密货币的使用、合法性和安全性的人感到不满。”然而,她表示,特朗普持有网红币与他监管加密货币的愿望并不矛盾。
相反,考斯托文斯基表示,如果为了表示对特朗普的支持而诞生的网红币激增,并引导更多的追随者进入加密货币领域,这对总统来说是个好消息。
他表示:“加密货币圈的大多数传统观念认为,这并不是好事,但情况也可能会更糟糕。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
• 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在就职典礼前几天发行了自己的网红币$TRUMP。金融学教授伦纳德·考斯托文斯基对《财富》杂志表示,这款网红币80%由特朗普集团(Trump Organization)的附属公司持有,如果这些公司突然出售网红币,将以投资者的利益为代价,让总统赚得盆满钵满。
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周发行了自己的网红币$TRUMP,这让他几乎在一夜之间变成了加密货币亿万富翁。但一位金融专家表示,如果特朗普集团的附属公司CIC Digital和CIC共同控股的Fight Fight Fight有限责任公司决定出售它们所持有的80%的代币,特朗普的财富将暴涨,但投资者会蒙受损失。
特朗普于1月17日发行了自己的网红币,并且在他就职后的几天内,这款网红币的价值从不到10美元飙升至高达74.59美元,市值接近150亿美元。尽管随后其价值减半至约39美元,但根据巴鲁克学院(Baruch College)齐克林商学院(Zicklin School of Business)金融学副教授伦纳德·考斯托文斯基的说法,如果特朗普集团的附属公司出售其持有的网红币,特朗普的财富实际上可能翻两番。
特朗普集团是特朗普家族开展经营活动的实体,该集团发布了一项道德协议,禁止特朗普在其总统任期内参与“日常”经营活动。
总统在网红币中的实际利益,引发了对利益冲突和特朗普承诺在第二任期内加强加密货币合法性的担忧。但最令人担忧的是,如果特朗普突然将网红币变现,特朗普集团对网红币的主要所有权对投资者意味着什么。
考斯托文斯基对《财富》杂志表示:“对投资者而言,这当然是一个巨大的警告信号。除了其他人愿意为其支付的价格以外,所有网红币都没有任何实际价值。它们是纯粹的泡沫。”
特朗普集团已经实时看到了这种情况。$TRUMP发行两天后,特朗普推出了第一夫人的网红币$MELANIA。不久之后,特朗普的代币就暴跌至每股约40美元。
特朗普-万斯过渡团队没有立即回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
拉地毯骗局的风险
考斯托文斯基表示,尽管代币价格几乎立即暴跌,但特朗普集团仍愿意发行其他家庭成员的网红币,这表明存在拉地毯骗局的可能性,即该集团愿意通过抬高代币的价值以出售持有的代币获利,而这种情况通常以其他投资者的利益为代价。
考斯托文斯基表示:“已经有人认为,他们希望将这些代币变现。他们会想要尽快从中获得尽可能多的现金,而不是慢慢操作,让投资者的代币能够吸收任何新代币带来的流动性。”
内部人士和主要利益相关者是这种拉地毯骗局的受益者。上个月,TikTok网红哈莉·韦尔奇(也被称为“Hawk Tuah女孩”)发行了一种网红币,市值一度达到近5亿美元,但一周后暴跌了95%。一小部分内部人士从价格飙升中获利300万美元,而散户投资者则损失惨重。
这些不受监管的代币的推广者存在陷入法律泥潭的风险。2022年10月,金·卡戴珊被指控在社交媒体上宣传加密货币但未披露她所获得的报酬,向证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)支付了126万美元和解金。一项诉讼指控卡戴珊和其他名人宣传一款代币,抬高其价值,构成了“泡沫炒作”骗局,目的是在投资者出售代币之前抬高价格。
避免尴尬
考斯托文斯基建议,特朗普有充分的理由避免类似的“泡沫炒作”骗局。总统持有网红币的主要风险并非来自财务方面,而是在信誉方面。如果特朗普的代币崩盘,这会产生糟糕的影响。
特朗普网红币的表现作为一个量化指标,可以衡量追随者对总统的信心。特朗普网红币的网站表示,购买$TRUMP是一种对总统表达支持的方式,而不是投资机会。如果$TRUMP代币的价值因大规模抛售而进一步崩溃,这可能给民众对特朗普任期的信心产生不良影响。
考斯托文斯基表示:“鉴于特朗普对任何与其表现或财富有关的事情都非常敏感,这可能会让他感到尴尬。”
加密货币的合法性
特朗普网红币价格的突然抛售也会对加密货币圈产生影响。在竞选期间,特朗普承诺将美国打造成“世界加密货币之都”,并创建一个目前由政府持有的比特币“战略储备”。
特朗普大量持有自己的网红币可能会破坏与加密货币支持者的关系。如果特朗普出售他所持有的网红币,随后获得数十亿美元的收益,这将提供证据,证明加密货币就是个骗局。
商业管理咨询公司StoneTurn的合伙人凯拉·柯利对CNN表示:“通常情况下,任何网红币的发行都会让那些认真对待加密货币的使用、合法性和安全性的人感到不满。”然而,她表示,特朗普持有网红币与他监管加密货币的愿望并不矛盾。
相反,考斯托文斯基表示,如果为了表示对特朗普的支持而诞生的网红币激增,并引导更多的追随者进入加密货币领域,这对总统来说是个好消息。
他表示:“加密货币圈的大多数传统观念认为,这并不是好事,但情况也可能会更糟糕。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
• President Donald Trump launched his memecoin $TRUMP days before his inauguration. If affiliates of the Trump Organization, which owns 80% of the coin, suddenly sell their shares, it would pad the president’s pockets at the expense of investors, finance professor Leonard Kostovetsky told Fortune.
President Donald Trump’s launch of his memecoin $TRUMP last week made him a crypto billionaire nearly overnight. But should CIC Digital, an affiliate of the Trump Organization, and CIC co-owned Fight Fight Fight LLC decide to sell their 80% stake in the token, it would skyrocket Trump’s wealth—and pull the rug out from investors, one finance expert said.
Trump launched his own memecoin on Jan. 17, and within days of his inauguration the value of the coin rallied from less than $10 to as high as $74.59, with a market capitalization nearing $15 billion. Though the value has since come down to earth—its share price has halved to around $39—if the Trump Organization’s affiliates were to sell their shares of the coin, Trump’s wealth could effectively quadruple, according to Leonard Kostovetsky, associate professor of finance at Baruch College’s Zicklin School of Business.
The Trump Organization, the entity under which the family conducts business, released an ethics agreement preventing Trump from participating in “day-to-day” business activities during his presidency.
The president’s effective stake in the coin has raised concerns about conflicts of interest and the legitimacy of cryptocurrency Trump promised to reinforce during his second term. But chief among the worries is what the Trump Organization’s predominant ownership would mean for investors if Trump were to suddenly cash out on the memecoin.
“In terms of investors, of course there’s a huge red flag,” Kostovetsky told Fortune. “All of these memecoins don’t really have any value beyond just what other people are willing to pay for them. They’re pure bubbles.”
The Trump Organization has already seen this happening in real time. Two days after launching $TRUMP, Trump introduced the first lady’s memecoin $MELANIA. Trump’s token plunged to about $40 a share shortly after.
The Trump-Vance transition team did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
The risk of a rug pull
Kostovetsky said the fact the Trump Organization was willing to introduce memecoins of other family members—despite the near-immediate nosedive of the token’s share prices—indicates the possibility of a rug pull, or a willingness to inflate the value of a token in order to sell shares and profit, often as the expense of other investors.
“There’s already some idea that they’re going to want to monetize this,” Kostovetsky said. “They’re going to want to, as quickly as possible, get as much money out of this as possible, rather than kind of slow play it and allow, for investors, the coins to be able to absorb the liquidity from any new coins coming on.”
Insiders and major stakeholders are the ones who benefit from these rug pulls. Last month, viral TikTok star Hailey Welch, also known as the “Hawk Tuah girl,” launched a memecoin that peaked at nearly $500 million, only to collapse 95% a week later. A small group of insiders pocketed $3 million from the spike, while retail investors got squeezed.
Promoters of these unregulated tokens risk entering muddy legal waters. In October 2022, Kim Kardashian paid the Securities and Exchange Commission $1.26 million to settle charges alleging she promoted the cryptocurrency on social media without disclosing how much she was paid to do so. A lawsuit alleged Kardashian’s and other celebrities’ promotion of the token inflated its value as part of a “pump and dump” scheme to inflate its share price before investors sold it.
Avoiding embarrassment
There’s good reason for Trump to avoid a similar pump-and-dump situation, Kostovestsky suggested. The president’s predominant risk in memecoin ownership is not financial, but rather reputational. If Trump’s token crashes, it’s a bad look.
The performance of Trump’s memecoins are a quantitative measure of followers’ confidence in the president. The Trump memecoin website says scooping up $TRUMP shares is a means of showing support for the president and is not an investment opportunity. If the value of $TRUMP were to further collapse as a result of a massive sell-off, it could reflect poorly on broader confidence in Trump’s term.
“Given how he’s very sensitive to anything that pertains to his performance or his wealth,” Kostovetsky said, “it could potentially be embarrassing for him.”
The legitimacy of crypto
The sudden sell-off of Trump’s memecoin will also have repercussions on the crypto community. On the campaign trail, Trump promised to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world” and create a “strategic reserve” of Bitcoin currently held by the government.
Trump’s hefty ownership of his own memecoin may sour the relationship with crypto proponents. If Trump were to sell his stake in his memecoin, subsequently gaining billions of dollars, it would provide evidence that crypto is a scam.
“Generally, the introduction of any meme coin ruffles the feathers of those who are serious about the use, legitimacy and security of crypto,” Kyla Curley, partner at business management consultancy StoneTurn, told CNN. However, Trump’s stake in memecoins isn’t mutually exclusive with his desire to regulate crypto, she said.
Conversely, a proliferation of memecoins produced for the purpose of showing support of Trump would be good news for the president if it introduced more of his followers to crypto, Kostovetsky said.
“The majority of conventional wisdom in the crypto community is that it’s not great, but could be worse,” he said.