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新冠疫情期间的楼市泡沫正在破裂,美国保守将房价下跌15%

新冠疫情期间的楼市泡沫正在破裂,美国保守将房价下跌15%

Lance Lambert 2022-11-21
如果美国房价真的下跌15%,这就将是二战后第二大房价回调。

2020年,白领人士没过多久就意识到,日益普及的居家办公政策意味着他们几乎能够在任何地方购买房地产。度假区房地产市场大热。远郊也变得炙手可热,博伊西等所谓的“房价飙升小镇”也是如此。即便是纽约和旧金山等人口流失大都市,也变得过热,这是因为“室友脱钩”产生了从租赁市场向住房市场的溢出效应。

新冠疫情期间的房地产热潮(Pandemic Housing Boom)恰好与2020年3月至2022年6月期间美国房价惊人地上涨了42%相吻合。据旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的研究人员估计,其中至少60%的升值可以归因于新冠疫情期间对“空间”的需求上升。

当然,这种需求热潮并没有消退——它正在做180度的大调整:购房抵押贷款申请同比下降了41%。实际上,现在的购房申请比2008年金融危机的低点还低。

需求的迅速回落也让更多的经济学家说出了房地产领域里最令人担忧的词:泡沫。

毕马威(KPMG)的首席经济学家黛安娜·斯旺克说:“这是一场由新冠疫情引发的(房地产)泡沫,居家办公的人口迁移趋势助长了这一泡沫:高薪员工为了更多的空间而前往房价较低的二线中端市场。居家办公走到极端(刺激住房需求),但它基本上戛然而止了。我认为这也是房价下跌的部分原因。当地居民的收入并不足以支撑高房价。”

我们已经看到全国范围内房价下跌。今年6月至8月,凯斯-席勒全国房价指数(Case-Shiller National Home Index)显示,美国房价下跌了1.3%。这是自2012年以来的首次下降。

斯旺克称:“全国范围内房价一旦开始下跌,这种势头就会持续下去,因为没有人想要徒手接飞刀。我们很容易看到两位数的大跌幅。我认为明年15%的跌幅是非常保守的估计。房价已经由涨转跌。”

当《财富》杂志首创“新冠疫情期间房地产热潮”一词时,我们知道,如果这种繁荣以泡沫破裂告终,我们就将不得不把其重新命名为“新冠疫情期间房地产泡沫”(Pandemic Housing Bubble)。我们甚至为它设定了一个标准:任何市场如果出现从峰值到谷底的跌幅超过10%的情况,就都会被贴上“新冠疫情期间房地产泡沫”的标签。如果毕马威的预测成真,整个国家就都将被贴上“泡沫”的标签。

以下是《财富》杂志从对斯旺克的采访中得出的四大要点。

飙升的抵押贷款利率戳破了“泡沫”

每当美联储(Federal Reserve)进入加息模式,就会给美国住房市场等利率敏感行业带来麻烦。当这些加息举措因为央行在对抗通胀方面落后而变得激进时,那么房地产市场受到的冲击就会更严重。

当然,这也正是我们在2022年看到的情况。美联储的货币紧缩政策使美国30年期固定利率抵押贷款平均利率在过去一年中从2.98%飙升至7.1%。这是自1981年时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克臭名昭著的紧缩政策以来对抵押贷款利率最大的冲击。

对抵押贷款利率的冲击之所以重要,有两大原因。首先,历史低位的抵押贷款利率——这也是推动新冠疫情期间房地产热潮的因素之一——已经不复存在。其次,抵押贷款利率飙升意味着许多潜在购房者要么因为高房价而望而却步,要么完全失去了抵押贷款资格。

房价正在下跌——但这不是2008年发生的情况

如果美国房价真的下跌15%,这就将是二战后第二大房价回调。只有2006年至2012年27%的回调才能超过此次回调。

尽管如此,美联储表示,这并不是2008年金融危机的重演。

“从金融稳定的角度来看,我们在这个周期中没有看到金融危机之前那种不良的信贷承销情况。贷款机构对住房信贷的管理要谨慎得多。[在2022年]情况完全不同,不存在潜在趋势,也不存在金融稳定问题。但我们确实明白,我们实施的政策会对[住房]产生很大影响。”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在本月早些时候告诉记者。

斯旺克同意鲍威尔的观点:“这不是一场次贷危机,在这一点上,他们(美联储)是正确的。”

然而,尽管贷款标准的提高和供应紧缩应该会防止2008年的情况重演,但它们还不足以防止房地产市场的修正。至少斯旺克是这样认为的。

斯旺克表示:“对我来说,有趣的是,在库存仍然非常紧张的情况下,其中一些市场的修正速度是如此之快。”

菲尼克斯住房市场充满泡沫——芝加哥住房市场泡沫情况相对乐观

正如《财富》杂志此前指出的那样,教科书上对房地产泡沫的定义需要满足三个条件。首先,旺盛的需求——在投机活动的推动下——涌入房地产市场。其次,房价飙升远远超过了收入所能够承受的水平,达到了“估值过高”的水平。第三,房地产市场泡沫破裂,房价下跌。

新冠疫情期间房地产热潮见证了“投资者狂热”的回归。历史低位的抵押贷款利率吸引了房东夫妻和爱彼迎(Airbnb)的房东。受创纪录的房价升值水平吸引,短期炒房客也进入了市场。事实上,根据ATTOM数据,在2022年第一季度,共有114,706套房屋被“转手”。这比2008年泡沫之前的任何一个季度都要高。这是投机活动吗?是的。

每个季度,穆迪分析公司都会为大约400个市场计算出被“高估”或“低估”的数值。该公司旨在找出包括当地收入水平在内的基本面因素是否可以支撑当地房价。只有当房地产市场被严重“高估”时,才会令人不安。在2022年第二季度,典型的市场被“高估”了23%。这高于2019年第二季度的3%,也高于2006年第二季度的14%。这属于估值过高吗?是的。

尽管在新冠疫情期间,造成房地产市场泡沫的前两个因素确实出现了,但第三个因素尚未出现。斯旺克表示,这种“破裂”已经开始,但会因市场而异。

斯旺克认为破裂会有所不同的原因是什么?一些市场的泡沫比其他市场多得多。

例如,看看芝加哥和菲尼克斯的情况就知道了。上一次,这两个市场都经历了繁荣和萧条。鉴于在2006年,芝加哥和菲尼克斯分别被“高估”了32%和48%,原因一目了然。然而,这次菲尼克斯(现在被“高估”了54%)有大量投机者和外地买家涌入,而芝加哥(现在被“高估”了3%)仍然相对温和。

展望未来,房地产经济学家预计,像菲尼克斯这样的市场将面临更高的房价下跌风险。事实上,穆迪分析公司目前预测,充满泡沫的菲尼克斯住房市场从峰值到谷底的跌幅达18.7%。在芝加哥,该分析公司预计房价只会下降3.6%。

房价下跌对美联储有利

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示,美国房地产市场正处于“艰难的修正中”。一旦修正完成,买家和卖家就都将回到一个“重置”的市场。

言外之意是,一些经济学家认为“重置”意味着“房价将下跌”。

“让我们面对现实吧,目前通胀的最大推手之一是什么?是住房成本。这也是他们(美联储)最有权力的地方。”斯旺克说。“所以,是的,过去,房价出现了惊人的上涨。但上涨是不可持续的——需要进行某种形式的修正。问题出在你无法选择修正的幅度。”

斯旺克表示,房价的温和修正将有助于美联储控制住房成本和整体通胀水平。在这种情况下,买家可能会回到价格较低、库存较多、抵押贷款利率较低的市场。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

2020年,白领人士没过多久就意识到,日益普及的居家办公政策意味着他们几乎能够在任何地方购买房地产。度假区房地产市场大热。远郊也变得炙手可热,博伊西等所谓的“房价飙升小镇”也是如此。即便是纽约和旧金山等人口流失大都市,也变得过热,这是因为“室友脱钩”产生了从租赁市场向住房市场的溢出效应。

新冠疫情期间的房地产热潮(Pandemic Housing Boom)恰好与2020年3月至2022年6月期间美国房价惊人地上涨了42%相吻合。据旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的研究人员估计,其中至少60%的升值可以归因于新冠疫情期间对“空间”的需求上升。

当然,这种需求热潮并没有消退——它正在做180度的大调整:购房抵押贷款申请同比下降了41%。实际上,现在的购房申请比2008年金融危机的低点还低。

需求的迅速回落也让更多的经济学家说出了房地产领域里最令人担忧的词:泡沫。

毕马威(KPMG)的首席经济学家黛安娜·斯旺克说:“这是一场由新冠疫情引发的(房地产)泡沫,居家办公的人口迁移趋势助长了这一泡沫:高薪员工为了更多的空间而前往房价较低的二线中端市场。居家办公走到极端(刺激住房需求),但它基本上戛然而止了。我认为这也是房价下跌的部分原因。当地居民的收入并不足以支撑高房价。”

我们已经看到全国范围内房价下跌。今年6月至8月,凯斯-席勒全国房价指数(Case-Shiller National Home Index)显示,美国房价下跌了1.3%。这是自2012年以来的首次下降。

斯旺克称:“全国范围内房价一旦开始下跌,这种势头就会持续下去,因为没有人想要徒手接飞刀。我们很容易看到两位数的大跌幅。我认为明年15%的跌幅是非常保守的估计。房价已经由涨转跌。”

当《财富》杂志首创“新冠疫情期间房地产热潮”一词时,我们知道,如果这种繁荣以泡沫破裂告终,我们就将不得不把其重新命名为“新冠疫情期间房地产泡沫”(Pandemic Housing Bubble)。我们甚至为它设定了一个标准:任何市场如果出现从峰值到谷底的跌幅超过10%的情况,就都会被贴上“新冠疫情期间房地产泡沫”的标签。如果毕马威的预测成真,整个国家就都将被贴上“泡沫”的标签。

以下是《财富》杂志从对斯旺克的采访中得出的四大要点。

飙升的抵押贷款利率戳破了“泡沫”

每当美联储(Federal Reserve)进入加息模式,就会给美国住房市场等利率敏感行业带来麻烦。当这些加息举措因为央行在对抗通胀方面落后而变得激进时,那么房地产市场受到的冲击就会更严重。

当然,这也正是我们在2022年看到的情况。美联储的货币紧缩政策使美国30年期固定利率抵押贷款平均利率在过去一年中从2.98%飙升至7.1%。这是自1981年时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克臭名昭著的紧缩政策以来对抵押贷款利率最大的冲击。

对抵押贷款利率的冲击之所以重要,有两大原因。首先,历史低位的抵押贷款利率——这也是推动新冠疫情期间房地产热潮的因素之一——已经不复存在。其次,抵押贷款利率飙升意味着许多潜在购房者要么因为高房价而望而却步,要么完全失去了抵押贷款资格。

房价正在下跌——但这不是2008年发生的情况

如果美国房价真的下跌15%,这就将是二战后第二大房价回调。只有2006年至2012年27%的回调才能超过此次回调。

尽管如此,美联储表示,这并不是2008年金融危机的重演。

“从金融稳定的角度来看,我们在这个周期中没有看到金融危机之前那种不良的信贷承销情况。贷款机构对住房信贷的管理要谨慎得多。[在2022年]情况完全不同,不存在潜在趋势,也不存在金融稳定问题。但我们确实明白,我们实施的政策会对[住房]产生很大影响。”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在本月早些时候告诉记者。

斯旺克同意鲍威尔的观点:“这不是一场次贷危机,在这一点上,他们(美联储)是正确的。”

然而,尽管贷款标准的提高和供应紧缩应该会防止2008年的情况重演,但它们还不足以防止房地产市场的修正。至少斯旺克是这样认为的。

斯旺克表示:“对我来说,有趣的是,在库存仍然非常紧张的情况下,其中一些市场的修正速度是如此之快。”

菲尼克斯住房市场充满泡沫——芝加哥住房市场泡沫情况相对乐观

正如《财富》杂志此前指出的那样,教科书上对房地产泡沫的定义需要满足三个条件。首先,旺盛的需求——在投机活动的推动下——涌入房地产市场。其次,房价飙升远远超过了收入所能够承受的水平,达到了“估值过高”的水平。第三,房地产市场泡沫破裂,房价下跌。

新冠疫情期间房地产热潮见证了“投资者狂热”的回归。历史低位的抵押贷款利率吸引了房东夫妻和爱彼迎(Airbnb)的房东。受创纪录的房价升值水平吸引,短期炒房客也进入了市场。事实上,根据ATTOM数据,在2022年第一季度,共有114,706套房屋被“转手”。这比2008年泡沫之前的任何一个季度都要高。这是投机活动吗?是的。

每个季度,穆迪分析公司都会为大约400个市场计算出被“高估”或“低估”的数值。该公司旨在找出包括当地收入水平在内的基本面因素是否可以支撑当地房价。只有当房地产市场被严重“高估”时,才会令人不安。在2022年第二季度,典型的市场被“高估”了23%。这高于2019年第二季度的3%,也高于2006年第二季度的14%。这属于估值过高吗?是的。

尽管在新冠疫情期间,造成房地产市场泡沫的前两个因素确实出现了,但第三个因素尚未出现。斯旺克表示,这种“破裂”已经开始,但会因市场而异。

斯旺克认为破裂会有所不同的原因是什么?一些市场的泡沫比其他市场多得多。

例如,看看芝加哥和菲尼克斯的情况就知道了。上一次,这两个市场都经历了繁荣和萧条。鉴于在2006年,芝加哥和菲尼克斯分别被“高估”了32%和48%,原因一目了然。然而,这次菲尼克斯(现在被“高估”了54%)有大量投机者和外地买家涌入,而芝加哥(现在被“高估”了3%)仍然相对温和。

展望未来,房地产经济学家预计,像菲尼克斯这样的市场将面临更高的房价下跌风险。事实上,穆迪分析公司目前预测,充满泡沫的菲尼克斯住房市场从峰值到谷底的跌幅达18.7%。在芝加哥,该分析公司预计房价只会下降3.6%。

房价下跌对美联储有利

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示,美国房地产市场正处于“艰难的修正中”。一旦修正完成,买家和卖家就都将回到一个“重置”的市场。

言外之意是,一些经济学家认为“重置”意味着“房价将下跌”。

“让我们面对现实吧,目前通胀的最大推手之一是什么?是住房成本。这也是他们(美联储)最有权力的地方。”斯旺克说。“所以,是的,过去,房价出现了惊人的上涨。但上涨是不可持续的——需要进行某种形式的修正。问题出在你无法选择修正的幅度。”

斯旺克表示,房价的温和修正将有助于美联储控制住房成本和整体通胀水平。在这种情况下,买家可能会回到价格较低、库存较多、抵押贷款利率较低的市场。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

It didn’t take long for white-collar professionals in 2020 to realize that expanded work-from-home policies meant they could buy real estate pretty much anywhere. Vacation markets went gangbusters. Exurbs got red-hot, as did so-called “Zoom towns” like Boise. Even big cities that were losing residents, like New York and San Francisco, got overheated as decoupling roommates created a spillover effect from the rental market into the housing market.

That Pandemic Housing Boom coincided with a staggering 42% jump in U.S. home prices between March 2020 and June 2022. At least 60% of that appreciation, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimate, can be attributed to the elevated demand for “space” that occurred during the pandemic.

Of course, that demand boom hasn’t just fizzled out—it’s doing a 180: On a year-over-year basis, mortgage purchase applications are down 41%. There’s actually fewer purchase applications now than at the bottom of the 2008 crash.

This swift pullback in demand also has more economists uttering the most feared word in housing: Bubble.

“It was a pandemic-induced [housing] bubble, which was stoked by work-from-home migration trends: High wage workers going to lower second tier middle markets for more space,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “We went to an extreme on WFH [spurred housing demand], but it has pretty much abruptly ended. It is part of the reason I think you’re seeing housing prices fall as well. The local incomes don’t support a lot of these home values.”

We’ve already seen home price growth rollover on a national basis. Between June and August, the Case-Shiller National Home Index showed a 1.3% drop in U.S. home prices. That marks the first decline since 2012.

“Once you start the process of prices falling nationally, there is a self-fulfilling momentum to it because no one wants to catch a falling knife,” Swonk says. “We’re easily going to see large double-digits declines. I think 15% next year is very conservative. We’re already turning.”

When Fortune coined the term Pandemic Housing Boom, we did so knowing that if the boom concluded in a bust, we’d have to relabel it a Pandemic Housing Bubble. We even set a criteria for it: Any market that sees a greater than 10% peak-to-trough decline gets the Pandemic Housing Bubble label. If KPMG’s prediction comes to fruition, the entire country would get our “bubble” label.

Here are the four big takeaways from Fortune’s chat with Swonk.

Spiked mortgage rates popped the “bubble”

Whenever the Federal Reserve flips into rate hiking mode, it's going to spell trouble for rate sensitive sectors like the U.S. housing market. When those rate hikes turn aggressive because the central bank fell behind on its inflation-fight, it'll be that much more intense.

Of course, that's exactly what we've seen in 2022. The Fed's monetary tightening has seen the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate spike over the past year from 2.98% to 7.1%. That marks the biggest mortgage rate shock since Fed Chair Paul Volcker's infamous tightening in 1981.

That mortgage rate shock matters for two reasons. First, historically low mortgage rates—which also helped to power the Pandemic Housing Boom—are gone. Second, the spike means many would-be buyers have either been priced out or lost their mortgage altogether.

Home prices are falling—but it isn't the 2008 story

If U.S. home prices actually fall 15%, it'd mark the second biggest home price correction of the post-World War II era. Only the 27% correction between 2006 and 2012 would have it beat.

That said, the Federal Reserve says this isn't a repeat of the 2008 crisis.

"From a financial stability standpoint, we didn't see in this cycle the kinds of poor underwriting credit that we saw before the Great Financial Crisis. Housing credit was much more carefully managed by the lenders. It's a very different situation [in 2022], it doesn't present potential, [well] it doesn't appear to present financial stability issues. But we do understand that [housing] is where a very big effect of our policies is," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters earlier this month.

Swonk agrees with Powell: "This is not a subprime crisis, they're [the fed] right about that."

However, while improved lending standards and tight supply should prevent a 2008 repeat, they aren't enough to prevent a housing correction. At least that's how Swonk sees it.

"The interesting thing to me is how quickly some of these markets are correcting with still very tight inventories," Swonk says.

Phoenix is very bubbly—Chicago not so much

As Fortune has previously noted, the textbook definition of a housing bubble requires three things. First, you’d see exuberant demand—boosted by speculation—rush into the housing market. Second, spiked home prices soar well above what incomes can support and reach "overvaluation" levels. Third, the housing bubble pops and home prices fall.

The Pandemic Housing Boom saw "investor mania" return to the market. Historically low mortgage rates attracted mom-and-pop landlords and Airbnb hosts alike. Short-term flippers, attracted by record levels of home price appreciation, got in too. Indeed, a total of 114,706 homes were "flipped" in the first quarter of 2022, according to ATTOM Data. That's higher than any quarter in the years leading up to the 2008 bubble. Speculation? Check.

Every quarter, Moody's Analytics calculates an "overvalued" or "undervalued" figure for around 400 markets. The firm aims to find out whether fundamentals, including local income levels, could support local home prices. It's only troubling when a housing market becomes significantly "overvalued." In the second quarter of 2022, the typical market was "overvalued" by 23%. That's up from 3% in the second quarter of 2019, and above the 14% in the second quarter of 2006. Overvaluation? Check.

While the first two elements of the housing bubble did indeed return during the pandemic, the third element has yet to hit. Swonk says that "burst" is starting, but it'll vary by market.

The reason Swonk thinks the bust will vary? Some markets got a lot more bubbly than others.

For example, look at Chicago and Phoenix. The last time around, both markets saw a boom and bust. It's easy to see why given that in 2006, Chicago and Phoenix were "overvalued" by 32% and 48%, respectively. However, this time around Phoenix (which is now "overvalued" by 54%) saw a rush of speculators and out-of-town buyers, while Chicago (which is now "overvalued' by 3%) remained relatively tame.

Heading forward, housing economists expect markets like Phoenix to be at higher risk for sharper home price declines. In fact, Moody's Analytics is currently forecasting a 18.7% peak-to-trough drop in bubbly Phoenix. In Chicago, the analytics firm expects home prices to fall just 3.6%.

Falling home prices helps the Fed

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear that the U.S. housing market is in a "difficult correction." Once it's completed, buyers and sellers alike will return to a "reset" market.

Reading between the lines, some economists take "reset" as meaning "home prices will fall."

"Let's face it, where is one of the biggest pushes on inflation right now? It's in shelter costs. And it's where they [the Fed] have the most power," Swonk says. "And so, yeah, it was a stunning rise in [home] prices. An unsustainable rise—some kind of correction is needed. The problem is you don't get to choose how big that correction is."

A mild correction in home prices, Swonk says, would help the Fed to both rein in shelter costs and overall inflation. In that scenario, buyers might return to a market with both lower prices, more inventory, and lower mortgage rates.

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