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今年冬天,欧洲可能惨到超乎想象

今年冬天,欧洲可能惨到超乎想象

Tristan Bove 2022-09-27
随着俄罗斯限制供应,欧洲天然气的基准价格在过去一年上涨了一倍以上,消费者和企业都苦不堪言。

德国下奥瑟姆燃煤发电厂冷却塔中冒出的蒸汽。图片来源:LUKAS SCHULZE—GETTY IMAGES

全世界正在面临一场数十年未见的能源危机。

今年2月爆发的俄乌冲突在全球市场引发了连锁反应。曾经依赖俄罗斯能源的西方国家谴责俄罗斯的行为,拒绝购买俄罗斯的能源,或者被俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京停止供应。目前,俄罗斯是全球第二大天然气生产国和第三大石油生产国。

而这场危机在欧洲表现的最为突出,也更加危险,因为欧洲一直依赖俄罗斯廉价天然气的政策开始带来反噬。在俄乌冲突爆发之初,欧盟(European Union)的27个成员国40%的天然气供应依赖俄罗斯。天然气是欧洲第二大最常用的能源,仅次于石油。

但现在,随着俄罗斯限制供应,欧洲天然气的基准价格在过去一年上涨了一倍以上,消费者和企业都苦不堪言。

许多地方的电费增加了两倍。有些咖啡厅和餐厅的电费从一年前的每月2,000欧元增长到7,000欧元,一些主要行业为了节省电费,开始让员工休假,并缩减开支。欧洲各地的情况非常糟糕,之前已经放弃化石能源和核电的政府,不得不重新启用已经关闭的燃煤发电场和核电厂,并将电力公司国有化,以避免公司破产。

虽然现在的情况很糟糕,但对欧洲来说,更糟糕的情况还在后面。随着冬季来临,天然气需求增长,专家们对《财富》杂志表示,欧盟的能源市场变得极其脆弱,面临前所未有的危机。全球任何地区的能源需求即使出现最小幅度的上涨,都会导致欧洲整个制造业彻底关闭,给欧洲经济带来毁灭性打击,后果包括失业潮、高物价和极有可能发生的社会动荡,以及欧洲国家之间的分裂。

哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)的研究员塔季扬娜·米特罗娃告诉《财富》杂志:“物价处在历史最高水平。我们从未遇到过这种情况。未来会非常痛苦。”

努力为危机最好准备

在俄乌冲突刚爆发时,欧洲国家就开始想方设法保证其能源系统的安全,避免其受到俄罗斯天然气供应中断的影响。它们当时有两个选择:增加欧洲大陆的天然气供应,或者减少需求。

首先,欧洲国家希望通过能源供给多元化,从供应端解决迫在眉睫的能源危机,并减少对俄罗斯能源的依赖。欧洲国家选择了卡塔尔、美国和中亚国家,与这些国家签署了天然气和液化天然气(LNG)贸易协议。液化天然气更易于运输,可以通过海路运输,不必使用管道传输。

然而从供应侧解决危机有一个问题,那就是时间。增加其他国家的天然气供应,减少对俄罗斯的依赖,需要欧洲建设更多的管道,而进口液化天然气意味着需要在欧洲专门建设能够将液化天然气再气化的接收站,而这个建设过程可能需要两至五年。

欧洲各国为了在短期内维持能源供应可用的手段仅此而已。能源咨询公司Wood Mackenzie的研究分析师彭尼·利克对《财富》杂志表示,扩建天然气基础设施成本高昂,需要多年投资,而且可能要在明年夏天才可以初见成效。《财富》杂志采访的其他四位专家称,至少在2023年夏天之前,供应国对欧洲增加的天然气输送量,不太可能取代俄罗斯的天然气。

随着直接天然气供应达到极限,欧洲的能源系统目前处在了危机的边缘。这意味着,欧洲只剩下解决需求这个唯一现实的办法。而据米特罗娃所言,控制需求的过程可能要采取一些痛苦的手段,例如强制节能,以及全民能源定量配给等。

米特罗娃说:“我担心今年冬天唯一的解决方案是管理需求侧。我认为采取某种形式的定量配给和天然气需求限制措施,将不可避免。”

经济下滑

德国、法国和西班牙等欧洲国家都在今年夏天批准了节能措施,以尽可能在冬季天气变冷之前增加天然气储备。

但欧洲天然气储备的稳定性取决于相对温暖的冬季,因为如果天气寒冷,需求就有可能暴涨,超出欧洲天然气储备的供应极限。

欧洲政府已经开始执行节能和定量供给法律,比如晚上关闭交通信号灯和调低历史建筑照明等。各国政府没有命令消费者减少能源消费,但随着冬季能源需求增长,它们可能不得不做出一些艰难的抉择。

米特罗娃指出:“我们应该清楚,我们现在只能在各种糟糕的选项中做出选择,目前没有好的选项。”

通过定量供给或高价格减少天然气需求,可能对欧洲社会产生长期影响,导致欧洲持续衰落,而且这种做法已经在某些行业和经济体引发了动荡。

米特罗娃表示,超过70%的欧洲化肥生产商已经停业,这些厂商需要的氨原料需要从天然气生产过程中提取。能源成本暴涨已经迫使这些欧洲工厂和制造商减慢运营。

但最糟糕的情况是最依赖天然气的欧洲制造业停工,包括玻璃生产商和钢材公司等。

Wood Mackenzie公司的欧洲天然气研究总监莫罗·查维斯告诉《财富》杂志:“未来几周、几个月乃至到2023年,我们会看到的一个大问题是,持续保持高位的天然气和电力价格会如何对工业活动产生影响。”他还表示,许多“更敏感的”行业可能因为能源价格,而在不久后被迫停工。

查维斯还称,到目前为止,多数欧洲工厂只是削减了产能,并没有完全停工。但如果工业工厂依赖天然气发电,或者天然气在其所在国家能源组合占更大的比重,那么难以承受的高成本就可能很快迫使这些工厂开始停工。

上周,欧洲最大的汽车厂商大众公司(Volkswagen)表示,高电价可能迫使公司将产能,从德国、捷克共和国和斯洛伐克等高度依赖天然气的国家,搬到西南欧国家,因为这些国家的能源供应更多样化,并建有液化天然气接收站。

新型能源危机

这场危机对欧洲来说无异于雪上加霜,因为在经历过夏季的极端天气和延误行业运营的工人罢工之后,欧洲大陆的能源系统至今仍未恢复。在诸多挑战的共同压力下,欧洲可能面临一场自20世纪70年代以来最严重的能源危机之一。

这已经导致普通欧洲人面临高物价,企业减产,化肥业陷入衰退。但专家们表示,如果危机导致所有行业停工或搬迁,就可能引发持续更长时间的失业潮和经济下滑。

专家们认为,这种结果可能持续到冬季结束以后。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的高级能源策略师萨曼莎·达特最近在一篇文章中写道,削减工业产能会导致“经济活力下降,失业率升高,甚至增加经济衰退的可能性。”这让我们不由回想起20世纪70年代石油危机时期席卷整个欧洲的定量供给和失业潮。

过去几个月,随着全球需求增长,其他能源尤其是煤炭的价格也在上涨。夏季的极端天气和干旱使欧洲的核电和水力发电出现严重问题,它们作为俄罗斯天然气补充的能力遭到了质疑。

米特罗娃称:“欧洲目前的情况非常棘手。我敢说这可能比20世纪70年代更加严重,毕竟当时所爆发的只是一场石油危机而已。现在,我们要面对的是石油、核能、水电和天然气危机。”

能源咨询公司Kpler的天然气分析师蕾哈娜·拉西迪对《财富》杂志表示,欧洲所掌握的其他能源,使其在俄乌冲突爆发之后,立即采取能源多元化措施变得更容易。但随着冬季越来越近,这些替代能源开始暴露出各种各样的问题。

除了天然气供应短缺,从今年12月开始,欧洲很快就会感受到俄罗斯石油禁令的影响。而且可能并不过度依赖天然气的国家,依旧感受到了能源危机的影响。法国一直被认为是欧洲更稳定的能源供应国之一。法国约70%的电力来自核电,但到目前为止,为过冬而增加发电容量的工作,因为炎热的天气和工人罢工迟迟没有进展。

而且欧洲的可再生能源电网并没有为今年冬季的高需求做好准备,因此欧洲将面临的可能是一场全方位的新能源危机,其严重程度将是前所未有的。

“蛮荒西部情境”

冬季的危机尚未来临,但紧张的局面已经开始出现,导致各国领导人不得不做出艰难的抉择。

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的署长法提赫·比罗尔于上周接受《金融时报》(Financial Times)采访时表示,如果局势恶化,每个欧洲国家就都将进入“蛮荒西部”。

比罗尔认为,能源危机可能有两个走向:“欧盟及其成员国团结一致,相互扶持,或者每个国家各自为战。”

传统欧盟盟友之间的裂痕已经开始显现。今年8月,斯堪的纳维亚的邻国强烈批评挪威为保护本国消费者减少能源出口的决定。挪威是欧洲最主要的天然气生产国之一。

如果电费上涨的同时发生失业潮和经济衰退,那么危机就将导致人们走上街头。

在德国、英国和捷克共和国等国家已经有国民因为电费上涨而举行抗议。今年8月,德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨警告,高能源价格是“社会的火药桶”。

米特罗娃指出:“我们预计会有大量示威抗议。”她表示,欧洲预计会爆发与“黄马甲”运动类似的抗议活动。2018年,法国民众抗议生活成本和电费上涨,爆发了“黄马甲”运动。

米特罗娃说:“欧洲的政治家们必须为极其艰难的冬季做好准备。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

全世界正在面临一场数十年未见的能源危机。

今年2月爆发的俄乌冲突在全球市场引发了连锁反应。曾经依赖俄罗斯能源的西方国家谴责俄罗斯的行为,拒绝购买俄罗斯的能源,或者被俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京停止供应。目前,俄罗斯是全球第二大天然气生产国和第三大石油生产国。

而这场危机在欧洲表现的最为突出,也更加危险,因为欧洲一直依赖俄罗斯廉价天然气的政策开始带来反噬。在俄乌冲突爆发之初,欧盟(European Union)的27个成员国40%的天然气供应依赖俄罗斯。天然气是欧洲第二大最常用的能源,仅次于石油。

但现在,随着俄罗斯限制供应,欧洲天然气的基准价格在过去一年上涨了一倍以上,消费者和企业都苦不堪言。

许多地方的电费增加了两倍。有些咖啡厅和餐厅的电费从一年前的每月2,000欧元增长到7,000欧元,一些主要行业为了节省电费,开始让员工休假,并缩减开支。欧洲各地的情况非常糟糕,之前已经放弃化石能源和核电的政府,不得不重新启用已经关闭的燃煤发电场和核电厂,并将电力公司国有化,以避免公司破产。

虽然现在的情况很糟糕,但对欧洲来说,更糟糕的情况还在后面。随着冬季来临,天然气需求增长,专家们对《财富》杂志表示,欧盟的能源市场变得极其脆弱,面临前所未有的危机。全球任何地区的能源需求即使出现最小幅度的上涨,都会导致欧洲整个制造业彻底关闭,给欧洲经济带来毁灭性打击,后果包括失业潮、高物价和极有可能发生的社会动荡,以及欧洲国家之间的分裂。

哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)的研究员塔季扬娜·米特罗娃告诉《财富》杂志:“物价处在历史最高水平。我们从未遇到过这种情况。未来会非常痛苦。”

努力为危机最好准备

在俄乌冲突刚爆发时,欧洲国家就开始想方设法保证其能源系统的安全,避免其受到俄罗斯天然气供应中断的影响。它们当时有两个选择:增加欧洲大陆的天然气供应,或者减少需求。

首先,欧洲国家希望通过能源供给多元化,从供应端解决迫在眉睫的能源危机,并减少对俄罗斯能源的依赖。欧洲国家选择了卡塔尔、美国和中亚国家,与这些国家签署了天然气和液化天然气(LNG)贸易协议。液化天然气更易于运输,可以通过海路运输,不必使用管道传输。

然而从供应侧解决危机有一个问题,那就是时间。增加其他国家的天然气供应,减少对俄罗斯的依赖,需要欧洲建设更多的管道,而进口液化天然气意味着需要在欧洲专门建设能够将液化天然气再气化的接收站,而这个建设过程可能需要两至五年。

欧洲各国为了在短期内维持能源供应可用的手段仅此而已。能源咨询公司Wood Mackenzie的研究分析师彭尼·利克对《财富》杂志表示,扩建天然气基础设施成本高昂,需要多年投资,而且可能要在明年夏天才可以初见成效。《财富》杂志采访的其他四位专家称,至少在2023年夏天之前,供应国对欧洲增加的天然气输送量,不太可能取代俄罗斯的天然气。

随着直接天然气供应达到极限,欧洲的能源系统目前处在了危机的边缘。这意味着,欧洲只剩下解决需求这个唯一现实的办法。而据米特罗娃所言,控制需求的过程可能要采取一些痛苦的手段,例如强制节能,以及全民能源定量配给等。

米特罗娃说:“我担心今年冬天唯一的解决方案是管理需求侧。我认为采取某种形式的定量配给和天然气需求限制措施,将不可避免。”

经济下滑

德国、法国和西班牙等欧洲国家都在今年夏天批准了节能措施,以尽可能在冬季天气变冷之前增加天然气储备。

但欧洲天然气储备的稳定性取决于相对温暖的冬季,因为如果天气寒冷,需求就有可能暴涨,超出欧洲天然气储备的供应极限。

欧洲政府已经开始执行节能和定量供给法律,比如晚上关闭交通信号灯和调低历史建筑照明等。各国政府没有命令消费者减少能源消费,但随着冬季能源需求增长,它们可能不得不做出一些艰难的抉择。

米特罗娃指出:“我们应该清楚,我们现在只能在各种糟糕的选项中做出选择,目前没有好的选项。”

通过定量供给或高价格减少天然气需求,可能对欧洲社会产生长期影响,导致欧洲持续衰落,而且这种做法已经在某些行业和经济体引发了动荡。

米特罗娃表示,超过70%的欧洲化肥生产商已经停业,这些厂商需要的氨原料需要从天然气生产过程中提取。能源成本暴涨已经迫使这些欧洲工厂和制造商减慢运营。

但最糟糕的情况是最依赖天然气的欧洲制造业停工,包括玻璃生产商和钢材公司等。

Wood Mackenzie公司的欧洲天然气研究总监莫罗·查维斯告诉《财富》杂志:“未来几周、几个月乃至到2023年,我们会看到的一个大问题是,持续保持高位的天然气和电力价格会如何对工业活动产生影响。”他还表示,许多“更敏感的”行业可能因为能源价格,而在不久后被迫停工。

查维斯还称,到目前为止,多数欧洲工厂只是削减了产能,并没有完全停工。但如果工业工厂依赖天然气发电,或者天然气在其所在国家能源组合占更大的比重,那么难以承受的高成本就可能很快迫使这些工厂开始停工。

上周,欧洲最大的汽车厂商大众公司(Volkswagen)表示,高电价可能迫使公司将产能,从德国、捷克共和国和斯洛伐克等高度依赖天然气的国家,搬到西南欧国家,因为这些国家的能源供应更多样化,并建有液化天然气接收站。

新型能源危机

这场危机对欧洲来说无异于雪上加霜,因为在经历过夏季的极端天气和延误行业运营的工人罢工之后,欧洲大陆的能源系统至今仍未恢复。在诸多挑战的共同压力下,欧洲可能面临一场自20世纪70年代以来最严重的能源危机之一。

这已经导致普通欧洲人面临高物价,企业减产,化肥业陷入衰退。但专家们表示,如果危机导致所有行业停工或搬迁,就可能引发持续更长时间的失业潮和经济下滑。

专家们认为,这种结果可能持续到冬季结束以后。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的高级能源策略师萨曼莎·达特最近在一篇文章中写道,削减工业产能会导致“经济活力下降,失业率升高,甚至增加经济衰退的可能性。”这让我们不由回想起20世纪70年代石油危机时期席卷整个欧洲的定量供给和失业潮。

过去几个月,随着全球需求增长,其他能源尤其是煤炭的价格也在上涨。夏季的极端天气和干旱使欧洲的核电和水力发电出现严重问题,它们作为俄罗斯天然气补充的能力遭到了质疑。

米特罗娃称:“欧洲目前的情况非常棘手。我敢说这可能比20世纪70年代更加严重,毕竟当时所爆发的只是一场石油危机而已。现在,我们要面对的是石油、核能、水电和天然气危机。”

能源咨询公司Kpler的天然气分析师蕾哈娜·拉西迪对《财富》杂志表示,欧洲所掌握的其他能源,使其在俄乌冲突爆发之后,立即采取能源多元化措施变得更容易。但随着冬季越来越近,这些替代能源开始暴露出各种各样的问题。

除了天然气供应短缺,从今年12月开始,欧洲很快就会感受到俄罗斯石油禁令的影响。而且可能并不过度依赖天然气的国家,依旧感受到了能源危机的影响。法国一直被认为是欧洲更稳定的能源供应国之一。法国约70%的电力来自核电,但到目前为止,为过冬而增加发电容量的工作,因为炎热的天气和工人罢工迟迟没有进展。

而且欧洲的可再生能源电网并没有为今年冬季的高需求做好准备,因此欧洲将面临的可能是一场全方位的新能源危机,其严重程度将是前所未有的。

“蛮荒西部情境”

冬季的危机尚未来临,但紧张的局面已经开始出现,导致各国领导人不得不做出艰难的抉择。

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的署长法提赫·比罗尔于上周接受《金融时报》(Financial Times)采访时表示,如果局势恶化,每个欧洲国家就都将进入“蛮荒西部”。

比罗尔认为,能源危机可能有两个走向:“欧盟及其成员国团结一致,相互扶持,或者每个国家各自为战。”

传统欧盟盟友之间的裂痕已经开始显现。今年8月,斯堪的纳维亚的邻国强烈批评挪威为保护本国消费者减少能源出口的决定。挪威是欧洲最主要的天然气生产国之一。

如果电费上涨的同时发生失业潮和经济衰退,那么危机就将导致人们走上街头。

在德国、英国和捷克共和国等国家已经有国民因为电费上涨而举行抗议。今年8月,德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨警告,高能源价格是“社会的火药桶”。

米特罗娃指出:“我们预计会有大量示威抗议。”她表示,欧洲预计会爆发与“黄马甲”运动类似的抗议活动。2018年,法国民众抗议生活成本和电费上涨,爆发了“黄马甲”运动。

米特罗娃说:“欧洲的政治家们必须为极其艰难的冬季做好准备。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

An energy crisis the likes of which hasn’t been seen in decades is unfolding around the world.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of this year created a ripple effect in global markets. Western nations that once relied on energy supplies from Russia—the world’s second largest natural gas producer and third largest petroleum producer—condemned the invasion by refusing to buy Russian energy, or were cut off by President Vladimir Putin.

Nowhere is this crisis more pronounced and more dangerous than in Europe, where a long-standing gambit on cheap Russian gas has backfired. At the onset of the war, the European Union’s 27 member nations relied on Russia for 40% of their natural gas—the second most common energy source in Europe behind petroleum oil.

But now, with Russian supplies limited, the benchmark price of natural gas in Europe has more than doubled over the past year, and both consumers and corporations are getting hit hard.

Electricity bills have already tripled in many places. Some coffee shops and restaurants have seen monthly bills rise from €2,000 a year ago to €7,000 now, and major industries have started furloughing workers and cutting back on expenses due to high electrical bills. The situation is so dire that governments that previously renounced fossil fuels and nuclear power are desperately reopening shuttered coal plants and nuclear sites, and nationalizing utility companies to save them from going bankrupt.

But as bad as it is now, these might still be the good days for Europe. With winter and higher gas demand on the way, experts told Fortune that Europe’s energy market has never been more vulnerable. Even the slightest uptick in energy demand anywhere in the world could push entire sectors of Europe’s manufacturing industry to shut down entirely, devastating European economies with a wave of unemployment, high prices, and in all likelihood public unrest and divisions between European nations.

“Prices are at historically record levels. We have never ever seen anything actually like this,” Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow with Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told Fortune. “This will become quite painful.”

Trying to prepare for a crisis

As soon as the war began in Ukraine, European nations scrambled to secure their energy systems against disruptions of natural gas supply from Russia. They had two options: increase supply of gas coming into the continent, or reduce the demand.

First, Europe turned to the supply side to resolve the mounting energy crisis by diversifying the countries that supply natural gas to the bloc, and reduce its reliance on Russian flows. EU countries looked to Qatar, the U.S., and central Asian nations to strike trade deals for both natural gas and LNG (liquified natural gas), a more easily transportable form of gas that can be shipped by sea rather than flowed through pipelines.

But trying to solve the crisis on the supply side comes with a catch: time. Increasing natural gas flows from countries other than Russia requires building more pipelines, while importing more LNG means constructing dedicated terminals in Europe that can regasify liquid gas, a process which can take anywhere from two to five years.

And there is only so much countries can do to shore up supplies in the short term. Expanding natural gas infrastructure is expensive, demands years of investment, and the results likely won’t kick in until the summer of next year, Penny Leake, a research analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told Fortune. Four other experts that Fortune spoke with said that until the summer of 2023 at least, suppliers are unlikely to be able to increase flows to Europe by a high enough volume to replace Russian gas.

With immediate supplies maxed out, Europe’s energy system is balanced on a ledge. That means that addressing demand is the only realistic measure left at Europe’s disposal. And that could come through painful means like mandated and widespread energy rationioning, according to Mitrova.

“I’m afraid that the only solution this winter will be on the demand side,” said Mitrova. “I think it will be quite difficult to avoid some sort of rationing and restrictions in gas demand.”

Economic spiral

European countries including Germany, France, and Spain approved energy conservation measures this summer in an effort to increase gas reserves as much as possible before the weather turns colder.

But the stability of Europe’s gas reserves depend on a relatively mild winter, because if it gets cold enough, it could send demand soaring higher than Europe’s reserves can handle.

European governments have already implemented some energy conservation and rationing laws, such as turning off traffic lights at night and dimming lighting on historic buildings. They have stopped short of ordering consumers to lower their energy use, but with energy demand much higher during the winter, they may be forced to make some difficult choices.

“We should understand that we are choosing between different bad options, we do not have a good scenario at the moment,” Mitrova said.

Reducing gas demand in Europe either through rationing or high prices could have a prolonged and debilitating effect on Europe’s society, and it’s already having destabilizing consequences for some industries and economies.

Over 70% of European fertilizer producers—which rely on the ammonia extracted from natural gas production—have already halted operations, according to Mitrova, and soaring energy costs are forcing those European factories and manufacturers to slow down operations.

But the worst-case scenario would be a shutdown of European manufacturing industries most reliant on natural gas—including glassmakers and steel companies.

“A big thing that we will be seeing in the next few weeks, months, and into 2023, will be how this situation of sustained very high gas and electricity prices could impact industrial activity,” Mauro Chavez, research director of European gas at Wood Mackenzie, told Fortune, adding that many of these “more sensitive” industries may be forced to shut down soon because of energy prices.

Chavez added that so far, most European factories have only reduced their capacity, rather than shut down entirely. But industrial plants that rely on natural gas for electricity or are located in countries where gas plays a bigger role in the energy mix, could start shutting down soon because of unbearably high costs.

Last week, Europe’s largest car company Volkswagen suggested that high electricity bills could lead the company to relocate its production capacity from countries that were highly-dependent on Russian gas—including Germany, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia—to southwestern European nations which have access to more diversified energy streams, including LNG terminals.

A new type of energy crisis

The crisis could not have come at a worse time for Europe, as the continent’s energy system is still recovering from a summer of extreme weather and worker strikes slowing operations. Combined with these challenges, this crunch could be one of the worst energy crises on the continent since the 1970s.

It already means high prices for average Europeans, companies cutting back on production, and a slowdown in the fertilizer industry. But if it forces all kinds of industries to shut down or relocate, experts say it could lead to a much longer wave of unemployment and economic downturn on the continent.

That kind of outcome could persist long after winter is over, experts say. Cutting back on industrial capacity could lead to “lower economic activity, higher levels of unemployment and even greater potential for recession,” Goldman Sachs senior energy strategist Samantha Dart wrote in a recent post, evoking memories of the rationing and unemployment that swept the continent during the 1970s oil crisis.

The prices of other energy sources—especially coal—have also risen over the past several months with higher global demand for them. And a summer of extreme weather and drought has crippled Europe’s nuclear and hydropower generation capacity, throwing its ability to compensate for Russian natural gas into doubt.

“Europe is now in a very challenging situation. I would say it is probably worse than the 1970s when there was just an oil crisis. Now we are talking about a crisis with oil, nuclear, hydropower, and gas,” Mitrova said.

Diversifying away from natural gas immediately after the war broke out was made easier by several other energy sources at Europe’s disposal, Ryhana Rasidi, gas analyst at energy consultancy Kpler, told Fortune. But with winter on the way, these alternative sources are beginning to show issues of their own.

In addition to supply shortfalls for natural gas, Europe will soon start feeling the effects of a ban on Russian oil, set to kick in from December onwards. And European countries that may not have been extremely reliant on natural gas are still feeling the sting of an energy crisis. France, long considered one of Europe’s more stable energy suppliers, generates around 70% of its energy from nuclear sources, but efforts to increase power capacity in preparation for the winter have so far been hindered by hot weather and worker strikes.

Combined with a renewable energy grid unprepared for the weight of this winter’s demands, Europe’s new energy crisis promises to be unique in all the worst ways, on every front.

“Wild west scenario”

The brunt of winter has yet to hit, but tensions are already starting to emerge, leaving politicians with some tough choices.

If the situation deteriorates, every European country is in for a “wild west scenario,” Fatih Birol, head of the watchdog International Energy Agency, warned this week in an interview with the FT.

Birol said the energy crisis could go one of two ways: “EU and members will work in solidarity, supporting each other…or there is another scenario, if everybody is for himself.”

Cracks between traditional EU allies have already begun to show. In August, Scandinavian neighbors heavily criticized Norway—Europe’s leading domestic natural gas producer—for its decision to curb energy exports in an effort to protect Norwegian consumers.

And if rising electrical bills combine with a wave of unemployment and economic downturn, the crisis could spill out onto the streets.

In Germany, the U.K., the Czech Republic and elsewhere, citizens have already protested rising electricity bills. In August, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that high energy bills were a “powder keg for society.”

“We can expect some protests,” Mitrova said, adding that Europe should anticipate movements similar to the Yellow Jacket protesters who emerged in France in 2018 protesting higher costs of living and electricity bills.

“European politicians have to prepare for a very difficult season,” she said.

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