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VC资金池干涸,创业老兵谈如何挺过市场低潮

VC资金池干涸,创业老兵谈如何挺过市场低潮

PETER PEZARIS 2022-08-15
随着风投资金枯竭,许多初创公司将难以为继。

全球大跌重创科技股估值,促使风投公司重新评估其在非上市科技初创公司中的利益得失。图片来源:Getty Images

过去几个月,初创界因为经济的不确定性受到严重冲击。软银(SoftBank)遭遇前所未有的亏损,之后表示将启动裁员,并从部分最知名的投资中撤出。红杉资本(Sequoia capital)和Y Combinator等业内领先的风投公司也发出残酷警告,告知创业者要为严重的市场低迷做好准备。这些罕见的公开声明预示着凛冬将至:随着风投资金枯竭,许多初创公司将难以为继。

在我的职业生涯中,我曾先后创建并带领四家创业公司成功退出,我也见证过市场低迷会以多么快的速度重塑创业公司的格局。我们知道初创公司在未来几个月将经历何种痛苦,但那些刚刚开始创业的人呢?他们还有没有希望获得风投资金,还是应该选择自力更生、不拿融资推动企业发展?

与我们这些20年前的创业人相比,今天的创业者拥有更多白手起家的条件。他们不再需要大量资金购买房屋或设备,只用从AWS或Azure上以超低价租用电脑,利用晚上和周末时间创建公司的可行性已经大大提升。

“先赚钱再花钱”的传统创业模式对今天的创业者来说可能是一个陌生的概念,但随着我们进入经济动荡期,还是老办法最可靠。

接受现实

在经济低迷时期,创业者最常犯的错误是不能快速接受现实。因为风投环境本身或许就具有误导性:风投公司仍然会参加会议,向创始人提供(通常是积极的)反馈,让创始人觉得他们走对了路。

然而,这些对话制造的假象却掩盖了这个事实:风投公司短期内并不会开出支票。创始人的经历不会发生日新月异的变化,但筹到钱的机会已经变成了零。

目前,创始人能做的是,找一位值得信赖的顾问,他/她应当曾经帮助过初创公司顺利度过经济衰退期。当行业领袖谈论经济动荡以及将如何影响融资时,请严阵以待。创业者越早将现实世界的经济环境因素纳入公司的规划和运营中,等经济复苏时,他们就越能够获得成功。

自力更生的利与弊

在我参与创办的四家初创公司中,有两家获得了风投资金支持,另外两家则是自力更生,没有外部投资。

要知道,如果你选择自力更生模式,其潜在回报是:当初创公司成功退出时,这笔钱会直接进入公司创始人的口袋。不过,这种模式下成功退出的道路有时会更长,也往往更具挑战性。

当一家初创公司得到红杉资本或Y Combinator这样的公司投资时,相当于拿到了一份认证,可以在今后给公司带来更多机会,可能是额外的资金支持、合作伙伴、客户,甚至可能是一个能做出重要贡献的关键员工。

而创业公司如果选择自力更生,则游离于上述体系之外,因此必须拿出令人信服的数据让自己被看到。如果数据能证明公司的增长、市场牵引力和流通速度,你就会发现低迷的市场意味着不可思议的机会。如果你能比竞争对手撑得更久,熬过最困难的时期,那么当市场复苏时,你就能找到利率和条款都具有超高吸引力的新投资。

熬过低谷

创业环境可能在一夜之间产生巨变,给今天的创始人和创业家带来打击。就在今年1月,《纽约时报》(New York Times)还在专题报道充满泡沫的科技融资市场。

寥寥数月,派对已经结束。对于今天的创业者而言,无论是否选择自力更生,都要牢记要把自己的公司放在大环境大背景中。

很少有公司是想出了一个点子、付诸实践,然后立刻取得成功。相反,在大多数成功的创业公司的故事里,是一个接一个的构思,直到公司最终找到成功的公式。

成功的唯一途径是绝不放弃,同时有意识地配置你宝贵的资本,来最大限度地寻找成功机会。(财富中文网)

皮特·佩查理斯是New Relic战略与经验高级副总裁。

《财富》网站上的评论文章仅代表作者个人观点,并不代表《财富》杂志意见。

译者:Agatha

过去几个月,初创界因为经济的不确定性受到严重冲击。软银(SoftBank)遭遇前所未有的亏损,之后表示将启动裁员,并从部分最知名的投资中撤出。红杉资本(Sequoia capital)和Y Combinator等业内领先的风投公司也发出残酷警告,告知创业者要为严重的市场低迷做好准备。这些罕见的公开声明预示着凛冬将至:随着风投资金枯竭,许多初创公司将难以为继。

在我的职业生涯中,我曾先后创建并带领四家创业公司成功退出,我也见证过市场低迷会以多么快的速度重塑创业公司的格局。我们知道初创公司在未来几个月将经历何种痛苦,但那些刚刚开始创业的人呢?他们还有没有希望获得风投资金,还是应该选择自力更生、不拿融资推动企业发展?

与我们这些20年前的创业人相比,今天的创业者拥有更多白手起家的条件。他们不再需要大量资金购买房屋或设备,只用从AWS或Azure上以超低价租用电脑,利用晚上和周末时间创建公司的可行性已经大大提升。

“先赚钱再花钱”的传统创业模式对今天的创业者来说可能是一个陌生的概念,但随着我们进入经济动荡期,还是老办法最可靠。

接受现实

在经济低迷时期,创业者最常犯的错误是不能快速接受现实。因为风投环境本身或许就具有误导性:风投公司仍然会参加会议,向创始人提供(通常是积极的)反馈,让创始人觉得他们走对了路。

然而,这些对话制造的假象却掩盖了这个事实:风投公司短期内并不会开出支票。创始人的经历不会发生日新月异的变化,但筹到钱的机会已经变成了零。

目前,创始人能做的是,找一位值得信赖的顾问,他/她应当曾经帮助过初创公司顺利度过经济衰退期。当行业领袖谈论经济动荡以及将如何影响融资时,请严阵以待。创业者越早将现实世界的经济环境因素纳入公司的规划和运营中,等经济复苏时,他们就越能够获得成功。

自力更生的利与弊

在我参与创办的四家初创公司中,有两家获得了风投资金支持,另外两家则是自力更生,没有外部投资。

要知道,如果你选择自力更生模式,其潜在回报是:当初创公司成功退出时,这笔钱会直接进入公司创始人的口袋。不过,这种模式下成功退出的道路有时会更长,也往往更具挑战性。

当一家初创公司得到红杉资本或Y Combinator这样的公司投资时,相当于拿到了一份认证,可以在今后给公司带来更多机会,可能是额外的资金支持、合作伙伴、客户,甚至可能是一个能做出重要贡献的关键员工。

而创业公司如果选择自力更生,则游离于上述体系之外,因此必须拿出令人信服的数据让自己被看到。如果数据能证明公司的增长、市场牵引力和流通速度,你就会发现低迷的市场意味着不可思议的机会。如果你能比竞争对手撑得更久,熬过最困难的时期,那么当市场复苏时,你就能找到利率和条款都具有超高吸引力的新投资。

熬过低谷

创业环境可能在一夜之间产生巨变,给今天的创始人和创业家带来打击。就在今年1月,《纽约时报》(New York Times)还在专题报道充满泡沫的科技融资市场。

寥寥数月,派对已经结束。对于今天的创业者而言,无论是否选择自力更生,都要牢记要把自己的公司放在大环境大背景中。

很少有公司是想出了一个点子、付诸实践,然后立刻取得成功。相反,在大多数成功的创业公司的故事里,是一个接一个的构思,直到公司最终找到成功的公式。

成功的唯一途径是绝不放弃,同时有意识地配置你宝贵的资本,来最大限度地寻找成功机会。(财富中文网)

皮特·佩查理斯是New Relic战略与经验高级副总裁。

《财富》网站上的评论文章仅代表作者个人观点,并不代表《财富》杂志意见。

译者:Agatha

Over the past few months, the startup community has been hit particularly hard by economic uncertainty. Following unprecedented losses, SoftBank signaled that they would cut headcount and exit stakes in some of their most noteworthy investments. Leading venture capital firms like Sequoia Capital and Y Combinator have issued stark warnings to founders telling them to brace for a serious market downturn. These rare public statements are a harbinger for trouble: As venture capital funding dries up, many startups will not survive.

I’ve founded and led four startups to successful exits over the course of my career, and I’ve seen how quickly market downturns can reshape the startup landscape. We know the pain that existing startups will go through over the next few months, but what about founders who are only now launching a new business? Is there any hope for VC funding, or should they instead try to do it themselves and bootstrap the business?

Today’s founders are in a better position to bootstrap their business than those of us who launched companies 20 years ago. There are no longer significant capital requirements to buy premises or equipment, as it’s far more feasible to build a company on nights and weekends while renting computers from AWS or Azure for pennies.

Building a business the old-fashioned way–where you don’t spend a dollar until you have a dollar in revenue–may be a foreign concept to today’s founders, but it’s more viable than ever as we enter a period of economic turbulence.

Accepting reality

The most common mistake that founders make during a down economy is failing to quickly accept the reality of the situation. This is because the environment itself can be misleading: VCs will still take meetings and provide (often positive) feedback to startup founders, giving founders the impression that they’re on the right track.

However, these conversations belie the fact that those same VCs won’t be writing a check anytime soon. The founder’s experience doesn’t change dramatically on a daily basis, but the chances of raising money have gone to zero.

The best thing a founder can do at the moment is to find a trusted advisor who has seen startups through previous economic downturns. When industry leaders talk about economic shifts and how it will impact fundraising, take it seriously. The sooner an entrepreneur factors real-world economic conditions into their plans and operations, the more likely they are to come out ahead when things pick back up.

Pros and cons of bootstrapping

Of the four startups I co-founded, two were backed by VC funding while the other two were bootstrapped with no outside investment.

It’s worth noting the potential reward for a successful bootstrapped startup: When you achieve a successful exit, that money goes directly to those who built the company. However, the road to a successful exit is sometimes longer, and often more challenging.

When a startup is funded by a firm like Sequoia or Y Combinator, startups essentially receive a stamp of approval that will lead to further opportunities down the road, whether that’s additional funding, partnerships, customers, or even a key hire who can make a meaningful contribution.

A bootstrapped startup is not plugged into that system, and must instead use compelling metrics to put themselves on the map. Bootstrapped companies that can show data proving growth, traction and velocity will find a down market represents an incredible opportunity. If you can outlast your competitors and make it through the most difficult conditions, you’ll then be able to find new investments with extremely attractive rates and terms when the market recovers.

Surviving a down economy

The overnight shift in startup economics likely caused whiplash for today’s founders and entrepreneurs. As recently as January of this year, the New York Times was running features on the remarkably frothy market for tech funding.

Now just a few months later, the party is over. Today’s startup founders–bootstrapped or otherwise–must remember to put their company in context.

I can think of very few companies that came up with an idea, built it, and then found immediate success. Instead, the story of most successful startups involves ideation after ideation until finally the company lands on the formula for success.

The only way to succeed is by refusing to give up and being intentional about how you deploy your precious capital to maximize your opportunities to find success.

Peter Pezaris is the SVP of strategy & experience at New Relic.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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