逢低买入人士要注意：华尔街最臭名昭著的卖空人士预见到股市反弹即将到来
华尔街最著名的卖空人士之一认为，在重新开始抛售之前，美国股市目前的涨势将会延续。
以迈克尔·威尔逊为首的摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）策略师表示，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500 Index）可能会继续攀升5%至7%，然后再恢复跌势。
他们在一份报告中写道：“我们认为美国股市可能进一步反弹。”债券收益率和油价双双下跌，缓解了人们对通胀失控的担忧，使得基准股指结束了连续三周的跌势。
由于担心美联储（Federal Reserve）的强硬立场和通胀飙升可能让美国经济陷入衰退，美国股市今年一直处于动荡之中。标准普尔500指数在从1月的峰值下跌20%后进入熊市，并可能迎来自1970年以来最糟糕的上半年。
威尔逊正确预测了今年的抛售，他表示，整个跌幅的38%至50%的回调“很自然，也不会与之前的熊市反弹不一致”。他说，这将使标准普尔500指数最多升至4200点，较6月24日收盘上涨约5%至7%，利率敏感型股票将推动股市反弹。
但威尔逊警告称，由于担心经济放缓导致油价和收益率下跌，而不是通胀见顶，股市最终将继续下跌。
“熊市可能还没有终结，尽管未来几周可能会有熊市终结的感觉，因为市场将降息视为美联储能够实现软着陆并防止对盈利预测进行大幅修正的迹象。”该策略师说道。
在要求经济软着陆的基本情况下，威尔逊认为标准普尔500指数将在3400点至3500点之间触底，较最新收盘点位低13%。他说，经济衰退将让该指数下跌23%以上，至3000点左右。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
华尔街最著名的卖空人士之一认为，在重新开始抛售之前，美国股市目前的涨势将会延续。
以迈克尔·威尔逊为首的摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）策略师表示，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500 Index）可能会继续攀升5%至7%，然后再恢复跌势。
他们在一份报告中写道：“我们认为美国股市可能进一步反弹。”债券收益率和油价双双下跌，缓解了人们对通胀失控的担忧，使得基准股指结束了连续三周的跌势。
由于担心美联储（Federal Reserve）的强硬立场和通胀飙升可能让美国经济陷入衰退，美国股市今年一直处于动荡之中。标准普尔500指数在从1月的峰值下跌20%后进入熊市，并可能迎来自1970年以来最糟糕的上半年。
威尔逊正确预测了今年的抛售，他表示，整个跌幅的38%至50%的回调“很自然，也不会与之前的熊市反弹不一致”。他说，这将使标准普尔500指数最多升至4200点，较6月24日收盘上涨约5%至7%，利率敏感型股票将推动股市反弹。
但威尔逊警告称，由于担心经济放缓导致油价和收益率下跌，而不是通胀见顶，股市最终将继续下跌。
“熊市可能还没有终结，尽管未来几周可能会有熊市终结的感觉，因为市场将降息视为美联储能够实现软着陆并防止对盈利预测进行大幅修正的迹象。”该策略师说道。
在要求经济软着陆的基本情况下，威尔逊认为标准普尔500指数将在3400点至3500点之间触底，较最新收盘点位低13%。他说，经济衰退将让该指数下跌23%以上，至3000点左右。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
One of Wall Street’s most prominent bears sees the current rally in US stocks extending—prior to the selloff recommencing.
Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson say the S&P 500 Index may climb another 5% to 7%, before resuming losses.
“We think US equity markets can rally further,” they wrote in a note, with a decline in both bond yields and oil prices having eased some worries around runaway inflation and helping the benchmark snap a three-week losing streak.
US stocks have been roiled this year by concerns that a combination of a hawkish Federal Reserve and surging inflation could tip the economy into a recession. The S&P 500 is in a bear market after falling 20% from its January peak and is on course for its worst first half since 1970.
Wilson, who correctly predicted this year’s selloff, said a retracement of 38% to 50% of the entire decline “would not be unnatural or out of line with prior bear market rallies.” That would lift the S&P 500 to as much as 4,200, giving the index about 5% to 7% upside from June 24’s close, with interest-rate sensitive stocks driving the rebound, he said.
But with fears of an economic slowdown driving the drop in oil and yields rather than a peak in inflation, stock markets are ultimately in for more declines, Wilson warned.
“The bear market is likely not over although it may feel like it over the next few weeks as markets take the lower rates as a sign the Fed can orchestrate a soft landing and prevent a meaningful revision to earnings forecasts,” the strategist said.
In his base case, which calls for a soft economic landing, Wilson sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,400 and 3,500 index points—as much as 13% below its latest close. And a recession would send the index more than 23% lower to about 3,000, he said.
