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币圈投资者一夜暴富的时代结束了

币圈投资者一夜暴富的时代结束了

Taylor Locke 2022-06-26
许多投资者倾家荡产,但业内人士表示,行业依然健康。

上周,投资者似乎在加密货币市场遭遇伏击。

IntoTheBlock的研究主管卢卡斯·奥图穆罗于6月17日在邮件中指出,强制抛售和流动性问题“导致了加密货币领域最糟糕的季度价格表现之一”。

“总的来说,本周以加密货币的历史性崩盘收尾。随着整个市场的混乱接踵而至,我们见证了多个指标的创纪录动荡。”奥图穆罗写道。“尽管现在说已经见底可能还为时过早,但这与以往的熊市有一些明显的相似之处。”

作为全球市值最大的加密货币,比特币自2020年12月以来首次跌破20000美元。第二大加密货币以太币跌破1000美元,这是自2021年1月以来从未见过的。加密货币的总市值低于1万亿美元,而历史最高水平是3万亿美元。

在焦虑地关注链上动向的同时,投资者也想知道未来会发生什么。业内人士几乎可以肯定的是许多项目将会消失,同时补充说,这揭示了中心化和杠杆问题;但对他们中的一些人来说,却还有一线希望。

加密货币交易所dYdX的增长主管科里·米勒告诉《财富》杂志:“[出现这种情况]是健康的。”

短期调整

业内人士预测,至少在短期内,加密货币市场的多米诺骨牌效应可能会持续下去。对于面临过高杠杆率或其他运营问题的投资者和项目来说,未来还会有更多痛苦。这一切似乎都能够追溯到Terra。

尽管宏观经济因素(包括美国高于预期的通胀数据)为逆风的到来奠定了基础,但Terra生态系统的崩溃是不可否认的大爆炸。Terra生态中的稳定币TerraUSD(UST)及其原始加密货币Luna(LUNC)遭遇崩盘,变得几乎一文不值。

在鼎盛时期,UST和LUNC的市值为600亿美元,在今年5月暴跌至接近零后,上周对相关机构的影响变得明显。加密货币市场最大的借贷平台之一Celsius Network在6月19日暂停提款,引发了有关其破产的传言。不久之后,有关规模达数十亿美元基金的Three Arrows Capital状况的报道接踵而至,进一步加剧了对蔓延和系统性风险的担忧。随着时间的推移,越来越多的公司和平台都在提供财务状况最新信息或表明其没有财务状况新消息。

从主要参与者到普通投资者,影响范围广泛。即便是与加密货币相关的主要公司,例如 Coinbase、Gemini、BlockFi和Crypto.com,最近也宣布裁员——其中几家公司刚刚在超级碗(Super Bowl)的广告上投入了数百万美元,因为那时加密货币的市值接近峰值。

“现在情况真的很不稳定,需要一段时间才可以稳定下来。人们正在观望并等待看其他加密货币是否会崩盘。”加密货币交易公司Dexterity Capital的管理合伙人迈克尔·萨法伊向《财富》杂志表示。要构建一个“值得信赖的生态系统,投资者必须确信当他们投入资金后,他们能够将其取出。目前这种情况肯定会大大削弱这种信任。”

Galaxy Digital Trading的联席主管贾森·厄本告诉《财富》杂志,目前,我们有点“宿醉”。在短期内,市场预计将持续出现波动。

“我认为在接下来的三到六周内,人们将弄清楚到底发生了什么,以及谁走出来了,谁没有走出来。这是第一步。”厄本说。随后,“会有项目失败,也会有项目大获成功。”他补充道。

加密货币交易所dYdX的增长主管米勒向《财富》杂志表示,我们现在看到的是“从生态系统中消除过度风险”。他认为,这是一种健康的发展。“加密货币作为一个整体仍然可以抵御风险。”

展望未来

从这次崩盘中走出来后,加密货币的主要参与者表示,这个领域肯定会发生变化。他们可能会对某些项目有所犹豫,尤其是那些通过过度杠杆化提供极高收益的平台。监管也可能很快跟进,但许多业内人士仍然看好未来的创新。

厄本将加密货币市场目前的现状与2000年的互联网泡沫破裂进行了比较。展望未来,他预测,伴随着困境,创新将在这一时期出现。许多人也附和了他的言论。

狂热的加密货币投资者马克·库班在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“在股市和加密货币领域,你会看到那些依靠低息借款但没有有效商业前景维持的公司消失。就像[沃伦·]巴菲特所说,当潮水退去时,你就可以看到谁在裸泳。”

加密货币交易所FTX的首席执行官萨姆·班克曼-弗里德还告诉《财富》杂志,虽然这对“管理不善或用处不大的项目”来说将是一个“非常糟糕”的时期,但对于有价值的项目来说,情况将“不会那么糟糕”。“我认为我们不会看到行业消亡,但我们可能会看到一些行业转向更复杂的版本。”

从长远来看,萨法伊认为过高的收益率和杠杆率会减少。

萨法伊说:“还有很多事情要做。不劳而获的时代已经结束了。此时,大量杠杆将从系统中撤出,这最终将使加密货币生态系统更安全。”

米勒指出,这次低迷表明,与加密货币相关的项目和基金的“风险比谨慎项目的风险更大”。“与其他低迷类似,许多参与者被迫抛售,随后被淘汰出局。”

为了应对此次崩盘,政府监管机构已经表示将进一步完善加密货币市场的监管框架。对于政府的干预,业内人士百感交集,但不管他们喜欢与否,政府干预都可能发生。

加密货币借贷平台Ledn的联合创始人及首席执行官亚当·里德斯向《财富》表示:“我们认为,监管的出现是我们行业的一个积极发展,因为它将迫使参与者披露更多的细节,以便客户更好地评估相关的潜在风险,以及不同公司之间风险的差异。”

区块链娱乐平台Sator的首席执行官伊斯拉·佩尔菲托告诉《财富》杂志,尽管最近发生的事件,比如UST和LUNC的崩盘,“对加密货币市场情绪构成了威胁,是监管出现的催化剂,但它最终不会阻止Web3的创新增长。”

经验教训

尽管一些业内资深人士认为,本轮低迷与之前的“加密货币寒冬”有相似之处,但此次崩盘的经验教训将对未来产生其他影响。

Messari的高级研究分析师汤姆·邓利维表示,从这次低迷中走出来的“最重要的事情”将是“关注基本面”。

邓利维在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“过去,最有趣的新项目获得资金后,会发展到令人难以置信的规模以实现他们实际能够完成(或真正可以完成)的目标。未来的重点将是强大的协议、团队和用例。”

他还预测,此次低迷将“从根本上结束”以太坊竞争对手之间的“战争”。“比特币和以太坊还会存在,然后将有非常多项目争夺剩下的20%至30%的加密货币市值。”

业内人士表示,此次崩盘的重大启示也将塑造该领域的未来。

“现在每个人都必须认真审视自己的风险管理,但交易所似乎对这种疯狂行为完全免疫。随着每个人手头的资金越来越少,交易者面临的问题将是如何在杠杆率有限的世界中更聪明地配置资金并优化活动。”萨法伊表示。

这将非常重要,因为“少数几家贸易公司构成了市场活动的重要组成部分,它们对市场来说不可或缺。”他说。“经历过其他漫长的加密货币低迷期的商店将依靠这种经验继续发展,并且可能会变得更加强大,从而使行业受益。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

上周,投资者似乎在加密货币市场遭遇伏击。

IntoTheBlock的研究主管卢卡斯·奥图穆罗于6月17日在邮件中指出,强制抛售和流动性问题“导致了加密货币领域最糟糕的季度价格表现之一”。

“总的来说,本周以加密货币的历史性崩盘收尾。随着整个市场的混乱接踵而至,我们见证了多个指标的创纪录动荡。”奥图穆罗写道。“尽管现在说已经见底可能还为时过早,但这与以往的熊市有一些明显的相似之处。”

作为全球市值最大的加密货币,比特币自2020年12月以来首次跌破20000美元。第二大加密货币以太币跌破1000美元,这是自2021年1月以来从未见过的。加密货币的总市值低于1万亿美元,而历史最高水平是3万亿美元。

在焦虑地关注链上动向的同时,投资者也想知道未来会发生什么。业内人士几乎可以肯定的是许多项目将会消失,同时补充说,这揭示了中心化和杠杆问题;但对他们中的一些人来说,却还有一线希望。

加密货币交易所dYdX的增长主管科里·米勒告诉《财富》杂志:“[出现这种情况]是健康的。”

短期调整

业内人士预测,至少在短期内,加密货币市场的多米诺骨牌效应可能会持续下去。对于面临过高杠杆率或其他运营问题的投资者和项目来说,未来还会有更多痛苦。这一切似乎都能够追溯到Terra。

尽管宏观经济因素(包括美国高于预期的通胀数据)为逆风的到来奠定了基础,但Terra生态系统的崩溃是不可否认的大爆炸。Terra生态中的稳定币TerraUSD(UST)及其原始加密货币Luna(LUNC)遭遇崩盘,变得几乎一文不值。

在鼎盛时期,UST和LUNC的市值为600亿美元,在今年5月暴跌至接近零后,上周对相关机构的影响变得明显。加密货币市场最大的借贷平台之一Celsius Network在6月19日暂停提款,引发了有关其破产的传言。不久之后,有关规模达数十亿美元基金的Three Arrows Capital状况的报道接踵而至,进一步加剧了对蔓延和系统性风险的担忧。随着时间的推移,越来越多的公司和平台都在提供财务状况最新信息或表明其没有财务状况新消息。

从主要参与者到普通投资者,影响范围广泛。即便是与加密货币相关的主要公司,例如 Coinbase、Gemini、BlockFi和Crypto.com,最近也宣布裁员——其中几家公司刚刚在超级碗(Super Bowl)的广告上投入了数百万美元,因为那时加密货币的市值接近峰值。

“现在情况真的很不稳定,需要一段时间才可以稳定下来。人们正在观望并等待看其他加密货币是否会崩盘。”加密货币交易公司Dexterity Capital的管理合伙人迈克尔·萨法伊向《财富》杂志表示。要构建一个“值得信赖的生态系统,投资者必须确信当他们投入资金后,他们能够将其取出。目前这种情况肯定会大大削弱这种信任。”

Galaxy Digital Trading的联席主管贾森·厄本告诉《财富》杂志,目前,我们有点“宿醉”。在短期内,市场预计将持续出现波动。

“我认为在接下来的三到六周内,人们将弄清楚到底发生了什么,以及谁走出来了,谁没有走出来。这是第一步。”厄本说。随后,“会有项目失败,也会有项目大获成功。”他补充道。

加密货币交易所dYdX的增长主管米勒向《财富》杂志表示,我们现在看到的是“从生态系统中消除过度风险”。他认为,这是一种健康的发展。“加密货币作为一个整体仍然可以抵御风险。”

展望未来

从这次崩盘中走出来后,加密货币的主要参与者表示,这个领域肯定会发生变化。他们可能会对某些项目有所犹豫,尤其是那些通过过度杠杆化提供极高收益的平台。监管也可能很快跟进,但许多业内人士仍然看好未来的创新。

厄本将加密货币市场目前的现状与2000年的互联网泡沫破裂进行了比较。展望未来,他预测,伴随着困境,创新将在这一时期出现。许多人也附和了他的言论。

狂热的加密货币投资者马克·库班在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“在股市和加密货币领域,你会看到那些依靠低息借款但没有有效商业前景维持的公司消失。就像[沃伦·]巴菲特所说,当潮水退去时,你就可以看到谁在裸泳。”

加密货币交易所FTX的首席执行官萨姆·班克曼-弗里德还告诉《财富》杂志,虽然这对“管理不善或用处不大的项目”来说将是一个“非常糟糕”的时期,但对于有价值的项目来说,情况将“不会那么糟糕”。“我认为我们不会看到行业消亡,但我们可能会看到一些行业转向更复杂的版本。”

从长远来看,萨法伊认为过高的收益率和杠杆率会减少。

萨法伊说:“还有很多事情要做。不劳而获的时代已经结束了。此时,大量杠杆将从系统中撤出,这最终将使加密货币生态系统更安全。”

米勒指出,这次低迷表明,与加密货币相关的项目和基金的“风险比谨慎项目的风险更大”。“与其他低迷类似,许多参与者被迫抛售,随后被淘汰出局。”

为了应对此次崩盘,政府监管机构已经表示将进一步完善加密货币市场的监管框架。对于政府的干预,业内人士百感交集,但不管他们喜欢与否,政府干预都可能发生。

加密货币借贷平台Ledn的联合创始人及首席执行官亚当·里德斯向《财富》表示:“我们认为,监管的出现是我们行业的一个积极发展,因为它将迫使参与者披露更多的细节,以便客户更好地评估相关的潜在风险,以及不同公司之间风险的差异。”

区块链娱乐平台Sator的首席执行官伊斯拉·佩尔菲托告诉《财富》杂志,尽管最近发生的事件,比如UST和LUNC的崩盘,“对加密货币市场情绪构成了威胁,是监管出现的催化剂,但它最终不会阻止Web3的创新增长。”

经验教训

尽管一些业内资深人士认为,本轮低迷与之前的“加密货币寒冬”有相似之处,但此次崩盘的经验教训将对未来产生其他影响。

Messari的高级研究分析师汤姆·邓利维表示,从这次低迷中走出来的“最重要的事情”将是“关注基本面”。

邓利维在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“过去,最有趣的新项目获得资金后,会发展到令人难以置信的规模以实现他们实际能够完成(或真正可以完成)的目标。未来的重点将是强大的协议、团队和用例。”

他还预测,此次低迷将“从根本上结束”以太坊竞争对手之间的“战争”。“比特币和以太坊还会存在,然后将有非常多项目争夺剩下的20%至30%的加密货币市值。”

业内人士表示,此次崩盘的重大启示也将塑造该领域的未来。

“现在每个人都必须认真审视自己的风险管理,但交易所似乎对这种疯狂行为完全免疫。随着每个人手头的资金越来越少,交易者面临的问题将是如何在杠杆率有限的世界中更聪明地配置资金并优化活动。”萨法伊表示。

这将非常重要,因为“少数几家贸易公司构成了市场活动的重要组成部分,它们对市场来说不可或缺。”他说。“经历过其他漫长的加密货币低迷期的商店将依靠这种经验继续发展,并且可能会变得更加强大,从而使行业受益。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

It seemed like there was nowhere to hide in the crypto market last week.

Forced selling and liquidity troubles have “resulted in one of the worst quarterly price performances of the crypto space,” Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, wrote on June 17 in his newsletter.

“Overall, this week concludes a historic crash for crypto. We have witnessed record-level activity in multiple metrics as mayhem ensues throughout the market,” Outumuro wrote. “While it may still be too early to call the bottom, there are some evident similarities with previous bear markets.”

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell below $20,000 on Saturday for the first time since December 2020. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped below $1,000, a level not seen since January 2021. The overall cryptocurrency market cap is below $1 trillion, from an all-time high north of $3 trillion.

As they anxiously watch on-chain movement, investors are wondering what’s ahead. Industry players are nearly certain that many projects will disappear, while adding that this reveals issues with centralization and leverage issues, but to some of them, there’s a silver lining.

“This is healthy,” Corey Miller, growth lead at cryptocurrency exchange dYdX, told Fortune.

Short-term adjustments

The domino effect within the cryptocurrency market will likely continue, at least in the short term, industry players predict. More pain is ahead for investors and projects exposed to excessive leverage or other operational issues. It seems to all trace back to Terra.

Though macroeconomic factors, including higher than expected inflation numbers in the U.S., set the stage for headwinds to come, the Terra ecosystem collapse—with failed algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) and its original cryptocurrency Luna (LUNC) becoming nearly worthless—was an undeniable big bang in the space.

At its height, UST and LUNC were worth $60 billion, and after they collapsed to about zero in May, the impact on connected institutions became apparent last week. One of the cryptocurrency market’s biggest lending platforms, Celsius Network, paused its withdrawals on June 19, sparking rumors of bankruptcy. Reports concerning the state of multibillion-dollar fund Three Arrows Capital followed soon after, fueling further fears of contagion and systemic risk. As days go on, more and more firms, companies, and platforms alike are coming forward with updates on their financial health or lack thereof.

From big players to everyday investors, the impact is being felt far and wide. Even major cryptocurrency-related companies, like Coinbase, Gemini, BlockFi and Crypto.com, recently announced layoffs and headcount reductions—several of them having just spent millions on Super Bowl ads as crypto’s market cap was near its peak.

“Things are really shaky right now and it’s going to take a while for things to stabilize. People are watching and waiting to see if something else will topple,” Michael Safai, managing partner at cryptocurrency trading firm Dexterity Capital, told Fortune. To be a “trusted ecosystem, investors have to feel confident that when they put money in, they’re able to get it out. This is definitely setting back a lot of that trust.”

Currently, we’re in a bit of a “hangover,” Jason Urban, co-head of Galaxy Digital Trading, told Fortune. In the near term, continued volatility is expected.

“I think for the next three to six weeks, people are going to be figuring out what exactly has happened, and who is well healed and who is not. That’s the first step,” Urban said. Subsequently, “there are going to be projects that don't make it, and there are going to be projects that become wildly successful,” he added.

What we are seeing now is “excessive risk being wiped out from the ecosystem,” Miller, growth lead at cryptocurrency exchange dYdX, told Fortune, which he says is a healthy development. “While it does reveal many interconnected links within crypto, these wipeouts support the idea that crypto as a whole remains resilient to existential risks.”

Looking ahead

Coming out of this crash, major players in crypto say changes are all but certain in the space. There might be a hesitancy towards certain projects, depending on their code and pitch, or with platforms offering extremely high yield by over-leveraging. Regulation may also soon follow, but many in the space remain bullish on future innovation.

Urban compared the current state of the crypto market to the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000. Looking ahead, he predicts that alongside the distress, innovation will come out of this time period. Many others echoed his remarks.

“In stocks and crypto, you will see companies that were sustained by cheap, easy money—but didn’t have valid business prospects—will disappear,” Mark Cuban, avid cryptocurrency investor, told Fortune. “Like [Warren] Buffett says, When the tide goes out, you get to see who is swimming naked.”

While this will be a “very bad” period for “poorly built or not very useful projects,” things will be “much less bad for valuable ones,” Sam Bankman-Fried, chief executive officer of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, also told Fortune. “I don't think we'll see sectors die out but we might see some rotate to more sophisticated versions.”

In the long term, Safai sees less excessive yield and leverage.

“There’s going to be a lot of shaking up to be done,” Safai said. “[T]his era of being able to get exceptional yield for nothing is over. This is when a lot of leverage is going to get pulled out of the system, and this will ultimately make the crypto ecosystem safer.”

This downturn has revealed the crypto-related projects and funds that were “utilizing more risk than what was prudent,” Miller said. “Similar to other downturns, many players become forced sellers and are subsequently washed out.”

In response to the carnage this time around, government regulators have already signaled interest in furthering the development of a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market. Those within the space have mixed feelings about government intervention, but it might be happening whether they like it or not.

“We believe that regulation is a positive development in our industry as it will force players to disclose more details on their activities so that clients can better assess the potential risks associated and how they vary across different companies,” Adam Reeds, co-founder and chief executive officer at cryptocurrency lending platform Ledn, told Fortune.

While recent events, like the collapse of UST and LUNC, has “posed a threat to crypto market sentiment and is a catalyst for regulation, it will ultimately not stop the growth of innovation in Web3,” Isla Perfito, chief executive officer of Sator, a blockchain-based entertainment platform, told Fortune.

Lessons learned

Though some industry veterans see similarities between this downturn and previous “crypto winters,” some lessons specific to this crash will carry extra weight going forward.

The “biggest thing” to come out of this downturn will be a “focus on fundamentals,” says Tom Dunleavy, Messari senior research analyst.

“In the past, … [t]he new and most interesting projects got the capital, and grew to unbelievably large sizes for what they were actually accomplishing (or could really accomplish),” Dunleavy told Fortune. “The focus going forward will be on strong protocols, strong teams, and strong use cases.”

He also predicts that this downturn will “essentially end” the “wars” between Ethereum (ETH) competitors. “There is going to be BTC [or Bitcoin] and ETH, and then a long tail of projects fighting for the remaining 20% to 30% of crypto market cap."

Major takeaways from this crash will also shape the future of the space, industry players say.

“Everyone is having to take a good hard look at their risk management right now, but exchanges seem to be pretty inoculated from this madness. With less capital at everyone’s fingertips, the question for traders will be how to more intelligently deploy capital and optimize activity in a world where leverage is limited,” Safai said.

This will be important because “a handful of trading firms make up a significant amount of market activity, and the market doesn’t want to be without them,” he said. “Shops that navigated other lengthy crypto downturns will lean on that experience and probably come out far stronger, to the benefit of the industry.”

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