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安东尼·福奇:新冠疫情分为五个阶段,目前我们仍然处于第一阶段

安东尼·福奇:新冠疫情分为五个阶段,目前我们仍然处于第一阶段

Sophie Mellor 2022-01-22
有人乐观地认为,自然免疫将会导致新确诊病例数量逐步减少,但安东尼·福奇指出,现在下结论还为时过早。

本周,美国总统乔·拜登的首席医疗顾问安东尼·福奇博士表示,我们目前仍然处于新冠疫情五大阶段中的第一阶段。他警告称,不要对当前的进展过于乐观。

1月17日,福奇在世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)达沃斯议程(Davos Agenda)视讯会议上称,新冠疫情的第一阶段,或者所谓的“全球大流行阶段”是指“整个世界受到极为严重负面影响的阶段,我们当前就处于这一阶段”。

后续四个阶段则是指疫情传播速度放缓、疫情得到控制、疫情消退和最后疫情的彻底根除。

其他四个阶段的特点如下。

传播速度放缓

第一阶段过后,疫情传播速度将会放缓,确诊病例增速开始降低。

在许多奥密克戎变异毒株占据主导地位的国家,都曾经出现过确诊病例急剧上升后传播速度逐渐放缓的情况。以南非为例,该国由奥密克戎变异毒株引发的第四波疫情仅仅持续了三周的时间,而在英格兰,因为新冠病毒而住院的人数现在已经开始减少,距离2021年12月中旬开始的爆发阶段才刚刚过去一个月的时间。

由英国政府紧急情况科学咨询小组(Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies)的科学家搭建的模型显示,随着民众开始恢复社交活动,加上(身体对新冠病毒的)免疫力逐渐下降,今年初夏或将出现新一波奥密克戎疫情,但相关科学家也认为,下一波疫情的蔓延速度可能不会像这一轮这么快,最新模型显示,此前单日4000人入院的极端情况未来不太可能再次出现。

有人乐观认为,自然免疫将会导致新确诊病例数量逐步减少,但福奇指出,现在下结论还为时过早,而且新变异株随时可能出现。

他说:“由于各种新变种病毒接连出现,变异方向也是五花八门,现在还无法判断奥密克戎是否能够如大家所愿,成为所谓的‘活病毒疫苗’。”

疫情得到控制

疫情传播速度放缓之后将进入疫情控制阶段,也就是所谓的“地方病”阶段。在此阶段,新冠肺炎将与我们经常碰到的各种感染性疾病(例如流感或感冒)归为一类。

福奇说:“‘疫情得到控制’的意思是,病毒依然存在,但已经不会扰乱社会的正常运行。”

福奇表示自己希望疫情可以早日得到控制,但他也补充道,除非不再出现能够逃逸免疫反应的新变种,否则这种情况不会出现。至于新冠肺炎在2022年是否会变成地方病,福奇给出的答案是:“无从知晓。”

西班牙和瑞士等国政府已经表示,新冠肺炎正在变成一种像流感一样可以为各国政府所控制的地方病。

不过,要想让新冠肺炎变成地方病,该种病毒及未来变种的传播力和毒性都不能出现任何意外变化。

华威医学院(Warwick Medical School)的病毒学家兼分子肿瘤学教授劳伦斯·扬在接受《财富》采访时表示:“我认为冠状病毒完全无法预测。”

杨说:“在进入地方病阶段后,我们所经历的情况将与现在大为不同,在我看来,现在这种想法在很大程度上只能算是我们的一厢情愿。”

疫情消退

疫情消退阶段,病毒在世界上依然存在,但在某些地区或国家已经根除。福奇举了脊髓灰质炎的例子,该病毒在北半球多国已经被彻底根除。

科学家表示,世界距离实现这一目标还有很长一段距离。

“很多人都希望有一天我们能够宣布取得最终胜利。他们希望可以大声说出:‘现在,新冠病毒已经被我们彻底消灭,未来,我们将生活在一个没有新冠病毒的世界之中。’我认为这种愿望不切实际,也不可行。”哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的流行病学和医学教授瓦法·埃尔-萨德尔博士此前在接受《财富》杂志采访时如是说。

彻底根除

疫情的最后一个阶段是彻底根除,这几乎是一个不可能达到的目标。福奇指出,天花是唯一被人类消灭的传染性疾病。关于新冠病毒,他直言不讳地表示:“不可能彻底根除。”(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

本周,美国总统乔·拜登的首席医疗顾问安东尼·福奇博士表示,我们目前仍然处于新冠疫情五大阶段中的第一阶段。他警告称,不要对当前的进展过于乐观。

1月17日,福奇在世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)达沃斯议程(Davos Agenda)视讯会议上称,新冠疫情的第一阶段,或者所谓的“全球大流行阶段”是指“整个世界受到极为严重负面影响的阶段,我们当前就处于这一阶段”。

后续四个阶段则是指疫情传播速度放缓、疫情得到控制、疫情消退和最后疫情的彻底根除。

其他四个阶段的特点如下。

传播速度放缓

第一阶段过后,疫情传播速度将会放缓,确诊病例增速开始降低。

在许多奥密克戎变异毒株占据主导地位的国家,都曾经出现过确诊病例急剧上升后传播速度逐渐放缓的情况。以南非为例,该国由奥密克戎变异毒株引发的第四波疫情仅仅持续了三周的时间,而在英格兰,因为新冠病毒而住院的人数现在已经开始减少,距离2021年12月中旬开始的爆发阶段才刚刚过去一个月的时间。

由英国政府紧急情况科学咨询小组(Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies)的科学家搭建的模型显示,随着民众开始恢复社交活动,加上(身体对新冠病毒的)免疫力逐渐下降,今年初夏或将出现新一波奥密克戎疫情,但相关科学家也认为,下一波疫情的蔓延速度可能不会像这一轮这么快,最新模型显示,此前单日4000人入院的极端情况未来不太可能再次出现。

有人乐观认为,自然免疫将会导致新确诊病例数量逐步减少,但福奇指出,现在下结论还为时过早,而且新变异株随时可能出现。

他说:“由于各种新变种病毒接连出现,变异方向也是五花八门,现在还无法判断奥密克戎是否能够如大家所愿,成为所谓的‘活病毒疫苗’。”

疫情得到控制

疫情传播速度放缓之后将进入疫情控制阶段,也就是所谓的“地方病”阶段。在此阶段,新冠肺炎将与我们经常碰到的各种感染性疾病(例如流感或感冒)归为一类。

福奇说:“‘疫情得到控制’的意思是,病毒依然存在,但已经不会扰乱社会的正常运行。”

福奇表示自己希望疫情可以早日得到控制,但他也补充道,除非不再出现能够逃逸免疫反应的新变种,否则这种情况不会出现。至于新冠肺炎在2022年是否会变成地方病,福奇给出的答案是:“无从知晓。”

西班牙和瑞士等国政府已经表示,新冠肺炎正在变成一种像流感一样可以为各国政府所控制的地方病。

不过,要想让新冠肺炎变成地方病,该种病毒及未来变种的传播力和毒性都不能出现任何意外变化。

华威医学院(Warwick Medical School)的病毒学家兼分子肿瘤学教授劳伦斯·扬在接受《财富》采访时表示:“我认为冠状病毒完全无法预测。”

杨说:“在进入地方病阶段后,我们所经历的情况将与现在大为不同,在我看来,现在这种想法在很大程度上只能算是我们的一厢情愿。”

疫情消退

疫情消退阶段,病毒在世界上依然存在,但在某些地区或国家已经根除。福奇举了脊髓灰质炎的例子,该病毒在北半球多国已经被彻底根除。

科学家表示,世界距离实现这一目标还有很长一段距离。

“很多人都希望有一天我们能够宣布取得最终胜利。他们希望可以大声说出:‘现在,新冠病毒已经被我们彻底消灭,未来,我们将生活在一个没有新冠病毒的世界之中。’我认为这种愿望不切实际,也不可行。”哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的流行病学和医学教授瓦法·埃尔-萨德尔博士此前在接受《财富》杂志采访时如是说。

彻底根除

疫情的最后一个阶段是彻底根除,这几乎是一个不可能达到的目标。福奇指出,天花是唯一被人类消灭的传染性疾病。关于新冠病毒,他直言不讳地表示:“不可能彻底根除。”(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top medical adviser to President Joe Biden, said this week that we are still in the first of five stages of the pandemic, and he cautioned against thinking we are further along than we actually are.

The first phase of the pandemic—or the “the truly pandemic,” according to Fauci—is “where the whole world is really very negatively impacted as we are right now,” he said on January 17 at the World Economic Forum’s Davos Agenda online conference.

The following four steps are deceleration, control, elimination, and finally eradication.

Here are the characteristics of the other four stages.

Deceleration

After the first phase comes deceleration—a slowdown in the number of newly confirmed cases.

Omicron cases have risen steeply and then dropped off in many countries where the variant took hold. In South Africa, the fourth Omicron-fueled COVID wave lasted only a total of three weeks, and COVID hospitalizations in England have already begun to recede, just one month after the almost-vertical climb starting mid-December.

Scientists from the U.K.’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) have built models that show there may be a fresh wave of Omicron cases in early summer as people resume social activities and immunity wanes, but they argue cases are unlikely to rise as they did with Omicron, with the latest modeling noting another worst-case scenario of 4,000 people hospitalized a day is very unlikely to occur.

Some people are optimistic that natural immunity will cause the number of new cases to subside, but Fauci notes it is too soon to tell, and there could always be a new variant just around the corner.

“It is an open question as to whether or not Omicron is going to be the live virus vaccination that everyone is hoping for, because you have such a great deal of variability with new variants emerging,” he said.

Control

The next phase, following deceleration, is the control phase of the pandemic—or what some are referring to as endemicity. That means that COVID-19 would become integrated into the broad range of infectious diseases we commonly experience, like the flu or the common cold.

“Control means you have it present, but it is present at a level that does not disrupt society,” Fauci says.

He noted that he hopes this will be the case, but he added that it would be possible only if another variant that eludes the immune response does not emerge. Whether or not COVID will be endemic in 2022, Fauci responded: “The answer is, we do not know.”

Governments like Spain and Switzerland have already said that COVID-19 is becoming an endemic disease countries can manage like the flu.

But for COVID to become endemic, there can’t be any more surprises on the transmissibility and its virulence of the virus or any of its future variants.

“I don’t think there is anything predictable about coronavirus,” Lawrence Young, a virologist and professor of molecular oncology at Warwick Medical School, told Fortune.

“Entering an endemic phase is very different from what we’re experiencing at the moment,” Young said. “I think a lot of it is wishful thinking.”

Elimination

The elimination of a pandemic occurs when the virus still exists in the world but it has been eradicated from certain regions or countries. Fauci gives the example of polio, which has been eradicated from many countries in the Global North.

The world is still far from achieving that with COVID, scientists say.

“For a lot of people there has been this hope that there will be a day where victory will be declared. They will say, ‘Today was the end of COVID, and tomorrow we will live in a COVID-free world again.’ I think that is really unrealistic, and not feasible,” Dr. Wafaa El-Sadr, professor of epidemiology and medicine at Columbia University, previously told Fortune.

Eradication

The last stage, eradication, is nearly impossible to reach. Fauci notes smallpox was the only infectious human disease that has ever been eradicated, and he said outright that regarding COVID, “That’s not going to happen with this virus.”

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