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民调:拜登在每个摇摆州的支持率都很低

民调:拜登在每个摇摆州的支持率都很低

LANCE LAMBERT 2021年11月25日
所有这些变化都是春季以来发生的。

民意调查结果很清楚:乔·拜登与总统职位的蜜月期结束了。根据FiveThirtyEight的数据,截至11月24日,拜登的总体支持率仅为42.9%,低于他1月份入主白宫时的53%。在二战后的总统中,只有唐纳德·特朗普在其总统任期的这个时候的支持率比他低(38.4%)。

但对民主党人来说,比表面数字让他们感到忧虑的的是州一级数据。Morning Consult利用10月份进行的民意调查,计算了美国各州登记选民对拜登的支持率。他们发现,拜登目前在32个州处于“水下”(即不支持率大于支持率)状态。在其他18个州,他的净支持率都是正面的,但这些州无论以何种方式衡量都是非常“蓝”的州。

如果你聚焦在摇摆州,情况对白宫来说就更糟糕了:在《财富》杂志在2020年认定的11个摇摆州中,拜登在每个州的支持率都低于预期。其中,他在爱荷华州(-11个百分点)、俄亥俄州(-10个百分点)和亚利桑那州(-9个百分点)的表现最差。紧随其后的是威斯康星州(-7)、宾夕法尼亚州(-5)、佛罗里达州(-5)、北卡罗来纳州(-5)、密歇根州(-4)、内华达州(-3)、乔治亚州(-3)、新罕布什尔州(-2)。应该注意到,每个州都有个位数百分比的选民对拜登的工作表现既不赞成也不反对。

假设他2024年再次参选——白宫本周表示他会参选:如果他输掉所有他目前“水下”州,他将以316比222的压倒性劣势输掉选举。

但是总统连任现在还不是民主党人关心的问题。他们更关注的是2022年,届时民主党将不得不捍卫他们在美国众议院的微弱多数(221对213个席位),以及他们在美国参议院的一票优势。

对众议院议长南希·佩洛西和参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默来说,早期迹象并不乐观。本月早些时候,共和党人赢得了弗吉尼亚州州长竞选,这是自2009年以来的首次。格伦·杨金以12个百分点的优势获胜,超过了拜登在2020年赢得的10.1个百分点的优势。据Morning Consult报道,弗吉尼亚选民开始投票时,拜登的净支持率仅为+3个百分点。在本月赢得这场竞选后不久,共和党人就成为了最大热门,有望在2022年赢得国会参众两院。

所有这些变化都是春季以来发生的。

今年4月,拜登在每个摇摆州的净支持率都是正数(或持平)。当时,拜登在佐治亚州的支持率为+11点,在密歇根州为+11点,在内华达州为+9点,在宾州为+9点。紧随这些州之后,拜登4月份在亚利桑那州(+8)、佛罗里达州(+8)、威斯康星州(+7)、北卡罗来纳州(+7)、新罕布什尔州(+7)和俄亥俄州(+2)的净支持率也很高。而在爱荷华州,他是+0点。

由于新冠疫苗推动了经济复苏,拜登的支持率在整个春季和初夏都保持稳定。但到了8月,支持率开始迅速消退。当月,拜登政府因其对阿富汗撤军的处理而受到尖锐的批评——塔利班似乎在一夜之间夺回了这个国家。几乎在同一时间,美国部分地区的医院因Delta毒株而再次挤满了患者。此外,上个月的通货膨胀率还飙升至31年的高点。

拜登能回到当初吗?从历史上看,总统们在上任第一年支持率下降后,要想反弹是很有难度的。当然,前总统比尔·克林顿是个例外,他在掌舵的第一年支持率下滑后,继续赢得了第二任期。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

民意调查结果很清楚:乔·拜登与总统职位的蜜月期结束了。根据FiveThirtyEight的数据,截至11月24日,拜登的总体支持率仅为42.9%,低于他1月份入主白宫时的53%。在二战后的总统中,只有唐纳德·特朗普在其总统任期的这个时候的支持率比他低(38.4%)。

但对民主党人来说,比表面数字让他们感到忧虑的的是州一级数据。Morning Consult利用10月份进行的民意调查,计算了美国各州登记选民对拜登的支持率。他们发现,拜登目前在32个州处于“水下”(即不支持率大于支持率)状态。在其他18个州,他的净支持率都是正面的,但这些州无论以何种方式衡量都是非常“蓝”的州。

如果你聚焦在摇摆州,情况对白宫来说就更糟糕了:在《财富》杂志在2020年认定的11个摇摆州中,拜登在每个州的支持率都低于预期。其中,他在爱荷华州(-11个百分点)、俄亥俄州(-10个百分点)和亚利桑那州(-9个百分点)的表现最差。紧随其后的是威斯康星州(-7)、宾夕法尼亚州(-5)、佛罗里达州(-5)、北卡罗来纳州(-5)、密歇根州(-4)、内华达州(-3)、乔治亚州(-3)、新罕布什尔州(-2)。应该注意到,每个州都有个位数百分比的选民对拜登的工作表现既不赞成也不反对。

假设他2024年再次参选——白宫本周表示他会参选:如果他输掉所有他目前“水下”州,他将以316比222的压倒性劣势输掉选举。

但是总统连任现在还不是民主党人关心的问题。他们更关注的是2022年,届时民主党将不得不捍卫他们在美国众议院的微弱多数(221对213个席位),以及他们在美国参议院的一票优势。

对众议院议长南希·佩洛西和参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默来说,早期迹象并不乐观。本月早些时候,共和党人赢得了弗吉尼亚州州长竞选,这是自2009年以来的首次。格伦·杨金以12个百分点的优势获胜,超过了拜登在2020年赢得的10.1个百分点的优势。据Morning Consult报道,弗吉尼亚选民开始投票时,拜登的净支持率仅为+3个百分点。在本月赢得这场竞选后不久,共和党人就成为了最大热门,有望在2022年赢得国会参众两院。

所有这些变化都是春季以来发生的。

今年4月,拜登在每个摇摆州的净支持率都是正数(或持平)。当时,拜登在佐治亚州的支持率为+11点,在密歇根州为+11点,在内华达州为+9点,在宾州为+9点。紧随这些州之后,拜登4月份在亚利桑那州(+8)、佛罗里达州(+8)、威斯康星州(+7)、北卡罗来纳州(+7)、新罕布什尔州(+7)和俄亥俄州(+2)的净支持率也很高。而在爱荷华州,他是+0点。

由于新冠疫苗推动了经济复苏,拜登的支持率在整个春季和初夏都保持稳定。但到了8月,支持率开始迅速消退。当月,拜登政府因其对阿富汗撤军的处理而受到尖锐的批评——塔利班似乎在一夜之间夺回了这个国家。几乎在同一时间,美国部分地区的医院因Delta毒株而再次挤满了患者。此外,上个月的通货膨胀率还飙升至31年的高点。

拜登能回到当初吗?从历史上看,总统们在上任第一年支持率下降后,要想反弹是很有难度的。当然,前总统比尔·克林顿是个例外,他在掌舵的第一年支持率下滑后,继续赢得了第二任期。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

The polling is pretty clear: President Joe Biden's honeymoon is over. As of Wednesday, his aggregated approval rating stands at just 42.9%, according to FiveThirtyEight—down from 53% when he entered the White House in January. Among post-World War II presidents, only Donald Trump had a worse approval rating (38.4%) at this point in his presidency.

But what's more concerning for Democrats than the topline figure is the state-level data. Using polling conducted in October, Morning Consult recently calculated Biden's approval rating with registered voters in every U.S. state. The finding? Biden is currently underwater (meaning his disapproval rating is greater than his approval rating) in 32 states. While he has a positive net approval rating in 18 states—which, by any measurement, are very blue states.

When you zoom in on battleground states, things look even worse for the White House: In the 11 states Fortune considered battleground states in 2020, Biden's approval rating is underwater in every single one of them. Of those, he's doing the worst in Iowa (-11 percentage points), Ohio (-10 points), and Arizona (-9 points). Those battleground states are followed by Wisconsin (-7 points), Pennsylvania (-5 points), Florida (-5), North Carolina (-5 points), Michigan (-4 points), Nevada (-3 points), Georgia (-3 points), and New Hampshire (-2 points). (We should note that each of these states have a single-digit percentage of voters who neither approve nor disapprove of Biden's job performance).

Let's say he runs again in 2024—which the White House said this week he will. If he loses every state he's currently underwater in, he'd lose in a 316-to-222 electoral landslide.

But the presidential reelection is hardly what concerns Democratic operatives at the moment. Instead, they're focused on 2022, when Democrats will have to defend their slim U.S. House majority (221 to 213 seats) and their one-vote edge in the U.S. Senate.

The early signs aren't looking good for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Earlier this month, Republicans won the Virginia Gubernatorial race for the first time since 2009, with Glenn Youngkin winning by +1.9 points in a state Biden won by 10.1 points in 2020. According to Morning Consult, as Virginia voters hit the polls, Biden's net approval rating stood at just +3 points. Soon after winning that race this month, Republicans became the clear betting market favorites to win both chambers of Congress in 2022.

All of this is a big change from the spring.

In April, Biden had a positive (or flat) net approval rating in every single battleground state. At that time, Biden was +11 points in Georgia, + 11 points in Michigan, +9 points in Nevada, and +9 points in Pennsylvania. Not too far behind those states in April were his positive net approval ratings in Arizona (+8 points), Florida (+8 points), Wisconsin (+7 points), North Carolina (+7 points), New Hampshire (+7 points), and Ohio (+2 points). While in Iowa, he was +0 points.

Biden's approval rating was holding steady through the spring and early summer as COVID-19 vaccines helped boost the economic recovery. But in August, that popularity began to fade quickly. During that month, the Biden Administration was sharply criticized for its handling of its Afghanistan withdrawal—and the Taliban's recapture the country seemingly overnight. Around that same time, hospitals in parts of the country were filling up again with COVID-19 patients due to the Delta variant. Additionally, inflation last month soared to a 31-year high.

Can Biden recover? Historically speaking, it's challenging for presidents to bounce back after seeing their approval rating sink during their first-year in office. The outlier, of course, is former President Bill Clinton, who went on to win a second-term after his approval rating slipped during his first year at the helm.

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