美股还能投资吗？这位富豪认为泡沫严重
肯·格里芬认为美国股市存在“严重泡沫”。
11月10日，芝加哥亿万富翁肯·格里芬在《纽约时报》（New York Times）举办的DealBook会议上发言时，对持续上涨的美国股市表示担忧。20个月前，新冠疫情曾经令投资者陷入恐慌，但在那之后，美股一路上涨，并且这波行情似乎没有终止的迹象。格里芬经营对冲基金巨头Citadel，并拥有一家全球领先的做市商Citadel Securities。
格里芬说：“我们需要明确的是，自从新冠疫情爆发以来，美股开始了直线上涨的单行道。我们看到市场正在表现出真正泡沫化的迹象，一些相对较小的事件引发了极其剧烈的股价波动。”
美股从2020年3月走出低谷后开始持续攀升，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）上涨超过100%。
美联储（Federal Reserve）史无前例地将利率维持在接近历史最低水平，并且最近才开始减少对债券市场的支持，这是股市暴涨的原因之一。美联储的措施为企业带来了接近两年的低息贷款，并令投资者极其愿意冒险投资，从加密货币到网红股都成为他们的投资对象。格里芬的做市商因为代表Robinhood等知名应用程序执行散户订单，成为举国关注的焦点。对于因为游戏驿站（GameStop）出现的各种阴谋论，格里芬形容这种经历就像是成了一则“冷笑话”里的主人公。
格里芬认为，股票价格日益偏离基本价值值得关注，因为“任何形式的政策失误或者一家公司运气不佳，都将导致股价大幅波动。”
格里芬列举了特斯拉（Tesla）的例子。
该电动汽车厂商的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在推特（Twitter）上就自己是否应该卖掉10%的股份来支付更多税费发起调查，之后，该公司的股价大跌。因为调查结果是马斯克应该出售股份。于是投资者做出了回应，导致特斯拉股价下跌，公司市值蒸发了数千亿美元。
格里芬称他与马斯克相识已久。他表示：“我从未想过股票价格会被推特上的一次民意调查所支配。我们生活在一个截然不同的世界。”
加密货币估值
当然，不止股票在大幅上涨。
在今年早些时候，大批散户蜂拥买入游戏驿站和AMC等网红股之后，许多散户进入了加密货币市场。近几年，加密货币也引起了华尔街金融业巨头的关注，包括大型对冲基金和行动迅速的交易公司，两者都是格里芬的Citadel和Citadel Securities的业务范围。
但格里芬仍然在努力了解这个领域。
他表示：“我们有各种资产类别，它们的价值认定方式截然不同。如果我们谈论一家银行，我们可能会说，它的市盈率应该是12倍。我们也可以认为它的市盈率应该达到13或14倍。但评估加密货币的价值该以什么为依据？归根结底在于‘我是否认为明天会有人为它向我支付更高的价格？’”
最后，格里芬指出，加密货币还需要解决许多问题，才能够像它的拥趸们所坚信的那样真正强大起来。例如，如果消费者的加密货币钱包被盗该由谁赔偿消费者的损失、比特币如何处理环境足迹问题，以及区块链技术有哪些“可靠的商业使用案例”等？目前，格里芬并没有看到区块链的任何商业用途。
他说：“人们专注于层出不穷的新想法和新创意。我喜欢美国人的这种风格。但我却担心人们对加密货币的热情是错误的。”（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
肯·格里芬认为美国股市存在“严重泡沫”。
11月10日，芝加哥亿万富翁肯·格里芬在《纽约时报》（New York Times）举办的DealBook会议上发言时，对持续上涨的美国股市表示担忧。20个月前，新冠疫情曾经令投资者陷入恐慌，但在那之后，美股一路上涨，并且这波行情似乎没有终止的迹象。格里芬经营对冲基金巨头Citadel，并拥有一家全球领先的做市商Citadel Securities。
格里芬说：“我们需要明确的是，自从新冠疫情爆发以来，美股开始了直线上涨的单行道。我们看到市场正在表现出真正泡沫化的迹象，一些相对较小的事件引发了极其剧烈的股价波动。”
美股从2020年3月走出低谷后开始持续攀升，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）上涨超过100%。
美联储（Federal Reserve）史无前例地将利率维持在接近历史最低水平，并且最近才开始减少对债券市场的支持，这是股市暴涨的原因之一。美联储的措施为企业带来了接近两年的低息贷款，并令投资者极其愿意冒险投资，从加密货币到网红股都成为他们的投资对象。格里芬的做市商因为代表Robinhood等知名应用程序执行散户订单，成为举国关注的焦点。对于因为游戏驿站（GameStop）出现的各种阴谋论，格里芬形容这种经历就像是成了一则“冷笑话”里的主人公。
格里芬认为，股票价格日益偏离基本价值值得关注，因为“任何形式的政策失误或者一家公司运气不佳，都将导致股价大幅波动。”
格里芬列举了特斯拉（Tesla）的例子。
该电动汽车厂商的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在推特（Twitter）上就自己是否应该卖掉10%的股份来支付更多税费发起调查，之后，该公司的股价大跌。因为调查结果是马斯克应该出售股份。于是投资者做出了回应，导致特斯拉股价下跌，公司市值蒸发了数千亿美元。
格里芬称他与马斯克相识已久。他表示：“我从未想过股票价格会被推特上的一次民意调查所支配。我们生活在一个截然不同的世界。”
加密货币估值
当然，不止股票在大幅上涨。
在今年早些时候，大批散户蜂拥买入游戏驿站和AMC等网红股之后，许多散户进入了加密货币市场。近几年，加密货币也引起了华尔街金融业巨头的关注，包括大型对冲基金和行动迅速的交易公司，两者都是格里芬的Citadel和Citadel Securities的业务范围。
但格里芬仍然在努力了解这个领域。
他表示：“我们有各种资产类别，它们的价值认定方式截然不同。如果我们谈论一家银行，我们可能会说，它的市盈率应该是12倍。我们也可以认为它的市盈率应该达到13或14倍。但评估加密货币的价值该以什么为依据？归根结底在于‘我是否认为明天会有人为它向我支付更高的价格？’”
最后，格里芬指出，加密货币还需要解决许多问题，才能够像它的拥趸们所坚信的那样真正强大起来。例如，如果消费者的加密货币钱包被盗该由谁赔偿消费者的损失、比特币如何处理环境足迹问题，以及区块链技术有哪些“可靠的商业使用案例”等？目前，格里芬并没有看到区块链的任何商业用途。
他说：“人们专注于层出不穷的新想法和新创意。我喜欢美国人的这种风格。但我却担心人们对加密货币的热情是错误的。”（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Ken Griffin thinks U.S. stocks are "real frothy."
The Chicago billionaire, who runs hedge fund behemoth Citadel and owns market-making giant Citadel Securities, expressed concern on Wednesday while speaking at The New York Times DealBook conference about the seemingly never-ending ride upward in equity markets that has taken place since the COVID-19 pandemic invoked a sense of terror in investors 20 months ago.
"Let's be clear, it has been a one way street since the start of the pandemic straight up," Griffin said. "We're seeing a market that is showing signs of real frothiness, where you've had some pretty significant stock price moves on relatively small events."
Stocks have indeed been on a tear since bottoming out in March 2020, with the S&P 500 climbing more than 100% in that time.
Driving the surge has been an unprecedentedly helpful Federal Reserve that has kept interest rates near rock-bottom levels and has only recently begun drawing back its support from the bond markets. The measures created a nearly two-year-long period of easy money for companies and extreme risk taking by investors in everything from cryptocurrencies to the very same meme stocks that put Griffin's market maker into the national spotlight for its role in executing individual investors' orders on behalf of popular trading apps like Robinhood. On the conspiracy theories that bubbled out of the GameStop saga, Griffin described it like being at the center of a "bad comedy joke."
For Griffin, the growing divide between share prices and fundamental values is a point of rising concern, though, as "any form of either policy error or a company having a bad spell is going to result in a pretty dramatic repricing of equities," he said.
Just take Tesla as an example, Griffin said.
The electric car maker's stock had been battered by investors following CEO Elon Musk's Twitter poll on whether he should sell 10% of his stake to pay more taxes. The survey results said Musk should sell. So, investors responded accordingly, driving Tesla shares downward and evaporating hundreds of billions of dollars worth of market value from the stock in the process.
"I never thought we'd let our stakes be dictated by a poll on Twitter," said Griffin, who added he has known Musk for a long time. "We live in a whole different world."
Crypto valuations
Equities are not alone in their precipitous climb, of course.
After a band of individual investors piled into meme stocks like GameStop and AMC earlier this year, many found their way to the cryptocurrency markets. Crypto has also become a hotbed of interest for Wall Street financial giants in recent years, including both hedge funds and speedy trading shops—both of which fall under Griffin's umbrella with Citadel and Citadel Securities.
But Griffin is still trying to make sense of the space.
"We have a variety of asset classes where the ascertaining of values [is] very difficult," Griffin said. "If you and I think about a bank, we might say, it should trade at 12-times earnings. We could debate it should be 13 or 14. But when you have to value cryptocurrencies, what it the basis that you use for valuation? And it really comes down to, 'Do I think somebody will pay me more for it tomorrow?'"
Ultimately, Griffin says there are a number of questions that crypto still has to address for it to become truly formidable like its fans believe it can be. Among them are who makes a consumer whole when their crypto wallet is stolen, how will Bitcoin reckon with its environmental footprint, and what are the "solid commercial use cases" for blockchain technology, Griffin said. Today, the Citadel CEO does not yet see any.
"People are very focused in a world of new ideas and new creations. I love that part of America," Griffin said. "I worry that some of this passion has been misplaced when it comes to cryptocurrencies."
