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高盛:明年美国房价还将大涨

高盛:明年美国房价还将大涨

LANCE LAMBERT 2021年10月24日
在疫情期间开始的房产市场狂热还有很大的上行空间。

今年5月,《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)发表了一篇名为《面对狂野的房产市场,人们应静观其变》(Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market)的文章。该文章认为,这个“匪夷所思的现象”很快将退出市场。我们不难理解为什么一些房产买家希望对此“静观其变”。毕竟,房价不可能永远地以两位数的增速一直涨下去。然而到目前为止,买家的运气并不好:自该文章刊发以来,房价又上涨了6%。

不幸的是,对于这些袖手旁观的买家来说,坏消息可谓是接踵而至。高盛预测,在接下来的15个月中,也就是到2022年底,美国房价将再次飙升16%。尽管从数字上来看,房价增速将略有放缓——仅过去12个月的增幅就达到了17.7%,但对于买家来说依然是个噩耗。简而言之:这家投行认为,在疫情期间开始的房产市场狂热还有很大的上行空间。

高盛研究员在报告中称:“供需格局并未受到影响,而这一直是我们认为房价会持续多年上涨的基础。在影响美国经济的各类短缺中,房产短缺所持续的时间可能是最长的。”在他们看来,价格并不会在短期内纠正。事实上,他们预测房价在2023年将继续增长6.2%。

为什么房市前景看涨?

尽管房市在最近几个月的增势略有放缓,但高盛表示,市场上依然存在有利于卖方的供需错配形势。高盛研究员对需求格局做出了如下解释:“人口结构的有利局面或将足以阻止房产供应在短期内迅速回归正常化。我们预计,人口结构变化已经将住户形成趋势率推升至约每年130万户。在这个变化中,最重要的一点在于,千禧一代已经迈入了住户形成和购房趋于登顶的年龄区间。”

正如《财富》杂志此前报道的那样,最大一批千禧一代(1989-1993年生)正步入而立之年,也就是他们真正开始考虑首次购房的年龄段,而我们正处于这一时期的中期阶段。受益于经济衰退所带来的低利率房贷的房市,并没有足够的房产存量来满足这一需求。尽管我们知道这一趋势即将到来,但在2008年房市危机过后的10年中,房屋建造却变得过于保守。这也是为什么如今美国存在400万套房产缺口的原因。

2008年房产泡沫给房屋建造带来了毁灭性打击

显然,高盛的预测对于即将购房的人来说是一个噩耗,因为他们认为新冠疫情房市泡沫很快将破灭,然后价格将有所回落。尽管如此,购房者也并不是没有希望。虽然房价下跌的可能性不大,但库存水平再次出现增长,较今春40年以来的新低上升了30%。这意味着获得多次出价(也就是竞价大战)的房产数量将大幅减少。如果这一趋势得以延续,那么就有可能延长房产在市场上的停留时间。尽管这一现象不会带来价格上的优惠,但它至少能给购房者提供更多的时间来做出可能是其人生中最大的财务决定。

当然,并不是所有机构都像高盛那样如此看好房市。房地产数据公司CoreLogic预测美国同期房价增幅仅有2.2%。与此同时,伯恩斯房地产咨询公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)和房地美(Freddie Mac)则预测2022日历年美国房价增幅分别为4%和5.3%。不过也有一个值得注意的例外:Zillow。这家线上房地产市场预测美国房价在未来12个月中将大涨13.6%。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

今年5月,《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)发表了一篇名为《面对狂野的房产市场,人们应静观其变》(Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market)的文章。该文章认为,这个“匪夷所思的现象”很快将退出市场。我们不难理解为什么一些房产买家希望对此“静观其变”。毕竟,房价不可能永远地以两位数的增速一直涨下去。然而到目前为止,买家的运气并不好:自该文章刊发以来,房价又上涨了6%。

不幸的是,对于这些袖手旁观的买家来说,坏消息可谓是接踵而至。高盛预测,在接下来的15个月中,也就是到2022年底,美国房价将再次飙升16%。尽管从数字上来看,房价增速将略有放缓——仅过去12个月的增幅就达到了17.7%,但对于买家来说依然是个噩耗。简而言之:这家投行认为,在疫情期间开始的房产市场狂热还有很大的上行空间。

高盛研究员在报告中称:“供需格局并未受到影响,而这一直是我们认为房价会持续多年上涨的基础。在影响美国经济的各类短缺中,房产短缺所持续的时间可能是最长的。”在他们看来,价格并不会在短期内纠正。事实上,他们预测房价在2023年将继续增长6.2%。

为什么房市前景看涨?

尽管房市在最近几个月的增势略有放缓,但高盛表示,市场上依然存在有利于卖方的供需错配形势。高盛研究员对需求格局做出了如下解释:“人口结构的有利局面或将足以阻止房产供应在短期内迅速回归正常化。我们预计,人口结构变化已经将住户形成趋势率推升至约每年130万户。在这个变化中,最重要的一点在于,千禧一代已经迈入了住户形成和购房趋于登顶的年龄区间。”

正如《财富》杂志此前报道的那样,最大一批千禧一代(1989-1993年生)正步入而立之年,也就是他们真正开始考虑首次购房的年龄段,而我们正处于这一时期的中期阶段。受益于经济衰退所带来的低利率房贷的房市,并没有足够的房产存量来满足这一需求。尽管我们知道这一趋势即将到来,但在2008年房市危机过后的10年中,房屋建造却变得过于保守。这也是为什么如今美国存在400万套房产缺口的原因。

2008年房产泡沫给房屋建造带来了毁灭性打击

显然,高盛的预测对于即将购房的人来说是一个噩耗,因为他们认为新冠疫情房市泡沫很快将破灭,然后价格将有所回落。尽管如此,购房者也并不是没有希望。虽然房价下跌的可能性不大,但库存水平再次出现增长,较今春40年以来的新低上升了30%。这意味着获得多次出价(也就是竞价大战)的房产数量将大幅减少。如果这一趋势得以延续,那么就有可能延长房产在市场上的停留时间。尽管这一现象不会带来价格上的优惠,但它至少能给购房者提供更多的时间来做出可能是其人生中最大的财务决定。

当然,并不是所有机构都像高盛那样如此看好房市。房地产数据公司CoreLogic预测美国同期房价增幅仅有2.2%。与此同时,伯恩斯房地产咨询公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)和房地美(Freddie Mac)则预测2022日历年美国房价增幅分别为4%和5.3%。不过也有一个值得注意的例外:Zillow。这家线上房地产市场预测美国房价在未来12个月中将大涨13.6%。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Back in May, The Atlantic published an article titled “Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market,” which argued that the “ludicrousness” would soon exit the market. It’s understandable why some homebuyers would want to take that “wait it out” approach. After all, home prices can’t go up at double-digit rates forever. But so far, buyers have had no luck: Since that article ran, home prices are up another 6%.

Unfortunately for those sidelined buyers, there’s more bad news. In the next 15 months—through the end of 2022—Goldman Sachs is forecasting U.S. home prices will soar another 16%. While that represents a slight deceleration in the growth of home prices—which are up 17.7% over the past 12 months alone—it’s hardly price relief for buyers. Simply put: The investment bank thinks the housing market frenzy set off during the pandemic has a lot more room to run.

“The supply-demand picture that has been the basis for our call for a multiyear boom in home prices remains intact," the Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in their report. “Of all the shortages afflicting the U.S. economy, the housing shortage might last the longest.” They don’t see prices correcting anytime soon; in fact, they are forecasting another 6.2% jump in 2023.

Why the bullish outlook?

While the housing market has lost some steam in recent months, Goldman Sachs said, there’s still a supply and demand mismatch in the favor of sellers. Here’s how the Goldman Sachs researchers explained the strength on the demand side: “Demographic tailwinds are likely enough to prevent the supply of homes from normalizing quickly in the near term. We estimate that demographic changes—most importantly, millennials moving into the age range where household formation and homebuying tend to peak—have boosted the trend rate of household formation to roughly 1.3 million per year.”

As Fortune has previously reported, we’re in the middle of the five-year period during which the largest chunk of millennials, those born between 1989 and 1993, are hitting their thirties—the age when first-time homebuying really kicks into gear. The housing market—which is also benefiting from recession-induced low mortgage rates—simply doesn’t have enough homes available to meet that demand. We knew this wave was coming, however; in the decade following the 2008 housing crisis, homebuilding was too conservative. That’s why the nation is now under-built by around 4 million homes.

This Goldman Sachs forecast is, of course, terrible news for would-be homebuyers who thought the COVID-19 housing market was bound to pop soon and erase some gains. That said, there are some silver linings for homebuyers. While prices are unlikely to come down, inventory levels are rising again—up 30% since they bottomed out at a 40-year low this spring. That has translated into a substantial decrease in the number of homes seeing multiple bids (a.k.a. bidding wars). If it continues, it would likely increase how long homes sit on the market. That’s not price relief, but it would at least give shoppers more time to make what will likely be the biggest financial decision of their life.

Of course, not everyone is as bullish as Goldman Sachs. CoreLogic, a real estate data firm, is forecasting just a 2.2% uptick in U.S. home prices during the same period. Meanwhile, for the 2022 calendar year, John Burns Real Estate Consulting and Freddie Mac are forecasting home price growth of 4% and 5.3%, respectively. There is one notable exception: Zillow. The online real estate marketplace is forecasting a huge 13.6% appreciation in U.S. home values over the coming 12 months.

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