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印度煤炭储备达到临界,即将爆发能源危机

印度煤炭储备达到临界,即将爆发能源危机

BIMAN MUKHERJI 2021年10月12日
本地煤炭生产停滞和进口煤炭成本激增这两个问题,意味着印度的煤炭短缺可能会延续到冬季。

在全球第四大能源消费国印度,一场严重的电力危机即将爆发。

上周四,印度中央电力管理局(Central Electricity Authority,CEA)警告,由于后疫情时代制造业务激增导致电力需求大幅增加,使发电企业措手不及,全国半数以上发电厂的煤炭储备可能在极短时间内耗尽。

印度评级与研究公司副总监尼廷·班萨尔表示:“没有人能预料到工业需求会以这么快的速度增长,因此发电站并没有补充煤炭库存。现在,煤炭库存量正在一天天减少。”

上周三,印度矿业联合会警告印度煤炭部,煤炭短缺“给煤炭消费者造成了极其危险的局面,他们主要来自铝、钢等行业”,并且工厂可能因此关闭。

与此同时,在印度南部的喀拉拉邦,政府官员已经要求居民日落之后避免使用家用电器以节约用电,另据路透社报道,印度北部多个城市也发生了“计划外停电”。班萨尔称,未来三个月,随着印度的工业需求增长,印度其他邦很可能停电,这将威胁印度的经济复苏。

印度中央电力管理局表示,110座发电厂的煤炭储备已经达到临界水平。为了维持照明和工厂运营,印度135座燃煤电厂的经营者正在抓紧补充燃料,避免印度发生严重的电力危机。但本地煤炭生产停滞和进口煤炭成本激增这两个问题,意味着印度的煤炭短缺可能会延续到冬季。

萧条的矿井

国有的印度煤炭有限公司在印度拥有实质上的垄断地位,印度燃煤发电站使用的煤炭约75%来自该公司。但今年截至8月的5个月内,随着电力需求增长16%,印度煤炭公司的生产却陷入了停滞。该公司在4至8月期间的煤炭产量,与一年前印度深陷新冠疫情时期持平。

新德里智库能源、环境与水委员会的分析师卡西克·加内桑表示:“通常情况下,每年季风季煤炭供应量都会大幅下降。但今年由于季风季较长,煤炭供应呈现出螺旋式上升的局面。”

季风季会减缓煤炭生产,因为暴雨使矿工很难从地下坑道和露天矿坑开采矿石。季风降雨通常在5月底或6月初开始,持续到9月,但今年的雨季却持续到10月初。

加内桑表示,尽管如此,煤炭短缺依旧是可以预见的,不应该演变成一场全国紧急事件。通常情况下,煤炭生产商会通过增加煤炭进口填补产量缺口,但全球煤炭价格却在持续暴涨。10月1日,澳大利亚优质动力煤的价格暴涨至史上最高的203.20美元,较去年8月上涨了四倍。

印度矿业联合会秘书长B.K.巴蒂亚表示:“问题不止是全球煤炭价格高居不下,而是你不可能因为有需求一夜之间就能买到煤炭。你需要提前下订单。”印度矿业联合会是代表印度私营矿业公司和金属公司的行业机构。

成本上涨

进口煤炭成本上涨的一个原因是印度的邻国中国。

与印度一样,随着经济复苏,中国的电力需求激增。但中国的污染防治规定减少了国内的煤炭产量,迫使发电企业只能增加进口,结果持续推高了全球煤炭价格。

惠誉解决方案高级大宗商品分析师塞布林·乔德胡里表示:“过去几个月,由于供应紧张导致动力煤价格上涨,使许多燃煤发电厂的运营和发电变得更不划算。”

中国政府分批释放了部分煤炭储备,并命令国内煤炭企业增加产量,希望减缓国内的停电问题。但乔德胡里表示,随着供暖需求增加,中国的煤炭短缺将持续到整个冬季。

对于印度而言,这意味着对进口煤炭的竞争将延续到明年。印度电力部长拉吉·库马尔·辛格本周在接受《印度快报》采访时警告,电力供应不足可能再持续六个月。

加内桑表示:“需要思考的一个问题是,我们如何避免这种季节性波动,保证煤炭供应能够及时满足发电厂的需求。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

在全球第四大能源消费国印度,一场严重的电力危机即将爆发。

上周四,印度中央电力管理局(Central Electricity Authority,CEA)警告,由于后疫情时代制造业务激增导致电力需求大幅增加,使发电企业措手不及,全国半数以上发电厂的煤炭储备可能在极短时间内耗尽。

印度评级与研究公司副总监尼廷·班萨尔表示:“没有人能预料到工业需求会以这么快的速度增长,因此发电站并没有补充煤炭库存。现在,煤炭库存量正在一天天减少。”

上周三,印度矿业联合会警告印度煤炭部,煤炭短缺“给煤炭消费者造成了极其危险的局面,他们主要来自铝、钢等行业”,并且工厂可能因此关闭。

与此同时,在印度南部的喀拉拉邦,政府官员已经要求居民日落之后避免使用家用电器以节约用电,另据路透社报道,印度北部多个城市也发生了“计划外停电”。班萨尔称,未来三个月,随着印度的工业需求增长,印度其他邦很可能停电,这将威胁印度的经济复苏。

印度中央电力管理局表示,110座发电厂的煤炭储备已经达到临界水平。为了维持照明和工厂运营,印度135座燃煤电厂的经营者正在抓紧补充燃料,避免印度发生严重的电力危机。但本地煤炭生产停滞和进口煤炭成本激增这两个问题,意味着印度的煤炭短缺可能会延续到冬季。

萧条的矿井

国有的印度煤炭有限公司在印度拥有实质上的垄断地位,印度燃煤发电站使用的煤炭约75%来自该公司。但今年截至8月的5个月内,随着电力需求增长16%,印度煤炭公司的生产却陷入了停滞。该公司在4至8月期间的煤炭产量,与一年前印度深陷新冠疫情时期持平。

新德里智库能源、环境与水委员会的分析师卡西克·加内桑表示:“通常情况下,每年季风季煤炭供应量都会大幅下降。但今年由于季风季较长,煤炭供应呈现出螺旋式上升的局面。”

季风季会减缓煤炭生产,因为暴雨使矿工很难从地下坑道和露天矿坑开采矿石。季风降雨通常在5月底或6月初开始,持续到9月,但今年的雨季却持续到10月初。

加内桑表示,尽管如此,煤炭短缺依旧是可以预见的,不应该演变成一场全国紧急事件。通常情况下,煤炭生产商会通过增加煤炭进口填补产量缺口,但全球煤炭价格却在持续暴涨。10月1日,澳大利亚优质动力煤的价格暴涨至史上最高的203.20美元,较去年8月上涨了四倍。

印度矿业联合会秘书长B.K.巴蒂亚表示:“问题不止是全球煤炭价格高居不下,而是你不可能因为有需求一夜之间就能买到煤炭。你需要提前下订单。”印度矿业联合会是代表印度私营矿业公司和金属公司的行业机构。

成本上涨

进口煤炭成本上涨的一个原因是印度的邻国中国。

与印度一样,随着经济复苏,中国的电力需求激增。但中国的污染防治规定减少了国内的煤炭产量,迫使发电企业只能增加进口,结果持续推高了全球煤炭价格。

惠誉解决方案高级大宗商品分析师塞布林·乔德胡里表示:“过去几个月,由于供应紧张导致动力煤价格上涨,使许多燃煤发电厂的运营和发电变得更不划算。”

中国政府分批释放了部分煤炭储备,并命令国内煤炭企业增加产量,希望减缓国内的停电问题。但乔德胡里表示,随着供暖需求增加,中国的煤炭短缺将持续到整个冬季。

对于印度而言,这意味着对进口煤炭的竞争将延续到明年。印度电力部长拉吉·库马尔·辛格本周在接受《印度快报》采访时警告,电力供应不足可能再持续六个月。

加内桑表示:“需要思考的一个问题是,我们如何避免这种季节性波动,保证煤炭供应能够及时满足发电厂的需求。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

India, the world’s fourth-largest energy consumer, is facing a crippling power crisis.

On Thursday, India’s Central Electricity Authority (CEA) warned that coal reserves at over half of the country’s power plants could burn out in three days or less as a post-pandemic surge in manufacturing spiked demand for power and caught power producers off guard.

“Nobody thought that the industrial demand would pick up so quickly, so power stations did not bother to replenish their coal inventory,” says Nitin Bansal, associate director at India Ratings and Research. “But now stocks are depleting day by day.”

On Wednesday, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries warned India's Ministry of Coal that the coal shortage had created "an immensely precarious situation for coal consumers, mainly for the aluminium and steel industry" and said the situation could cause factories to close.

Meanwhile, in the southern state of Kerala, officials have asked households to avoid using electrical appliances after sunset, in order to conserve power while Reuters reports "unscheduled outages" have flickered across cities in north India, too. Bansal says power outages in other Indian states are likely to follow over the next three months as India’s industrial demand strengthens, threatening to curtail the country’s economic recovery.

According to the CEA, coal stocks at 110 of the plants haver hit critical levels. To keep the lights on and factories running, operators of India’s 135 coal-fired plant operators are racing to replenish feedstock and save India from a bruising power crunch. But the twin issues of stagnant local production and surging costs of coal imports means India's coal shortage could last through the winter.

Stagnant pits

State-owned Coal India Limited has a virtual monopoly on coal mines in India, which produce roughly 75% of the coal burned in India’s coal-fired power stations. But in the five months to August this year, as demand for energy increased 16%, production at Coal India Limited stagnated. The company’s mines produced the same volume of coal between April and August as they extracted the year before, when India was in the depths of a COVID slump.

“Usually, there is a dip in coal supplies every year during the monsoon season,” says Karthik Ganesan, an analyst with the New Delhi-based thinktank Council on Energy, Environment and Water. "But this year the situation spiraled as a result of the prolonged monsoon season.”

The monsoon season slows coal production because heavy rains make it difficult for miners to extract the rock from underground shafts and open pits. Monsoon rains usually start at the end of May or in early June and last till September but, this year, the showers continued until early October.

Even so, Ganesan says, the coal shortage could have been anticipated before it snowballed into a national emergency. Ordinarily coal producers fill production shortfalls by increasing coal imports, but global prices of coal have surged worldwide. On October 1, high-quality Australian thermal coal prices surged to a record $203.20, a four-fold increase from August last year.

“The problem is not only the high global price of coal, but you can’t suddenly import overnight because you have a need. You need to place orders in advance,” says B.K. Bhatia, additional secretary-general of the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries, a trade body that represents private miners and metal firms.

Rising costs

One reason for the increased cost of imported coal: India’s neighbor, China.

Like India, Chinese demand for power has surged as its economy recovers from COVID-19. But Chinese regulations designed to reduce pollution have curtailed coal production in the country, forcing power producers to import more—pushing global prices upwards.

“Thermal coal prices have rallied in past months due to the supply crunch, making it all the more uneconomical for many coal power plants to operate and produce coal power,” says Sabrin Chowdhury, senior commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions.

Beijing has tried to mitigate China’s own electricity outages by releasing batches of coal reserves and ordering domestic coal producers to increase output. But, Chowdhury says, the shortage in China will likely last throughout the winter as demand for heating increases.

For India, that means competition for imports will continue until next year. In an interview with Indian Express this week, India’s Power Minister Raj Kumar Singh warned that the power shortage could continue for another six months.

“The question that needs to be asked is, how do we avert this seasonal swing and ensure that coal is made available to plants in a timely manner,” says Ganesan.

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