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美国8月零售额超预期大涨,唯有一个行业拖了后腿

美国8月零售额超预期大涨,唯有一个行业拖了后腿

Reade Pickert, 彭博社 2021年09月22日
不计汽车销售,美国的销售额在8月增长了1.8%,是五个月以来最大的增幅。

美国零售额在8月出现了出乎意料的增长,大多数门类的销售额均有所上升,大大抵消了汽车销售的疲软,并凸显了商品消费需求的韧性。

9月16日,美国商务部(Commerce Department)的数据显示,今年8月,零售额增长了0.7%(7月,美国零售额下跌了1.8%)。不计汽车销售,销售额在8月增长了1.8%,是五个月以来最大的增幅。

在彭博社(Bloomberg)对多名经济学家的调查中,预估中值显示零售总额将出现0.7%的下滑,其预测范围区间为3.3%的降幅到+1.1%的增幅。

报告发布后,美国股票指数期货缩减跌幅,债券应声下跌。

出人意料的销售额改善显示了商品需求的健康度,其部分原因在于数百万有孩子的家庭在开学季开始采购和消费。该报告显示,在线零售商、普通商品店、日用品商店,以及百货店的销售额均有所上升。

德尔塔变种病毒压抑了一些服务的需求,例如旅行和休闲,这一点可能也让美国人转而将其开支投入到商品购买当中。零售数据显示,餐馆与酒吧是报告中8月唯一营收停滞不前的服务开支门类。与此同时,百货店销售额上升了2.1%。

Capital Economics的美国高级经济师迈克尔·皮尔斯在一则纪要中表示:“尽管商品消费比我们预计的更加强劲,但这可能只会加剧最近几个月出现的短缺现象。同时,餐馆与酒吧消费的毫无起色意味着服务消费领域更广泛的恢复可能难以实现。”

新冠感染病例的激增、价格的上涨,以及持续的供应链挑战,促使人们在近几周不断下调第三季度经济增速预测。

受德尔塔变种病毒对服务开支的影响,高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的经济学家在9月初将其第三季度消费预测下调至0.5%。

门类细分

美国商务部的报告显示,在13大门类中,有10个门类的销售额出现了增长。汽车、电子和家电卖场,以及体育用品和特定商店的销售额出现了下滑。

汽车与零部件销售额在8月下滑了3.6%,7月下滑了4.6%。Wards Automotive Group称,这反映了不断上升的价格以及有限的库存,而这两个因素在一年多的时间中将汽车销售压至其最低水平。

近几个月以来,随着各大企业将材料和劳动力限制导致的额外成本(至少是部分成本)转接给消费者,美国民众经历了多次商品和服务的涨价。这一点对零售行业数据有多大的影响我们并不清楚,因为该数字并未针对价格变化进行调整。

所谓的对照组销售额(用于计算GDP且不含餐饮服务、汽车经销商、建筑材料店和加油站)在8月跃升了2.5%,是五个月以来的最大增幅。(财富中文网)

克里斯蒂·朔伊布勒、索菲·卡罗内罗和奥利维亚·罗克曼对本文亦有贡献。

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

美国零售额在8月出现了出乎意料的增长,大多数门类的销售额均有所上升,大大抵消了汽车销售的疲软,并凸显了商品消费需求的韧性。

9月16日,美国商务部(Commerce Department)的数据显示,今年8月,零售额增长了0.7%(7月,美国零售额下跌了1.8%)。不计汽车销售,销售额在8月增长了1.8%,是五个月以来最大的增幅。

在彭博社(Bloomberg)对多名经济学家的调查中,预估中值显示零售总额将出现0.7%的下滑,其预测范围区间为3.3%的降幅到+1.1%的增幅。

报告发布后,美国股票指数期货缩减跌幅,债券应声下跌。

出人意料的销售额改善显示了商品需求的健康度,其部分原因在于数百万有孩子的家庭在开学季开始采购和消费。该报告显示,在线零售商、普通商品店、日用品商店,以及百货店的销售额均有所上升。

德尔塔变种病毒压抑了一些服务的需求,例如旅行和休闲,这一点可能也让美国人转而将其开支投入到商品购买当中。零售数据显示,餐馆与酒吧是报告中8月唯一营收停滞不前的服务开支门类。与此同时,百货店销售额上升了2.1%。

Capital Economics的美国高级经济师迈克尔·皮尔斯在一则纪要中表示:“尽管商品消费比我们预计的更加强劲,但这可能只会加剧最近几个月出现的短缺现象。同时,餐馆与酒吧消费的毫无起色意味着服务消费领域更广泛的恢复可能难以实现。”

新冠感染病例的激增、价格的上涨,以及持续的供应链挑战,促使人们在近几周不断下调第三季度经济增速预测。

受德尔塔变种病毒对服务开支的影响,高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的经济学家在9月初将其第三季度消费预测下调至0.5%。

门类细分

美国商务部的报告显示,在13大门类中,有10个门类的销售额出现了增长。汽车、电子和家电卖场,以及体育用品和特定商店的销售额出现了下滑。

汽车与零部件销售额在8月下滑了3.6%,7月下滑了4.6%。Wards Automotive Group称,这反映了不断上升的价格以及有限的库存,而这两个因素在一年多的时间中将汽车销售压至其最低水平。

近几个月以来,随着各大企业将材料和劳动力限制导致的额外成本(至少是部分成本)转接给消费者,美国民众经历了多次商品和服务的涨价。这一点对零售行业数据有多大的影响我们并不清楚,因为该数字并未针对价格变化进行调整。

所谓的对照组销售额(用于计算GDP且不含餐饮服务、汽车经销商、建筑材料店和加油站)在8月跃升了2.5%,是五个月以来的最大增幅。(财富中文网)

克里斯蒂·朔伊布勒、索菲·卡罗内罗和奥利维亚·罗克曼对本文亦有贡献。

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

US. retail sales rose unexpectedly in August as a pickup in purchases across most categories more than offset weakness at auto dealers, showing resilient consumer demand for merchandise.

The value of overall retail purchases climbed 0.7% in August following a downwardly revised 1.8% decrease in July, Commerce Department figures showed on September 16. Excluding autos, sales advanced 1.8% in August, the largest gain in five months.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.7% decline in overall retail sales, with forecasts ranging from a 3.3% drop to a 1.1% gain.

US. stock-index futures pared losses and bonds slipped after the report.

The surprising improvement in sales, underpinned in part by back-to-school shopping and payments for millions of families with children, suggests healthy demand for goods. The report showed firmer receipts at online retailers, general merchandise stores, furniture outlets and grocery stores.

The Delta variant is curbing demand for services such as travel and leisure, which may be allowing Americans to shift their spending back to goods. The retail sales data showed receipts at restaurants and bars, the only services-spending category in the report, stagnated in August. Meantime, grocery-store receipts climbed 2.1%.

“While spending on goods was much stronger than we anticipated, that presumably will just add to the shortages seen in recent months, while the flatlining of spending in restaurants and bars suggest that the broader recovery in services consumption probably faltered,” Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

A surge in COVID-19 infections, rising prices and persistent supply chain challenges prompted a wave of downgrades to third-quarter economic growth forecasts in recent weeks.

Earlier September, economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded their third-quarter consumption forecast to a 0.5% annualized decline because of delta’s impact on services spending.

Category breakdown

According to the Commerce Department’s report, 10 of 13 categories registered sales increases. Sales decreased at car dealers, electronics and appliances outlets and sporting goods and hobby stores.

Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales fell 3.6% in August after a 4.6% slide a month earlier. That reflects the surging prices and limited inventory that have depressed auto sales to their weakest level in more than a year, according to Wards Automotive Group.

Americans have also been confronted with higher prices across a variety of goods and services in recent months as businesses pass on—at least in part—extra costs associated with constraints on materials and labor. The degree to which that played a role in the retail sales data is not clear as the figures are not adjusted for price changes.

So-called control group sales, which are used to calculate gross domestic product and exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, jumped 2.5% in August—the most in five months.

With assistance from Kristy Scheuble, Sophie Caronello and Olivia Rockeman.

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