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特斯拉要赚多少钱,才能配得上现在的身价?

特斯拉要赚多少钱,才能配得上现在的身价?

Shawn Tully 2021年08月03日
即便第二季度利润大,特斯拉仍然是美国估值最高的股票。

特斯拉第二季度创纪录的收益水平让其拥趸们看到:这家电动汽车制造商的盈利能力已迈入新的高度,并将不断提升。在他们看来,虽然特斯拉估值看似高得难以置信,但实际上仍算便宜,7月26日发布的令人鼓舞的数据就是很好的证明。

不过,特斯拉真正的信徒可能也会注意到,即便结合强劲的第二季度利润来衡量,特斯拉仍然是美国估值最贵的超高市值股,而且还是遥遥领先那种。即使第二季度业绩标志着特斯拉站上一个更高的起点,但为了证明其估值的合理性,特斯拉需要在2028年年中之前达到一个仅有寥寥数家科技巨头有过的高利润水平。可想而知,对一家汽车制造公司而言,达成这个目标是何其艰难。更何况特斯拉能以这一超高速发展的可能性很小。

特斯拉与其他超高市值股的估值比较

特斯拉在第二季度盈利突破十亿大关,按照美国通用会计准则(GAAP)计算,其净利润高达11.42亿美元,为前四个季度平均值的两倍还多。假设特斯拉进入“新常态”,公司将继续保持第二季度的利润水平,其年利润将达到46亿美元。那么在标普500指数中,市盈率从低到高,特斯拉将身处何处?

我们按照特斯拉7月26日(第二季度业绩公告日)当天6,330亿美元的市值,以年利润46亿美元的基准计算,其市盈率为139倍。(顺便提一下,如果采用较为传统的方法,以之前四个季度的实际利润为分母计算,特斯拉的市盈率为333倍。相比之下,139倍的市盈率倍数要低得多)为便于与标普500指数成分股进行比较,《财富》采用了与特斯拉相同的“经调整市盈率”,即假定这些公司在接下来的三个季度里会重复最近一个季度的盈利表现,从而获得其利润数据,并以此为依据最终计算出各成分股的市盈率。

在市值超过1,500亿美元的52家公司中,NextEra Energy(美国最大的电力公用事业公司,市值1,510亿美元)“经调整”市盈率为147倍,是唯一一家超过特斯拉的公司,这可能会让习惯一骑绝尘的埃隆•马斯克有点不适应。由于会计准则变更以及一家核电厂退役的相关成本,导致NextEra Energy盈利下降了80%左右。显然,与特斯拉不同,NextEra的高市盈率并非高估值所致,而是因为其一度颇受追捧。

除了NextEra以外,在市值超过1,000亿美元的86家公司中,只有ServiceNow(市值为1,150亿美元)“经调整”市盈率高于特斯拉。ServiceNow是一家帮助企业管理数字工作流的云计算供应商。虽然按照美国通用会计准则其季度利润仍然极低,但投资者认为其未来前景光明。受此影响,ServiceNow“经调整”市盈率高达352倍。在市值超过1,500亿美元的企业中,Salesforce(市值为1,470亿美元)经调整市盈率为122倍,是另一家除NextEra和特斯拉之外经调整市盈率超过100倍的公司。至于其他巨头公司,Netflix经调整市盈率为42倍,亚马逊为58倍,英伟达(NVIDIA)为63倍,而贝宝(PayPal)为82倍。

进入新阶段后,特斯拉需要多久才能回报投资者?

特斯拉目前市值是Salesforce 4.5倍、是ServiceNow的近6倍。投资者正指望这些明星企业在未来创造巨大的利润。他们盼望特斯拉呈现类似的快速增长。但不同之处在于,为了给股东带来丰厚回报,特斯拉需要达成一个看似不可实现的目标。

我们假设奇迹会出现,那么特斯拉需要在未来七年里实现至少10%的年度回报率。同样,我们假设特斯拉不会派息,以便所有红利都会计入资本利得。为创造奇迹,特斯拉的市值需要从目前的6,330亿美元翻番至1.266万亿美元,这相当于亚马逊和Alphabet当前市值的2/3。按25倍的高市盈率计算,特斯拉将需要实现510亿美元的年度净利润。从46亿美元到510亿美元,利润年增长率需要达到41%。目前,年度利润在500亿美元左右的美国公司只有苹果、微软、Alphabet、伯克希尔•哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)。

值得注意的是,特斯拉第二季度收益因出售碳积分(这一类别将在今后快速下降)所获的3.54亿美元以及异常低的公司税率而被夸大。通过更为准确的衡量方法得出的可重复利润可能为8亿美元,比官方数字低30%。特斯拉的年化自由现金流也低于其报告的24.8亿美元。

不过,特斯拉依然是一家超高市值公司,无论在何种情况下,投资者为当前每一分收益的付出都比其他公司要高得多。虽然特斯拉的表现已堪称卓越,奈何华尔街给这家伟大的公司设定了高不可攀的目标,以至其无法逾越。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

特斯拉第二季度创纪录的收益水平让其拥趸们看到:这家电动汽车制造商的盈利能力已迈入新的高度,并将不断提升。在他们看来,虽然特斯拉估值看似高得难以置信,但实际上仍算便宜,7月26日发布的令人鼓舞的数据就是很好的证明。

不过,特斯拉真正的信徒可能也会注意到,即便结合强劲的第二季度利润来衡量,特斯拉仍然是美国估值最贵的超高市值股,而且还是遥遥领先那种。即使第二季度业绩标志着特斯拉站上一个更高的起点,但为了证明其估值的合理性,特斯拉需要在2028年年中之前达到一个仅有寥寥数家科技巨头有过的高利润水平。可想而知,对一家汽车制造公司而言,达成这个目标是何其艰难。更何况特斯拉能以这一超高速发展的可能性很小。

特斯拉与其他超高市值股的估值比较

特斯拉在第二季度盈利突破十亿大关,按照美国通用会计准则(GAAP)计算,其净利润高达11.42亿美元,为前四个季度平均值的两倍还多。假设特斯拉进入“新常态”,公司将继续保持第二季度的利润水平,其年利润将达到46亿美元。那么在标普500指数中,市盈率从低到高,特斯拉将身处何处?

我们按照特斯拉7月26日(第二季度业绩公告日)当天6,330亿美元的市值,以年利润46亿美元的基准计算,其市盈率为139倍。(顺便提一下,如果采用较为传统的方法,以之前四个季度的实际利润为分母计算,特斯拉的市盈率为333倍。相比之下,139倍的市盈率倍数要低得多)为便于与标普500指数成分股进行比较,《财富》采用了与特斯拉相同的“经调整市盈率”,即假定这些公司在接下来的三个季度里会重复最近一个季度的盈利表现,从而获得其利润数据,并以此为依据最终计算出各成分股的市盈率。

在市值超过1,500亿美元的52家公司中,NextEra Energy(美国最大的电力公用事业公司,市值1,510亿美元)“经调整”市盈率为147倍,是唯一一家超过特斯拉的公司,这可能会让习惯一骑绝尘的埃隆•马斯克有点不适应。由于会计准则变更以及一家核电厂退役的相关成本,导致NextEra Energy盈利下降了80%左右。显然,与特斯拉不同,NextEra的高市盈率并非高估值所致,而是因为其一度颇受追捧。

除了NextEra以外,在市值超过1,000亿美元的86家公司中,只有ServiceNow(市值为1,150亿美元)“经调整”市盈率高于特斯拉。ServiceNow是一家帮助企业管理数字工作流的云计算供应商。虽然按照美国通用会计准则其季度利润仍然极低,但投资者认为其未来前景光明。受此影响,ServiceNow“经调整”市盈率高达352倍。在市值超过1,500亿美元的企业中,Salesforce(市值为1,470亿美元)经调整市盈率为122倍,是另一家除NextEra和特斯拉之外经调整市盈率超过100倍的公司。至于其他巨头公司,Netflix经调整市盈率为42倍,亚马逊为58倍,英伟达(NVIDIA)为63倍,而贝宝(PayPal)为82倍。

进入新阶段后,特斯拉需要多久才能回报投资者?

特斯拉目前市值是Salesforce 4.5倍、是ServiceNow的近6倍。投资者正指望这些明星企业在未来创造巨大的利润。他们盼望特斯拉呈现类似的快速增长。但不同之处在于,为了给股东带来丰厚回报,特斯拉需要达成一个看似不可实现的目标。

我们假设奇迹会出现,那么特斯拉需要在未来七年里实现至少10%的年度回报率。同样,我们假设特斯拉不会派息,以便所有红利都会计入资本利得。为创造奇迹,特斯拉的市值需要从目前的6,330亿美元翻番至1.266万亿美元,这相当于亚马逊和Alphabet当前市值的2/3。按25倍的高市盈率计算,特斯拉将需要实现510亿美元的年度净利润。从46亿美元到510亿美元,利润年增长率需要达到41%。目前,年度利润在500亿美元左右的美国公司只有苹果、微软、Alphabet、伯克希尔•哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)。

值得注意的是,特斯拉第二季度收益因出售碳积分(这一类别将在今后快速下降)所获的3.54亿美元以及异常低的公司税率而被夸大。通过更为准确的衡量方法得出的可重复利润可能为8亿美元,比官方数字低30%。特斯拉的年化自由现金流也低于其报告的24.8亿美元。

不过,特斯拉依然是一家超高市值公司,无论在何种情况下,投资者为当前每一分收益的付出都比其他公司要高得多。虽然特斯拉的表现已堪称卓越,奈何华尔街给这家伟大的公司设定了高不可攀的目标,以至其无法逾越。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

For Tesla fans, its record earnings for Q2 signal that the EV-maker's profitability just reached a new gear and will keep accelerating. In their view, the encouraging numbers released on July 26 strengthen the bull case that what looks like an incredibly rich valuation is really a bargain.

Tesla true believers, however, might note that by one measure incorporating its strong Q2 profits, it remains America's priciest mega-cap stock by a wide margin. Even if its second quarter results mark a new, far-higher starting point, to justify its valuation Tesla's profits would need to reach levels by mid-2028 that only a few tech titans, let alone a car company, have ever achieved. The odds Tesla can race at those super-swift speeds are long.

Tesla's valuation versus other mega-caps

For Q2, Tesla broke the billion barrier, posting GAAP net income of $1.142 billion, more than triple the average for the previous four quarters. Let's assume that Tesla's hit a "new normal," so that its profits are now running at the Q2 pace, or $4.6 billion a year. Where does that put its price-to-earnings multiple on the spectrum from ultra-low to super-elevated in the S&P 500?

At Tesla's market cap of $633 billion on July 26, the day of its Q2 announcement, its PE stood at 139, based on our benchmark of $4.6 billion in annual earnings. (By the way, that's vastly cheaper than using the more traditional denominator of actual profits over the trailing four quarters. By that metric, Tesla's PE is 333.) For comparison, Fortune calculated a profit number––what we'll call our "adjusted PE"––for all S&P 500 companies using the metric applied to Tesla: projecting that they repeat earnings in the most recent quarter for the following three quarters.

Of the 52 companies whose valuations exceed $150 billion, only one had a "adjusted" PE higher than Tesla's 139, and it was the antithesis of a go-go sensation like Elon Musk's speedster. NextEra Energy ($151 billion), America's largest electric utility, recorded a PE of 147. The reason: An almost 80% fall in earnings owing to a change in accounting standards and costs in de-commissioning a nuclear plant. Clearly, NextEra posted a giant multiple not because it is richly valued like Tesla, but due to a a big one-time hit.

Besides NextEra, only one company of the 86 with a market caps of over $100 billion had a higher "adjusted" PE than Tesla's. ServiceNow ($115 billion) is a provider of cloud computing platforms that help companies manage their digital workflows. Though its GAAP quarterly earnings are still extremely slim, investors see great times ahead. They've awarded ServiceNow a multiple based on Q2 profits of 352. Excluding NextEra, only a single enterprise besides Tesla valued at over $150 billion had an adjusted PE of over 100. That was Salesforce.com ($147 billion) at 122. As for other high-flyers, Netflix registered 42, Amazon 58, NVIDIA 63, and PayPal 82.

From this new plateau, how fast must Tesla race to reward investors?

Tesla needs to build on a market cap that's four-and-a-half times the size Salesforce's valuation, and dwarfs ServiceNow's almost six-to-one. Investors are counting on those shooting stars to deliver gigantic earnings growth going forward. They're expecting a similarly rapid ascent from Tesla. The difference is that to enrich shareholders, Tesla would need to achieve an absolute number so gigantic it looks virtually impossible.

Let's assume that as the riskiest of risky plays, Tesla will need to deliver annual returns of at least 10% over the next seven years. We'll also assume it doesn't pay dividends, so that all the bounty will come in capital gains. Getting there would require doubling its market cap from today's $633 billion to $1.266 trillion, two thirds today's valuation for Amazon and Alphabet. At a lofty PE of 25, Tesla would need to achieve net profits of $51 billion a year. Getting from our $4.6 billion to $51 billion would demand profit growth of 41% a year. Today, the only U.S. companies earning in the $50 billion range and over are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase.

It's worth noting that Tesla's Q1 earnings were inflated by $354 million in sales of environmental credits to rival automakers, a category that will decline rapidly going forward, as well as an unusually low corporate tax rate. A more accurate measure of repeatable profits might be $800 million, 30% below the official number. Tesla's free cash flow is also lower than its reported earnings at an annualized $2.48 billion.

Tesla remains the megacap where investors pay more for every dollar in current earnings than any other, in almost all cases a lot more. Tesla's an Olympic-quality performer. But Wall Street's set a bar too high for this great athlete to clear.

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