美国楼市要出大事，大部分政府援助和支持即将停止
在新冠疫情导致经济衰退的最初几周，美国房地产市场的崩溃却似乎不可避免。然而结果相反，泡沫的破灭并没有产生严重后果。政府的支持、经济不景气导致的低利率和急切的购房需求共同推动了美国房地产市场的繁荣。自疫情爆发以来，美国的中位房价上涨了24%，这个数字着实令人震惊。
但大部分的政府援助和支持即将停止，止赎暂停令将于7月31日结束。这项政策旨在防止联邦政府取消抵押贷款的赎回权。9月30日，允许部分借款人暂停还款的抵押贷款延期计划将失效。自疫情爆发以来，已有700多万房产持有人加入了抵押贷款延期计划。随着经济好转，这个数字有所下降。截至7月11日，仍有占美国抵押贷款3.5%的175万借款人加入了抵押贷款延期计划。
自2008年房市崩盘后，美国止赎权危机一度非常严重，部分原因是数千万财务紧张的房产持有人资不抵债，即借款人的剩余抵押贷款余额大于房屋价值，因而他们别无选择，只能选择止赎。但今年同样财政拮据的房主却不太可能出现这种情况。房屋价值减去未偿付的抵押贷款后，这些房主可能仍然拥有相当高的房屋净值。如果他们无法偿还抵押贷款，可以干脆将房屋出售，让房产进入当前炙手可热的房地产市场中。
目前受抵押贷款延期计划保护的175万房主中，即使只有一小部分选择出售房屋，没有选择偿还抵押贷款，也可能对历来紧张的房地产市场造成重大影响。根据全美房地产经纪人协会的数据，目前只有137万套住房可供出售。而在过去的40年间，任何时候美国平均都有250万套房产代售，今年的房屋库存已经降至自上世纪80年代有数据以来的最低水平。
“供应格局中存在一个不确定因素，当房主处于抵押贷款延期期间，房屋可能发生会变化。一些人将回到工作岗位，获得收入，与他们的贷款人一起调整贷款条款，从而允许他们继续住在自己的房子里。而其他人就没那么幸运了，他们会失去他们的房子，”房地产市场研究公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里•沃尔夫告诉《财富》杂志：“除非再次延长暂缓期，否则我们应该可以预见到，明年其中一些房屋将会出现在市场上。”
这就引发了一个问题，有多少房主可能会出售他们的资产？为了找到答案，《财富》杂志对Home.LLC的研究人员进行了采访。Home.LLC是一家初创公司，为购房者提供首付援助，从而换取部分利润。最终《财富》杂志发现，如果政府不选择延长抵押贷款延期计划，那么根据Home.LLC的预测模型，今年晚些时候房屋库存还将增加11%，可能不足以令价格出现下降。
“对拖欠贷款的房主来说，较高的房屋净值会降低止赎的可能性，因为人们可以重新融资或出售房屋，避免拖欠抵押贷款。” Home.LLC的首席执行官尼克•沙阿表示。选择出售的人群不太可能改变市场。考虑到目前房产库存处在40年间的低点，他表示：“预计未来房产库存增加并不太多，因而我们预计，即使抵押贷款延期计划结束，房价也将继续快速上涨。”
虽然抵押贷款延期计划有可能失效，但并非必然。这项计划最初来自2020年3月耗资2.2万亿美元的《关爱法案》，现在已经延期了三次。最近一次延期来自拜登政府，6月下旬政府宣布将延期时间延长至9月30日。然而到目前为止，白宫还没有就再次延长时限有过任何暗示。
“许多退出抵押贷款延期计划的房主正在恢复到疫情前的收入水平，不再面临疫情导致的财务困难。” 7月23日白宫在一份声明中写道：“对于有能力支付疫情前每月抵押贷款的房主及部分相关机构，评级机构将继续对抵押贷款服务机构提供援助，允许借款人在不增加借款成本的情况下，将未支付的贷款推迟到抵押贷款的最后期限。”（财富中文网）
译者：葛云
在新冠疫情导致经济衰退的最初几周，美国房地产市场的崩溃却似乎不可避免。然而结果相反，泡沫的破灭并没有产生严重后果。政府的支持、经济不景气导致的低利率和急切的购房需求共同推动了美国房地产市场的繁荣。自疫情爆发以来，美国的中位房价上涨了24%，这个数字着实令人震惊。
但大部分的政府援助和支持即将停止，止赎暂停令将于7月31日结束。这项政策旨在防止联邦政府取消抵押贷款的赎回权。9月30日，允许部分借款人暂停还款的抵押贷款延期计划将失效。自疫情爆发以来，已有700多万房产持有人加入了抵押贷款延期计划。随着经济好转，这个数字有所下降。截至7月11日，仍有占美国抵押贷款3.5%的175万借款人加入了抵押贷款延期计划。
自2008年房市崩盘后，美国止赎权危机一度非常严重，部分原因是数千万财务紧张的房产持有人资不抵债，即借款人的剩余抵押贷款余额大于房屋价值，因而他们别无选择，只能选择止赎。但今年同样财政拮据的房主却不太可能出现这种情况。房屋价值减去未偿付的抵押贷款后，这些房主可能仍然拥有相当高的房屋净值。如果他们无法偿还抵押贷款，可以干脆将房屋出售，让房产进入当前炙手可热的房地产市场中。
目前受抵押贷款延期计划保护的175万房主中，即使只有一小部分选择出售房屋，没有选择偿还抵押贷款，也可能对历来紧张的房地产市场造成重大影响。根据全美房地产经纪人协会的数据，目前只有137万套住房可供出售。而在过去的40年间，任何时候美国平均都有250万套房产代售，今年的房屋库存已经降至自上世纪80年代有数据以来的最低水平。
“供应格局中存在一个不确定因素，当房主处于抵押贷款延期期间，房屋可能发生会变化。一些人将回到工作岗位，获得收入，与他们的贷款人一起调整贷款条款，从而允许他们继续住在自己的房子里。而其他人就没那么幸运了，他们会失去他们的房子，”房地产市场研究公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里•沃尔夫告诉《财富》杂志：“除非再次延长暂缓期，否则我们应该可以预见到，明年其中一些房屋将会出现在市场上。”
这就引发了一个问题，有多少房主可能会出售他们的资产？为了找到答案，《财富》杂志对Home.LLC的研究人员进行了采访。Home.LLC是一家初创公司，为购房者提供首付援助，从而换取部分利润。最终《财富》杂志发现，如果政府不选择延长抵押贷款延期计划，那么根据Home.LLC的预测模型，今年晚些时候房屋库存还将增加11%，可能不足以令价格出现下降。
“对拖欠贷款的房主来说，较高的房屋净值会降低止赎的可能性，因为人们可以重新融资或出售房屋，避免拖欠抵押贷款。” Home.LLC的首席执行官尼克•沙阿表示。选择出售的人群不太可能改变市场。考虑到目前房产库存处在40年间的低点，他表示：“预计未来房产库存增加并不太多，因而我们预计，即使抵押贷款延期计划结束，房价也将继续快速上涨。”
虽然抵押贷款延期计划有可能失效，但并非必然。这项计划最初来自2020年3月耗资2.2万亿美元的《关爱法案》，现在已经延期了三次。最近一次延期来自拜登政府，6月下旬政府宣布将延期时间延长至9月30日。然而到目前为止，白宫还没有就再次延长时限有过任何暗示。
“许多退出抵押贷款延期计划的房主正在恢复到疫情前的收入水平，不再面临疫情导致的财务困难。” 7月23日白宫在一份声明中写道：“对于有能力支付疫情前每月抵押贷款的房主及部分相关机构，评级机构将继续对抵押贷款服务机构提供援助，允许借款人在不增加借款成本的情况下，将未支付的贷款推迟到抵押贷款的最后期限。”（财富中文网）
译者：葛云
A crash in the housing market seemed inevitable during the early weeks of the COVID-19 recession. However, that bust didn't come to fruition, in fact, the opposite happened: A combination of government support, recession-induced low interest rates, and eager homebuyers set off a housing boom. Since the onset of the crisis, median home prices are up a staggering 24%.
But much of that government aid and support is about to go away. The foreclosure moratorium, which prevents foreclosures of federally-backed mortgages, will come to an end on July 31. Then on Sept. 30, the mortgage forbearance program, which allows some borrowers to pause their payments, will lapse. Since the beginning of the pandemic, over 7 million homeowners have been enrolled in the forbearance program. However, as the economy has improved that number has fallen. As of July 11, there are still 1.75 million borrowers, or 3.5% of U.S. mortgages, enrolled in the forbearance program.
The foreclosure crisis following the 2008 housing crash was so bad, in part, because tens of millions of financially strained homeowners were underwater (meaning a borrower's remaining mortgage balance is greater than the home's value) and had no choice but foreclosure. That's unlikely to be the case for financially strapped homeowners this year. These homeowners are likely sitting on sizable home equity (home value minus the outstanding mortgage), and if they can't repay the mortgage they can simply sell into the currently red-hot housing market.
If even a small fraction of the 1.75 million homeowners currently protected by the mortgage forbearance program opt to sell instead of going back to repaying their mortgage, it could have a big impact on the historically tight housing market. According to the National Association of Realtors, there are only 1.37 million units currently available for sale. Over the past four decades, the U.S. has averaged 2.5 million units at any given time. This year, housing inventory hit its lowest level since the data started getting tracked in the '80s.
"The wildcard in the supply landscape is what happens to the homes where the owners are in mortgage forbearance. Some will have returned to gainful employment and will work with their lenders to adjust the terms of their loan, allowing them to remain in their home. Others will not be so lucky and will lose their homes," Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a housing market research firm, told Fortune. "Unless the forbearance period is extended again, though, we should expect some of those homes to hit the market over the next year."
That begs the question: How many of these behind homeowners are likely to sell? To find out, Fortune asked researchers at Home.LLC, a startup that provides down payment assistance to homebuyers in return for a share of profits, to run the numbers. The finding? If the government doesn't extend the mortgage forbearance program, Home.LLC's model forecasts an additional 11% increase to housing inventory later this year. But that may not be enough to lower prices.
"High positive home equity among delinquent homeowners results in lower likelihood of foreclosure since people can refinance or sell the home to avoid defaulting on their mortgage," says Nik Shah, CEO of Home.LLC. Those who do choose to sell are unlikely to shift the market. The forecasted uptick in inventory, he says, "isn't much given that inventory is at a 40-year low. So, we project that home prices will continue to grow rapidly even if the forbearance program ends."
While a lapse of the mortgage forbearance program is likely, it isn't guaranteed. The benefit, initially created by the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in March 2020, has already been extended three times. The last extension came from the Biden administration in late June when it extended forbearance to Sept. 30. However, so far, the White House hasn't suggested another extension is looming.
"Many homeowners exiting mortgage forbearance are returning to their pre-pandemic earnings and are no longer facing financial hardship associated with the pandemic," the White House wrote in a statement on July 23. "For homeowners who can resume their pre-pandemic monthly mortgage payment and where agencies have the authority, agencies will continue requiring mortgage servicers to offer options that allow borrowers to move missed payments to the end of the mortgage at no additional cost to the borrower."
