中美脱钩声不断，两国贸易却一片繁荣
虽然有各种声音导致中美两国之间的关系日益紧张，但两国在一个领域的关系似乎“一切如常”，那就是贸易。中国官方数据显示，2021年两国双边贸易量激增，中国6月对美出口和从美国进口分别达到469亿美元和143亿美元。
伦敦政治经济学院（London School of Economics and Political Science）的经济学教授金刻羽在《财富》杂志于7月21日举办的的虚拟访谈节目《全球化是否值得拯救？》（Is Globalization Worth Saving?）中说：“中美两国之间的贸易并没有真正转变为对其他国家的贸易。事实上，去年的对华[外国直接投资]，甚至来自美国的投资，都达到了历史最高水平。”
不只是美国，其他国家与中国的贸易也并没有受到太大影响。新加坡国立大学（National University of Singapore）亚洲研究院（Asia Research Institute）的杰出院士马凯硕（Kishore Mahbubani）教授称：“2000年，巴西对华出口用了一年才达到10亿美元。今天却只需要72个小时。”马凯硕教授认为，有人叫嚣改变与有利可图的中国大陆市场的贸易关系，但对于这种呼声，各国政府可能会充耳不闻。他说：“你不能要求其他国家切断与中国的贸易关系，这是自杀行为。”
参与这次访谈讨论的所有专家都认为，全球化对世界经济有无数好处，但这些好处在各国之间的分配并不平等。
反全球化情绪的生产主要是因为被全球化甩下的人们没有得到帮助，例如西方国家的产业工人因为其他国家的生产成本更低而受到影响。世界贸易组织（World Trade Organization）前总干事、巴黎和平论坛（Paris Peace Forum）主席帕斯卡尔•拉米解释说：“全球化效率极高，但也给这些群体带来了巨大的痛苦。至少西方国家还没有恰当调整福利制度，来适应全球化真正的力量。全球化将产生比以往更严重的破坏。”
华为技术公司的全球贸易事务高级副总裁博克睿（Craig Burchell）也认同这种观点。他指出：“世界许多地方的人们有理由感到不公平，因为他们觉得自己没有享受到全球化带来的好处。”
但随着中国经济持续发展，受到相关影响的人和国家将会发生变化。金刻羽表示，受影响的不再是美国的钢铁工人或家具工人。相反，价值链上游产业会受到冲击。“中国将生产具有高竞争力的产品，与日本、韩国和德国的中高科技产品竞争。”
马凯硕指出，关于自由贸易和开放市场的对话，不应该忽视除了西方国家以外，依旧有人“对全球化充满热情”。他认为，目前多边体系最大的支持者在东亚，因为西方国家对于他们建立的多边制度已经失去了信心。
然而，中国正在采取预防措施，以避免脱钩的声音演变成实际行动对本国造成破坏。中国政府公布的双循环经济策略，更强调通过拉动国内消费来刺激经济发展。正如金刻羽所说，中国的政策制定者们或许“想支持全球化，但中国必须为脱钩做好准备。”（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
虽然有各种声音导致中美两国之间的关系日益紧张，但两国在一个领域的关系似乎“一切如常”，那就是贸易。中国官方数据显示，2021年两国双边贸易量激增，中国6月对美出口和从美国进口分别达到469亿美元和143亿美元。
伦敦政治经济学院（London School of Economics and Political Science）的经济学教授金刻羽在《财富》杂志于7月21日举办的的虚拟访谈节目《全球化是否值得拯救？》（Is Globalization Worth Saving?）中说：“中美两国之间的贸易并没有真正转变为对其他国家的贸易。事实上，去年的对华[外国直接投资]，甚至来自美国的投资，都达到了历史最高水平。”
不只是美国，其他国家与中国的贸易也并没有受到太大影响。新加坡国立大学（National University of Singapore）亚洲研究院（Asia Research Institute）的杰出院士马凯硕（Kishore Mahbubani）教授称：“2000年，巴西对华出口用了一年才达到10亿美元。今天却只需要72个小时。”马凯硕教授认为，有人叫嚣改变与有利可图的中国大陆市场的贸易关系，但对于这种呼声，各国政府可能会充耳不闻。他说：“你不能要求其他国家切断与中国的贸易关系，这是自杀行为。”
参与这次访谈讨论的所有专家都认为，全球化对世界经济有无数好处，但这些好处在各国之间的分配并不平等。
反全球化情绪的生产主要是因为被全球化甩下的人们没有得到帮助，例如西方国家的产业工人因为其他国家的生产成本更低而受到影响。世界贸易组织（World Trade Organization）前总干事、巴黎和平论坛（Paris Peace Forum）主席帕斯卡尔•拉米解释说：“全球化效率极高，但也给这些群体带来了巨大的痛苦。至少西方国家还没有恰当调整福利制度，来适应全球化真正的力量。全球化将产生比以往更严重的破坏。”
华为技术公司的全球贸易事务高级副总裁博克睿（Craig Burchell）也认同这种观点。他指出：“世界许多地方的人们有理由感到不公平，因为他们觉得自己没有享受到全球化带来的好处。”
但随着中国经济持续发展，受到相关影响的人和国家将会发生变化。金刻羽表示，受影响的不再是美国的钢铁工人或家具工人。相反，价值链上游产业会受到冲击。“中国将生产具有高竞争力的产品，与日本、韩国和德国的中高科技产品竞争。”
马凯硕指出，关于自由贸易和开放市场的对话，不应该忽视除了西方国家以外，依旧有人“对全球化充满热情”。他认为，目前多边体系最大的支持者在东亚，因为西方国家对于他们建立的多边制度已经失去了信心。
然而，中国正在采取预防措施，以避免脱钩的声音演变成实际行动对本国造成破坏。中国政府公布的双循环经济策略，更强调通过拉动国内消费来刺激经济发展。正如金刻羽所说，中国的政策制定者们或许“想支持全球化，但中国必须为脱钩做好准备。”（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
For all the talk of deepening tensions between the United States and China, there is one area where relations appear to be 'business-as-usual': trade. Official Chinese data show that bilateral trade between the two countries surged in 2021, with China's exports to and imports from the United States reaching $46.9 billion and $14.3 billion in June respectively.
“Trade wars between the U.S. and China have not really diverted trade towards other countries,” Keyu Jin, professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said at a Fortune virtual conversation titled “Is Globalization Worth Saving?” on July 21. “The fact is, [foreign direct investment] flowed to China—even from the U.S. to China—at record levels last year.”
It's not just the United States. Other countries that have butted heads with Beijing have continued to trade with China with few disruptions. Professor Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute, said that "in the year 2000, Brazil took one year to export $1 billion to China. Today, it takes 72 hours." Mahbubani argued that countries would likely ignore appeals to change trading relationships with the lucrative mainland market. “You cannot ask countries to commit suicide by cutting off their trade with China," he said.
All panelists agreed that globalization had provided countless benefits to the world economy, but that the gains had been distributed unequally within countries.
Anti-globalization sentiment often focuses on a lack of support for those who have been left behind, such as workers in Western industries disrupted by cheaper manufacturing elsewhere. "Globalization is both very efficient, and very painful," for these groups, explained Pascal Lamy, president of the Paris Peace Forum and former director-general of the World Trade Organization. "We haven't, at least in the West, properly adjusted our welfare system to the real forces of globalization, which are much more disruptive than they were in the past."
Craig Burchell, senior vice president for global trade affairs at Huawei Technologies, agreed, saying that "there’s a justified feeling of inequality from many parts of the world where people feel that they’ve been left out from the benefits of globalization."
Yet the people and countries that will bear the consequences of China's continued economic development will change over time. It's no longer "American steel workers or American furniture workers," according to Jin. Instead, it's industries higher up the value chain. "The new China is about making highly-competitive products that compete with mid-to-high technology products in Japan, Korea and Germany.”
Still, Mahbubani noted that the conversation about free trade and open markets shouldn’t forget those outside of the West who remain "enthusiastic about globalization.” He argued that the greatest proponents of a multilateral system are now in East Asia, since Western countries lost faith in the multilateral institutions they built.
However, China is making moves to protect itself in case rhetoric around decoupling is backed by action. Beijing has announced a dual circulation economic strategy that places greater emphasis on domestic consumption as a vehicle for economic development. As Jin explained, Chinese policymakers may “want to embrace globalization, but China will have to brace itself and prepare for being cut off.”
