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27年来最大骚乱:失业、饥饿和绝望笼罩南非

27年来最大骚乱:失业、饥饿和绝望笼罩南非

Daivd Meyer 2021年07月19日
“如果不能迅速恢复政治、社会的稳定以及法律秩序,南非将无法从因为多年治理不善、管理不当而造成的经济破坏中恢复过来。”

目前,南非部分地区连日来的骚乱和抢劫事件已经造成数十人死亡,数百家购物中心被洗劫一空。食品短缺一触即发,新冠疫苗接种中断,供应南非三分之一石油的炼油厂也关闭停产。自民主转型27年以来,南非发生过一连串动乱事件,但从未达到如此规模。

在南非的前总统雅各布•祖马因为藐视法庭而锒铛入狱之后,南非爆发了前所未有的暴力事件,但这远非问题的全部。虽然截至目前,约翰内斯堡证券交易所(Johannesburg Stock Exchange)的表现依然良好,但该国的货币南非兰特已然遭受重创,零售商损失估计已达3.4亿美元,商业团体敦促南非政府宣布国家进入紧急状态,但就目前来看,想要找到妥善的解决方案绝非易事。

关于这起事件,我们需要了解的信息如下。

情势现在有多糟糕?

非常糟糕。截至目前,死亡人数已经攀升至72人,1200余人被捕。南非政府还在受影响最严重的豪登省(包括南非金融中心约翰内斯堡和首都比勒陀利亚)、夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省(位于南非东部沿海,包括港口城市德班)两省部署了军队。现在,武装居民也在协助警察保护商店。

令人担忧的是,南非的一些关键基础设施也已经成为攻击目标,只得被迫关闭。暴乱之中,道路遭到封锁,被焚毁的卡车不计其数。夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的港口运营商Transnet在7月12日宣布,受不可抗力影响,已经关闭了位于该省德班和理查兹湾的港口设施,并称暴力事件“已经超出当地执法、安全部门的控制能力范围。”

Sapref由壳牌公司(Shell)与英国石油公司(BP)合资成立,作为南非最大的炼油厂,其提供了该国三分之一的石油供应,该公司向客户表示,在内乱和供应路线中断的背景之下,公司必须考虑员工的人身安全。目前,南非已经有100多座信号塔遭到破坏。甚至夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省彼得马里茨堡市的污水处理厂也遭到了暴徒纵火。

南非兰特已经成为空头做空的目标,过去几天,南非兰特兑美元汇率已经下跌超过3%。值得注意的是,JSE Top 40指数的表现依然良好,过去五天甚至还上涨了1.6%,但被迫关闭夸祖鲁-纳塔尔、豪登两省剩余门店的大型零售连锁商店就没有这么幸运了。

作为Game、Makro等大型连锁店的母公司,Massmart的股价近期已经下跌近15%,其他大型企业(例如Pepkor和Spar)的股价一度也出现了大幅下跌,但已经有所回升。

祖马入狱何以引发这场骚乱?

两周之前,祖马被南非宪法法院(Constitutional Court)判决入狱15个月(虽然他可能只会服刑几个月的时间),一般而言,此类判决不由宪法法院负责,但由于祖马拒绝接受南非最高法院的传唤,不愿意到宗多委员会(Zondo Commission)出庭作证,宪法法院破例下达了这一判决。宗多委员会是为调查祖马2009至2018年担任南非总统期间的高层腐败情况设立的特别委员会。

在祖马任期之内发生的所谓“劫掠狂潮”由与其关系密切的印度裔富豪古普塔家族一手导演,这场人称“国家俘获”的贪腐大剧抹去了最多南非三分之一的国内生产总值。目前,祖马仍然面临16项与相关贪腐案件有关的指控,因而其监狱生涯可能只是刚刚拉开了序幕。

在南非执政党——非国大(African National Congress)的内部,支持、同情祖马的力量依然十分强大。其继任者西里尔•拉马福萨近年来一直在与这股势力进行权力斗争,并于近期再次取得重大胜利——成功罢免了支持祖马的非国大秘书长阿斯•马加舒勒,后者是拉马福萨最有力的竞争对手,同时也面临着严重的腐败指控。此外,作为南非第一位也是迄今为止唯一一位祖鲁人总统,祖马依然拥有许多祖鲁人(夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的主体民族)的支持。

两周前,拉马福萨在向全国发表讲话时表示,“部分暴力行为是别有用心者煽动民族矛盾的结果”,此番指控引起了祖鲁部落首领曼戈苏图•布特莱齐和诸多祖鲁名人的愤怒回击。

祖马之女杜杜齐勒•祖马-萨姆布德拉被控通过推特(Twitter)煽动骚乱,在其推文中可以看到许多像“让我们团结起来,共同夺回属于我们的土地。”这样的口号。非国大的高层已经表示,该党将针对杜杜齐勒所发推文向其追究责任,南非警方也在对相关事件进行调查。据传祖马拥有20个子女。雅各布•祖马基金会(Jacob Zuma Foundation)也发布了一些威胁性推文,例如“南非要想获得和平与稳定,必须即刻释放祖马总统。”

经济自由战士党(Economic Freedom Fighters)极左派别的领导人尤利乌斯•马莱马发现,在自己将政府部署南非国防军(South African National Defense Force)的动作比作向平民开战之后,他的推特也被封了12个小时。不过马莱马并非祖马的盟友。离开非国大前,他曾经是祖马坚定的支持者,离开后则凭借反对祖马、反对“国家俘获”行为为自己新成立的更为激进的政党赢得了声誉。

除了煽动群众之外,越来越多的人开始怀疑,这场骚乱至少在一定程度上是针对拉马福萨政府发起的暴乱。“南非版”联邦调查局——南非国家安全局(State Security Agency)已经被迫就“暴乱、抢劫事件应对无措”的相关指控为自己进行辩护,另有线报称,忠于祖马的前任高官与相关暴乱事件不无干系,该局也在对此进行调查。

现在情况如何?

7月13日,拉马福萨的竞争对手马加舒勒对“释放祖马”(#FreeJacobZuma)运动表示了支持,同时对抢劫和破坏行为表示了反对。他在接受电台采访时说:“我认为,没有人会支持这种打砸抢烧的行径。我们绝不赞成毁坏财务的行为,因为这些东西我们在未来还会用得上。”

他说的没有错,虽然对南非而言,当务之急依然是制止暴力,防止其进一步蔓延,但一旦局势失控,所有人都将深受其害,那些本来就囊中羞涩的人士尤其如此。

作为全球最不平等的国家,新冠疫情的爆发对南非构成了严重冲击。由于新冠疫苗的供应严重不足(南非只有2.5%的人口完成了全程疫苗接种),加上政府能力有限,无法向因为反复“封城”而陷入失业或饥饿窘境的民众提供太多帮助,疫情之下的南非民众苦不堪言。今年4月,在每月24美元的防疫纾困金停止发放之后,许多人陷入了极度饥饿的境地。

无论过去几天的暴力事件如何被人操纵,饥饿和贫困才是导致这场暴乱的根本原因。骚乱最严重的豪登省萨卡恩市的居民阿奇扎•博塔在接受GroundUp采访时称:“偷东西的人大多是在忍饥挨饿,也找不到能够养家糊口的工作。从这些盗窃案件的发生也可以看出政府取消纾困金的一些影响。”

金融服务巨头Efficient Group的首席经济学家戴维•鲁特在接受BusinessTech采访时指出,“民众现在处于饥饿、失业、绝望的状态,对一些人来说,这明显是赚取政治得分的好机会,但不幸的是,摆在我们眼前的只是政府无能造成的惨痛经济后果。”

暴乱的结果是:数千家遭到洗劫的店铺,即便还能够恢复营业,短期内也无法重新开张;食品短缺近在眼前,本来就食不果腹的民众将面临更加严重的饥饿问题。此外,根据南非银行业协会(Banking Association South Africa)在7月14日发布的警告,由于提款机和银行分支机构遭到破坏,民众将无法正常领取社会保障金。

南非银行业协会表示,“如果不能迅速恢复政治、社会的稳定以及法律秩序,南非将无法从因为多年治理不善、管理不当而造成的经济破坏中恢复过来,并且这种经济危局还将因为新冠疫情的破坏性影响而进一步恶化。”(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

目前,南非部分地区连日来的骚乱和抢劫事件已经造成数十人死亡,数百家购物中心被洗劫一空。食品短缺一触即发,新冠疫苗接种中断,供应南非三分之一石油的炼油厂也关闭停产。自民主转型27年以来,南非发生过一连串动乱事件,但从未达到如此规模。

在南非的前总统雅各布•祖马因为藐视法庭而锒铛入狱之后,南非爆发了前所未有的暴力事件,但这远非问题的全部。虽然截至目前,约翰内斯堡证券交易所(Johannesburg Stock Exchange)的表现依然良好,但该国的货币南非兰特已然遭受重创,零售商损失估计已达3.4亿美元,商业团体敦促南非政府宣布国家进入紧急状态,但就目前来看,想要找到妥善的解决方案绝非易事。

关于这起事件,我们需要了解的信息如下。

情势现在有多糟糕?

非常糟糕。截至目前,死亡人数已经攀升至72人,1200余人被捕。南非政府还在受影响最严重的豪登省(包括南非金融中心约翰内斯堡和首都比勒陀利亚)、夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省(位于南非东部沿海,包括港口城市德班)两省部署了军队。现在,武装居民也在协助警察保护商店。

令人担忧的是,南非的一些关键基础设施也已经成为攻击目标,只得被迫关闭。暴乱之中,道路遭到封锁,被焚毁的卡车不计其数。夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的港口运营商Transnet在7月12日宣布,受不可抗力影响,已经关闭了位于该省德班和理查兹湾的港口设施,并称暴力事件“已经超出当地执法、安全部门的控制能力范围。”

Sapref由壳牌公司(Shell)与英国石油公司(BP)合资成立,作为南非最大的炼油厂,其提供了该国三分之一的石油供应,该公司向客户表示,在内乱和供应路线中断的背景之下,公司必须考虑员工的人身安全。目前,南非已经有100多座信号塔遭到破坏。甚至夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省彼得马里茨堡市的污水处理厂也遭到了暴徒纵火。

南非兰特已经成为空头做空的目标,过去几天,南非兰特兑美元汇率已经下跌超过3%。值得注意的是,JSE Top 40指数的表现依然良好,过去五天甚至还上涨了1.6%,但被迫关闭夸祖鲁-纳塔尔、豪登两省剩余门店的大型零售连锁商店就没有这么幸运了。

作为Game、Makro等大型连锁店的母公司,Massmart的股价近期已经下跌近15%,其他大型企业(例如Pepkor和Spar)的股价一度也出现了大幅下跌,但已经有所回升。

祖马入狱何以引发这场骚乱?

两周之前,祖马被南非宪法法院(Constitutional Court)判决入狱15个月(虽然他可能只会服刑几个月的时间),一般而言,此类判决不由宪法法院负责,但由于祖马拒绝接受南非最高法院的传唤,不愿意到宗多委员会(Zondo Commission)出庭作证,宪法法院破例下达了这一判决。宗多委员会是为调查祖马2009至2018年担任南非总统期间的高层腐败情况设立的特别委员会。

在祖马任期之内发生的所谓“劫掠狂潮”由与其关系密切的印度裔富豪古普塔家族一手导演,这场人称“国家俘获”的贪腐大剧抹去了最多南非三分之一的国内生产总值。目前,祖马仍然面临16项与相关贪腐案件有关的指控,因而其监狱生涯可能只是刚刚拉开了序幕。

在南非执政党——非国大(African National Congress)的内部,支持、同情祖马的力量依然十分强大。其继任者西里尔•拉马福萨近年来一直在与这股势力进行权力斗争,并于近期再次取得重大胜利——成功罢免了支持祖马的非国大秘书长阿斯•马加舒勒,后者是拉马福萨最有力的竞争对手,同时也面临着严重的腐败指控。此外,作为南非第一位也是迄今为止唯一一位祖鲁人总统,祖马依然拥有许多祖鲁人(夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的主体民族)的支持。

两周前,拉马福萨在向全国发表讲话时表示,“部分暴力行为是别有用心者煽动民族矛盾的结果”,此番指控引起了祖鲁部落首领曼戈苏图•布特莱齐和诸多祖鲁名人的愤怒回击。

祖马之女杜杜齐勒•祖马-萨姆布德拉被控通过推特(Twitter)煽动骚乱,在其推文中可以看到许多像“让我们团结起来,共同夺回属于我们的土地。”这样的口号。非国大的高层已经表示,该党将针对杜杜齐勒所发推文向其追究责任,南非警方也在对相关事件进行调查。据传祖马拥有20个子女。雅各布•祖马基金会(Jacob Zuma Foundation)也发布了一些威胁性推文,例如“南非要想获得和平与稳定,必须即刻释放祖马总统。”

经济自由战士党(Economic Freedom Fighters)极左派别的领导人尤利乌斯•马莱马发现,在自己将政府部署南非国防军(South African National Defense Force)的动作比作向平民开战之后,他的推特也被封了12个小时。不过马莱马并非祖马的盟友。离开非国大前,他曾经是祖马坚定的支持者,离开后则凭借反对祖马、反对“国家俘获”行为为自己新成立的更为激进的政党赢得了声誉。

除了煽动群众之外,越来越多的人开始怀疑,这场骚乱至少在一定程度上是针对拉马福萨政府发起的暴乱。“南非版”联邦调查局——南非国家安全局(State Security Agency)已经被迫就“暴乱、抢劫事件应对无措”的相关指控为自己进行辩护,另有线报称,忠于祖马的前任高官与相关暴乱事件不无干系,该局也在对此进行调查。

现在情况如何?

7月13日,拉马福萨的竞争对手马加舒勒对“释放祖马”(#FreeJacobZuma)运动表示了支持,同时对抢劫和破坏行为表示了反对。他在接受电台采访时说:“我认为,没有人会支持这种打砸抢烧的行径。我们绝不赞成毁坏财务的行为,因为这些东西我们在未来还会用得上。”

他说的没有错,虽然对南非而言,当务之急依然是制止暴力,防止其进一步蔓延,但一旦局势失控,所有人都将深受其害,那些本来就囊中羞涩的人士尤其如此。

作为全球最不平等的国家,新冠疫情的爆发对南非构成了严重冲击。由于新冠疫苗的供应严重不足(南非只有2.5%的人口完成了全程疫苗接种),加上政府能力有限,无法向因为反复“封城”而陷入失业或饥饿窘境的民众提供太多帮助,疫情之下的南非民众苦不堪言。今年4月,在每月24美元的防疫纾困金停止发放之后,许多人陷入了极度饥饿的境地。

无论过去几天的暴力事件如何被人操纵,饥饿和贫困才是导致这场暴乱的根本原因。骚乱最严重的豪登省萨卡恩市的居民阿奇扎•博塔在接受GroundUp采访时称:“偷东西的人大多是在忍饥挨饿,也找不到能够养家糊口的工作。从这些盗窃案件的发生也可以看出政府取消纾困金的一些影响。”

金融服务巨头Efficient Group的首席经济学家戴维•鲁特在接受BusinessTech采访时指出,“民众现在处于饥饿、失业、绝望的状态,对一些人来说,这明显是赚取政治得分的好机会,但不幸的是,摆在我们眼前的只是政府无能造成的惨痛经济后果。”

暴乱的结果是:数千家遭到洗劫的店铺,即便还能够恢复营业,短期内也无法重新开张;食品短缺近在眼前,本来就食不果腹的民众将面临更加严重的饥饿问题。此外,根据南非银行业协会(Banking Association South Africa)在7月14日发布的警告,由于提款机和银行分支机构遭到破坏,民众将无法正常领取社会保障金。

南非银行业协会表示,“如果不能迅速恢复政治、社会的稳定以及法律秩序,南非将无法从因为多年治理不善、管理不当而造成的经济破坏中恢复过来,并且这种经济危局还将因为新冠疫情的破坏性影响而进一步恶化。”(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

Days of riots and looting in parts of South Africa have killed dozens of people and seen hundreds of shopping malls ransacked. Food shortages loom, COVID vaccinations have been disrupted, and the refinery that supplies a third of the country’s oil supply has been shut. There have been spasms of unrest in South Africa in the 27 years since its democratic transformation, but nothing remotely on this scale.

The violence of the past five days was triggered by the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma for contempt of court. However, there’s a lot more to it than that, and, while the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has thus far held up well, the South African rand is taking a battering, retailers have lost an estimated $340 million, business groups are urging the government to declare a state of emergency, and no easy solutions are in sight.

Here’s what you need to know.

How bad is it right now?

Really bad. The death toll currently stands at 72, and there have been over 1,200 arrests. The army has been called into the two provinces that have been chiefly affected: Gauteng, which includes the financial hub of Johannesburg and the capital city of Pretoria, and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), the east-coast province that includes the port city of Durban. Armed residents are also now backing the police in protecting shops.

Worryingly, key infrastructure has been targeted and is being shuttered. Roads are blockaded, and many trucks have been torched. In KZN, port operator Transnet on July 12 declared force majeure and shut down its facilities in Durban and Richards Bay, saying the violence “has now reached proportions beyond the control of the local law enforcement and security services.”

Sapref, the country’s biggest oil refinery, representing a third of South Africa’s fuel supply, has done the same: The Shell/BP joint venture told its clients that civil unrest and supply-route disruption meant it had to think of its staff’s safety. More than a hundred cell towers have been vandalized. Even a water treatment plant, in the KZN city of Pietermaritzburg, was set on fire.

The South African rand has become a shorting target and is down more than 3% against the dollar in the past couple of days. Remarkably, the JSE Top 40 index has held up well, actually rising 1.6% over the past five days, but the big retail chains, who have been forced to close their surviving outlets across KZN and Gauteng, have not been so lucky.

Shares in Massmart, the owner of major chains such as Game and Makro, have fallen by nearly 15%. Other big players, such as Pepkor and Spar, also saw significant dips but have recovered somewhat.

How did Zuma’s jailing trigger this?

Zuma was imprisoned for 15 months (though he may serve only a few of those) two weeks ago. He was sent down by the Constitutional Court, which usually isn’t in the business of jailing anybody—but Zuma had defied an order by South Africa’s highest court to testify before the Zondo Commission, a special panel set up to probe high-level corruption during his 2009–18 presidency.

That alleged looting spree, which wiped out as much as a third of South African GDP and was by most accounts orchestrated by an Indian family of Zuma associates called the Guptas, is popularly known in the country as “state capture.” The former President still faces 16 charges associated with the corruption itself, so his current incarceration may be just an appetizer.

There remains a strong faction within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party that still sympathizes with Zuma. His successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, has spent recent years in a power struggle with them, and recently scored a major victory by ousting the pro-Zuma ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule, Ramaphosa’s most powerful rival and a man who also faces serious corruption allegations. Meanwhile, Zuma is also still popular with many Zulu, the ethnic group that dominates in KZN; he was South Africa’s first and so far only Zulu President.

Addressing the nation over two weeks ago, Ramaphosa said, “Some of these acts of violence are based on ethnic mobilization”—a charge that prompted angry pushback from Zulu tribal leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi and Zulu celebrities alike.

One of Zuma’s estimated 20 children, his daughter Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, has been accused of using Twitter to stir up the riots with statements such as “Let us now organize ourselves and unite to take back our land.” The ANC top brass has said the party will hold her “accountable” for her tweets, and the police are investigating. The Jacob Zuma Foundation has also issued threatening tweets such as, “Peace and stability in South Africa is directly linked to the release of President Zuma with immediate effect.”

Julius Malema, the far-left leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, also found himself suspended from Twitter for 12 hours after he compared the deployment of the South African National Defense Force to declaring war on civilians. Malema is no Zuma ally, though; he was a staunch sidekick when in the ANC, but went on to build his newer, more radical party’s reputation by opposing Zuma and state capture.

Beyond rabble-rousing, there is a growing suspicion that the unrest may have been at least partly organized as a type of sedition against Ramaphosa’s administration. The State Security Agency—South Africa’s answer to the FBI—has been forced to defend itself against accusations that the riots and looting caught it off guard, and it is looking into tip-offs that former senior staffers, who were loyal to Zuma, played a role.

What now?

Magashule, Ramaphosa’s rival, on July 13 came out to both back the #FreeJacobZuma campaign and oppose the looting and destruction. “No one, I think, was calling for burning of things and all that,” he said in a radio interview. “We don’t appreciate the fact that property is destroyed, because tomorrow you are going to need it.”

That much is true: While stopping the violence and its further spread remains South Africa’s most immediate concern, the fallout is going to hurt everyone, particularly those who already had little left to lose.

South Africa went into the COVID pandemic as the world’s most unequal society. It has had a miserable pandemic, with vastly inadequate vaccine supplies (only 2.5% of the population is fully vaccinated) and limited government capacity to help those made jobless and hungry by repeated lockdowns. The meager COVID grant of $24 a month ended in April, throwing many into extreme hunger.

However the violence of the past several days may have been orchestrated, this is ultimately the root problem. “Most of the people stealing are hungry and unemployed,” Aziza Botha, a resident of the hard-hit Gauteng township of Tsakane, told GroundUp. “This stealing shows some of the effects after government eliminated the grant.”

“People are hungry, unemployed, and without hope. Obviously, this is also an opportunity to score some political points by a few. Unfortunately, what we see today is the economic consequences of a destructive government,” Dawie Roodt, chief economist at financial services giant Efficient Group, told BusinessTech.

The result: thousands of gutted shops that will not reopen soon, if ever, and immediate food shortages that will leave people even hungrier. The destruction of cash machine and bank branches will, the Banking Association South Africa (BASA) warned on July 14, keep people from collecting social security payments.

“Without a swift return to political and social stability and respect for the rule of law,” BASA said, “South Africa will be unable to recover from the economic ravages wrought by years of poor governance and maladministration and exacerbated by the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

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