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木材价格已经暴跌55%,但触底反弹在即

木材价格已经暴跌55%,但触底反弹在即

Lance Lambert 2021年07月18日
木材批发价已经大幅回调,但消费端价格依然高企。

今年春季,木材价格一度上涨300%,让建筑商和热衷动手的达人们“闻之色变”。自此之后,木材价格开始快速下跌。

木材价格的下跌势头在7月初得到延续,至此已经连续第六周下跌。行业刊物《Fastmarkets Random Length》的数据显示,7月9日,木材的“现货”价格下跌81美元,至每千板英尺689美元,较5月28日创下的1515美元历史高价已经下跌55%。

但如果你是一位动手达人,那么在家得宝(Home Depot)和劳氏(Lowe’s)的大箱子间穿梭寻找2乘4英尺的木板时,你就会发现,木材价格依然“高高在上”。何以如此?首先,木材现货价格是批发价格,即锯木厂给分销商供货的价格,上游价格传导至零售环节自然需要一段时间。其次,当前的木材价格较2020年年初依然高出了84%,当时每千板英尺的价格是375美元。

那么零售环节的木材价格还要多久才能够降下来呢?Sherwood Lumber公司的特种产品主管迈克尔·古德曼在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,上游降价一般需要“大约60到90天才可以传导到终端市场。”

对动手达人而言,坏消息是:木材价格泡沫破裂的时段可能已经结束。业内人士告诉《财富》杂志,在经过最近的下跌之后,木材价格或已触底。

“我认为,现货价格已经触底。”古德曼说。

最近几周,由于木材价格处于历史高位,建筑商和动手达人的需求都有所降温,这也让锯木厂和其他身处供应链之上的企业得以跟上市场需求,进而拉低了木材价格。但情况即将发生改变,从现在的情势来看,今年野火季的影响似乎将会格外严重。在北美木材生产中心——不列颠哥伦比亚省和美国西北太平洋地区,大火已经开始肆虐。如果不列颠哥伦比亚省或俄勒冈州的工厂停产,木材价格或将再次迎来上涨。

6月11日,当木材的现货市场价格仍然高于每千板英尺1300美元时,Fastmarkets RISI负责木材市场的高级经济学家达斯汀·阿尔伯特就在推特(Twitter)上表示,相较一些买家的预期,今年每千板英尺木材的现货市场价格跌至500至600美元的时间将会更早。事实上,对许多买家来说,木材价格迅速跌至689美元已经是惊喜。但阿尔伯特现在认为,由于野火季即将到来,加上价格下降后许多买家已经重回市场,木材价格“将在未来几周迎来相当不错的反弹”。

不过即便木材价格反弹,也不太可能出现今春那样暴涨的情况。2020年夏季,木材价格大幅上涨,进入2021年,建筑商和销售商都希望木材价格能够有所回落。由于今春价格并未下跌,建筑商和销售商开始争相购买存货。受此种“踩踏”、“夹仓”式抢购的影响,木材期货价格一度飙升至1700美元以上。Deacon Lumber公司的首席执行官斯丁森·迪恩于6月接受《财富》杂志采访时指出,市场上现在已经没有这种动力了。

正如《财富》杂志此前报道的那样,这场历史性木材短缺由新冠疫情期间爆发的一系列因素共同引发。2020年春季新冠疫情爆发时,由于担心房地产市场即将崩盘,锯木厂降低了产量,同时削减了库存。然而需求不仅没有暴跌,反而出现了暴涨。美国人争先恐后地涌向家得宝和劳氏,为自己的动手项目购买原材料,而经济衰退引发的利率下跌则刺激了房地产市场的繁荣。这股热潮又因为大批千禧一代进入购房高峰期而进一步升温,导致房屋库存枯竭,买家不得不搜寻新建房屋。房屋装修和建造都需要大量木材,木材厂却无力满足汹涌的市场需求。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

今年春季,木材价格一度上涨300%,让建筑商和热衷动手的达人们“闻之色变”。自此之后,木材价格开始快速下跌。

木材价格的下跌势头在7月初得到延续,至此已经连续第六周下跌。行业刊物《Fastmarkets Random Length》的数据显示,7月9日,木材的“现货”价格下跌81美元,至每千板英尺689美元,较5月28日创下的1515美元历史高价已经下跌55%。

但如果你是一位动手达人,那么在家得宝(Home Depot)和劳氏(Lowe’s)的大箱子间穿梭寻找2乘4英尺的木板时,你就会发现,木材价格依然“高高在上”。何以如此?首先,木材现货价格是批发价格,即锯木厂给分销商供货的价格,上游价格传导至零售环节自然需要一段时间。其次,当前的木材价格较2020年年初依然高出了84%,当时每千板英尺的价格是375美元。

那么零售环节的木材价格还要多久才能够降下来呢?Sherwood Lumber公司的特种产品主管迈克尔·古德曼在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,上游降价一般需要“大约60到90天才可以传导到终端市场。”

对动手达人而言,坏消息是:木材价格泡沫破裂的时段可能已经结束。业内人士告诉《财富》杂志,在经过最近的下跌之后,木材价格或已触底。

“我认为,现货价格已经触底。”古德曼说。

最近几周,由于木材价格处于历史高位,建筑商和动手达人的需求都有所降温,这也让锯木厂和其他身处供应链之上的企业得以跟上市场需求,进而拉低了木材价格。但情况即将发生改变,从现在的情势来看,今年野火季的影响似乎将会格外严重。在北美木材生产中心——不列颠哥伦比亚省和美国西北太平洋地区,大火已经开始肆虐。如果不列颠哥伦比亚省或俄勒冈州的工厂停产,木材价格或将再次迎来上涨。

6月11日,当木材的现货市场价格仍然高于每千板英尺1300美元时,Fastmarkets RISI负责木材市场的高级经济学家达斯汀·阿尔伯特就在推特(Twitter)上表示,相较一些买家的预期,今年每千板英尺木材的现货市场价格跌至500至600美元的时间将会更早。事实上,对许多买家来说,木材价格迅速跌至689美元已经是惊喜。但阿尔伯特现在认为,由于野火季即将到来,加上价格下降后许多买家已经重回市场,木材价格“将在未来几周迎来相当不错的反弹”。

不过即便木材价格反弹,也不太可能出现今春那样暴涨的情况。2020年夏季,木材价格大幅上涨,进入2021年,建筑商和销售商都希望木材价格能够有所回落。由于今春价格并未下跌,建筑商和销售商开始争相购买存货。受此种“踩踏”、“夹仓”式抢购的影响,木材期货价格一度飙升至1700美元以上。Deacon Lumber公司的首席执行官斯丁森·迪恩于6月接受《财富》杂志采访时指出,市场上现在已经没有这种动力了。

正如《财富》杂志此前报道的那样,这场历史性木材短缺由新冠疫情期间爆发的一系列因素共同引发。2020年春季新冠疫情爆发时,由于担心房地产市场即将崩盘,锯木厂降低了产量,同时削减了库存。然而需求不仅没有暴跌,反而出现了暴涨。美国人争先恐后地涌向家得宝和劳氏,为自己的动手项目购买原材料,而经济衰退引发的利率下跌则刺激了房地产市场的繁荣。这股热潮又因为大批千禧一代进入购房高峰期而进一步升温,导致房屋库存枯竭,买家不得不搜寻新建房屋。房屋装修和建造都需要大量木材,木材厂却无力满足汹涌的市场需求。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

At one point this spring the price of lumber was up over 300%—terrifying both homebuilders and DIYers. Since then, lumber has come crashing down.

That descent continued at the beginning of July, as it notched its sixth consecutive week of decline. On July 9, the "cash" price of lumber fell $81, to $689 per thousand board feet, according to industry trade publication Fastmarkets Random Lengths. That's a 55% drop from its $1,515 all-time high set on May 28.

But if you're a do-it-yourself maven searching for two by fours in the aisles of big boxes like Home Depot and Lowe’s, you'll likely notice that prices are still sky-high. The reason? For starters, the cash price of lumber is a wholesale price—it's what sawmills charge distributors—and it takes time for those price drops to be reflected on the retail side. Secondly, the price of lumber is still up 84% from the beginning of 2020, when it cost $375 per thousand board feet.

Just how long until these price cuts make their way into the aisles of big boxes? Michael Goodman, director of specialty products at Sherwood Lumber, tells Fortune each dip will take "about 60 to 90 days to get into the market."

The bad news for DIYers? The bursting of the lumber bubble could be over. Industry insiders tell Fortune this latest dip has likely taken prices near to their floor.

"I believe the cash has hit its bottom," Goodman says.

What's going on? In recent weeks, demand from homebuilders and DIYers has been cooling as a result of historically high wood prices. That has helped sawmills and the rest of the supply chain to catch up, thus lowering the price of lumber. But that story is about to change, now that we're at the beginning of what looks likely to become an unusually severe wildfire season. Already, fires are bursting out in British Columbia and the U.S. Pacific Northwest—the epicenters of North American lumber production. If mills in British Columbia or states like Oregon go offline, it could cause another upswing in the price of lumber.

On June 11, the cash market price was still above $1,300 per thousand board feet, Dustin Jalbert, a senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, where he covers the lumber market, tweeted that $500 to $600 per thousand board feet would come sooner than some buyers were expecting this year. Indeed, the swift drop to $689 is a pleasant surprise for many buyers. But now, Jalbert believes, the lumber market is "squared up for a pretty decent bounce in the coming weeks" as a result of wildfire season and some turned-off buyers returning to the market now that prices have corrected.

If an uptick comes again, it's unlikely to be anything like the run this spring. Heading into 2021, builders and vendors were hoping that lumber prices—which saw big upticks in the summer of 2020— would come back down. When the price didn't fall this spring, those builders and vendors scrambled to buy up inventory. That stampede—or short squeeze—caused the price soar to over $1,700 in the futures market. That dynamic is no longer in play, Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune in June.

As Fortune has previously reported, this historic lumber shortage was spurred by a perfect storm of factors set off during the pandemic. When COVID-19 broke out in spring 2020, sawmills cut production and unloaded inventory in fears of a looming housing crash. The crash didn't happen—instead, the opposite occurred. Americans rushed to Home Depot and Lowe’s to buy up materials for do-it-yourself projects, while recession-induced interest rates helped spur a housing boom. That boom, which was exacerbated by a large cohort of millennials starting to hit their peak homebuying years, dried up housing inventory and sent buyers in search of new construction. Home improvements and construction require a lot of lumber, and mills couldn't keep up.

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