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通货膨胀越来越严重,对于ETF基金意味着什么?

通货膨胀越来越严重,对于ETF基金意味着什么?

Jessica Mathews 2021年07月17日
通货膨胀是机构投资者最关注的问题。

通货膨胀水平创下自2008年以来的历史新高,这足以引起所有投资者的关注。

从劳动力短缺到衡量物价随时间变化的消费价格指数飙升,对冲基金、养老基金和其他大型投资者都在密切关注这些指标对于其投资对象经营状况的影响。

Corbin Advisors公司CEO瑞贝卡·科尔宾表示,通货膨胀“是机构投资者最关注的问题”。该公司对机构投资者情绪的调查显示,69%的机构投资者预计今年下半年通货膨胀会继续攀升。

通货膨胀对各类投资都产生了影响,包括交易所交易基金(ETF)。交易所交易基金采用各种投资策略,例如密切跟踪股指、与更广阔的市场联动,或者与特定行业或资产类别挂钩等。资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)的ETF部门iShares发布了季度指导,展望了交易所交易市场今年剩余时间的走势。以下是投资者需要知道的一些要点:

通货膨胀的影响会持续很长时间

iShares美洲投资策略负责人加尔吉·保尔·乔杜里表示,如果你以为物价会迅速回落,你可能会失望。她在iShares的2021年前景展望指南中阐述了自己对于长期通货膨胀的预测。

科尔宾表示,虽然美联储(Federal Reserve)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔称通胀上升并非永久性,但机构投资者却认为,通货膨胀的影响需要几个月乃至几个季度的时间才能消退。

她说道:“通货膨胀波及到商品和服务的每一个环节。它的影响不会一夜之间消失;可能需要一段时间来消化。”

乔杜里写道,此次通胀上升的持续时间,可能超过上一次全球经济复苏。导致这种状况的原因包括经济增长、持续的财政和货币政策支持、生产成本上涨以及疫情期间的供应链转移。

好消息是,在经济增长的带动下,价值股和小盘股今年上半年表现出色。据iShares统计,尤其是与宏观经济增长密切挂钩的周期性ETF基金吸引的资金流入,比国防业多530亿美元,投资者的目的是在市场下行期间平衡风险和保持稳定。

随着通胀上升,美元购买力下降,固定收益债券的收益率下跌。iShares预计,债券收益率将“适度上涨”,但该ETF基金管理公司在收益方面并没有太大期待。该公司表示,其看好短期通胀保值国债(TIPS)以及以浮动利率计息的债券。iShares称,2021年到目前为止,在美国上市的短期ETF基金吸引了77亿美元资金流入。

首选优质股而不是周期性股票

全球经济繁荣或许可以持续,但金融市场却很难预测,而且金融市场可能不会像疫情期间一样,随着整体经济趋势变化而变化。

iShares主张,现在应该将投资重心向有高股本收益率、稳定年比收入增长和低财务杠杆率的公司倾斜,也就是所谓的“优质”股,而不是价格随整体经济趋势变化而波动的股票(即“周期性”股票或基金)。这些股票质量更佳,能够抵御原材料、人工和融资成本上涨以及企业所得税加税的影响。

乔杜里写道:“我们认为随着经济周期的演变,优质股的表现有望得到改善,投资者更期待正常化增长,对于税收、通胀和美联储政策调整的时机会变得更加谨慎。”

据iShares表示,今年第二季度全球优质ETF基金资金流入约17亿美元,并且该公司尤其看好科技行业。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

通货膨胀水平创下自2008年以来的历史新高,这足以引起所有投资者的关注。

从劳动力短缺到衡量物价随时间变化的消费价格指数飙升,对冲基金、养老基金和其他大型投资者都在密切关注这些指标对于其投资对象经营状况的影响。

Corbin Advisors公司CEO瑞贝卡·科尔宾表示,通货膨胀“是机构投资者最关注的问题”。该公司对机构投资者情绪的调查显示,69%的机构投资者预计今年下半年通货膨胀会继续攀升。

通货膨胀对各类投资都产生了影响,包括交易所交易基金(ETF)。交易所交易基金采用各种投资策略,例如密切跟踪股指、与更广阔的市场联动,或者与特定行业或资产类别挂钩等。资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)的ETF部门iShares发布了季度指导,展望了交易所交易市场今年剩余时间的走势。以下是投资者需要知道的一些要点:

通货膨胀的影响会持续很长时间

iShares美洲投资策略负责人加尔吉·保尔·乔杜里表示,如果你以为物价会迅速回落,你可能会失望。她在iShares的2021年前景展望指南中阐述了自己对于长期通货膨胀的预测。

科尔宾表示,虽然美联储(Federal Reserve)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔称通胀上升并非永久性,但机构投资者却认为,通货膨胀的影响需要几个月乃至几个季度的时间才能消退。

她说道:“通货膨胀波及到商品和服务的每一个环节。它的影响不会一夜之间消失;可能需要一段时间来消化。”

乔杜里写道,此次通胀上升的持续时间,可能超过上一次全球经济复苏。导致这种状况的原因包括经济增长、持续的财政和货币政策支持、生产成本上涨以及疫情期间的供应链转移。

好消息是,在经济增长的带动下,价值股和小盘股今年上半年表现出色。据iShares统计,尤其是与宏观经济增长密切挂钩的周期性ETF基金吸引的资金流入,比国防业多530亿美元,投资者的目的是在市场下行期间平衡风险和保持稳定。

随着通胀上升,美元购买力下降,固定收益债券的收益率下跌。iShares预计,债券收益率将“适度上涨”,但该ETF基金管理公司在收益方面并没有太大期待。该公司表示,其看好短期通胀保值国债(TIPS)以及以浮动利率计息的债券。iShares称,2021年到目前为止,在美国上市的短期ETF基金吸引了77亿美元资金流入。

首选优质股而不是周期性股票

全球经济繁荣或许可以持续,但金融市场却很难预测,而且金融市场可能不会像疫情期间一样,随着整体经济趋势变化而变化。

iShares主张,现在应该将投资重心向有高股本收益率、稳定年比收入增长和低财务杠杆率的公司倾斜,也就是所谓的“优质”股,而不是价格随整体经济趋势变化而波动的股票(即“周期性”股票或基金)。这些股票质量更佳,能够抵御原材料、人工和融资成本上涨以及企业所得税加税的影响。

乔杜里写道:“我们认为随着经济周期的演变,优质股的表现有望得到改善,投资者更期待正常化增长,对于税收、通胀和美联储政策调整的时机会变得更加谨慎。”

据iShares表示,今年第二季度全球优质ETF基金资金流入约17亿美元,并且该公司尤其看好科技行业。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Inflation hasn’t been this high since 2008—and every investor should be paying attention.

Between labor shortages and a spiking consumer price index—which measures changes in prices over time—hedge funds, pension funds, and other large investors are keeping a close eye on what these indicators mean for the bottom lines of companies they’re investing in.

Inflation “is the number one concern among institutional investors,” says Rebecca Corbin, CEO of Corbin Advisors, whose research on institutional investor sentiment shows that 69% of institutional investors expect inflation to continue to rise in the second half of this year.

Just as it impacts a broader portfolio, inflation influences exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. Those securities follow various investment strategies, such as closely tracking indexes, following broader markets, or homing in on exposure to specific sectors or asset classes. iShares, asset manager BlackRock’s ETF business, released a quarterly guide on its rest-of-year outlook for the exchange-traded market. Here’s what you need to know:

The impact of inflation could be long-lasting

If you’re expecting prices to go back down soon, you may be disappointed, according to Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, head of iShares’ investment strategy in the Americas, who wrote about her anticipation for long-lasting inflation in the recent iShares 2021 outlook guide.

While Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has said rising inflation isn’t permanent, institutional investors tend to believe that the effects of inflation may take months or quarters to settle, according to Corbin.

“This inflation is across every element of goods and services,” she says. “That doesn't just evaporate overnight; it has to work its way through the system.”

Inflation will likely be longer-lasting than the last global economic recovery, iShares’ Chaudhuri writes. That’s because of the backdrop of economic growth, sustained fiscal and monetary policy support, higher production costs, and supply-chain diversification during the pandemic.

The good news? Value and small-cap stocks have performed well in the first half of this year because of the economic growth. In particular, cyclical ETFs, whose performance is closely tied to the success of the broader economy, have attracted $53 billion more in inflows than those in the defensive sector, which are meant to balance risk and stay stable during market downturns, according to iShares.

When inflation goes up, fixed-income yields suffer, as the purchasing power of the dollar goes down. iShares anticipates that bond yields will move “moderately higher,” but the ETF manager is not expecting much in terms of returns. The asset manager says it is favoring short-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and bonds linked to floating rates. Short-duration ETFs listed in the U.S. have attracted $7.7 billion in inflows thus far in 2021, according to iShares.

Quality over cyclic stocks

While the global economic boom may be sustainable, financial markets are hard to predict, and they don’t always cooperate with broader economic trends—as seen during the pandemic.

BlackRock’s iShares holds the position that it’s time to tilt portfolios toward companies with high return on equity, stable year-over-year earnings growth, and low financial leverage, known as “quality” stocks, rather than focus on ones whose prices tend to fluctuate based on broader economic trends (known as “cyclic” stocks or funds). These positions may be preferable and guard against rising input, labor, and financing costs—as well as potential corporate tax hikes.

“We see the potential for quality’s performance to improve as the economic cycle evolves, investors anticipate more normalized growth, and potentially become cautious about taxes, inflation, and the timing of a Federal Reserve policy shift,” Chaudhuri wrote in the outlook.

There has been about $1.7 billion in inflows to global quality ETFs in the second quarter of this year, according to iShares, which says it is particularly bullish on the technology sector.

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