立即打开
英国的经济复苏是否存在新的变数?

英国的经济复苏是否存在新的变数?

Sophie Mellor 2021年06月14日
有人担心新一轮封锁或者推迟解封会阻碍经济复苏。

对英国小企业主而言,全国解封的日子已经不远。英国商会的一项调查显示,有人对经济增长充满信心,也有人担心新一轮封锁或者推迟解封会阻碍经济复苏。

该项调查采访了1,000家英国小企业。超过一半英国小企业表示,其业务已经达到了新冠肺炎疫情之前的水平,并且制定了未来12个月的具体发展计划。

它们面临的唯一障碍是政府实行新一轮封锁。英国原定于6月21日全国解封。随着新增病例数持续增加,英国很有可能实行新一轮封锁措施。据英国公共卫生部透露,四分之三新增病例与传染力更强的印度变种病毒有关。

约40%的受访企业表示,未来实行封锁措施的威胁是复工复产的一大障碍。企业担心的其他问题包括客户需求减少、人员招聘困难和通货膨胀等。

与此同时,许多企业认为,只要能够获得资金支持,就可以克服其他障碍,实现经济重启。英国商会的政策联合执行主管克莱尔·沃克一直在反复强调这一点。他呼吁政府阐明安全措施,“并制定明确的支持方案,一旦今年再次施行封锁措施,这些政策能够立即付诸实施。”

上周,英国政府的“反弹贷款”计划执行将满一周年,英国政府通过该计划提供担保,向150万家小企业发放了465亿英镑贷款(约合658亿美元),在封锁期间帮助它们摆脱困境。目前,英国政府要求小企业在12个月还款宽限期期满后开始还款,包括通过“随增长偿还贷款”计划,该计划允许企业选择将贷款期限最长延长10年以及暂停还款。

与此同时,政府依旧在考虑是否按照原计划在6月21日解封。6月6日,英国卫生大臣马特·汉考克表示,现在谈论政府是否会如期解封仍然“为时尚早”。

6月1日,英国自2020年3月疫情爆发以来首次宣布全国零新冠肺炎相关死亡病例,但人们对于推迟解封的担忧却越来越强烈。贝伦贝格(Berenberg)的分析师在6月初警告称,新变种病毒的传播让投资者有理由担心。分析师怀疑英国“是否即将爆发‘第三’波严重疫情,可能需要政府再次执行封锁措施以限制病毒传播。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

对英国小企业主而言,全国解封的日子已经不远。英国商会的一项调查显示,有人对经济增长充满信心,也有人担心新一轮封锁或者推迟解封会阻碍经济复苏。

该项调查采访了1,000家英国小企业。超过一半英国小企业表示,其业务已经达到了新冠肺炎疫情之前的水平,并且制定了未来12个月的具体发展计划。

它们面临的唯一障碍是政府实行新一轮封锁。英国原定于6月21日全国解封。随着新增病例数持续增加,英国很有可能实行新一轮封锁措施。据英国公共卫生部透露,四分之三新增病例与传染力更强的印度变种病毒有关。

约40%的受访企业表示,未来实行封锁措施的威胁是复工复产的一大障碍。企业担心的其他问题包括客户需求减少、人员招聘困难和通货膨胀等。

与此同时,许多企业认为,只要能够获得资金支持,就可以克服其他障碍,实现经济重启。英国商会的政策联合执行主管克莱尔·沃克一直在反复强调这一点。他呼吁政府阐明安全措施,“并制定明确的支持方案,一旦今年再次施行封锁措施,这些政策能够立即付诸实施。”

上周,英国政府的“反弹贷款”计划执行将满一周年,英国政府通过该计划提供担保,向150万家小企业发放了465亿英镑贷款(约合658亿美元),在封锁期间帮助它们摆脱困境。目前,英国政府要求小企业在12个月还款宽限期期满后开始还款,包括通过“随增长偿还贷款”计划,该计划允许企业选择将贷款期限最长延长10年以及暂停还款。

与此同时,政府依旧在考虑是否按照原计划在6月21日解封。6月6日,英国卫生大臣马特·汉考克表示,现在谈论政府是否会如期解封仍然“为时尚早”。

6月1日,英国自2020年3月疫情爆发以来首次宣布全国零新冠肺炎相关死亡病例,但人们对于推迟解封的担忧却越来越强烈。贝伦贝格(Berenberg)的分析师在6月初警告称,新变种病毒的传播让投资者有理由担心。分析师怀疑英国“是否即将爆发‘第三’波严重疫情,可能需要政府再次执行封锁措施以限制病毒传播。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

For Britain’s small-business owners, the day is fast approaching when the country’s lockdown restrictions will end. And while some are confident about economic growth, others worry renewed or delayed lockdown restrictions will inhibit their path to recovery, according to a survey conducted by the British Chambers of Commerce.

More than half of small businesses in the U.K. said they were already operating at pre-pandemic capacity with concrete plans in place to grow their businesses over the next 12 months, according to the survey, which interviewed 1,000 small U.K. businesses.

The only thing that stands in their way is the threat of renewed lockdown restrictions, which are due to end on June 21. And with a rising number of cases—three-quarters of which could be traced to the more infectious Indian variant, according to Public Health England—that possibility is looming on the horizon.

Almost 40% of the companies surveyed said the threat of future lockdowns was a barrier to reopening their businesses. Other concerns included reduced demand from customers, difficulty recruiting staff, and inflation.

Meanwhile, many businesses believe that access to financing will help cover the remaining barriers to fully restarting. That was a point reiterated by Claire Walker, co–executive director of policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, who urged the government to clarify safety measures and “set out a clear package of support that would be available should further restrictions be imposed on businesses this year.”

Last week marks the first anniversary of the U.K. government’s “bounce back loan” program, in which the government backed £46.5 billion ($65.8 billion) in loans to 1.5 million small businesses to help them out while lockdown measures were instituted. The government is now asking small businesses to begin paying up after the 12-month payment holiday, including through a “Pay as You Grow” initiative, which gives businesses the option to extend the length of their loan by up to 10 years and to pause repayments.

Meanwhile, the government is still mulling whether it intends to stick to the original timeline of dropping all COVID-19 restrictions on June 21. On June 6, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it was still “too early” to say whether the government will be able to adhere to this date for lifting the measures.

While June 1 was the first day the U.K. reported no COVID-related deaths nationwide since the pandemic began in March 2020, the worry of a delayed reopening is mounting. Berenberg analysts at early June warned the spread of the new variant is giving investors cause for concern—questioning whether the U.K. is “on the cusp of another significant, ‘third’ wave that would require renewed restrictions to contain the spread of the virus.”

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开财富Plus App