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疫情对印度经济的打击,或许没有那么严重?

疫情对印度经济的打击,或许没有那么严重?

BIMAN MUKHERJI 2021年06月02日
印度股市的投资者仍对疲弱的前景不觉担忧。

周一,印度迎来了一则好消息:上一财年的经济萎缩幅度低于预期。

根据政府数据,印度上一个财政年(截至今年3月)的国内生产总值下降了7.3%。而印度官方在2月份的预估是缩水8%。

在印度公布这些经济数据的时候,其依然深陷在毁灭性的第二波疫情之中。新一波疫情已造成数百万人感染、数万人死亡。即使经济数据比预期的要好,也没有任何理由感到乐观:GDP下降7.3%,这仍然是自1951年以来最严重的记录。而且这些数字也没有完全体现从上一财年末开始席卷该国的第二波疫情的影响。事实上,1月至3月的季度数据显示,就在第二波疫情袭来之前,经济状况还比上一年增长了1.6%。

经济学家正在猜测印度将如何走出困境,一旦第二波疫情带来的经济损失如数尽显。

他们估计,最新的这一波疫情已将印度经济复苏的进程推迟了三到六个月,具体取决于病毒的发展状况,以及如果出现第三波疫情,该国的准备工作做得如何。

5月初,印度的每日感染人数达到400,000例以上的峰值,自那以后所好转:感染率现已降至每天152,734例,死亡人数降至每天3,128例左右,这是4周以来的最低点。

“经济复苏的进度可能只会放慢一个季度,前提是第二波疫情的影响不会超过6月,”安永(印度)的首席政策顾问斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示。他说,经济复苏将取决于未来几周和几个月的疫苗接种速度和政府政策干预程度。尽管目前疫苗供应短缺,但印度卫生部长哈什•瓦尔丹(Harsh Vardhan)已承诺,在今年年底前,至少要为印度所有成年人口接种疫苗。

普华永道(印度)的合伙人兼经济咨询服务负责人雷南•班纳吉(Ranen Banerjee)表示,第二波疫情将使印度经济复苏的步伐延缓六个月。

班纳吉说:“如果没有疫情的打击,那我们有望在本财年实现9%至10%的增长。”他曾估计,在第二波疫情到来前,印度今年的经济将增长11%。不过他也表示,第二波疫情给经济带来的冲击“不会很严重”。

尽管感染病例和死亡人数激增,但在封城期间,政府仍允许一些工厂继续开工,使工业生产并没有停滞太多,这减缓了经济下滑的情形。

为了避免印度经济受到如2020年3月第一波疫情时一样严重的伤害,纳伦德拉•莫迪政府拒绝在疫情期间宣布全国封锁。当时,印度实行的封锁措施是世界上最严格的之一。

班纳吉表示,制造业和服务业在4月份保持良好,耗电量等其他关键指标也是如此。但是,5月份的数据更能说明问题,将更准确地反映出第二波疫情造成的损害。

如果第二波浪潮持续缓解,印度传统的夏季作物播种季节(即 6 月至 9 月的季风季节)将不会受到影响。

由于去年降水充沛,印度去年的农作物收成创了记录。据印度气象局(India Meteorological Department)预测,今年即将到来的季风季也会有大量降水。

但是,第二波疫情已经蔓延到了印度的农村地区——约占该国商品和服务总需求的40%。“很多人都已经目睹了第二波疫情的威力,还有各种第三波疫情的传言。对消费者行为的影响显而易见。”惠誉国际(Fitch Group)旗下的印度评级与研究公司(India Ratings and Research)首席经济学家苏尼尔•辛哈说。

5月31日,领先的行业组织——印度工商联合会(Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry)表示,一项对其成员的新研究显示,在第二波疫情爆发之前的3月份,商业信心的分数已从近10年来的高点74.2分暴跌至55.5分。3月时,有56%的受访者对需求疲软表示担忧,现在达到了70%。预计近期销售情况会好转的公司数目则从66%降至31%。

但是,印度股市的投资者仍对疲弱的前景不觉担忧。5月31日,基准的标普BSE SENSEX指数上涨1%,至5193744点,为2月17日以来的最高水平(但是收盘时间是在GDP数据发布之前)。6月1日,乐观情绪并未减弱,该指数在早盘交易中上涨0.1%。

市场观察员表示,当前股票市场的乐观情绪来自于新冠新增病例数的减少,以及全球经济的复苏,后者将有助于印度出口业的回暖。

德勤印度(Deloitte India)经济学家让基•马宗达尔对印度今年下半年的经济前景表示乐观。

“经济活动会在下半财年迅速复苏。”她说,“感染率下降、疫苗接种速度或将加快以及接下来几个月即将到来的节日等因素,再加上被压制的旺盛需求,消费者和投资支出可能会得到提振。”

在夏季作物收获和排灯节等一系列节日开始之后的9月至10月,印度消费者倾向于购买更多的商品。(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪、杨二一

周一,印度迎来了一则好消息:上一财年的经济萎缩幅度低于预期。

根据政府数据,印度上一个财政年(截至今年3月)的国内生产总值下降了7.3%。而印度官方在2月份的预估是缩水8%。

在印度公布这些经济数据的时候,其依然深陷在毁灭性的第二波疫情之中。新一波疫情已造成数百万人感染、数万人死亡。即使经济数据比预期的要好,也没有任何理由感到乐观:GDP下降7.3%,这仍然是自1951年以来最严重的记录。而且这些数字也没有完全体现从上一财年末开始席卷该国的第二波疫情的影响。事实上,1月至3月的季度数据显示,就在第二波疫情袭来之前,经济状况还比上一年增长了1.6%。

经济学家正在猜测印度将如何走出困境,一旦第二波疫情带来的经济损失如数尽显。

他们估计,最新的这一波疫情已将印度经济复苏的进程推迟了三到六个月,具体取决于病毒的发展状况,以及如果出现第三波疫情,该国的准备工作做得如何。

5月初,印度的每日感染人数达到400,000例以上的峰值,自那以后所好转:感染率现已降至每天152,734例,死亡人数降至每天3,128例左右,这是4周以来的最低点。

“经济复苏的进度可能只会放慢一个季度,前提是第二波疫情的影响不会超过6月,”安永(印度)的首席政策顾问斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示。他说,经济复苏将取决于未来几周和几个月的疫苗接种速度和政府政策干预程度。尽管目前疫苗供应短缺,但印度卫生部长哈什•瓦尔丹(Harsh Vardhan)已承诺,在今年年底前,至少要为印度所有成年人口接种疫苗。

普华永道(印度)的合伙人兼经济咨询服务负责人雷南•班纳吉(Ranen Banerjee)表示,第二波疫情将使印度经济复苏的步伐延缓六个月。

班纳吉说:“如果没有疫情的打击,那我们有望在本财年实现9%至10%的增长。”他曾估计,在第二波疫情到来前,印度今年的经济将增长11%。不过他也表示,第二波疫情给经济带来的冲击“不会很严重”。

尽管感染病例和死亡人数激增,但在封城期间,政府仍允许一些工厂继续开工,使工业生产并没有停滞太多,这减缓了经济下滑的情形。

为了避免印度经济受到如2020年3月第一波疫情时一样严重的伤害,纳伦德拉•莫迪政府拒绝在疫情期间宣布全国封锁。当时,印度实行的封锁措施是世界上最严格的之一。

班纳吉表示,制造业和服务业在4月份保持良好,耗电量等其他关键指标也是如此。但是,5月份的数据更能说明问题,将更准确地反映出第二波疫情造成的损害。

如果第二波浪潮持续缓解,印度传统的夏季作物播种季节(即 6 月至 9 月的季风季节)将不会受到影响。

由于去年降水充沛,印度去年的农作物收成创了记录。据印度气象局(India Meteorological Department)预测,今年即将到来的季风季也会有大量降水。

但是,第二波疫情已经蔓延到了印度的农村地区——约占该国商品和服务总需求的40%。“很多人都已经目睹了第二波疫情的威力,还有各种第三波疫情的传言。对消费者行为的影响显而易见。”惠誉国际(Fitch Group)旗下的印度评级与研究公司(India Ratings and Research)首席经济学家苏尼尔•辛哈说。

5月31日,领先的行业组织——印度工商联合会(Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry)表示,一项对其成员的新研究显示,在第二波疫情爆发之前的3月份,商业信心的分数已从近10年来的高点74.2分暴跌至55.5分。3月时,有56%的受访者对需求疲软表示担忧,现在达到了70%。预计近期销售情况会好转的公司数目则从66%降至31%。

但是,印度股市的投资者仍对疲弱的前景不觉担忧。5月31日,基准的标普BSE SENSEX指数上涨1%,至5193744点,为2月17日以来的最高水平(但是收盘时间是在GDP数据发布之前)。6月1日,乐观情绪并未减弱,该指数在早盘交易中上涨0.1%。

市场观察员表示,当前股票市场的乐观情绪来自于新冠新增病例数的减少,以及全球经济的复苏,后者将有助于印度出口业的回暖。

德勤印度(Deloitte India)经济学家让基•马宗达尔对印度今年下半年的经济前景表示乐观。

“经济活动会在下半财年迅速复苏。”她说,“感染率下降、疫苗接种速度或将加快以及接下来几个月即将到来的节日等因素,再加上被压制的旺盛需求,消费者和投资支出可能会得到提振。”

在夏季作物收获和排灯节等一系列节日开始之后的9月至10月,印度消费者倾向于购买更多的商品。(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪、杨二一

India received a sliver of good news on Monday: Its economy shrank less than expected last fiscal year.

According to government figures, the country’s gross domestic product dropped 7.3% in the fiscal year ended in March. In February, officials estimated the economy would contract by 8%.

India published its economic data as it continues to confront a devastating second wave of COVID-19 that has infected millions and killed tens of thousands. Even though the results surpassed expectations, there was little reason to be upbeat: The 7.3% GDP drop is still the worst on record since 1951. The numbers also do not fully account for the second COVID wave that ravaged the country starting at the end of the last fiscal year. In fact, quarterly data for January through March shows the economy grew 1.6% versus the previous year right before the second wave hit.

Economists are now speculating about how India will dig itself out of that hole once the second wave’s economic damage is fully realized.

They estimate that the latest outbreak has pushed back India’s economic recovery by three to six months, depending on the virus’s trajectory and the nation’s preparedness for a possible third wave.

Since hitting a peak above 400,000 daily cases in early May, the infection rate has dropped to 152,734 per day, and the number of deaths have fallen to around a four-week low of 3,128 daily.

“The delay in economic recovery would be limited to just about a quarter, provided the COVID’s second wave is not allowed to last much beyond June,” said D.K. Srivastava, chief policy adviser at EY India. He said the economic recovery would depend on the pace of vaccination and government policy interventions in the coming weeks and months. India’s Health Minister, Harsh Vardhan, has pledged to vaccinate at least all of the adult population by the end of the year, notwithstanding a current supply shortage.

Ranen Banerjee, partner and leader of economic advisory services at accounting firm PwC India, says the second wave will delay India’s economic recovery by six months.

“If we are not hit by any more COVID waves, then we can expect to grow in the range of 9% to 10% this financial year,” Banerjee said. Prior to the second wave of COVID, he had estimated that India’s economy would grow by 11% this year. Still, he says, the second wave’s economic disruption “will not be very severe.”

Despite the surge in COVID cases and deaths, state governments have allowed some factories to stay open, even amid lockdowns, which has blunted any downturn in industrial activity.

The Narendra Modi administration has resisted declaring a nationwide lockdown during this outbreak partly to spare the economy the harm it endured in the first wave in March 2020, when India enforced one of the world’s strictest sets of restrictions.

Manufacturing and services sector activity held up well in April, Banerjee said, as did other key indicators like electricity consumption. But data for May will be especially telling since it will better reflect the damage done by the second wave.

If the second wave continues to ease, it will spare India’s traditional summer crop sowing season, which takes place during monsoon season, from June to September.

India produced a record crop last year following a bountiful rainy period. The India Meteorological Department has predicted good monsoon rains for the upcoming season too.

Still, the second wave has spread to India’s rural areas, which account for roughly 40% of overall demand for goods and services. “Lots of people have witnessed the second wave, and there is talk of a third wave. You will see an impact on consumer behavior,” said Sunil Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings and Research, a Fitch Group company.

On Monday, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, a leading industry body, said a new survey of its members showed that business confidence had plunged to a score of 55.5 after touching a 10-year high of 74.2 in a survey conducted prior to the second wave of COVID in March. Seventy percent of participants in the new survey reported being concerned about weak demand, versus 56% in March. The number of firms expecting better sales in the near term declined to 31% from 66%.

Meanwhile, investors in India’s stock markets remain unfazed by the weak outlook. The benchmark S&P BSE SENSEX on Monday rose by 1% to 51,937,44, the highest since Feb. 17, though the close came before the release of GDP data. On Tuesday, the positive sentiment was undimmed. The index ticked up 0.1% in early trading.

Market observers say the current stock market sentiment is driven by relief over falling COVID cases as well as prospects of a global recovery, which will help Indian exports.

Rumki Majumdar, economist at Deloitte India, was optimistic about India’s economic prospects later this year.

“Economic activity will pick up rapidly in the second half of the financial year,” she said. Factors such as falling infections, a potential increase in the pace of vaccination, and the oncoming festivals in the following months will likely boost consumer and investment spending owing to strong pent-up demand.”

Indian consumers tend to buy more goods starting in September and October, following the harvest of summer crops and as a series of festivals, including Diwali, get underway.

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