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抛售潮过后,比特币迎来关键时刻

抛售潮过后,比特币迎来关键时刻

Vildana Hajric, Lu Wang, 彭博社 2021年05月07日
如果比特币无法超越其50日均线,那么当50日线和100日线收敛时,就可能会进入一段波动期。

技术性分析显示,比特币(Bitcoin)在经历了近期的抛售潮之后迎来关键时刻。

尽管这款加密货币在过去100天内反弹至均价之上,但其交易价格仍然低于自身50日移动平均线。这种技术形态通常意味着资产正在接近拐点。

如果比特币无法超越其50日均线(约为57000美元),那么当50日线和100日线收敛时,就可能会进入一段波动期,即在两条趋势线交汇的空白处往复。技术指标显示,突破并非易事,而且比特币于4月下旬在多个场合中均未能得偿所愿。

在4月中旬突破64000美元大关这一历史新高之后,这个全球最大规模数字资产的交易在前些天可谓是跌宕起伏。自那之后,比特币价格的降幅超过了15%,不过,受利好消息影响,其价格在4月下旬有所反弹。这些消息包括:特斯拉公司(Tesla Inc.)的首席财务官重申了公司对加密货币的承诺。

ProChain Capital的总裁大卫·塔维尔称:“比特币的大幅下挫,也就是我们近期所看到的这个现象,让人感到震惊不已。然而最终,我认为比特币能够反弹并企稳是件好事。这一现象说明了代币的真正力量,也就是作为一种资产类别的持久力。”

美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)宣布,该机构将延迟对比特币交易所交易基金的裁决时间。4月28日,比特币价格应声下滑1.4%,4月29日上午9:43的香港交易价为54586美元。

CFRA Research的首席投资策略师萨姆·斯特沃尔表示,如果股票市场继续上涨,那么他预计比特币也将紧随其后。

尽管遭遇近期的动荡,比特币同比涨幅依然达到了511%。研究资产与宏观因素之间关系的伦敦分析研究公司Quant Insight称,在过去12个月中,通胀和央行政策是比特币价格上涨的最大推手。

尽管有人并不认为比特币可以作为对冲通胀的工具,但这个观点一直是其牛市的重要支撑原则,而且众多加密货币拥趸对此深信不疑。支持者则利用印钞论来宣传这个观点:比特币是一种贮藏手段。这个观点在最近几个月中越发受到人们的关注,经济学家预计其价格压力将有所增加。

Essex Financial Services的总裁兼首席执行官查克·库梅罗说:“毫无疑问,比特币引起大量关注的原因在于已经发行和即将发行的大量货币。此外还有一个显而易见的道理:当如此多的钱涌入经济系统时,通胀将不可避免。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

技术性分析显示,比特币(Bitcoin)在经历了近期的抛售潮之后迎来关键时刻。

尽管这款加密货币在过去100天内反弹至均价之上,但其交易价格仍然低于自身50日移动平均线。这种技术形态通常意味着资产正在接近拐点。

如果比特币无法超越其50日均线(约为57000美元),那么当50日线和100日线收敛时,就可能会进入一段波动期,即在两条趋势线交汇的空白处往复。技术指标显示,突破并非易事,而且比特币于4月下旬在多个场合中均未能得偿所愿。

在4月中旬突破64000美元大关这一历史新高之后,这个全球最大规模数字资产的交易在前些天可谓是跌宕起伏。自那之后,比特币价格的降幅超过了15%,不过,受利好消息影响,其价格在4月下旬有所反弹。这些消息包括:特斯拉公司(Tesla Inc.)的首席财务官重申了公司对加密货币的承诺。

ProChain Capital的总裁大卫·塔维尔称:“比特币的大幅下挫,也就是我们近期所看到的这个现象,让人感到震惊不已。然而最终,我认为比特币能够反弹并企稳是件好事。这一现象说明了代币的真正力量,也就是作为一种资产类别的持久力。”

美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)宣布,该机构将延迟对比特币交易所交易基金的裁决时间。4月28日,比特币价格应声下滑1.4%,4月29日上午9:43的香港交易价为54586美元。

CFRA Research的首席投资策略师萨姆·斯特沃尔表示,如果股票市场继续上涨,那么他预计比特币也将紧随其后。

尽管遭遇近期的动荡,比特币同比涨幅依然达到了511%。研究资产与宏观因素之间关系的伦敦分析研究公司Quant Insight称,在过去12个月中,通胀和央行政策是比特币价格上涨的最大推手。

尽管有人并不认为比特币可以作为对冲通胀的工具,但这个观点一直是其牛市的重要支撑原则,而且众多加密货币拥趸对此深信不疑。支持者则利用印钞论来宣传这个观点:比特币是一种贮藏手段。这个观点在最近几个月中越发受到人们的关注,经济学家预计其价格压力将有所增加。

Essex Financial Services的总裁兼首席执行官查克·库梅罗说:“毫无疑问,比特币引起大量关注的原因在于已经发行和即将发行的大量货币。此外还有一个显而易见的道理:当如此多的钱涌入经济系统时,通胀将不可避免。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Bitcoin is facing a make-or-break moment following a recent bout of selling, according to technical analysis.

Though the cryptocurrency has rebounded above its average price over the past 100 days, it’s still trading below its 50-day moving average. Such a dynamic typically indicates an asset is nearing an inflection point.

If Bitcoin can’t overtake its 50-day mean -- which currently sits at about $57,000 -- then it might be in for a period of volatility as the gap between the two trend lines converges. Technical indicators suggest breaking out might not be an easy feat -- Bitcoin failed to do so on several occasions late April.

Trading in the world’s largest digital asset has been choppy in recent days after it hit a record high in mid-April above $64,000. It’s down more than 15% since then, though it rebounded at late April amid positive news, including comments from Tesla Inc.’s chief financial officer that reiterated the company’s commitment to the cryptocurrency.

“The drastic -- relative to what we’ve seen of late -- pullback certainly was a point of eyebrows being raised, but at the end of the day, I think the fact that things were able to rebound and stabilize is a good thing,” said David Tawil, president of ProChain Capital. “It shows real power to the token, the staying power to the asset class.”

The coin fell 1.4% on April 28 following an announcement by the Securities and Exchange Commission that it will delay a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. It was at about $54,586 as of 9:43 a.m. in Hong Kong on April 29.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that if the stock market continues its advance, he expected Bitcoin to follow.

Despite its recent turbulence, Bitcoin is still up 511% over the past year. Inflation and central bank policies have been its biggest drivers during the past 12 months, according to Quant Insight, a London-based analytics research firm that studies the relationship between assets and macro factors.

While some dispute the idea that Bitcoin can act as an inflation hedge, the argument has been a key tenet for its bullish thesis and rings true for a lot of crypto fans. Proponents have seized on the money-printing narrative to promote the notion that Bitcoin is a store of wealth, an explanation that’s gained traction in recent months with economists expecting price pressures to pick up.

“No question about it -- what drives a big chunk of the interest in Bitcoin has been just the tremendous amount of money that has been printed and will be printed and really the fundamental thought that you cannot have that much money in the system and not have it be inflationary,” said Chuck Cumello, president and chief executive officer of Essex Financial Services.

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