立即打开
死亡人数大幅攀升,瑞典政府不再“特立独行”

死亡人数大幅攀升,瑞典政府不再“特立独行”

Rafaela Lindeberg, Niclas Rolander, Love Liman, 彭博社 2021-01-18
有人认为,瑞典政府做的太少,也做的太晚了。

在应对新冠疫情时,瑞典先前采取的都是最温和的措施。时至今日,瑞典终于宣布,将收紧疫情防控措施。

自1月10日起,瑞典首相斯特凡•勒文领导下的政府将根据一项有效期至9月的新法案,向违反出行限制、私下聚会限制等条例的企业收取罚款,并采取强制停业的措施。也就是说,瑞典政府将不再以推荐性规范为主要导向,并且对公众的自觉性失去了信任。眼下,瑞典医疗体系所背负的压力与日俱增,新冠疫情导致的死亡人数也出现了大幅攀升。有人认为,瑞典政府做的太少,也做的太晚了。

位于波士顿的哈佛大学公共卫生学院(Harvard’s School of Public Health)的流行病学副教授威廉•哈纳奇一直对瑞典的抗疫战略保持着密切的关注,他说:“和其他许多地区一样,瑞典也在此次疫情中经历了惨痛的教训。瑞典政府行动得太慢了。早在去年春季,瑞典等地的状况就充分表明,如果不在政策方面作出改变,到了秋冬肯定会变得更糟。当初的不作为就导致了如今这样的结果。”

在特立独行地推行温和战略的同时,瑞典还在质疑其他国家实行封锁的决定。基于对强制性限制措施的排斥态度,这个北欧国家的新冠死亡率高达其邻国丹麦的三倍以上。公众对政府的信赖程度不断下降,高层政府官员(包括勒文本人)对规定的无视则让局面变得更加糟糕。就连国王卡尔十六世•古斯塔夫也承认,瑞典的新冠防治策略已经失败。

和世界上的其他地区一样,疫情期间的话题焦点都集中在公众健康和经济停滞后果间的衡量上。瑞典现今的经济状况要好过大多数国家,但新冠死亡人数已经超过了9600人。

去年6月时,顶尖的流行病学家安德斯•蒂格内尔声称,那些选择实行严格封锁政策的国家简直是“疯了”。他认为,针对疫情实施的法案应当是已执行措施的一种延伸,而不是对先前策略的彻底否定。

“我们主要还是在考虑针对个体的推荐性规范。”他在接受采访时表示,“并且,我们正致力于对各种机构,以及各种需要约束才能履行其义务的商店实施监管。”

乌普萨拉大学(Uppsala University)的比约恩•奥尔森教授是批判蒂格内尔观点的主力之一,他表示,“现实已经狠狠地打了公共卫生机构一耳光”。

他说:“他们一直极其固执地坚持这一战略,拒绝聆听不同的声音,也没有进行任何外部分析。”

去年春季时,安德斯•利森71岁的母亲阿格妮莎离开了人世,他全副武装,陪着母亲度过了人生的最后16个小时。42岁的利森因为疫情失去了工作,只能在一家医院里干杂活。他说,政府发布的讯息太模糊了。

“我的母亲,以及(我认为)大多数瑞典人,都没有把疫情当回事。”利森说,“我不知道瑞典政府的做法是对是错,但从个人角度来看,我认为,在传达某个讯息的时候,必须要强烈且明确地表述清楚。”

早些时候,勒文和卫生官员受到了来自美国总统唐纳德•特朗普等方面的批评,并在去年4月时承认,瑞典未能保护好疗养院内的老年人群体。一个由政府指派的委员会近期也得出了类似的结论。

1月11日,世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)的应急方案执行主任迈克尔•瑞安在记者会上表示,瑞典加强防控措施的决定“非常明智”。

“瑞典的状况表明,在贯彻执行公共卫生和社会保障措施的过程中,若是纯粹地以个人意愿和决心为导向,肯定会引发相当严重的问题。”瑞安说,“从某种程度上说,我们可以从中感受到,2021年年初的形势有多艰难,挑战性有多大。”

健康与经济

这个北欧地区最大的经济体在面对危机时的表现要好于大多数西方国家,在2020年下半年发生供应中断时,该国工厂所受到的影响也比较小。

瑞典北欧斯安银行(SEB AB)的首席经济学家罗伯特•贝里奎斯特认为,北欧和波罗的海国家对制造业的依赖抵消了封锁政策差异所造成的影响,因此,他们都能从全球贸易逐渐复苏的过程中获益。“回顾整个2020年,在其他许多国家都出现衰退时,是制造业帮助我们撑了过来。”

瑞典的低公共债务也为瑞典央行扩大资产购买计划,以推行财政刺激的方案提供了良好条件。丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)在1月初发布的北欧经济展望报告中表示,虽然针对疫情实施的法案可能需要加以额外的刺激,但“从国际角度来看,瑞典的中央政府财政仍能保持强劲的势头。”

领导力失效

政府举措受到的批判与日俱增,选民对首相勒文的信任度也在逐步下降。他被人发现在去年圣诞节期间逛了购物中心,他的财政部部长被人拍到在度假胜地租用了滑雪板,还有新冠病毒应对小组的高级官员去加那利群岛过了圣诞,这都有违于勒文政府对民众发出的防疫呼吁。反对派也把握住了这个攻击的机会。

在1月11日的国家安全会议上,瑞典主要反对派的领袖乌尔夫•克里斯特松称,“新闻发布会上的严肃态度并不能阻止疫情的传播”,并斥责政府“缺乏领导力,准备不充分,责任分工也不明确”。

《瑞典晚报》(Aftonbladet)和Demoskop公司最新的民意调查数据显示,瑞典社会民主党的支持率下降了2%,跌至23%,克里斯特松所在的温和党则以23.2%的支持率实现反超,成为了瑞典的第一大政党。基于目前的政治体制,勒文的地位暂时还不会被动摇。

乌普萨拉大学的奥尔森教授表示,最近的状况“有所好转”,但强制佩戴口罩、关停学校等必要的措施还没有彻底落实。瑞典的小学如今仍未停课。

“我们本应着手大规模地推行疫苗接种,但却在控制病毒传播、防止疫情蔓延上花费了大量精力。”奥尔森说,“政府的态度很敷衍,行动也很迟缓。而在面对相同的局面时,其他许多国家都会采取彻底封锁的策略。”

1月12日,瑞典卫生部门称,截至1月10日,至少已经有8万人接种了新冠疫苗,占该国人口总数的0.8%。彭博社(Bloomberg)对新冠疫苗的追踪记录显示,丹麦已经有2%的人口接种了疫苗,瑞典的接种率相比较低。

瑞典北欧斯安银行(SEB)的贝里奎斯特说:“我认为,在这一时期,接种疫苗比实行封锁更加关键。”

在失去母亲之后,利森决定加入抗击疫情的队伍。他认为,严格的限制策略本应更早地取代推荐性规范。“认为整个国家的人都能遵守推荐性规范,而不直接颁布法案,这实在是太天真了。”(财富中文网)

本文由科琳娜•格雷特勒和尼克•里吉洛协助撰写。

译者:殷圆圆

在应对新冠疫情时,瑞典先前采取的都是最温和的措施。时至今日,瑞典终于宣布,将收紧疫情防控措施。

自1月10日起,瑞典首相斯特凡•勒文领导下的政府将根据一项有效期至9月的新法案,向违反出行限制、私下聚会限制等条例的企业收取罚款,并采取强制停业的措施。也就是说,瑞典政府将不再以推荐性规范为主要导向,并且对公众的自觉性失去了信任。眼下,瑞典医疗体系所背负的压力与日俱增,新冠疫情导致的死亡人数也出现了大幅攀升。有人认为,瑞典政府做的太少,也做的太晚了。

位于波士顿的哈佛大学公共卫生学院(Harvard’s School of Public Health)的流行病学副教授威廉•哈纳奇一直对瑞典的抗疫战略保持着密切的关注,他说:“和其他许多地区一样,瑞典也在此次疫情中经历了惨痛的教训。瑞典政府行动得太慢了。早在去年春季,瑞典等地的状况就充分表明,如果不在政策方面作出改变,到了秋冬肯定会变得更糟。当初的不作为就导致了如今这样的结果。”

在特立独行地推行温和战略的同时,瑞典还在质疑其他国家实行封锁的决定。基于对强制性限制措施的排斥态度,这个北欧国家的新冠死亡率高达其邻国丹麦的三倍以上。公众对政府的信赖程度不断下降,高层政府官员(包括勒文本人)对规定的无视则让局面变得更加糟糕。就连国王卡尔十六世•古斯塔夫也承认,瑞典的新冠防治策略已经失败。

和世界上的其他地区一样,疫情期间的话题焦点都集中在公众健康和经济停滞后果间的衡量上。瑞典现今的经济状况要好过大多数国家,但新冠死亡人数已经超过了9600人。

去年6月时,顶尖的流行病学家安德斯•蒂格内尔声称,那些选择实行严格封锁政策的国家简直是“疯了”。他认为,针对疫情实施的法案应当是已执行措施的一种延伸,而不是对先前策略的彻底否定。

“我们主要还是在考虑针对个体的推荐性规范。”他在接受采访时表示,“并且,我们正致力于对各种机构,以及各种需要约束才能履行其义务的商店实施监管。”

乌普萨拉大学(Uppsala University)的比约恩•奥尔森教授是批判蒂格内尔观点的主力之一,他表示,“现实已经狠狠地打了公共卫生机构一耳光”。

他说:“他们一直极其固执地坚持这一战略,拒绝聆听不同的声音,也没有进行任何外部分析。”

去年春季时,安德斯•利森71岁的母亲阿格妮莎离开了人世,他全副武装,陪着母亲度过了人生的最后16个小时。42岁的利森因为疫情失去了工作,只能在一家医院里干杂活。他说,政府发布的讯息太模糊了。

“我的母亲,以及(我认为)大多数瑞典人,都没有把疫情当回事。”利森说,“我不知道瑞典政府的做法是对是错,但从个人角度来看,我认为,在传达某个讯息的时候,必须要强烈且明确地表述清楚。”

早些时候,勒文和卫生官员受到了来自美国总统唐纳德•特朗普等方面的批评,并在去年4月时承认,瑞典未能保护好疗养院内的老年人群体。一个由政府指派的委员会近期也得出了类似的结论。

1月11日,世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)的应急方案执行主任迈克尔•瑞安在记者会上表示,瑞典加强防控措施的决定“非常明智”。

“瑞典的状况表明,在贯彻执行公共卫生和社会保障措施的过程中,若是纯粹地以个人意愿和决心为导向,肯定会引发相当严重的问题。”瑞安说,“从某种程度上说,我们可以从中感受到,2021年年初的形势有多艰难,挑战性有多大。”

健康与经济

这个北欧地区最大的经济体在面对危机时的表现要好于大多数西方国家,在2020年下半年发生供应中断时,该国工厂所受到的影响也比较小。

瑞典北欧斯安银行(SEB AB)的首席经济学家罗伯特•贝里奎斯特认为,北欧和波罗的海国家对制造业的依赖抵消了封锁政策差异所造成的影响,因此,他们都能从全球贸易逐渐复苏的过程中获益。“回顾整个2020年,在其他许多国家都出现衰退时,是制造业帮助我们撑了过来。”

瑞典的低公共债务也为瑞典央行扩大资产购买计划,以推行财政刺激的方案提供了良好条件。丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)在1月初发布的北欧经济展望报告中表示,虽然针对疫情实施的法案可能需要加以额外的刺激,但“从国际角度来看,瑞典的中央政府财政仍能保持强劲的势头。”

领导力失效

政府举措受到的批判与日俱增,选民对首相勒文的信任度也在逐步下降。他被人发现在去年圣诞节期间逛了购物中心,他的财政部部长被人拍到在度假胜地租用了滑雪板,还有新冠病毒应对小组的高级官员去加那利群岛过了圣诞,这都有违于勒文政府对民众发出的防疫呼吁。反对派也把握住了这个攻击的机会。

在1月11日的国家安全会议上,瑞典主要反对派的领袖乌尔夫•克里斯特松称,“新闻发布会上的严肃态度并不能阻止疫情的传播”,并斥责政府“缺乏领导力,准备不充分,责任分工也不明确”。

《瑞典晚报》(Aftonbladet)和Demoskop公司最新的民意调查数据显示,瑞典社会民主党的支持率下降了2%,跌至23%,克里斯特松所在的温和党则以23.2%的支持率实现反超,成为了瑞典的第一大政党。基于目前的政治体制,勒文的地位暂时还不会被动摇。

乌普萨拉大学的奥尔森教授表示,最近的状况“有所好转”,但强制佩戴口罩、关停学校等必要的措施还没有彻底落实。瑞典的小学如今仍未停课。

“我们本应着手大规模地推行疫苗接种,但却在控制病毒传播、防止疫情蔓延上花费了大量精力。”奥尔森说,“政府的态度很敷衍,行动也很迟缓。而在面对相同的局面时,其他许多国家都会采取彻底封锁的策略。”

1月12日,瑞典卫生部门称,截至1月10日,至少已经有8万人接种了新冠疫苗,占该国人口总数的0.8%。彭博社(Bloomberg)对新冠疫苗的追踪记录显示,丹麦已经有2%的人口接种了疫苗,瑞典的接种率相比较低。

瑞典北欧斯安银行(SEB)的贝里奎斯特说:“我认为,在这一时期,接种疫苗比实行封锁更加关键。”

在失去母亲之后,利森决定加入抗击疫情的队伍。他认为,严格的限制策略本应更早地取代推荐性规范。“认为整个国家的人都能遵守推荐性规范,而不直接颁布法案,这实在是太天真了。”(财富中文网)

本文由科琳娜•格雷特勒和尼克•里吉洛协助撰写。

译者:殷圆圆

After taking arguably the world’s softest approach to handling the coronavirus pandemic, Sweden is tightening the screws.

As of January 10, the government of Premier Stefan Lofven can fine and shutter businesses that fail to follow restrictions such as caps on visitors, as well as restrict private gatherings, under a new law that runs through September. It’s a departure from relying mainly on recommendations and trusting people to follow them. With the health-care system under increasing duress and deaths surging, some say it was too little too late.

“Like many places Sweden has learned about the virus the hard way,” said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s School of Public Health in Boston, who has followed the country’s strategy closely. “Sweden was too slow. There was ample evidence from the spring, in Sweden and elsewhere, of what could be expected in the autumn and winter if the policy was not changed and these are the consequences.”

While pursuing its unusual strategy, Sweden questioned other nations’ decisions to lock down. Its path to mandatory restrictions has left the Nordic country with more than three times more virus deaths per capita than Denmark, the closest regional peer in terms of fatalities. Confidence in the government has dwindled, and been compounded by top officials -- including Lofven himself -- flouting their own rules. Even King Carl XVI Gustaf called the nation’s response a failure.

As in the rest of the world, the debate in the pandemic era has centered around balancing people’s health against the fallout of shutting down economies. Sweden’s economy has held up better than most, while deaths now exceed 9,600.

Top epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who in June labeled countries that opted for strict lockdowns as “mad,” said the pandemic law shouldn’t be seen as a U-turn, but rather an extension of what’s already been done.

“We’re still mainly working with voluntary measures for individuals,” he said in an interview. “And we’re mainly working with regulating different kinds of agencies, different kinds of shops were regulations are needed for them to fulfill their obligations.”

One of Tegnell’s main detractors, Professor Bjorn Olsen of Uppsala University, said “reality has caught up with the Public Health Agency.”

“They have been extremely stubborn in holding on to the strategy without listening or doing any external analysis,” he said.

Anders Litzen lost his 71-year-old mother Agnetha in the spring, sitting by her side for her last 16 hours in full protective gear. The 42-year-old, who lost his job because of the pandemic and started working as a runner at a hospital, said the government’s communication has been too vague.

“My mother, and I think most Swedes, didn’t really take it seriously,” Litzen said. “I can’t say that what Sweden did is right or wrong, but from a personal perspective I think when you want to send a message, it has to be strong and clear.”

Lofven and health officials, facing early criticism including from President Donald Trump, acknowledged in April that the country hadn’t succeeded in protecting its elderly in nursing homes. A government-appointed commission recently reached a similar conclusion.

Sweden made “good decisions” in moving toward stricter measures, Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization’s emergencies program, told reporters on January 11.

“It’s an example of how difficult it is to sustain public health and social measures that are purely determined by the individual’s willingness or determination to carry out those measures,” Ryan said. “It somehow tells us that at the beginning of 2021 how difficult, how challenging that environment is.”

Health Versus Economy

The Nordic region’s largest economy has weathered the crisis better than most Western nations, with its factories less affected by supply disruptions in the latter part of 2020.

Differences in lockdown strategies between the Nordic and Baltic countries were offset by their common dependence on manufacturing, so they’ve benefited from a recovery of global trade, according to SEB AB Chief Economist Robert Bergqvist. “When we summarize 2020, the industry has helped us to withstand some of the downturns seen in many other countries.”

Low debt levels also allowed Sweden to unleash fiscal stimulus, supported by the Riksbank’s asset purchase program. While the pandemic law may require additional stimulus measures, “in an international perspective, Sweden will still continue to have very strong central government finances,” Danske Bank said in its Nordic Outlook at early January.

Leadership Void

Prime Minister Lofven has seen voter confidence erode as criticism of the government’s response mounted. It didn’t help that he was spotted among Christmas shoppers in a mall, his finance minister was caught renting skis at a resort and the top official running the corona-virus response team took a Christmas trip to the Canary Islands, all of which went against official guidelines. And the opposition isn’t pulling punches.

“Infection transmission won’t be stopped by a serious tone at a press conference,” main opposition leader Ulf Kristersson told a national security conference on January 11, lambasting the government for “a lack of leadership, bad preparations and unclear division of responsibilities.”

Support for the Social Democrats fell 2 percentage points to 23%, while Kristersson’s Moderate Party edged ahead with 23.2% voter backing to become Sweden’t biggest party in the latest Aftonbladet/Demoskop poll. There’s no imminent threat to Lofven’s job given the political system.

The recent response has been “a partial turnaround” that has fallen short of what’s needed, such as mandating face masks and closing more schools, Olsen of Uppsala University said. Primary schools remain open.

“Now we should be very busy vaccinating, but a lot of effort is going into just keeping a lid on transmission so that it doesn’t boil over,” Olsen said. “It’s constantly half-hearted, limping efforts. What many other countries would have done in this situation would be to close down entirely.”

Sweden had inoculated at least 80,000 people by Jan. 10, or 0.8% of its population, health authorities said on January 12. That’s below Denmark’s 2% tally, based on the Bloomberg Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker.

“At this stage of the crisis, I think it will be less about lockdown strategy and more a matter of vaccine strategy,” SEB’s Bergqvist said.

Litzen, who decided to help in the pandemic fight after losing his mother, says tougher restrictions should have taken the place of voluntary recommendations earlier. “When it comes to recommended regulations, it’s very naive to think that a whole country can follow through unless you make it some sort of law.”

With assistance from Corinne Gretler and Nick Rigillo.

热读文章
热门视频
扫描二维码下载财富APP