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疫情之下,个人财产如何才能“幸存”?

疫情之下,个人财产如何才能“幸存”?

BEN CARLSON 2020年12月28日
在处处皆“疯”的年度语境中,适当的个人理财规则将变得尤为重要。

2020是艰难的一年。

全球疫情袭来,工厂倒闭、全行业濒临崩溃,许多美国民众的个人财务受到了持续的破坏。处于收入阶梯顶端的人通过各种投资组合,得到了股市上涨的红利提振,但处于阶梯另一端的人,他们的经历将截然不同:失业潮、高台垒筑的账单,都在等待着他们。

投资者们骤然跌入熊市,年底时却迎来了前所未有的强劲反弹。但是,无论身处何处,在处处皆“疯”的年度语境中,适当的个人理财规则都将变得尤为重要。以下将列出几个关于个人财务的提议。鸣谢《财富》定期撰稿人本•卡尔森。

信用卡债务,避之如病毒

个人理财的第一条准则即为,永远不要信用卡负债。信用卡的借贷利率高得惊人,支付这些沉重的债务无疑会恶化你的财产状况。如果你还得花长时间去还信用卡债务,那就别提投资的事了。

储蓄比投资更重要

“先支付自己”,这个提议相当简单,但很少有人能做到这一点。你所能做的最好的投资决定,就是为自己的财产设定一个高储蓄率。高储蓄率能够给你的生活带来相当大的“安全边际”:你无法控制利率水平、股市表现、衰退及熊市的到来,但储蓄率是你绝对能控制的东西。

检查你的借款情况

正如卡尔森在3月份所写的那样,当经济遭受严重打击时,仍有一线希望。如果你在12个月之前申请了一笔35万美元的抵押贷款,则可能会锁定利率为4.5%左右的30年期固定利率抵押贷款。这相当于每月要还大约1775美元(不包括税和保险)。而股市下跌后,30年期固定利率抵押贷款利率降低至近3.3%。同样是35万美元的抵押贷款,相当于每月还1530美元左右,每月节省了245美元。在经济放缓期间,这些省出来的资金在一定程度上提供了缓冲。可见,股市暴跌带来的好处是,贷款利率降低了,人们的负债能力提高了。

大型商品,购之有道

卡尔森曾说:“我知道我不应该这么武断,但每当我看到路上有5万多美元的SUV,或者是巨型麦克豪宅时,我脑海中闪现的第一反应就是,‘他们为退休攒了多少钱?’。”个人理财专家喜欢在拿铁咖啡等细枝末节上做文章,但你必须知道,在保持财务井然的过程中,那些“最大头”的购买行为其实最重要——无外乎两样东西,住房和交通。在这两样东西上花费过多,带来的后果可能将非常严重:因为它们代表着固定成本,且它们带来的伴随性花销也比大家想象的要多。

年轻投资者应该期待熊市

年轻投资者更应该期待熊市到来,因为熊市能让他们以更低的价格购买更多的股票。作为一个新手投资者,人力资本是你最大的资产。这意味着,你未来的收入预期应该能让你在一段时间内节省资金,并帮助您完成繁重的工作。

不要屈服于恐惧

熊市不是一个对资产配置进行全面调整的好时机,因为在熊市时,你的决策能力会受到情绪的影响。投资时,无论是全部押注还是全盘退出,都很危险。可能会有一两次走了运,但最终你所做出的,大部分还是“大繁荣前卖出、大萧条前买入”这样的操作。有四种抛售的情形,是卡尔森所赞同的:当你需要“再平衡”的时候,当你需要投资组合多样化的时候,当你的投资观点被证误的时候,以及当你已经“赢了这场游戏”,准备退出的时候。

快退休了,宜保守

退休之初,熊市可能比牛市更具挑战性,但有一些方法可以让你为最近可能遭受到的挫败做好准备,而且毫无疑问,这种情形还会再次降临。至少要花三年的时间将资金投入到优质债券上,才能为您提供足够的保障,因此不必在最坏的时候恐慌出售。即将退休者可以提前把一部分储蓄转入一个安全的储蓄账户,以支付退休后头一两年的开支。

而且,正如我们今年所经历的一样,即使碰到了最可怕的熊市,新的牛市也将指日可待。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

2020是艰难的一年。

全球疫情袭来,工厂倒闭、全行业濒临崩溃,许多美国民众的个人财务受到了持续的破坏。处于收入阶梯顶端的人通过各种投资组合,得到了股市上涨的红利提振,但处于阶梯另一端的人,他们的经历将截然不同:失业潮、高台垒筑的账单,都在等待着他们。

投资者们骤然跌入熊市,年底时却迎来了前所未有的强劲反弹。但是,无论身处何处,在处处皆“疯”的年度语境中,适当的个人理财规则都将变得尤为重要。以下将列出几个关于个人财务的提议。鸣谢《财富》定期撰稿人本•卡尔森。

信用卡债务,避之如病毒

个人理财的第一条准则即为,永远不要信用卡负债。信用卡的借贷利率高得惊人,支付这些沉重的债务无疑会恶化你的财产状况。如果你还得花长时间去还信用卡债务,那就别提投资的事了。

储蓄比投资更重要

“先支付自己”,这个提议相当简单,但很少有人能做到这一点。你所能做的最好的投资决定,就是为自己的财产设定一个高储蓄率。高储蓄率能够给你的生活带来相当大的“安全边际”:你无法控制利率水平、股市表现、衰退及熊市的到来,但储蓄率是你绝对能控制的东西。

检查你的借款情况

正如卡尔森在3月份所写的那样,当经济遭受严重打击时,仍有一线希望。如果你在12个月之前申请了一笔35万美元的抵押贷款,则可能会锁定利率为4.5%左右的30年期固定利率抵押贷款。这相当于每月要还大约1775美元(不包括税和保险)。而股市下跌后,30年期固定利率抵押贷款利率降低至近3.3%。同样是35万美元的抵押贷款,相当于每月还1530美元左右,每月节省了245美元。在经济放缓期间,这些省出来的资金在一定程度上提供了缓冲。可见,股市暴跌带来的好处是,贷款利率降低了,人们的负债能力提高了。

大型商品,购之有道

卡尔森曾说:“我知道我不应该这么武断,但每当我看到路上有5万多美元的SUV,或者是巨型麦克豪宅时,我脑海中闪现的第一反应就是,‘他们为退休攒了多少钱?’。”个人理财专家喜欢在拿铁咖啡等细枝末节上做文章,但你必须知道,在保持财务井然的过程中,那些“最大头”的购买行为其实最重要——无外乎两样东西,住房和交通。在这两样东西上花费过多,带来的后果可能将非常严重:因为它们代表着固定成本,且它们带来的伴随性花销也比大家想象的要多。

年轻投资者应该期待熊市

年轻投资者更应该期待熊市到来,因为熊市能让他们以更低的价格购买更多的股票。作为一个新手投资者,人力资本是你最大的资产。这意味着,你未来的收入预期应该能让你在一段时间内节省资金,并帮助您完成繁重的工作。

不要屈服于恐惧

熊市不是一个对资产配置进行全面调整的好时机,因为在熊市时,你的决策能力会受到情绪的影响。投资时,无论是全部押注还是全盘退出,都很危险。可能会有一两次走了运,但最终你所做出的,大部分还是“大繁荣前卖出、大萧条前买入”这样的操作。有四种抛售的情形,是卡尔森所赞同的:当你需要“再平衡”的时候,当你需要投资组合多样化的时候,当你的投资观点被证误的时候,以及当你已经“赢了这场游戏”,准备退出的时候。

快退休了,宜保守

退休之初,熊市可能比牛市更具挑战性,但有一些方法可以让你为最近可能遭受到的挫败做好准备,而且毫无疑问,这种情形还会再次降临。至少要花三年的时间将资金投入到优质债券上,才能为您提供足够的保障,因此不必在最坏的时候恐慌出售。即将退休者可以提前把一部分储蓄转入一个安全的储蓄账户,以支付退休后头一两年的开支。

而且,正如我们今年所经历的一样,即使碰到了最可怕的熊市,新的牛市也将指日可待。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

It has been a tough year.

Yes, there was a global pandemic, but the economic fallout from shutdowns and entire industries collapsing has wreaked continual havoc on the personal finances of many Americans. Though those at the upper end of the income ladder may have seen their portfolios buoyed by a rising stock market, those on the opposite end have had a very different experience, which may have included unemployment and trouble paying bills.

All investors sweated through a record-fast dive into a bear market, yet enjoyed an unbelievably strong rally to end the year. But wherever you found yourself on the spectrum, there were some personal finance rules that became especially important during this wild year. Here are a few that stood out, thanks to regular Fortune contributor Ben Carlson.

Avoid credit card debt like the plague

The first rule of personal finance is to never carry a credit card balance. Credit card borrowing rates are egregiously high and paying those rates is an easy way to negatively compound your net worth. If you carry credit card debt for a prolonged period of time, you’re not ready to invest your money in the markets.

Saving is more important than investing

Pay yourself first is such simple advice, but so few people do this. The best investment decision you can make is setting a high savings rate because it gives you a huge margin of safety in life. You have no control over the level of interest rates, stock market performance, or the timing of recessions and bear markets, but you can control your savings rate.

Check your borrowing

As Carlson wrote in March, when the economy takes a beating there can be some silver linings. If you took out a $350,000 mortgage 12 months earlier, you likely locked in a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at around 4.5%. That equates to a monthly payment of roughly $1,775 (ignoring taxes and insurance). Then 30-year fixed-rate mortgages moved closer to 3.3%. On that same $350,000 mortgage, that works out to a monthly payment of around $1,530, a savings of $245 a month. That extra money can provide a cushion during a potential economic slowdown. The one bright spot from the crashing stock market is interest rates have made borrowing more affordable.

Get the big purchases right

As Carlson puts it, “I know I shouldn’t be so judgmental, but whenever I see $50K to $70K SUVs on the road or enormous McMansions the first thing that pops into my head is, ‘I wonder how much they have saved for retirement?’” Personal finance experts love to debate the minutiae of lattes, but the most important purchases in terms of keeping your finances in order will be the big ones—housing and transportation. Overextending yourself on these two purchases can be a killer because they represent fixed costs and come with more ancillary expenses than most people realize.

Young investors should look forward to bear markets

Young investors should pray for bear markets because it allows them to buy more shares at lower prices. Human capital is your biggest asset as a newbie investor, meaning your future earnings potential should enable you to save money over time and allow compounding to do the heavy lifting for you.

Don’t succumb to fear

A bear market is one of the worst times to completely overhaul your asset allocation because your decision-making ability will be clouded by your emotions. The all-in or all-out game is one of the most dangerous you can play when investing. Sure, you could luck out once or twice, but eventually you’re going to end up selling out before a huge boom or buying before a huge bust. The four times Carlson advocates selling: when you need to rebalance, when you need to diversify, when you’ve been proven wrong about an investment thesis, and when you’ve “won the game” and are ready to retire.

Near retirement, get conservative

A bear market at the outset of retirement can make things more challenging than a rip-roaring bull market, but there are ways to prepare yourself for the scenario that befell investors recently—and no doubt will again. A minimum of at least three years’ worth of spending cash in high-quality bonds or cash would give you enough coverage so you don’t have to panic-sell stocks at the worst time. Those approaching retirement could at a minimum begin funneling some of their savings in their later years into a safe savings account to cover their first year or two of expenses in retirement.

And, as we surely saw in 2020, even in the scariest bear market, a new bull market may be right around the corner.

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