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美国大选引起华尔街蝴蝶效应

美国大选引起华尔街蝴蝶效应

ANNE SRADERS 2020年11月03日
专家认为,美国股市最近几天不会风平浪静。

请做好准备,投资者们:这几天可能非常难熬。

嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)交易与衍生品业务副总裁兰迪•弗雷德里克表示,标普500指数“进入回调区间并不意外。”标普500指数比之前9月2日的最高点回调10%,需要下跌至3,222点。周五,该指数收于3,269.96点,下跌1.2%,约比回调区间高出1.4%。

在11月3日美国大选日之前,各个市场确实经历了动荡的一周:道指本周下跌6.5%(标普500指数下跌5.6%),美国股市经历了自3月疫情带来的阵痛以来的单周最大跌幅。

嘉信理财的弗雷德里克表示,直到最近几周,市场还一直认为大选不会陷入白热化,但现在有些投资者似乎相信两位候选人的竞争会变得更加激烈。他表示,他从市场上相互冲突的观点中看到了各种各样的信号,市场上涨或下跌都有可能发生。

他告诉《财富》杂志:“我所关注的指标所表现出的趋势杂乱无章。我不记得上一次出现如此严重的分歧是在什么时候。有些指标表现出非常强烈的看涨迹象,有些则强烈看跌,有些指标出现了通常只有在预期会发生剧烈波动的时候才有的表现。在这种混乱的情况下,你只能说市场肯定会出现波动,只是我们不知道会朝哪个方向波动。”

未来几天,投资者有哪一点是可以确信的?弗雷德里克表示:“市场不会风平浪静,不起波澜。”

弗雷德里克等策略师正在密切关注期权和波动率指标(又称恐慌指标),他发现,对于波动率指标的公开利率看跌/看涨期权比率周五达到了3月以来的最高水平。然而,他指出指数期权(通常显示更多机构活动)可能意味着当前存在针对下行风险的对冲交易。

现在距离投票日临近,投资者坐立不安,而且有市场观察家正在尝试预测未来的走势:LPL公司的瑞恩•德特里克在周四指出,市场在大选前六天内下跌超过3%的情况只出现过两次(比如标普500指数和道指在周四的表现),而且两次选举的结果都是现任总统落选。

除此之外,在苹果(Apple)和Facebook等公司公布了规模庞大的收益之后,科技股在上周五的表现却令人失望,导致以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数当天下跌近2.5%。

过去一两周,美股市场整体上变得更加焦虑,原因包括在大选之前刺激政策可能以失败告终,另外美国和全世界的新冠病例持续增加依旧令人不安,引发了进一步增加限制措施的担忧(有些国家已经开始了新一轮封锁)。

弗雷德里克表示,事实上,如果没有大选之前最后一刻的恐慌,本周新冠病例的增加一直是“市场下行波动最大的刺激因素。”

LPL公司的杰夫•布赫宾德等策略师依旧认为,只要大选结束并明确了获胜者,市场会出现反弹。他告诉《财富》杂志:“无论是拜登还是特朗普,我们认为只要有了确定的结果对市场都有帮助。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

请做好准备,投资者们:这几天可能非常难熬。

嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)交易与衍生品业务副总裁兰迪•弗雷德里克表示,标普500指数“进入回调区间并不意外。”标普500指数比之前9月2日的最高点回调10%,需要下跌至3,222点。周五,该指数收于3,269.96点,下跌1.2%,约比回调区间高出1.4%。

在11月3日美国大选日之前,各个市场确实经历了动荡的一周:道指本周下跌6.5%(标普500指数下跌5.6%),美国股市经历了自3月疫情带来的阵痛以来的单周最大跌幅。

嘉信理财的弗雷德里克表示,直到最近几周,市场还一直认为大选不会陷入白热化,但现在有些投资者似乎相信两位候选人的竞争会变得更加激烈。他表示,他从市场上相互冲突的观点中看到了各种各样的信号,市场上涨或下跌都有可能发生。

他告诉《财富》杂志:“我所关注的指标所表现出的趋势杂乱无章。我不记得上一次出现如此严重的分歧是在什么时候。有些指标表现出非常强烈的看涨迹象,有些则强烈看跌,有些指标出现了通常只有在预期会发生剧烈波动的时候才有的表现。在这种混乱的情况下,你只能说市场肯定会出现波动,只是我们不知道会朝哪个方向波动。”

未来几天,投资者有哪一点是可以确信的?弗雷德里克表示:“市场不会风平浪静,不起波澜。”

弗雷德里克等策略师正在密切关注期权和波动率指标(又称恐慌指标),他发现,对于波动率指标的公开利率看跌/看涨期权比率周五达到了3月以来的最高水平。然而,他指出指数期权(通常显示更多机构活动)可能意味着当前存在针对下行风险的对冲交易。

现在距离投票日临近,投资者坐立不安,而且有市场观察家正在尝试预测未来的走势:LPL公司的瑞恩•德特里克在周四指出,市场在大选前六天内下跌超过3%的情况只出现过两次(比如标普500指数和道指在周四的表现),而且两次选举的结果都是现任总统落选。

除此之外,在苹果(Apple)和Facebook等公司公布了规模庞大的收益之后,科技股在上周五的表现却令人失望,导致以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数当天下跌近2.5%。

过去一两周,美股市场整体上变得更加焦虑,原因包括在大选之前刺激政策可能以失败告终,另外美国和全世界的新冠病例持续增加依旧令人不安,引发了进一步增加限制措施的担忧(有些国家已经开始了新一轮封锁)。

弗雷德里克表示,事实上,如果没有大选之前最后一刻的恐慌,本周新冠病例的增加一直是“市场下行波动最大的刺激因素。”

LPL公司的杰夫•布赫宾德等策略师依旧认为,只要大选结束并明确了获胜者,市场会出现反弹。他告诉《财富》杂志:“无论是拜登还是特朗普,我们认为只要有了确定的结果对市场都有帮助。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Buckle up, investors: it might be a rough few days.

The S&P 500 "could easily dip into correction territory on Monday, it wouldn’t be surprising if that happened," says Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab's vice president of trading and derivatives. The S&P 500 would need to touch 3,222 points to register a 10% correction from its previous high on Sept. 2. On Friday, the index closed down 1.2% at 3,269.96, about 1.4% above correction territory.

To be sure, it's been a rocky week in the markets heading into Election Day on Nov. 3: With the Dow down 6.5% for the week (and S&P 500 down 5.6%), markets just booked their worst one-week drop since the throes of the pandemic back in March.

Up until recent weeks, markets had felt more comfortable that there wouldn't be a contested election, Schwab's Frederick suggests, but now, it looks as if some investors believe the race is tighter. With conflicting views in the markets, Frederick says he's seeing a mixed bag of signals, and there could be moves up or down.

"The indicators I follow are just all over the map, I can’t remember the last time there was such huge disagreement," he tells Fortune. "I’ve got some indicators showing me very strong bullish signs, I’ve got some showing me very strong bearish signs, and some that are showing things they typically don’t show unless there’s high volatility expected. When you get a mix like that, about all you can say is that we know there’s going to be movement, we just don’t know which direction."

The one thing investors can count on in the next few days? "Things are not going to be calm and lazy and quiet," suggests Frederick.

Strategists like Frederick are watching options and the VIX, or fear gauge, noting that the open interest put/call ratio for the VIX was at its highest level since March on Friday. However, he notes index options (which typically show more institutional activity) might be signaling some hedging for the downside going on.

To be sure, with the election a mere two trading days away, investors are antsy, and some market observers are trying to read the tea leaves: Only twice have markets shed more than 3% in a day within six days of an election (as the S&P 500 and Dow both did on Thursday), and both times the incumbent lost, LPL's Ryan Detrick pointed out Thursday.

Add to that a disappointing day on Friday for tech stocks following big earnings from the likes of Apple and Facebook, which dragged the tech-heavy Nasdaq nearly 2.5% lower on Friday.

Markets overall have become increasingly anxious in the past week or two as talks of a stimulus deal before the election fizzled out, and more concerning still, cases of the coronavirus in the U.S. and worldwide continue to rise, sparking fears of further restrictions (some countries have already begun another round of lockdowns).

Indeed, absent last-minute jitters over the election, the uptick in the virus cases this week has been "the biggest catalyst for the downside moves," says Frederick.

Still, strategists like LPL's Jeff Buchbinder argue we'll see a rally after election once a clear winner is named—"Whether it’s Biden or Trump, we think that clarity will help," he tells Fortune.

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