科技股行情消退，散户期权交易者又将以眼泪告终？
贝恩·艾费特是期权交易领域的专家。期权交易较为复杂，涉及计算德尔塔值、伽玛值和其他各种奇奇怪怪的变量，以助预测价格走势。2020年，艾费特注意到有大量业余爱好者涌入他所专注的这一细分金融领域，而上一次看到这类现象已经是二十多年前的事了。
艾费特说：“上一次散户投资者在期权市场如此活跃、如此高歌猛进已经是上世纪90年代的事了。如今许多步入中老年的硅谷人都记起那个时代。你的专利律师说不定在上世纪90年代就做过期权交易。”
与当前的热潮一样，上世纪90年代的散户期权交易热也是由科技股大涨所催生的。艾费特和其他资深期权交易员认为，与上一波期权热一样，这一波也将以散户们的眼泪告终，因为大多数新人并不理解金融衍生品市场的真正运作原理。
新玩家，古老的市场
要理解散户投资者当前对期权的狂热以及他们为何定会以大亏收场，从更广泛的角度审视期权市场会有帮助。当然，期权并不是什么新发明。它们自圣经时代以来就一直存在，它们的用途很容易理解：它们是一种合约，锁定了将来以固定价格买卖给定资产的权利，如果你的业务依赖于粮食或燃料等价格波动剧烈的大宗商品，期权是非常有用的。
这就是为什么航空公司长期以来都会使用认沽期权和看涨期权（以特定价格进行买卖的权利）来对冲航空燃油价格波动的原因。同样，即便黄金价格上下波动，黄金生产商都可以使用此类合约实现可预测的收入流。
由于期权合约本身就具有价值（例如，当苹果公司的股票市价达到115美元时，你手中的看涨期权或许可以让你以100美元的价格买入），它们也催生了一个投机市场。
交易员艾费特说，在两位学者创建了布莱克—舒尔斯模型（Black-Scholes Model）后，有助于期权定价的公式从此诞生，进而推动了投机性期权交易在上世纪70年代的兴起。艾费特创立了一家专门从事金融衍生品业务的公司QVR。
尽管复杂，但业余投资者在牛市期间已经迅速玩转期权，期权成为他们眼中押注特定个股上涨的一种工具。这一幕在上世纪90年代末科技股泡沫破灭之前也发生过，当时投资者争先恐后地买进新科技股以及相关期权。
散户效应
今年，特斯拉公司和苹果公司等股票的看涨期权交易量也出现激增。彭博社援引的数据显示，在最近这一波期权热中，个人投资者占期权交易量的比例在特定的日子里可高达75%，而最近一周的看涨期权的销量较看跌期权高出2200万张。
散户的涌入使得今年的看涨期权交易量增长68%。美国银行的一份研究报告显示，由于购买期权的散户投资者推动特斯拉、Netflix和汉堡王等个股价格上涨，期权交易活动“可能影响了2020年泡沫”。
个人投资者最近对期权的狂热也导致整个期权市场出现新的、不同寻常的格局。
“散户交易与过去几年相比大有不同。”美国银行的期权交易部负责人凯伦·张说，“诸如Robinhood之类的免费交易平台贡献了许多散户交易量，其中围绕Zoom和Peloton等个股的期权交易尤为显著。”
凯伦·张说，由Robinhood涌入的散户还导致短期期权合约交易量的激增，因为很多散户投资者以周为单位押注股价走势。相比之下，机构交易者通常会购买能够在数月或更久之后行权的期权合约。
凯伦·张表示，散户大军也是导致看跌期权和看涨期权失衡的原因，而通常看跌期权与看涨期权的比率是更为平衡的。另一个后果是，随着个股价格的上涨，股价波动加剧，而这是一个不寻常的现象，因为股价上涨通常意味着投资者相信相关公司正在变得越来越成熟、收入确定性更高。
投资公司Ndvr的总裁罗尼·以色列洛夫也发现了期权市场的异常。他说，2020年个股的期权合约交易出现跃升。以色列洛夫著有多篇有关金融衍生品的学术论文。
通常情况下，股票期权合约大多是针对大盘的押注，例如针对道琼斯指数走势的押注。但最近科技股的飙升促使许多散户投资者大举买入针对个股的期权合约。
以色列洛夫补充说，在许多情况下，这些投资者可能已经深陷其中而不能自拔。
“不成熟的交易员将注意力集中在股价的走势上，然后买卖看跌期权或看涨期权。”他说，“而更难但更重要的任务是预测期权价格的走向。”
“最喧嚣、最泡沫化的家伙们”
散户期权交易激增的一个重要原因在于普通人从未可以像现在这样便捷地购买看跌期权和看涨期权，甚至连诸如“宽跨式期权”或“跨式期权”之类的复杂衍生策略都能够尝试。
散户交易员是否明白自己在做什么就是另一回事了。艾费特说，散户们可以在Robinhood平台上轻松进入期权市场，这让他“极为震惊”。他认为，业余爱好者能够做这种交易，前提是他们只是做着玩玩，而不是真把它当作积累财富的手段。艾费特的公司在交易界被称为“波动基金”（volat fund）。
“只要你的支出符合自己的娱乐预算就可以了。每年在Robinhood上亏5000美元与去拉斯维加斯赌场有什么区别吗？”他问道。
艾费特还指出了一种交易员中的亚文化：一些交易员做出看似不计后果的期权交易，然后在社交媒体平台上晒其收益（在许多情况下为巨亏）而成为“网红”。
“最喧嚣、最泡沫化的家伙们在Reddit和Discord平台上。”他说，“那些人完全疯了。就像一群自我毁灭型视频游戏玩家。”
艾费特所述的“最泡沫化的家伙们”还在推特上晒出他们的经历，其中有一位散户描述自己折戟特斯拉看涨期权后又买入了Peloton期权的经历：
“特斯拉看涨期权亏了一大把，再赶在业绩报告还没有公布前买一张大的Peloton期权……
— FiboNacho Libre (@FiboNachoLibre)，2020年9月2日
艾费特补充说，这些像神风敢死队一样的交易员并不代表大多数业余期权投资者。但是，即便是最勤奋的业余爱好者，只要交易时间一长，都可能会出现严重亏损。
“最低门槛”
原因在于购买期权与投资股票根本不一样。投资股票时，散户投资者可以通过研究一家公司并了解该行业的市场，然后持有自己的股票。
而要从看跌期权和看涨期权中赚钱，对公司的理解并没有那么重要，更为重要的是对诸如德尔塔值（期权价格相对于正股价格的走势）或伽马值（德尔塔值变化率指标）等因素进行分析。
这样的计算分析需要强大的数学技能，但这还仅仅是开始。艾费特说，对期权交易而言，精通数学只是“最低门槛”。在他看来，期权交易是一门里里外外都得精通吃透的技艺。
Ndvr的以色列洛夫对期权交易也持有类似看法。他指出，大多数专业交易员不仅具备深厚的数学技能和市场经验，而且还有定制的软件工具来衡量波动性。
当然，期权交易并不是散户投资者与高技能专业人士角逐的唯一金融领域。甚至普通的股票交易也吸引了大批数学高手炮制自认为可以击败市场的算法。
不同之处在于，期权交易具有更为悬殊的输赢面，其中散户在老手眼里都是等待被收割的韭菜。在最近一篇被广泛转发的有关Robinhood散户期权交易员的文章中，资深交易员兰詹·罗伊将他们称为整个行业的“肉汤”。以色列洛夫提出了同样的观点，尽管更加委婉一些。
“期权是一个零和市场。每赚取一美元，就有人会亏钱。”他说，“如果要胜出，你需要经验或先进工具方面的优势。而散户的竞争对手正是那些拥有此类优势的专业选手。”(财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
贝恩·艾费特是期权交易领域的专家。期权交易较为复杂，涉及计算德尔塔值、伽玛值和其他各种奇奇怪怪的变量，以助预测价格走势。2020年，艾费特注意到有大量业余爱好者涌入他所专注的这一细分金融领域，而上一次看到这类现象已经是二十多年前的事了。
艾费特说：“上一次散户投资者在期权市场如此活跃、如此高歌猛进已经是上世纪90年代的事了。如今许多步入中老年的硅谷人都记起那个时代。你的专利律师说不定在上世纪90年代就做过期权交易。”
与当前的热潮一样，上世纪90年代的散户期权交易热也是由科技股大涨所催生的。艾费特和其他资深期权交易员认为，与上一波期权热一样，这一波也将以散户们的眼泪告终，因为大多数新人并不理解金融衍生品市场的真正运作原理。
新玩家，古老的市场
要理解散户投资者当前对期权的狂热以及他们为何定会以大亏收场，从更广泛的角度审视期权市场会有帮助。当然，期权并不是什么新发明。它们自圣经时代以来就一直存在，它们的用途很容易理解：它们是一种合约，锁定了将来以固定价格买卖给定资产的权利，如果你的业务依赖于粮食或燃料等价格波动剧烈的大宗商品，期权是非常有用的。
这就是为什么航空公司长期以来都会使用认沽期权和看涨期权（以特定价格进行买卖的权利）来对冲航空燃油价格波动的原因。同样，即便黄金价格上下波动，黄金生产商都可以使用此类合约实现可预测的收入流。
由于期权合约本身就具有价值（例如，当苹果公司的股票市价达到115美元时，你手中的看涨期权或许可以让你以100美元的价格买入），它们也催生了一个投机市场。
交易员艾费特说，在两位学者创建了布莱克—舒尔斯模型（Black-Scholes Model）后，有助于期权定价的公式从此诞生，进而推动了投机性期权交易在上世纪70年代的兴起。艾费特创立了一家专门从事金融衍生品业务的公司QVR。
尽管复杂，但业余投资者在牛市期间已经迅速玩转期权，期权成为他们眼中押注特定个股上涨的一种工具。这一幕在上世纪90年代末科技股泡沫破灭之前也发生过，当时投资者争先恐后地买进新科技股以及相关期权。
散户效应
今年，特斯拉公司和苹果公司等股票的看涨期权交易量也出现激增。彭博社援引的数据显示，在最近这一波期权热中，个人投资者占期权交易量的比例在特定的日子里可高达75%，而最近一周的看涨期权的销量较看跌期权高出2200万张。
散户的涌入使得今年的看涨期权交易量增长68%。美国银行的一份研究报告显示，由于购买期权的散户投资者推动特斯拉、Netflix和汉堡王等个股价格上涨，期权交易活动“可能影响了2020年泡沫”。
个人投资者最近对期权的狂热也导致整个期权市场出现新的、不同寻常的格局。
“散户交易与过去几年相比大有不同。”美国银行的期权交易部负责人凯伦·张说，“诸如Robinhood之类的免费交易平台贡献了许多散户交易量，其中围绕Zoom和Peloton等个股的期权交易尤为显著。”
凯伦·张说，由Robinhood涌入的散户还导致短期期权合约交易量的激增，因为很多散户投资者以周为单位押注股价走势。相比之下，机构交易者通常会购买能够在数月或更久之后行权的期权合约。
凯伦·张表示，散户大军也是导致看跌期权和看涨期权失衡的原因，而通常看跌期权与看涨期权的比率是更为平衡的。另一个后果是，随着个股价格的上涨，股价波动加剧，而这是一个不寻常的现象，因为股价上涨通常意味着投资者相信相关公司正在变得越来越成熟、收入确定性更高。
投资公司Ndvr的总裁罗尼·以色列洛夫也发现了期权市场的异常。他说，2020年个股的期权合约交易出现跃升。以色列洛夫著有多篇有关金融衍生品的学术论文。
通常情况下，股票期权合约大多是针对大盘的押注，例如针对道琼斯指数走势的押注。但最近科技股的飙升促使许多散户投资者大举买入针对个股的期权合约。
以色列洛夫补充说，在许多情况下，这些投资者可能已经深陷其中而不能自拔。
“不成熟的交易员将注意力集中在股价的走势上，然后买卖看跌期权或看涨期权。”他说，“而更难但更重要的任务是预测期权价格的走向。”
“最喧嚣、最泡沫化的家伙们”
散户期权交易激增的一个重要原因在于普通人从未可以像现在这样便捷地购买看跌期权和看涨期权，甚至连诸如“宽跨式期权”或“跨式期权”之类的复杂衍生策略都能够尝试。
散户交易员是否明白自己在做什么就是另一回事了。艾费特说，散户们可以在Robinhood平台上轻松进入期权市场，这让他“极为震惊”。他认为，业余爱好者能够做这种交易，前提是他们只是做着玩玩，而不是真把它当作积累财富的手段。艾费特的公司在交易界被称为“波动基金”（volat fund）。
“只要你的支出符合自己的娱乐预算就可以了。每年在Robinhood上亏5000美元与去拉斯维加斯赌场有什么区别吗？”他问道。
艾费特还指出了一种交易员中的亚文化：一些交易员做出看似不计后果的期权交易，然后在社交媒体平台上晒其收益（在许多情况下为巨亏）而成为“网红”。
“最喧嚣、最泡沫化的家伙们在Reddit和Discord平台上。”他说，“那些人完全疯了。就像一群自我毁灭型视频游戏玩家。”
艾费特所述的“最泡沫化的家伙们”还在推特上晒出他们的经历，其中有一位散户描述自己折戟特斯拉看涨期权后又买入了Peloton期权的经历：
“特斯拉看涨期权亏了一大把，再赶在业绩报告还没有公布前买一张大的Peloton期权……
— FiboNacho Libre (@FiboNachoLibre)，2020年9月2日
艾费特补充说，这些像神风敢死队一样的交易员并不代表大多数业余期权投资者。但是，即便是最勤奋的业余爱好者，只要交易时间一长，都可能会出现严重亏损。
“最低门槛”
原因在于购买期权与投资股票根本不一样。投资股票时，散户投资者可以通过研究一家公司并了解该行业的市场，然后持有自己的股票。
而要从看跌期权和看涨期权中赚钱，对公司的理解并没有那么重要，更为重要的是对诸如德尔塔值（期权价格相对于正股价格的走势）或伽马值（德尔塔值变化率指标）等因素进行分析。
这样的计算分析需要强大的数学技能，但这还仅仅是开始。艾费特说，对期权交易而言，精通数学只是“最低门槛”。在他看来，期权交易是一门里里外外都得精通吃透的技艺。
Ndvr的以色列洛夫对期权交易也持有类似看法。他指出，大多数专业交易员不仅具备深厚的数学技能和市场经验，而且还有定制的软件工具来衡量波动性。
当然，期权交易并不是散户投资者与高技能专业人士角逐的唯一金融领域。甚至普通的股票交易也吸引了大批数学高手炮制自认为可以击败市场的算法。
不同之处在于，期权交易具有更为悬殊的输赢面，其中散户在老手眼里都是等待被收割的韭菜。在最近一篇被广泛转发的有关Robinhood散户期权交易员的文章中，资深交易员兰詹·罗伊将他们称为整个行业的“肉汤”。以色列洛夫提出了同样的观点，尽管更加委婉一些。
“期权是一个零和市场。每赚取一美元，就有人会亏钱。”他说，“如果要胜出，你需要经验或先进工具方面的优势。而散户的竞争对手正是那些拥有此类优势的专业选手。”(财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
Benn Eifert is an expert in options trading, a complicated field that involves calculating delta, gamma and other exotic variables that help predict price movements. In 2020, he's watched a flood of amateurs rush into his niche of finance—a phenomenon he last saw more than two decades ago.
"The '90s were the last time retail investors were active and aggressive like this. Lots of older folks in Silicon Valley recall that time. Talk to your patent lawyer, and he was probably trading options in the '90s," says Eifert.
Like the current wave, the 1990s spike in amateurs trading options was spurred by a huge run-up in the price of tech stocks. And like that last wave, this one will end in tears, according to Eifert and other veteran options traders, who say most newbies don't understand how derivates markets really work.
New players, ancient market
To understand the current mania among retail investors—and why they're poised to take a bath—it's helpful to look at the options market through a broader lens. Options are not a recent invention, of course. They've been around since biblical times, and their purpose is easy to grasp: They are a contract that locks in the right to buy or sell a given asset at a fixed price in the future, which is very useful if your business relies on a volatile commodity like grain or fuel.
That's why the airline industry has long used options contracts, in the form of puts and calls (the right to sell and buy at a given price), to hedge against swings in commodity prices. Likewise, gold producers use such contracts to create a predictable revenue stream even as the price of the yellow metal bounces up and down.
Since options contracts can be valuable in their own right—think of a call option that gives you the right to buy a share of Apple at $100 when the market price is $115—they've given rise to an industry of speculators as well.
The trader Eifert, who founded a firm called QVR that specializes in derivatives, says speculative options trading took off in the 1970s after two academics created the Black-Scholes model, which offers a formula to help price them.
Despite their complexity, amateur investors have been quick to glom onto options during bull markets, viewing them as a way to bet that a given stock will go higher. That's what happened prior to the dot.com bust of the late 1990s, when investors rushed to snap up shares of new tech companies—and also rushed to acquire options to buy and sell those shares.
The Robinhood effect
A similar rush has taken place this year as trading in calls of firms like Tesla and Apple has surged. The recent wave has seen individual investors account for as much of 75% of options trades on a given day, while sales of call contracts exceeded puts by 22 million in a recent week, according to figures cited by Bloomberg.
This influx of small traders has helped spur a 68% increase in call-options volume activity this year. According to a research note from Bank of America, this activity has "likely ... influenced the 2020 bubble" as retail traders buy options helped drive up the price of Tesla and stocks like Netflix and Burger King.
The recent options mania among individual investors has also led to new and unusual patterns in the overall options market.
"On the retail front, it's been very different than the past few years," says Karen Chang who heads an options trading desk at Bank of America. "Much of the retail volume is coming out of platforms like Robinhood where users can trade for free, especially in stocks like Zoom and Peloton."
The Robinhood influx, says Chang, has also led to a surge in short-dated options contracts as amateur investors seek to make bets on weekly stock movements. By contrast, institutional traders typically buy options that can be exercised over several months or more.
The army of amateurs also accounts for the imbalance in put and call options, says Chang, who says the ratio is typically more balanced. Another consequence has been individual stocks becoming more volatile as their price increases—an unusual phenomenon since higher stock prices normally imply that investors believe a company is becoming more mature and with more predictable revenue streams.
Chang isn't the only one to encounter unusual patterns in the options market. Roni Israelov, the President of investment firm Ndvr and the author of several academic papers on derivatives, says 2020 has brought a big uptick in options contracts for individual stocks.
Ordinarily, the bulk of option contracts for equities consists of wagers on the broader markets—bets on which way the Dow Jones will move, for instance. But the recent run-up in tech stocks has led to a stampede of small investors buying contracts for single stocks.
In many cases, Israelov adds, these investors may be in over their heads.
"Unsophisticated traders focus on where the stock price is headed, and then buy or sell a put or call," he says. "The harder, but more pertinent task is to forecast where the option price is headed."
"The loudest and frothiest element"
A big reason for the surge in retail options trading is that it's never been easier for the average person to buy puts and calls, or to attempt complex derivative strategies such as "strangles" or "straddles."
Whether such traders know what they're doing is another matter. Eifert, whose firm is known in trading circles as a "vol fund" (short for volatility) says the ease with which Robinhood traders can enter the options world is "totally shocking" to him. He believes that such trading is fine among amateurs—so long as they are doing it for fun rather than a way to build wealth.
"It's fine as long as your spending is commensurate with your entertainment budget. Is there any difference between losing $5,000 a year on Robinhood or going to Vegas?" he asks.
Eifert also points to a sub-culture of traders who have gained infamy for engaging in seemingly reckless options trading, and then sharing their gains—or in many cases huge losses—on social media platforms.
"The loudest and frothiest element is on Reddit and Discord," he says. "Those people are totally crazy. It's like a self-destructive video game community."
The "frothiest element" Eifert describes have also been posting their experiences to Twitter, including one amateur who described buying Peloton options after losing money on a Tesla call:
Took a hit on TSLA call, and pulled the trigger on 1 sizable PTON option pre-earnings... #day3 #gamble #OptionsTrading #Robinhood pic.twitter.com/yXVR7wnSoE
— FiboNacho Libre (@FiboNachoLibre) September 2, 2020
Eifert adds these kamikaze-like traders are not representative of most amateur options investors. Nonetheless, even the most diligent amateur risks taking a beating if they trade for any length of time.
"Table stakes"
The reason is that buying options is fundamentally different from investing in stocks, where retail investors can hold their own by researching a company and understanding a market of the sector.
In the case of options, making money from puts and calls relies less on understanding a company than it does on parsing factors like delta—the way an options price moves against an underlying stock price—or gamma, which measures the rate of change in delta.
Such calculations require strong math skills, but that's just the beginning. Eifert says a high proficiency in math is merely "table stakes" when it comes to trading options, which he calls a "piece of craftsmanship from front to back."
He's not the only who views options trading this way. Israelov of Ndvr notes that most professional traders have not only math skills and market experience, but bespoke software tools to gauge volatility.
Options trading, of course, isn't the only sector of finance where retail investors are competing against highly skilled pros. Even plain vanilla stock buying attracts legions of math whizzes deploying algorithms they believe will beat the market.
The difference is that options trading has a starker win-lose dynamic, one where amateurs are chum for the veterans. In a recent widely-shared essay about those dabbling in Robinhood options, veteran trader Ranjan Roy referred to them as "the gravy" for the rest of the industry. Israelov makes the same point, though more diplomatically.
"Options are a zero sum market. For every dollar made, there’s a loss," he says. "If you want to come out ahead, you need an edge from experience or a sophisticated set of tools. That's who retail investors are competing against."
