美国科技股快速回调，未来会怎么走？
三天跌幅超过10%！以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数在本周出现了快速调整。高价科技股的投资者可能要问：“现在怎么办”
看来起又要反弹了？
9月9日，纳指收盘大涨2.7%。标普500和道琼斯指数也出现了类似的反弹，分别上涨了2%和1.6%。
股市近期的调整明显是一个警告：科技股太热，上涨太快，一些头部企业的估值过高，包括苹果（Apple）、亚马逊（Amazon）、微软（Microsoft）、Alphabet和特斯拉（Tesla）。
嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）负责交易和衍生品的副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克认为，近期科技股的回调不难理解。“毫无疑问，股票实在太贵了。”
但这并不意味着，弗雷德里克这样的专业人士认为，投资者已经对这些昂贵的股票失去了兴起。弗里德里克指出，即便以纳指此次调整的最低点看，也不过是抹去了大约一个月来的涨幅，而纳指自今年3月以来仍然上涨了60%。他说：“现在完全不必惊慌。来个深蹲，是为了跳得更高。调整让股票更便宜，我觉得科技股还有的涨呢。”
确实，投资者在9月9日似乎又着急买回科技股。历史上，投资者在纳指快速调整后的6到12个月内的收益基本为正。不过，近几个月对于科技股一直存在很大争议，它们估值过高，其真实的基本面并不支持它们涨这么快。但是，LPL Financial的分析师杰夫·布奇宾德坚定认为，科技股“整体估值基本合理”。论据之一是，大环境（如居家办公）有利于增长型科技股，他对《财富》杂志说：“经济复苏超预期，公司利润反弹超预期，我们认为，包括科技股在内的各种股票都会比现在涨得更高。”
但是，嘉信理财的弗雷德里克警告，反弹才刚开始。他一直推荐，股票大跌过后，要等连续两日反弹再介入。但他又承认：“现在的科技股比较过去要便宜，肯定比四五天之前更有吸引力。”
与此同时，Independent Advisor Alliances的首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利在9月9日的一份通知中说：“如果投资者的脑子里只想着抄底，低点就不会来，除非他们承受了严重的亏损。然后牛市才可能继续。”（财富中文网）
译者：MS
三天跌幅超过10%！以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数在本周出现了快速调整。高价科技股的投资者可能要问：“现在怎么办”
看来起又要反弹了？
9月9日，纳指收盘大涨2.7%。标普500和道琼斯指数也出现了类似的反弹，分别上涨了2%和1.6%。
股市近期的调整明显是一个警告：科技股太热，上涨太快，一些头部企业的估值过高，包括苹果（Apple）、亚马逊（Amazon）、微软（Microsoft）、Alphabet和特斯拉（Tesla）。
嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）负责交易和衍生品的副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克认为，近期科技股的回调不难理解。“毫无疑问，股票实在太贵了。”
但这并不意味着，弗雷德里克这样的专业人士认为，投资者已经对这些昂贵的股票失去了兴起。弗里德里克指出，即便以纳指此次调整的最低点看，也不过是抹去了大约一个月来的涨幅，而纳指自今年3月以来仍然上涨了60%。他说：“现在完全不必惊慌。来个深蹲，是为了跳得更高。调整让股票更便宜，我觉得科技股还有的涨呢。”
确实，投资者在9月9日似乎又着急买回科技股。历史上，投资者在纳指快速调整后的6到12个月内的收益基本为正。不过，近几个月对于科技股一直存在很大争议，它们估值过高，其真实的基本面并不支持它们涨这么快。但是，LPL Financial的分析师杰夫·布奇宾德坚定认为，科技股“整体估值基本合理”。论据之一是，大环境（如居家办公）有利于增长型科技股，他对《财富》杂志说：“经济复苏超预期，公司利润反弹超预期，我们认为，包括科技股在内的各种股票都会比现在涨得更高。”
但是，嘉信理财的弗雷德里克警告，反弹才刚开始。他一直推荐，股票大跌过后，要等连续两日反弹再介入。但他又承认：“现在的科技股比较过去要便宜，肯定比四五天之前更有吸引力。”
与此同时，Independent Advisor Alliances的首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利在9月9日的一份通知中说：“如果投资者的脑子里只想着抄底，低点就不会来，除非他们承受了严重的亏损。然后牛市才可能继续。”（财富中文网）
译者：MS
Three days, down over 10%. With the tech-heavy Nasdaq having posted its fastest retreat from a high into a correction this week, investors in the high-flying tech stocks may well be thinking: What now?
Well, right back up it seems.
The Nasdaq closed 2.7% higher on September 9, while the S&P 500 and Dow posted similar rebounds, up 2% and 1.6% respectively.
If one thing is clear, the recent pullback was a flashing warning sign: tech had gotten too overheated, too fast. And valuations for some of the top names (think: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla) had become extreme.
Indeed, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab's vice president of trading and derivatives, argues the latest tech correction can largely be chalked up to, "without a doubt, the fact that things had gotten very, very expensive."
But that doesn't mean those like Frederick think investors have become disenchanted with the pricey group of stocks. Even with the Nasdaq's latest correction, the benchmark only shed roughly a month's worth of gains, Frederick points out, and is still up over 60% from March. "That is not anything to be panicked about, it’s just reality that when things go for the moonshot, they're going to come back down to earth at some point," he says. "That does make things more affordable, [and] I think tech still has room to run."
To wit, buyers appeared eager to jump back into tech names September 9. And historically, the returns for the Nasdaq following a rapid correction are mostly positive six to 12 months out.
Still, the big argument against tech stocks in recent months (that they've gotten far too expensive without the true fundamental growth to back them up) remains formidable. But others like LPL Financial's Jeff Buchbinder actually believe tech stocks are "probably fairly valued overall." Part of that argument is that the growthy tech stocks are well-positioned in this environment (read: work from home), and that "this recovery has exceeded our expectations, the earnings rebound has exceeded our expectations, and we think stocks including tech should end the year higher than where it is right now," Buchbinder tells Fortune.
However, Schwab's Frederick cautions it's only been one day of a bounce, and he always recommends waiting for two "up" days in the markets following a selloff to jump back in. But "frankly, now [the tech stocks are] all more affordable than they were, of course they’re going to be even more attractive than they were four, five days ago," he argues.
Meanwhile, Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliances, wrote in a note on September 9 that "as long as the buy-the-dips mentality remains foremost in investors’ minds—and it will unless they are severely punished for it—then the bull market is likely to continue."
