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为何美国各州经济恢复情况差别巨大?

为何美国各州经济恢复情况差别巨大?

Lance Lambert, Nicolas Rapp 2020年08月13日
到目前为止,美国各州的恢复水平不尽相同,并且差异很大。

各大企业在疫情伊始的裁员速度可谓创美国历史之最,失业率也从2月的3.5%飙升至4月的14.7%。然而,随着各州重启经济,该数字在6月已经降至11.1%。

尽管失业率的降低意味着经济的好转,但事实也清楚地摆在人们眼前,美国并没有看到期盼已久的V形恢复轨迹。

如果我们继续深挖的话,也会明显看到,美国各州的恢复水平不尽相同,并且差异很大。美国劳工统计局称,肯塔基州按季节调整后的失业率从2月的4.2%升至4月的16.6%。但随着州长安德鲁·贝舍尔重启该州的经济,其6月的失业率降至4.3%,达到了全国最低的水平,属于教科书式的V形恢复。

肯塔基州迅速的恢复甚至让该州官员感到震惊。5月,该州预计会出现4.57亿美元的公共基金缺口,然而该州在6月出现了1.775亿美元的盈余。部分原因在于肯塔基州对受疫情严重影响的休闲和酒店行业的依赖度并不高。

其他一些以农业为主的州,例如犹他州(5.1%)、爱达荷州(5.6%)和北达科他州(6.1%)亦出现了V形经济恢复模式下才有的失业率。

然而,有一些州鲜有恢复甚至是没有恢复。新泽西州和马萨诸塞州4月的失业率则分别达到了16.3%和16.2%。6月,这两个州的失业率分别为16.6%和17.4%,是全美失业率最高的两个州。纽约州6月的失业率为15.7%,排名第三。上述失业率水平与上个世纪30年代的经济大萧条时期相当,当时,全美平均失业率达到了17%。

像纽约州、新泽西州和马萨诸塞州这类位于美国东北部的州是早期疫情最为集中的地区,因此其经济的重启速度要慢得多。不过好消息在于,美国东北部并不像其他地区那样出现了新冠病例抬头的迹象。

尽管包括肯塔基州和犹他州在内的一些州出现了V形恢复,而且东北地区各州基本上处于停滞不前的状态,也有一些州处于两者之间。附近的内华达州就是个例子,由于其酒店和赌场停业,该州失业率在4月曾经飙升至30.1%。随着这些设施在今夏的重新开放,该州的失业率在6月降至15%。这个恢复速度很快,但与内华达2月2.6%的失业率相比依然相距甚远。

但很多专家预计美国的经济恢复将十分缓慢。世界大型企业联合会最近对美国首席执行官的调查显示,有42%预测经济将出现U形恢复,26%预计将出现可怕的L形, 23%预计将呈W形,也就是双低谷衰退,仅有9%的美国首席执行官预计其将呈现V形。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

各大企业在疫情伊始的裁员速度可谓创美国历史之最,失业率也从2月的3.5%飙升至4月的14.7%。然而,随着各州重启经济,该数字在6月已经降至11.1%。

尽管失业率的降低意味着经济的好转,但事实也清楚地摆在人们眼前,美国并没有看到期盼已久的V形恢复轨迹。

如果我们继续深挖的话,也会明显看到,美国各州的恢复水平不尽相同,并且差异很大。美国劳工统计局称,肯塔基州按季节调整后的失业率从2月的4.2%升至4月的16.6%。但随着州长安德鲁·贝舍尔重启该州的经济,其6月的失业率降至4.3%,达到了全国最低的水平,属于教科书式的V形恢复。

肯塔基州迅速的恢复甚至让该州官员感到震惊。5月,该州预计会出现4.57亿美元的公共基金缺口,然而该州在6月出现了1.775亿美元的盈余。部分原因在于肯塔基州对受疫情严重影响的休闲和酒店行业的依赖度并不高。

其他一些以农业为主的州,例如犹他州(5.1%)、爱达荷州(5.6%)和北达科他州(6.1%)亦出现了V形经济恢复模式下才有的失业率。

然而,有一些州鲜有恢复甚至是没有恢复。新泽西州和马萨诸塞州4月的失业率则分别达到了16.3%和16.2%。6月,这两个州的失业率分别为16.6%和17.4%,是全美失业率最高的两个州。纽约州6月的失业率为15.7%,排名第三。上述失业率水平与上个世纪30年代的经济大萧条时期相当,当时,全美平均失业率达到了17%。

像纽约州、新泽西州和马萨诸塞州这类位于美国东北部的州是早期疫情最为集中的地区,因此其经济的重启速度要慢得多。不过好消息在于,美国东北部并不像其他地区那样出现了新冠病例抬头的迹象。

尽管包括肯塔基州和犹他州在内的一些州出现了V形恢复,而且东北地区各州基本上处于停滞不前的状态,也有一些州处于两者之间。附近的内华达州就是个例子,由于其酒店和赌场停业,该州失业率在4月曾经飙升至30.1%。随着这些设施在今夏的重新开放,该州的失业率在6月降至15%。这个恢复速度很快,但与内华达2月2.6%的失业率相比依然相距甚远。

但很多专家预计美国的经济恢复将十分缓慢。世界大型企业联合会最近对美国首席执行官的调查显示,有42%预测经济将出现U形恢复,26%预计将出现可怕的L形, 23%预计将呈W形,也就是双低谷衰退,仅有9%的美国首席执行官预计其将呈现V形。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

Employers laid off employees at the fastest clip in U.S. history at the onset of the pandemic, with the unemployment rate soaring from 3.5% in February to 14.7% in April. But as states reopen, that rate had fallen to 11.1% by June.

While a dropping jobless rate points to an improving economy, it also makes it clear we aren't seeing the much-hoped-for V-shaped recovery—when an economy recovers nearly as fast as it contracted.

But dig a bit deeper and it's clear that not all recoveries are proceeding equally. They vary immensely by state. In Kentucky, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate soared from 4.2% in February to 16.6% in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But as Gov. Andrew Beshear reopened the Bluegrass State's economy, the jobless rate sunk to 4.3% by June—the lowest in the nation. That's a textbook V-shaped recovery.

The swift recovery in Kentucky even caught its state officials by surprise. In May the state projected a $457 million general fund shortfall; however, it ended the fiscal year in June with a $177.5 million surplus. It helped that Kentucky doesn't rely heavily on industries like leisure and hospitality that were decimated by the pandemic.

Other more rural states like Utah (5.1%), Idaho (5.6%), and North Dakota (6.1%) have jobless rates that also indicate V-shaped recoveries.

Then there are places that have seen little to no recovery. The jobless rate in New Jersey and Massachusetts were at 16.3% and 16.2%, respectively, in April. In June, the jobless rate was 16.6% in New Jersey and 17.4% in Massachusetts—the two highest rates in the nation. New York was the third highest at 15.7% in June. Those rates are on par with the Great Depression era, which saw an average of a 17% jobless rate during the 1930s.

Northeast states like New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts were among the early epicenters of the virus and are reopening their economies at much slower rates. On the flip side, the Northeast is not seeing COVID-19 cases spike like other regions.

While states like Kentucky and Utah see V-shaped recoveries, and Northeast states barely move, there are other places firmly in the middle. Look no further than Nevada, which saw its jobless rate soar to 30.1% in April as its hotels and casinos shuttered. As it reopened this summer, that jobless rate fell to 15% in June. That is a fast recovery but still a long way to go from Nevada's February jobless rate of 3.6%.

But many experts expect to see the rate of recovery in the U.S. slow. Among U.S. chief executive officers, 42% foresee a U-shaped recovery, 26% expect the dreaded L-shaped recovery, and 23% forecast a W-shaped recovery, or a double-dip recession, according to the Conference Board's most recent survey of CEOs. Only 9% of U.S. CEOs predict a V-shaped recovery.

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