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美国经济"V型反转"的希望彻底落空了

美国经济"V型反转"的希望彻底落空了

Lance Lambert 2020年07月08日
专家认为,美国经济出现V型反转的可能性为零,真正的风险是经济再次出现倒退和收缩。

5月,美国各州纷纷解封,消费者支出出现了创纪录增长,成百上千万人重新找到了工作。人们一度以为,美国经济已经度过“拐点”,即将迎来“V”字型复苏。

但不久之后,在已经开始复工复产的南部和西部各州,疫情出现迅速恶化。如今,得克萨斯州部分医院的ICU病房已经不堪重负,因此该州已经关闭了酒吧,并限制餐厅就餐人数。佛罗里达州关闭了海滩,并限制酒吧的酒水饮料销售,加州部分县也再次关闭了酒吧。

穆迪分析首席经济学家马克•赞迪表示:“我认为[出现‘V’字型复苏的]可能性为零。现在真正的风险是经济再次出现了倒退和收缩。”他说,疫情反弹让“V”字型复苏(即迅速下跌后大幅反弹)彻底成为泡影。

上周二,美国银行发布了一篇报告,标题是“从‘V’字型到‘L’型或‘W’型”。美国银行经济学家写道,疫情恶化的亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州、得克萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州和加利福尼亚州,占美国GDP的37%,这些州可能拖累全国经济增长。

报告继续写道:“除了几个明显的例外以外,经济重启似乎已经开启了最初的‘V’字型复苏……很可惜,重启的代价是疫情复发。我们认为,疫情达到最高峰时,近一半美国人会受到影响。美国经济一半在缓慢开放,另一半则在缓慢关闭,所以整体上会拉平经济的增长曲线。”

美国劳工统计局将在周五发布六月份的失业率数据,可以帮助我们理解六月份的复苏速度。赞迪告诉《财富》杂志,他预测失业率将从13.3%下降到11.5%。如果他的预测准确,这将是自4月份达到14.7%的最高峰之后,美国失业率连续第二个月下降。

2月份,美国失业率只有3.5%,为50年最低,但仅仅两个月时间,到4月份就猛涨到80年最高的14.7%。现在,美国经济大幅反弹的可能性越来越低。 (财富中文网)

译者:Biz

5月,美国各州纷纷解封,消费者支出出现了创纪录增长,成百上千万人重新找到了工作。人们一度以为,美国经济已经度过“拐点”,即将迎来“V”字型复苏。

但不久之后,在已经开始复工复产的南部和西部各州,疫情出现迅速恶化。如今,得克萨斯州部分医院的ICU病房已经不堪重负,因此该州已经关闭了酒吧,并限制餐厅就餐人数。佛罗里达州关闭了海滩,并限制酒吧的酒水饮料销售,加州部分县也再次关闭了酒吧。

穆迪分析首席经济学家马克•赞迪表示:“我认为[出现‘V’字型复苏的]可能性为零。现在真正的风险是经济再次出现了倒退和收缩。”他说,疫情反弹让“V”字型复苏(即迅速下跌后大幅反弹)彻底成为泡影。

上周二,美国银行发布了一篇报告,标题是“从‘V’字型到‘L’型或‘W’型”。美国银行经济学家写道,疫情恶化的亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州、得克萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州和加利福尼亚州,占美国GDP的37%,这些州可能拖累全国经济增长。

报告继续写道:“除了几个明显的例外以外,经济重启似乎已经开启了最初的‘V’字型复苏……很可惜,重启的代价是疫情复发。我们认为,疫情达到最高峰时,近一半美国人会受到影响。美国经济一半在缓慢开放,另一半则在缓慢关闭,所以整体上会拉平经济的增长曲线。”

美国劳工统计局将在周五发布六月份的失业率数据,可以帮助我们理解六月份的复苏速度。赞迪告诉《财富》杂志,他预测失业率将从13.3%下降到11.5%。如果他的预测准确,这将是自4月份达到14.7%的最高峰之后,美国失业率连续第二个月下降。

2月份,美国失业率只有3.5%,为50年最低,但仅仅两个月时间,到4月份就猛涨到80年最高的14.7%。现在,美国经济大幅反弹的可能性越来越低。 (财富中文网)

译者:Biz

As states eased lockdowns in May, consumer spending saw a record increase and millions were rehired. For a moment, it looked like the economy had turned a corner and a “V”-shaped recovery was within reach.

But that was before cases of the deadly virus soared throughout Southern and Western states that had begun to reopen. Now, Texas has closed bars and reduced restaurant occupancy as the state hits max ICU capacity in some hospitals. And Florida has closed some beaches and restricted alcohol sales in bars, and some California counties are also closing bars again.

"I'd say zero chance [of a “V”-shaped recovery]. The real risk now is we start backsliding and start contracting again," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The resurgence of the virus, he says, has eliminated the potential for a “V” (a steep drop followed by an equally sharp rebound).

On Tuesday, Bank of America put out a report with the headline "From a ‘V’ to an ‘L’ or ‘W.’” Arizona, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and California—where confirmed COVID-19 cases are surging—account for 37% of U.S. GDP and could pull down nationwide economic growth, the Bank of America economists wrote.

"With a few notable exceptions, the reopening seems to have triggered an initial “V”-shaped recovery... Unfortunately, the reopening has come at a cost: The virus is back," the report continued. "By the time the growth in the virus peaks, we assume roughly half of the country will be impacted. With half of the country slowly opening and half slowly closing, the economy could flatten out overall."

On Friday the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June unemployment rate—giving us a better understanding of the rate of recovery in June. Zandi told Fortune he projects the unemployment rate falling from 13.3% to 11.5%. If correct, it would mark the second consecutive month of a falling jobless rate after it peaked at 14.7% in April.

It took only two months for the jobless rate to go from a 50-year low of 3.5% in February to an 80-year high of 14.7% in April. But now, bouncing back sharply to make the other side of that “V” seems increasingly unlikely.

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