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V型、U型、钟摆型、对勾型…美国经济到底以什么轨迹复苏

V型、U型、钟摆型、对勾型…美国经济到底以什么轨迹复苏

Anne Sraders 2020年06月09日
随着政府开始重启经济,有分析师预测,此次经济复苏的形态将比我们在以往经济衰退中所见的更加多样化。

图片来源:Economic-Recovery-Photo

美国经济陷入危机的过程显然是一条线急转直下。但经济可能会以何种形态复苏,就另当别论了。

经济学家试图弄清楚经济复苏的趋势,但他们能够真正确定的因素只有不可预测的病毒、令人沮丧的经济数据以及短期内失业人口大增(但目前有所好转)。

虽然5月失业率小幅回落至13.3%,但4月失业率猛增至14.7%(许多人甚至怀疑失业率更高),因为自停工以来,已有超过4,260万美国人申请失业救济。第一季度GDP缩水4.8%,但华尔街一致认为的最糟糕的第二季度尚未来临。因此,经济学家和分析师预测,此次经济复苏的形态将比我们在以往经济衰退中所见的更加多样化。

V字型

但随着经济重启(股市已从3月的低点反弹近40%),摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和瑞信(Credit Suisse)等公司最近几周仍认为,经济或股市可能出现V字型复苏。例如,摩根士丹利的首席美国股票策略师迈克尔•威尔逊在5月的一份报告中指出:“我们将看到V字型复苏,原因有两个:经济活动历史性的急剧下降以及前所未有的政策反应。”高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家在5月发布的一份报告中写道:“随着经济重启,我们对大量的经济活动将很快恢复更有信心。”

虽然许多基本经济数据算不上令人鼓舞,但安联(Allianz)的首席经济顾问穆罕默德•埃里安等人指出,他们的乐观情绪来自他所说的“极高频数据”,例如谷歌(Google)移动数据显示了人们在经济重启后的出行和购物方式, Moody's Analytics的首席经济学家马克•赞迪等人则在关注OpenTable的网上订餐等早期数据和ADP数据,以寻找经济增长迹象。

例如,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的资深美国经济学家布雷特•瑞安认为,未来三个月,所有数据都将有所改善。但他质疑:“初始反弹很容易。关键是六个月后,经济复苏速度将如何?虽然现在股市的表现让所有人欢欣鼓舞,我们也从流动性数据中看出:‘哇,经济开始反弹,各州都开始重启,信心有所恢复。’但我们现在还不到该庆祝胜利的时刻。”

一些经济学家说,尽管投资者最近对美国经济重启表现出乐观情绪,但要真正实现V字型复苏只有一种途径,那就是出现一种可以广泛使用且有效的疫苗或治疗方法——但这在短期内不可能出现。

平方根型、U字型、对勾型和钟摆型

经济学家称,衡量经济复苏速度的关键在于就业反弹的速度,以及是否会爆发第二轮疫情。

瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)的资深经济学家布赖恩•罗斯表示,该公司预计经济复苏将呈现U字型而不是V字型。罗斯在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“好消息是经济正在开始恢复增长。但坏消息是增长起点极低。”复苏需要经过漫长的时间。他认为,经济复苏可能表现出一段时间以来最强劲的增长势头,但“由于起点极低,这样的增长势头也不可能让经济很快恢复到之前的水平。”

罗斯认为,快速复工是关键,但人们可能需要很长时间才能返回工作岗位,尤其是在疫情期间一些企业可能彻底倒闭。与此同时,即使限制解除,在疫苗上市之前,人们仍会担心感染病毒。罗斯称:“这将会制约经济增长”。

此外,德意志银行的瑞安则认为经济会以一种不同寻常的形态复苏:平方根型复苏。他说:“倒平方根符号的尾端在起点以下,并逐渐向上倾斜。”他认为,我们似乎终于迎来了拐点,但一季度和二季度GDP将会大幅缩水,需要几年才能恢复。瑞安指出,事实上,德意志银行估计失业率可能要到2023年才会降至疫情之前的水平(约4%)。

政府的大规模(快速)财政和货币响应措施是一大亮点。但瑞安表示,尽管“政府为应对疫情迅速采取了强有力的措施,会让我们在摆脱危机的同时迎来更强劲的经济反弹,但这仍需要时间。”他指出,如果最大威胁(疫情再度爆发导致第二轮停工)到来,就需要更多刺激措施来弥合第二次流动性缺口,随着选举临近,快速通过这些刺激措施可能更具挑战性。

瑞安在接受《财富》杂志采访时指出,无论经济是否会出现平方根型反弹,“但归根结底,这需要创造就业并让人们尽快复工。这将决定经济复苏的速度”。

Moody's Analytics的首席经济学家马克•赞迪等人则更加直言不讳,他指出:“V字型复苏是不可能发生的,可以直接排除。”他表示,因为疫情正在“对经济造成严重的结构性损害。”相反,他认为经济将呈现耐克(Nike)标志的勾型或对勾型复苏。他认为,随着未来几个月业务迅速增长,人们可能会感觉像是V字型复苏,“但在出现可以广泛使用的疫苗或疗法之前,重启会呈现出另一种态势,经济将会横向发展。”

虽然经济已经“迎来转机”,但赞迪预测,就业率将需要五年的时间才能完全恢复。赞迪认为,如果第二波疫情大规模爆发,对于目前脆弱的经济来说,这可能会“引发经济萧条”。但他表示,即使没有第二波疫情,新的财政救援刺激措施对避免第二次衰退也很重要。赞迪认为,出现破产、违约和止赎时,这些趋势的规模将“在很大程度上决定经济复苏的形态”。但他认为,除非出现第二波疫情,而且政策制定者未能再出台一套财政方案,否则我们将会“避免再次陷入衰退”。与此同时,他指出,未来几个月,就业将会增长,经济复苏将“时断时续”。

这种观点更符合安联的首席经济顾问穆罕默德•埃里安的看法。埃里安认为,经济复苏过程将呈现出对勾型和钟摆型:复苏从正常状态开始,然后“猛烈摆动”到封锁期间的状态。他说:“我们会努力寻找一条中间道路,但不可能一蹴而就。我们将在两者之间摇摆。”埃里安说,好消息是,到目前为止,经济重启并没有导致大规模感染。但他也指出,挑战在于,我们还发现“在消费者参与和商业运营方面,重启存在困难”,因为对健康的担忧将是影响消费者参与意愿的核心所在。他说,尽管重启迄今取得了令人鼓舞的进展,但“仍处于初期”。

但不管是否玩文字游戏,赞迪和其他经济学家劝告人们要谨慎:“就像遇到飓风一样:你被卷入飓风,进入了风眼,[而且]如果你没有雷达,你会想:‘哦,我没事,最糟糕的已经过去了。我活下来了。虽然损失很大,但我可以重建。’但如果你有雷达,你知道飓风的另一半即将来临。它也许不像最初那么猛烈,但也可能一样猛烈。我们无法预测。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

美国经济陷入危机的过程显然是一条线急转直下。但经济可能会以何种形态复苏,就另当别论了。

经济学家试图弄清楚经济复苏的趋势,但他们能够真正确定的因素只有不可预测的病毒、令人沮丧的经济数据以及短期内失业人口大增(但目前有所好转)。

虽然5月失业率小幅回落至13.3%,但4月失业率猛增至14.7%(许多人甚至怀疑失业率更高),因为自停工以来,已有超过4,260万美国人申请失业救济。第一季度GDP缩水4.8%,但华尔街一致认为的最糟糕的第二季度尚未来临。因此,经济学家和分析师预测,此次经济复苏的形态将比我们在以往经济衰退中所见的更加多样化。

V字型

但随着经济重启(股市已从3月的低点反弹近40%),摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和瑞信(Credit Suisse)等公司最近几周仍认为,经济或股市可能出现V字型复苏。例如,摩根士丹利的首席美国股票策略师迈克尔•威尔逊在5月的一份报告中指出:“我们将看到V字型复苏,原因有两个:经济活动历史性的急剧下降以及前所未有的政策反应。”高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家在5月发布的一份报告中写道:“随着经济重启,我们对大量的经济活动将很快恢复更有信心。”

虽然许多基本经济数据算不上令人鼓舞,但安联(Allianz)的首席经济顾问穆罕默德•埃里安等人指出,他们的乐观情绪来自他所说的“极高频数据”,例如谷歌(Google)移动数据显示了人们在经济重启后的出行和购物方式, Moody's Analytics的首席经济学家马克•赞迪等人则在关注OpenTable的网上订餐等早期数据和ADP数据,以寻找经济增长迹象。

例如,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的资深美国经济学家布雷特•瑞安认为,未来三个月,所有数据都将有所改善。但他质疑:“初始反弹很容易。关键是六个月后,经济复苏速度将如何?虽然现在股市的表现让所有人欢欣鼓舞,我们也从流动性数据中看出:‘哇,经济开始反弹,各州都开始重启,信心有所恢复。’但我们现在还不到该庆祝胜利的时刻。”

一些经济学家说,尽管投资者最近对美国经济重启表现出乐观情绪,但要真正实现V字型复苏只有一种途径,那就是出现一种可以广泛使用且有效的疫苗或治疗方法——但这在短期内不可能出现。

平方根型、U字型、对勾型和钟摆型

经济学家称,衡量经济复苏速度的关键在于就业反弹的速度,以及是否会爆发第二轮疫情。

瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)的资深经济学家布赖恩•罗斯表示,该公司预计经济复苏将呈现U字型而不是V字型。罗斯在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“好消息是经济正在开始恢复增长。但坏消息是增长起点极低。”复苏需要经过漫长的时间。他认为,经济复苏可能表现出一段时间以来最强劲的增长势头,但“由于起点极低,这样的增长势头也不可能让经济很快恢复到之前的水平。”

罗斯认为,快速复工是关键,但人们可能需要很长时间才能返回工作岗位,尤其是在疫情期间一些企业可能彻底倒闭。与此同时,即使限制解除,在疫苗上市之前,人们仍会担心感染病毒。罗斯称:“这将会制约经济增长”。

此外,德意志银行的瑞安则认为经济会以一种不同寻常的形态复苏:平方根型复苏。他说:“倒平方根符号的尾端在起点以下,并逐渐向上倾斜。”他认为,我们似乎终于迎来了拐点,但一季度和二季度GDP将会大幅缩水,需要几年才能恢复。瑞安指出,事实上,德意志银行估计失业率可能要到2023年才会降至疫情之前的水平(约4%)。

政府的大规模(快速)财政和货币响应措施是一大亮点。但瑞安表示,尽管“政府为应对疫情迅速采取了强有力的措施,会让我们在摆脱危机的同时迎来更强劲的经济反弹,但这仍需要时间。”他指出,如果最大威胁(疫情再度爆发导致第二轮停工)到来,就需要更多刺激措施来弥合第二次流动性缺口,随着选举临近,快速通过这些刺激措施可能更具挑战性。

瑞安在接受《财富》杂志采访时指出,无论经济是否会出现平方根型反弹,“但归根结底,这需要创造就业并让人们尽快复工。这将决定经济复苏的速度”。

Moody's Analytics的首席经济学家马克•赞迪等人则更加直言不讳,他指出:“V字型复苏是不可能发生的,可以直接排除。”他表示,因为疫情正在“对经济造成严重的结构性损害。”相反,他认为经济将呈现耐克(Nike)标志的勾型或对勾型复苏。他认为,随着未来几个月业务迅速增长,人们可能会感觉像是V字型复苏,“但在出现可以广泛使用的疫苗或疗法之前,重启会呈现出另一种态势,经济将会横向发展。”

虽然经济已经“迎来转机”,但赞迪预测,就业率将需要五年的时间才能完全恢复。赞迪认为,如果第二波疫情大规模爆发,对于目前脆弱的经济来说,这可能会“引发经济萧条”。但他表示,即使没有第二波疫情,新的财政救援刺激措施对避免第二次衰退也很重要。赞迪认为,出现破产、违约和止赎时,这些趋势的规模将“在很大程度上决定经济复苏的形态”。但他认为,除非出现第二波疫情,而且政策制定者未能再出台一套财政方案,否则我们将会“避免再次陷入衰退”。与此同时,他指出,未来几个月,就业将会增长,经济复苏将“时断时续”。

这种观点更符合安联的首席经济顾问穆罕默德•埃里安的看法。埃里安认为,经济复苏过程将呈现出对勾型和钟摆型:复苏从正常状态开始,然后“猛烈摆动”到封锁期间的状态。他说:“我们会努力寻找一条中间道路,但不可能一蹴而就。我们将在两者之间摇摆。”埃里安说,好消息是,到目前为止,经济重启并没有导致大规模感染。但他也指出,挑战在于,我们还发现“在消费者参与和商业运营方面,重启存在困难”,因为对健康的担忧将是影响消费者参与意愿的核心所在。他说,尽管重启迄今取得了令人鼓舞的进展,但“仍处于初期”。

但不管是否玩文字游戏,赞迪和其他经济学家劝告人们要谨慎:“就像遇到飓风一样:你被卷入飓风,进入了风眼,[而且]如果你没有雷达,你会想:‘哦,我没事,最糟糕的已经过去了。我活下来了。虽然损失很大,但我可以重建。’但如果你有雷达,你知道飓风的另一半即将来临。它也许不像最初那么猛烈,但也可能一样猛烈。我们无法预测。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

The U.S. economy's descent into a crisis certainly looks like a straight line down. What shape the recovery might take on the way up is an entirely different story.

As economists try to make sense of what a recovery might look like, the only real certainties have been an unpredictable virus, dismaying data, and massive (yet improving) unemployment numbers in the near term.

While unemployment modestly ticked down to 13.3% in May, it skyrocketed in April, hitting 14.7% (and many suspect it was even higher), as over 42.6 million Americans have filed for unemployment since shutdowns began. GDP for the first quarter shrank by 4.8%, with what Wall Street uniformly touts will likely be the worst quarter—the second—still to come. That has led to economists and analysts predicting a much wider variety of lettered and shaped recoveries than we have typically seen in past recessions.

The V crowd

But as the economy begins to reopen (and equity markets have bounced nearly 40% off their March lows), some firms like Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse in recent weeks still see a V-shaped recovery in the economy or market as a possibility. For one, Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in May, "We will see a V-shaped recovery for two reasons—the historic steepness of the decline in activity, and the unprecedented policy response." And Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a May note that "we have more confidence that a large amount of activity will return fairly quickly" as the economy reopens.

While much of the fundamental economic data isn't too encouraging yet, those like Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, point to what he calls "high high frequency data" for optimism, like Google mobility data to show how people are getting out and shopping as reopenings take place, while other economists like Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi are watching early data like OpenTable reservations for restaurants and ADP data for signs of growth in the economy.

For one, Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, is betting all the data in the next three months will improve. "That initial bounce is the easy part. It’s when you get six months out, what does the pace of recovery look like then?" he asks. "While everybody is cheering the stock market right now, and we’re watching the mobility data and saying, 'Wow, things are starting to bounce back, states are starting to open up and confidence is coming back a little bit,' let’s not take a victory lap just yet."

Despite the recent reopening optimism, the only way we'll actually see a true V-shaped recovery, some economists say, is if there is a widely distributed and effective vaccine or treatment available—a scenario that's unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Square root symbols, U-shapes, check marks, and pendulums

Key to gauging how quickly the economy might recover is the pace at which employment bounces back, and whether a second wave of the virus hits, economists say.

UBS Global Wealth Management senior economist Brian Rose says the firm is anticipating a U-shaped recovery, not a V. "The good news [is] that we are starting to grow again. The bad news is that we’re starting from an awfully deep hole" that will take a long time to recover from, Rose tells Fortune. That growth may look like some of the strongest growth we've had in a while, he argues, but "when you're starting from this deep down, even that doesn't get you all the way back to where you were."

A rapid return to work is key, Rose suggests, but it's likely going to take a long time for people to get their jobs back, especially as some businesses may disappear during the crisis. Meanwhile, even as restrictions lift, people will still worry about catching the virus until there's a vaccine. "That’s going to put a limit on the economy," Rose says.

Deutsche's Ryan, on the other hand, prefers a more unusual shape: the square root symbol recovery. "A reversed square root symbol whereby the tail is below the start and gradually upward sloping," he describes. It seems we've hit an inflection point at last, but the GDP contraction in the first and second quarters is going to be massive, and it will take several years for output to recover, he suggests. In fact, Deutsche Bank is estimating the unemployment rate likely won't drop to pre-pandemic levels of around 4% until 2023, says Ryan.

One bright spot? The massive (and quick) fiscal and monetary response from the government. But while that "forceful response right off the bat in this crisis sets you up to have a more robust rebound as we come out the other side of this, it’s still going to take time," Ryan suggests. And if the biggest threat of all (the reemergence of the virus causing a second shutdown) hits, there’s going to need to be more stimulus to bridge a second liquidity gap—something that might be more challenging to pass quickly as the election approaches, he says.

Whether that recovery looks more like a sharp square root symbol or not, "at the end of the day, it’s about job creation and bringing people back to work as quickly as possible. That is really going to determine the pace of this recovery," Ryan tells Fortune.

Others like Moody's Zandi are more blunt: "A V-shaped recovery is out of the question. That’s not happening," he says, as the virus is doing "meaningful structural damage to the economy." Instead, he's seeing a Nike swoosh shape, or a check mark. As businesses ramp up in the coming months, it might feel like a V-shaped recovery, he says, "but on the other side of the reopenings, the economy is going to go sideways until we get a vaccine or therapy that’s widely distributed and adopted."

While the economy has "turned the corner," Zandi predicts employment won't fully recover until mid-decade. If a significant second wave of the virus hits, Zandi believes that could be "fodder for a depression" in the economy's current fragile state. But even without a second wave, new fiscal rescue stimulus will be important to staving off a second recession, he says. And as we start to see bankruptcies, defaults, and foreclosures, how big that wave is will "determine a lot about the shape of the recovery," Zandi argues. But barring a second wave and the failure of policymakers to put another fiscal package together, Zandi thinks we'll "avoid going back into a recession." In the meantime, we'll see job growth in the next few months, and there will be "fits and starts" of recovery, he says.

That's more along the lines of how Allianz's El-Erian sees recovery. He thinks of it more as a check mark or a pendulum: Things started out in a normal state, then "violently swung" to the lockdown stage. "We are trying to find a middle way, and we’re not going to get there immediately. We’re going to oscillate around some midway of these two things," he suggests. The good news is that the reopening thus far hasn't resulted in massive spikes in infection, he says. But the challenge is we're also seeing "there are difficulties in reopening when it comes to consumer engagement and operational issues on the business side," El-Erian notes, as concerns around health will be central in people's willingness to engage. While the progress of the reopening thus far is encouraging, "it's early days," he says.

But playing the letters game or not, economists like Zandi encourage caution: "The metaphor is a hurricane: You get nailed by the hurricane. You go into the eye, [and] if you don't have radar, you think, 'Oh, I’m okay, the worst is over. I survived. A lot of damage, but I can rebuild.' But if you have radar, you know there’s the other side of the hurricane coming. Maybe not as powerful as the original, but maybe it is," he says. "We don’t know."

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