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疫情期间的5个投资建议

疫情期间的5个投资建议

CHRIS TAYLOR 2020年04月12日
《财富》杂志与我们认识的一些最聪明的人进行了交流,他们分享了自己对冠状病毒的看法,以及投资者在疫情下该如何应对。

插图: JAMIE CULLEN

新型冠状病毒疫情期间,不仅要当心病毒的传播,也要当心信息的传播。

如今,出现在各种不同媒体平台上大量的数据和见解,意味着好消息与坏消息通常是鱼目混杂,让我们常常无法分辨,因为信息量太大了。

比如说,当一个人被潮汐裹卷时,他没有时间或条件来将一滴水与另一滴水区分开来,也就无法区分哪一滴水是干净的,哪一滴又是被污染了的。

与冠状病毒相关的信息也是如此。一方面,有像美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长安东尼.福奇博士这样,成为此次危机中一个被尊重的信息来源。另一方面,数量巨大且瞬息万变的社交媒体内容也使得不良信息迅速而轻易地传播,就像可以通过服用可卡因或喝漂白剂的办法来治疗冠状病毒。(但这不可以!)

在正常情况下,你会设想投资者能够从垃圾中分辨出有质量的信息,尤其是涉及到自己的金钱时,在危险的情况下他们应该知道如何应对。但是,由于恐惧和恐慌等原因让人们丧失控制情绪的能力,使人变得更容易感情用事,实际上大家很难坐下来进行清醒的分析。

在这样的时刻,人们会被建议做很多愚蠢的事情,其中任何一个都可能毁掉你谨慎周密的退休计划。考虑到这一点,《财富》杂志与我们认识的一些最聪明的人进行了交谈,他们分享了自己对冠状病毒的看法,以及投资者在疫情下该如何应对。

守住资产配置

对冲基金SkyBridge Capital联合首席投资官特洛伊·盖伊斯基说:“整个行业都接受这种理念是有原因的。因为没人知道未来将怎样,会有各种各样的可能结果,而每一种都会对股票和债券产生不同的影响。除非有紧急的支出需求,否则出售导致配置失衡几乎总是一种失败的策略。当然不要惊慌,不要反应过度,要对自己的资产配置有信心。”

长远考虑而不是短线思维

杜克大学心理学和行为经济学教授,《可预测的非理性》的作者丹·阿里里说:“没人知道会发生什么,但人们可以期待在某个时刻世界将回复正常。而试图预测短期内会发生什么最可能犯大错误。因此,如果相信世界会在某个时刻向好的方向转变,那就不要总是着急要做点儿什么。控制住自己,不必时刻关注市场。”

该把钱放在哪里

Rosenberg Research&Associates首席经济学家和策略师戴维•罗森伯格表示:“如果有人问我他们在当下应该如何投资股市,我首先考虑的会是大盘的安全性。诸如公共事业、多户房地产投资信托、消费必需品和电信等领域。这里要寻找的目标是一些与经济变化不太相关的市场领域,并且股息稳定。而且我认为,一旦进入这样的投资领域,获得财富会非常容易。”

提防债务

盖伊斯基说,目前存在着“有意义的衰退可能”。这意味着应该避开那些负债累累、财务状况不稳定的公司。他说:“避开那些杠杆水平过高和最脆弱的公司,因为你将会看到大量的违约。” “消费者信用已经有所提升,但对于公司信用而言,我们会着重关注那些债务水平创纪录以及承保标准低的。”处于危险之中的领域包括能源、旅行休闲,以及酒店业等。相比较而言,像科技、银行和卫生保健这样的行业更具弹性。

超越冠状病毒

当然,病毒带来的恐惧,以及对我们日常生活的巨大影响,让它成了所有媒体的头条。但是,病毒并不是市场动荡的唯一原因。罗森伯格说:“我们在短期内受到了三重冲击:全球供应链、消费者对服务的需求以及油价暴跌。在三者之中,最后一个是最有害的。从经济的角度来看,石油领域所发生的事情甚至比冠状病毒本身还要大。”(财富中文网)

译者:晨曦

新型冠状病毒疫情期间,不仅要当心病毒的传播,也要当心信息的传播。

如今,出现在各种不同媒体平台上大量的数据和见解,意味着好消息与坏消息通常是鱼目混杂,让我们常常无法分辨,因为信息量太大了。

比如说,当一个人被潮汐裹卷时,他没有时间或条件来将一滴水与另一滴水区分开来,也就无法区分哪一滴水是干净的,哪一滴又是被污染了的。

与冠状病毒相关的信息也是如此。一方面,有像美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长安东尼.福奇博士这样,成为此次危机中一个被尊重的信息来源。另一方面,数量巨大且瞬息万变的社交媒体内容也使得不良信息迅速而轻易地传播,就像可以通过服用可卡因或喝漂白剂的办法来治疗冠状病毒。(但这不可以!)

在正常情况下,你会设想投资者能够从垃圾中分辨出有质量的信息,尤其是涉及到自己的金钱时,在危险的情况下他们应该知道如何应对。但是,由于恐惧和恐慌等原因让人们丧失控制情绪的能力,使人变得更容易感情用事,实际上大家很难坐下来进行清醒的分析。

在这样的时刻,人们会被建议做很多愚蠢的事情,其中任何一个都可能毁掉你谨慎周密的退休计划。考虑到这一点,《财富》杂志与我们认识的一些最聪明的人进行了交谈,他们分享了自己对冠状病毒的看法,以及投资者在疫情下该如何应对。

守住资产配置

对冲基金SkyBridge Capital联合首席投资官特洛伊·盖伊斯基说:“整个行业都接受这种理念是有原因的。因为没人知道未来将怎样,会有各种各样的可能结果,而每一种都会对股票和债券产生不同的影响。除非有紧急的支出需求,否则出售导致配置失衡几乎总是一种失败的策略。当然不要惊慌,不要反应过度,要对自己的资产配置有信心。”

长远考虑而不是短线思维

杜克大学心理学和行为经济学教授,《可预测的非理性》的作者丹·阿里里说:“没人知道会发生什么,但人们可以期待在某个时刻世界将回复正常。而试图预测短期内会发生什么最可能犯大错误。因此,如果相信世界会在某个时刻向好的方向转变,那就不要总是着急要做点儿什么。控制住自己,不必时刻关注市场。”

该把钱放在哪里

Rosenberg Research&Associates首席经济学家和策略师戴维•罗森伯格表示:“如果有人问我他们在当下应该如何投资股市,我首先考虑的会是大盘的安全性。诸如公共事业、多户房地产投资信托、消费必需品和电信等领域。这里要寻找的目标是一些与经济变化不太相关的市场领域,并且股息稳定。而且我认为,一旦进入这样的投资领域,获得财富会非常容易。”

提防债务

盖伊斯基说,目前存在着“有意义的衰退可能”。这意味着应该避开那些负债累累、财务状况不稳定的公司。他说:“避开那些杠杆水平过高和最脆弱的公司,因为你将会看到大量的违约。” “消费者信用已经有所提升,但对于公司信用而言,我们会着重关注那些债务水平创纪录以及承保标准低的。”处于危险之中的领域包括能源、旅行休闲,以及酒店业等。相比较而言,像科技、银行和卫生保健这样的行业更具弹性。

超越冠状病毒

当然,病毒带来的恐惧,以及对我们日常生活的巨大影响,让它成了所有媒体的头条。但是,病毒并不是市场动荡的唯一原因。罗森伯格说:“我们在短期内受到了三重冲击:全球供应链、消费者对服务的需求以及油价暴跌。在三者之中,最后一个是最有害的。从经济的角度来看,石油领域所发生的事情甚至比冠状病毒本身还要大。”(财富中文网)

译者:晨曦

The coronavirus is a test case in more ways than one: not only in viral transmission, but in the spreading of information.

With so many sources of data and opinion these days, on all manner of different media platforms, it means good information mixes with bad—and often we don’t know which is which, because the sheer volume of it all is so overwhelming.

If you’re being overtaken by a tidal wave, for instance, you don’t really have the time or resources to distinguish one droplet of water from another—which is polluted and which is pure.

The same is true of coronavirus information. On the one hand you have someone like Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who is as respected a source as there could be on the subject. On the other hand, you have torrents of social media content, where bad information spreads quickly and easily, such as the idea that the coronavirus can be dealt with by doing cocaine or drinking bleach. (It cannot.)

Under normal conditions, you would hope that investors would be able to tell quality information from garbage—especially when it comes to their money, and what they should do with it in perilous times. But when there are multiple amplifiers like fear and panic, setting off all your emotional triggers, it’s hard to sit back and do sober analysis.

There are plenty of dumb things people are advising in a moment like this, any one of which could torpedo your careful retirement plans. With that in mind, Fortune spoke with a few of the smartest people we know about their take on the coronavirus, and how investors should respond.

Stick with your asset allocation

“There’s a reason the whole industry has embraced it,” says Troy Gayeski, co–chief investment officer for hedge fund SkyBridge Capital. “No one knows the future, and there are a whole range of possible outcomes here, each of which will have different effects on stocks and bonds. But selling into weakness, unless you have urgent spending needs, is almost always a losing strategy. Certainly don’t panic, don’t overreact, and trust in your allocation.”

Favor long-term thinking over short-term

“Nobody knows what will happen, but the odds are at some point the world will go back to being normal,” says Dan Ariely, professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and author of Predictably Irrational. “The biggest possible mistake is to try to predict what will happen short-term. So if you believe the world will get better at some point, you should do nothing, hold, and stop watching the market all the time.”

Think carefully about where to put your money now

“If people are asking where they should put their money in the stock market, I would be thinking in terms of large-cap safety,” says David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research & Associates. “Areas like utilities, multifamily REITs, consumer staples, and telecom. What you’re trying to capture here are areas of the market that are not that correlated with the economy, and where the dividend is solid. And I think gold is as close to a no-brainer as you get in this investment landscape.”

Watch out for debt

There is now a “meaningful probability of recession,” says Gayeski. And that means you should avoid companies that are up to their eyeballs in debt and in precarious financial shape. “Avoid egregious levels of leverage and the most fragile companies, because you can expect a cascade of defaults,” he says. “Consumer credit has improved, but with corporate credit, we’re looking at record levels of debt and weak underwriting standards.” In danger are areas like energy, travel and leisure, and hotels; more resilient sectors include technology, banking, and health care.

Get beyond the coronavirus

Of course the virus is getting all the headlines, because of the fear involved and because of how it is impacting our daily lives. But the market is gyrating for more than just that reason. “We have had a triple shock in short order: the shock to global supply chains, to consumer demand for services, and now the detonation in the energy sector, courtesy of the plunge in oil prices,” says Rosenberg. “Out of the three, the last one is the most pernicious. What is happening with oil, from an economic standpoint, is even bigger than the coronavirus.”

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