立即打开
德国有望在今年迎来绿党总理

德国有望在今年迎来绿党总理

David Meyer 2021年04月23日
在过去一个月中,绿党的民调支持率一直稳定在20%或以上。

德国的小型党派并不打算为总理这种顶级职务提供候选人,因为它们最多也就只能够寄希望于在任何一个“人民党”(德国两个最大的党派基民盟和社民党都称自己是人民党——译注)所领导的联合政府中,成为其执政伙伴。

这也是为什么4月19日对绿党(Greens/EFA)来说是一个重大的时刻,因为它宣布了首名总理候选人:安娜莱娜·贝尔伯克。贝尔伯克如今是德国总理安格拉·默克尔的唯一女性继任候选人,而默克尔将在9月的联邦选举后退休。

绿党在前些年一直为联邦政府效力。在默克尔的基民盟(Christian Democratic Union)于2005年上台之前,绿党连续两届都是格哈特·施罗德的中左翼社会民主党(Social Democrats)的执政伙伴。然而,由于全国选票得票率不到9%,它们放弃了对执政党的争夺。

如今,一切都发生了变化。

在过去一个月中,绿党的民调支持率一直稳定在20%或以上。随着由基民盟和基社盟(Christian Social Union)——统称为联盟党(Union)支持率的下降,绿党的支持率应声上涨。与此同时,当前在长期执政的“大联合政府”担任执政伙伴的社民党,依然位居第三,与过去的两年半相比毫无变化。

4月19日,贝尔伯克在接受其作为如今据称是德国“第三个人民党”的总理候选人提名时表示:“我坚信,要度过这个全新的、充满挑战性的十年,德国需要开启新的篇章。”

绿党在一份声明中指出,在此次选举中,是基民盟还是社民党当选很难预知,这在历史上尚属首次。该声明称:“我们有机会成为德国最强大的政治力量。”

不仅仅是抗议

40岁的贝尔伯克仅比其与罗伯特·哈贝克共同执掌的党派年轻11个月。

在1980年绿党成立之初,西德绿党与当今充斥着全球政治格局的各大绿党非常相似:它是坚定的环保主义者与和平主义者,支持大麻,反核。它曾经是一个边缘党派,由于与主流相距甚远,有一段时间其党派中甚至还存在过支持恋童癖的团体。不过,不得不提的是,亲商的德国自民党(Free Democratic Party)也曾经有过一些难以回首的历史。

自那之后发生了很多变化。1993年,绿党与东德的联盟90(Alliance 90)合并;即便到了今天,该党派可能依然被称为联盟90/绿党。五年后,该党进入了政府,对一些人来说,这是一个令人醒悟的时刻。绿党未能阻止德国参与科索沃冲突以及阿富汗侵略。尽管绿党成功地启动了核电厂的逐渐退出计划,但其时间表要比很多激进分子所期待的更长。

在离开政府之后,也就是默克尔2005年当选总理之际,绿党不断壮大自身在全国层面的力量。在16个德国联邦州中,有11个与绿党成立了联合政府。绿党甚至在巴登符腾堡新近成立的政府中占据了主导地位。

这意味着角逐9月大选的绿党在各个层面都有着大量的治理经验。该党不再像过去那样对环境问题有专断权,因为其崛起甚至促使联盟党加强了对这方面的重视。不过,绿党在其他方面脱颖而出。例如,该党是德国唯一支持放宽移民法的党派,也就是让人们在获得德国公民权的同时无需放弃其他国籍。

贝尔伯克的对手

显然,贝尔伯克并非是根正苗红的总理候选人。她此前曾经是蹦床运动员(在德国锦标赛中曾经三次获得铜牌),也曾经从事过记者工作,后来在汉堡和伦敦学习法律,并于2013年成为了德国议会议员。她没有任何治理经验,但她发起了清洁绿党平台,加速了煤的停用,并令人震惊地对高速公路强制实施了80英里/小时的速度限制。

4月19日,贝尔伯克在一片欢呼声中被作家、哲学家罗伯特·哈贝克任命为绿党总理候选人。这种优雅、团结的场面本来不应该在德国民选中丢失,但在联盟党摩擦极端严重之时却消失了。

今年1月,现任北莱茵-威斯特法伦州州长的中立派议员阿明·拉谢特当选基民盟的领袖。通常来讲,这意味着他成为该联盟的总理候选人是十拿九稳的事情。然而,当前并非是正常时期。

巴伐利亚基社盟(Bavarian CSU)的领袖马库斯·索德也有意竞选总理,而且他拒绝放弃这个机会。基民盟高层倾向于中立派拉舍特,但更加有魅力的保守派索德(他的声望因为在新冠疫情中对强硬抗疫举措的支持有所上升)更受选民的青睐,而他自己也深知这一点。基社盟此前从未成功推出一名总理候选人,但索德非常有竞争力,而且基民盟和基社盟如今可能不得不通过党员投票来打破这个僵局。

与此同时,社民党的候选人是财政部部长奥拉夫·朔尔茨,在振奋人心方面,他倒算不上是一个糟糕透顶的人物,不过却陷入了Wirecard公司的造假丑闻:监管机构未能发现这家已经破产的支付公司的会计违规,而这一切都发生在其任职期间,而且绿党已经将此作为攻击他的把柄。

最近的投票显示,如果拉舍特成为联盟党的候选人,那么在贝尔伯克、拉舍特和社民党的朔尔茨之间,贝尔伯克的呼声最高。然而,如果索德成为联盟党候选人,那么索德似乎比贝尔伯克更受公众青睐。

联盟党依然是人气最高的党派,而且我们有理由认为它依然会在下一届联合政府中扮演统治角色,而绿党和自民党可能会成为执政伙伴。(近些年对社民党支持的崩塌与其未能在其与基民盟/基社盟的联合政府中发挥作用有着很大的关系,因此,再次组建大联合政府的可能性微乎其微。)

不过,离选举开始还有5个月的时间,而这段时期必将充满动荡。公众对联盟党/自民党政府处理疫情的不满仍然在增长,并且基民盟的形象最近因为口罩采购丑闻而受损,有两名立法人员被迫辞职。

因此,可能发生的一种情形是,到今年年底,德国可能会出现由绿党领导的联合政府,其中还包括社民党和另一个党派,有可能是右翼自民党或极左的左翼党;即便在眼下,让这两个小党派加入同一个联合政府所需的重新调整可能比登天还难。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

德国的小型党派并不打算为总理这种顶级职务提供候选人,因为它们最多也就只能够寄希望于在任何一个“人民党”(德国两个最大的党派基民盟和社民党都称自己是人民党——译注)所领导的联合政府中,成为其执政伙伴。

这也是为什么4月19日对绿党(Greens/EFA)来说是一个重大的时刻,因为它宣布了首名总理候选人:安娜莱娜·贝尔伯克。贝尔伯克如今是德国总理安格拉·默克尔的唯一女性继任候选人,而默克尔将在9月的联邦选举后退休。

绿党在前些年一直为联邦政府效力。在默克尔的基民盟(Christian Democratic Union)于2005年上台之前,绿党连续两届都是格哈特·施罗德的中左翼社会民主党(Social Democrats)的执政伙伴。然而,由于全国选票得票率不到9%,它们放弃了对执政党的争夺。

如今,一切都发生了变化。

在过去一个月中,绿党的民调支持率一直稳定在20%或以上。随着由基民盟和基社盟(Christian Social Union)——统称为联盟党(Union)支持率的下降,绿党的支持率应声上涨。与此同时,当前在长期执政的“大联合政府”担任执政伙伴的社民党,依然位居第三,与过去的两年半相比毫无变化。

4月19日,贝尔伯克在接受其作为如今据称是德国“第三个人民党”的总理候选人提名时表示:“我坚信,要度过这个全新的、充满挑战性的十年,德国需要开启新的篇章。”

绿党在一份声明中指出,在此次选举中,是基民盟还是社民党当选很难预知,这在历史上尚属首次。该声明称:“我们有机会成为德国最强大的政治力量。”

不仅仅是抗议

40岁的贝尔伯克仅比其与罗伯特·哈贝克共同执掌的党派年轻11个月。

在1980年绿党成立之初,西德绿党与当今充斥着全球政治格局的各大绿党非常相似:它是坚定的环保主义者与和平主义者,支持大麻,反核。它曾经是一个边缘党派,由于与主流相距甚远,有一段时间其党派中甚至还存在过支持恋童癖的团体。不过,不得不提的是,亲商的德国自民党(Free Democratic Party)也曾经有过一些难以回首的历史。

自那之后发生了很多变化。1993年,绿党与东德的联盟90(Alliance 90)合并;即便到了今天,该党派可能依然被称为联盟90/绿党。五年后,该党进入了政府,对一些人来说,这是一个令人醒悟的时刻。绿党未能阻止德国参与科索沃冲突以及阿富汗侵略。尽管绿党成功地启动了核电厂的逐渐退出计划,但其时间表要比很多激进分子所期待的更长。

在离开政府之后,也就是默克尔2005年当选总理之际,绿党不断壮大自身在全国层面的力量。在16个德国联邦州中,有11个与绿党成立了联合政府。绿党甚至在巴登符腾堡新近成立的政府中占据了主导地位。

这意味着角逐9月大选的绿党在各个层面都有着大量的治理经验。该党不再像过去那样对环境问题有专断权,因为其崛起甚至促使联盟党加强了对这方面的重视。不过,绿党在其他方面脱颖而出。例如,该党是德国唯一支持放宽移民法的党派,也就是让人们在获得德国公民权的同时无需放弃其他国籍。

贝尔伯克的对手

显然,贝尔伯克并非是根正苗红的总理候选人。她此前曾经是蹦床运动员(在德国锦标赛中曾经三次获得铜牌),也曾经从事过记者工作,后来在汉堡和伦敦学习法律,并于2013年成为了德国议会议员。她没有任何治理经验,但她发起了清洁绿党平台,加速了煤的停用,并令人震惊地对高速公路强制实施了80英里/小时的速度限制。

4月19日,贝尔伯克在一片欢呼声中被作家、哲学家罗伯特·哈贝克任命为绿党总理候选人。这种优雅、团结的场面本来不应该在德国民选中丢失,但在联盟党摩擦极端严重之时却消失了。

今年1月,现任北莱茵-威斯特法伦州州长的中立派议员阿明·拉谢特当选基民盟的领袖。通常来讲,这意味着他成为该联盟的总理候选人是十拿九稳的事情。然而,当前并非是正常时期。

巴伐利亚基社盟(Bavarian CSU)的领袖马库斯·索德也有意竞选总理,而且他拒绝放弃这个机会。基民盟高层倾向于中立派拉舍特,但更加有魅力的保守派索德(他的声望因为在新冠疫情中对强硬抗疫举措的支持有所上升)更受选民的青睐,而他自己也深知这一点。基社盟此前从未成功推出一名总理候选人,但索德非常有竞争力,而且基民盟和基社盟如今可能不得不通过党员投票来打破这个僵局。

与此同时,社民党的候选人是财政部部长奥拉夫·朔尔茨,在振奋人心方面,他倒算不上是一个糟糕透顶的人物,不过却陷入了Wirecard公司的造假丑闻:监管机构未能发现这家已经破产的支付公司的会计违规,而这一切都发生在其任职期间,而且绿党已经将此作为攻击他的把柄。

最近的投票显示,如果拉舍特成为联盟党的候选人,那么在贝尔伯克、拉舍特和社民党的朔尔茨之间,贝尔伯克的呼声最高。然而,如果索德成为联盟党候选人,那么索德似乎比贝尔伯克更受公众青睐。

联盟党依然是人气最高的党派,而且我们有理由认为它依然会在下一届联合政府中扮演统治角色,而绿党和自民党可能会成为执政伙伴。(近些年对社民党支持的崩塌与其未能在其与基民盟/基社盟的联合政府中发挥作用有着很大的关系,因此,再次组建大联合政府的可能性微乎其微。)

不过,离选举开始还有5个月的时间,而这段时期必将充满动荡。公众对联盟党/自民党政府处理疫情的不满仍然在增长,并且基民盟的形象最近因为口罩采购丑闻而受损,有两名立法人员被迫辞职。

因此,可能发生的一种情形是,到今年年底,德国可能会出现由绿党领导的联合政府,其中还包括社民党和另一个党派,有可能是右翼自民党或极左的左翼党;即便在眼下,让这两个小党派加入同一个联合政府所需的重新调整可能比登天还难。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Germany’s smaller parties don’t tend to field candidates for the top post of chancellor—a pointless gesture when the most they can hope for is a junior role in a coalition led by one of the two big Volksparteien, or “people’s parties.”

That’s why it was a momentous occasion for the Greens to announce their first such candidate on April 19: Annalena Baerbock, who is now the only female candidate to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is retiring after September’s federal election.

The Greens have served in federal government in previous years. Before Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) took over in 2005, they were junior partners to Gerhard Schröder’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) for two terms. But with less than 9% of the national vote, they didn’t pretend to have a shot at the top spot.

That’s all changed now.

For the past month, the Greens have been polling solidly at 20% or more, their fortunes climbing amid ebbing support for the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU)—collectively known as “Union.” Meanwhile, the SPD, which is currently the junior partner in a long-running “Grand Coalition” with Union, remains stuck in third place, as it has been for the past two and a half years.

“I am thoroughly convinced that this country needs a fresh start to get through this new, challenging decade,” Baerbock said on April 19, accepting her nomination as the face of what is now arguably Germany’s third Volkspartei.

In a statement, the party noted that this election will be the first in which a CDU or SPD chancellor is not a foregone conclusion. “We have the chance to become the strongest political force in Germany,” it said.

Beyond protest

At the age of 40, Baerbock is only slightly younger—by 11 months—than the party she steers along with co-leader Robert Habeck.

At their formation back in 1980, the West German Greens were much like the Green parties that dot the global political landscape today: strongly environmentalist and pacifist, pro-cannabis and anti-nuclear. It was a fringe party, so distant from the mainstream that it tolerated a pro-pedophilia faction in its ranks for years (though it should be noted that the pro-business Free Democratic Party also has some uncomfortable history there).

A lot has changed. In 1993, the Greens merged with East Germany’s Alliance 90; even today, they are properly known as Alliance 90/The Greens. Five years later, they found themselves in government, and for some it was disillusionment time. The Greens were unable to stop Germany’s participation in the Kosovo conflict and the invasion of Afghanistan. And while they did manage to kick-start the gradual phaseout of nuclear power, the timetable was longer than many activists had hoped for.

After leaving government when Merkel came to power in 2005, the Greens went on to build up a strong presence at the state level. Of the 16 German Länder, 11 have coalition governments with Greens in them, and the party even led the most recent administration in the state of Baden-Württemberg.

That means the Green Party contesting September’s election is one with plenty of governing experience at all levels. It no longer has the monopoly on environmental issues that it once did—the rise of the Greens has prompted even Union to step up on that front—but it has become a standout in other ways. For example, the Greens are the only major German party to support liberalization of immigration laws so people could gain German citizenship without forfeiting their other citizenships.

Baerbock’s foes

Baerbock is certainly no traditional candidate for the chancellery. A former trampolinist (who won bronze three times in the German championships) and journalist, she went on to study law in Hamburg and London, before becoming a member of the German parliament in 2013. She does not have any governing experience, but she has pushed for a clear Green platform that would accelerate the phaseout of coal and—shock horror—impose an 80 mph speed limit on the autobahn.

On April 19, Baerbock was enthusiastically endorsed as the Green candidate by Habeck, a writer and philosopher. This show of grace and unity will not have been lost on the German voting populace, coming as it did during an extremely fractious moment for Union.

In January, the centrist Armin Laschet—currently the state premier of North Rhine–Westphalia—became leader of the CDU. Ordinarily, that would mean he’s a shoo-in to be the Union candidate. But these are not ordinary times.

Markus Söder, the leader of the Bavarian CSU, would also like to be chancellor, and he refuses to let go of the possibility. CDU party grandees favor the centrist, Merkel-esque Laschet, but the far more charismatic and conservative Söder—whose profile has risen during the pandemic, owing to his backing of tough measures—is more popular with voters, and he knows it. The CSU has never successfully fielded a candidate for chancellor before, but Söder is game, and the CDU and CSU may now have to poll their memberships to break the impasse.

Meanwhile, the SPD’s candidate is Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, who is not a terribly inspiring figure and who also finds himself caught up in the Wirecard fraud scandal: The regulatory failures that missed the now-collapsed payment firm’s accounting irregularities happened under his watch, and the Greens are using this to attack him.

Recent polling suggests that if Laschet were to become the Union candidate, Baerbock would be the most popular choice among herself, Laschet, and the SPD’s Scholz. However, it also seems that Söder would prove more popular with the public than Baerbock, if he became the Union candidate.

Union is still the most popular party, and the smart money would still be on its heading up the next governing coalition, perhaps with the Greens and the FDP as junior partners. (The collapse in support for SPD over recent years has much to do with its failure to exert influence in its coalitions with the CDU/CSU, so yet another Grand Coalition seems extremely unlikely.)

However, there are still five months to go before the election, and it’s certain to be a volatile period. Public dissatisfaction with the Union/SPD government’s handling of the pandemic continues to grow, and the CDU has recently been damaged by mask procurement scandals that forced the resignation of two of its lawmakers.

So it is possible that, by the end of this year, Germany could end up with a Green-led coalition that also features the SPD and another party, perhaps the right-wing FDP or the far-left Left; the realignment needed to get both those smaller parties into the same coalition would probably be too extraordinary even for these times.

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开财富Plus App