摩根大通CEO：后疫情的反弹将持续到2023年
杰米•戴蒙表示，他相信疫情终将结束，美国经济反弹可能持续至少两年。
“我相信，随着过度储蓄、新的刺激储蓄、巨额赤字支出、更多量化宽松政策、新的潜在基础设施法案、成功的疫苗，以及疫情结束后的兴奋情绪，美国经济可能会出现繁荣。”摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）首席执行官杰米•戴蒙周三在一份写给股东的年度信函中表示。“这种繁荣可以轻轻松松持续到2023年。”
戴蒙称，史无前例的联邦纾困计划缓解了失业问题，避免了经济进一步恶化。他表示，银行在此次危机中表现强劲，能够帮助各社会团体渡过难关。他说，贷款机构从美国刺激计划中受益的同时，已就未来贷款损失拨备缓冲，并在压力测试中表现良好。
戴蒙还指出，美国消费者利用刺激支票将债务降至40年来的最低水平，他们还将刺激支票存入储蓄账户，一旦封锁结束，他们会像企业一样展现出“异乎寻常的”消费能力。他说，最新一轮量化宽松措施将在美国银行业创造超过3万亿美元的存款，其中一部分可以贷出。
戴蒙认为，这一切都会带来经济繁荣，促进经济快速且持续地增长，而通胀则缓慢上升。在此期间，面临的威胁包括病毒变种以及通胀快速或持续上升，促使美联储更早加息。
现年65岁的戴蒙是全球银行业最杰出的高管，他既是银行业的发言人，又是华尔街和消费信贷巨头的领袖。他从2005年底开始掌管这家公司，是唯一一位在带领一家大型银行度过金融危机后仍掌权的CEO。
这封长达65页的信（加上一页脚注）是戴蒙继去年接受紧急心脏手术返回工作岗位后不到一周发出一封简短信件之后发出的最长一封信。一如既往，信中涉及的话题很广，从中国金融监管制度到不平等和制度性种族主义。
竞争威胁
戴蒙打造了美国历史上最大、获利最丰的银行，他警告股东，银行业终将被科技颠覆。影子贷款人一路高歌猛进。传统银行在金融体系中的作用逐渐减弱。
“无论从何种角度看，银行都面临巨大的竞争威胁，”他说。“金融科技和科技巨头都来了……大时代已经来临！”
这封信详述了戴蒙多年来提出的预测，只是这一次指出，各种威胁已经到来。他说，金融科技公司发展日益迅猛，能够提供使用快速、便捷的智能化产品。影子银行（包括向企业和消费者提供融资的投资基金以及在线平台）也在不断赢得市场份额。
随着监管放松，这些公司的增长速度在某些方面甚至超过了银行。他说，他们还通过灵活的网络平台，在“解决客户痛点方面做得非常出色”。
“虽然我仍然相信摩根大通能够在竞争中实现增长，并为股东带来了丰厚的回报，但竞争将会十分激烈，我们必须更快、更有创意地参与竞争，”这位首席执行官在信中写道。“今后，我们要推行并购策略，与此同时，也要投资金融科技领域。”
他还谈到了摩根大通今后对房地产的需求，远程办公可能比疫情持续时间更长，预计房地产需求将大幅下降。他说，由于一些员工采用混合办公模式，摩根大通可能需为60%的员工准备办公空间。他补充称，摩根大通仍然打算在纽约建立新总部。
尽管参议院少数党领袖米奇•麦康奈尔两天前发出警告，要求企业领导人应尽量避免就政治分裂问题表明立场，但戴蒙还是在信中涉足了移民、医疗和教育等领域。
“我们所面临的问题并非由民主党人或共和党人独有，解决方案也是如此，”戴蒙在信中写道。“相反，党派政治正在阻碍合作政策的设计和实施，特别是在联邦层面。”
‘大错特错’
尽管经济前景十分光明，但戴蒙仍然察觉到了让民众极其不满的原因。
此次疫情将严重不平等及其破坏性影响推到了聚光灯下。他说，民众对政府解决医疗和移民等问题的能力失去了信心。
“美国人都知道有些事情已经大错特错，他们将其归咎于国家领导层，包括政府、商界和公民社会的精英、权贵和决策者，”他在信中写道。“他们有这样的反应很自然，要不然还有谁应该为此承担责任？”
他表示，这助长了左右两派的民粹主义。“但民粹主义并非政策，我们不能让其再次催生不完善计划和无能领导者，这只会让我们国家的情况变得更糟。”
这位CEO甚至用经济术语来解释：他估计，大范围发生的“功能失调”已经使美国经济增长率下降了一个百分点。他建议借鉴国外的解决方案，如德国的学徒计划、新加坡的医疗体系以及香港的基础设施。
戴蒙还再次呼吁美国制定马歇尔计划，即美国在二战后帮助西欧恢复经济的计划，以应对美国种族和经济危机背后的结构性挑战。
“解决美国面临的问题需要付出艰辛的努力。但如果我们对这些问题进行分类，我们就会找到许多可行的解决方案，”他说。“只要进行细致周到的分析、了解常识并且务实，我们就有希望。”（财富中文网）
翻译：郝秀
审校：汪皓
杰米•戴蒙表示，他相信疫情终将结束，美国经济反弹可能持续至少两年。
“我相信，随着过度储蓄、新的刺激储蓄、巨额赤字支出、更多量化宽松政策、新的潜在基础设施法案、成功的疫苗，以及疫情结束后的兴奋情绪，美国经济可能会出现繁荣。”摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）首席执行官杰米•戴蒙周三在一份写给股东的年度信函中表示。“这种繁荣可以轻轻松松持续到2023年。”
戴蒙称，史无前例的联邦纾困计划缓解了失业问题，避免了经济进一步恶化。他表示，银行在此次危机中表现强劲，能够帮助各社会团体渡过难关。他说，贷款机构从美国刺激计划中受益的同时，已就未来贷款损失拨备缓冲，并在压力测试中表现良好。
戴蒙还指出，美国消费者利用刺激支票将债务降至40年来的最低水平，他们还将刺激支票存入储蓄账户，一旦封锁结束，他们会像企业一样展现出“异乎寻常的”消费能力。他说，最新一轮量化宽松措施将在美国银行业创造超过3万亿美元的存款，其中一部分可以贷出。
戴蒙认为，这一切都会带来经济繁荣，促进经济快速且持续地增长，而通胀则缓慢上升。在此期间，面临的威胁包括病毒变种以及通胀快速或持续上升，促使美联储更早加息。
现年65岁的戴蒙是全球银行业最杰出的高管，他既是银行业的发言人，又是华尔街和消费信贷巨头的领袖。他从2005年底开始掌管这家公司，是唯一一位在带领一家大型银行度过金融危机后仍掌权的CEO。
这封长达65页的信（加上一页脚注）是戴蒙继去年接受紧急心脏手术返回工作岗位后不到一周发出一封简短信件之后发出的最长一封信。一如既往，信中涉及的话题很广，从中国金融监管制度到不平等和制度性种族主义。
竞争威胁
戴蒙打造了美国历史上最大、获利最丰的银行，他警告股东，银行业终将被科技颠覆。影子贷款人一路高歌猛进。传统银行在金融体系中的作用逐渐减弱。
“无论从何种角度看，银行都面临巨大的竞争威胁，”他说。“金融科技和科技巨头都来了……大时代已经来临！”
这封信详述了戴蒙多年来提出的预测，只是这一次指出，各种威胁已经到来。他说，金融科技公司发展日益迅猛，能够提供使用快速、便捷的智能化产品。影子银行（包括向企业和消费者提供融资的投资基金以及在线平台）也在不断赢得市场份额。
随着监管放松，这些公司的增长速度在某些方面甚至超过了银行。他说，他们还通过灵活的网络平台，在“解决客户痛点方面做得非常出色”。
“虽然我仍然相信摩根大通能够在竞争中实现增长，并为股东带来了丰厚的回报，但竞争将会十分激烈，我们必须更快、更有创意地参与竞争，”这位首席执行官在信中写道。“今后，我们要推行并购策略，与此同时，也要投资金融科技领域。”
他还谈到了摩根大通今后对房地产的需求，远程办公可能比疫情持续时间更长，预计房地产需求将大幅下降。他说，由于一些员工采用混合办公模式，摩根大通可能需为60%的员工准备办公空间。他补充称，摩根大通仍然打算在纽约建立新总部。
尽管参议院少数党领袖米奇•麦康奈尔两天前发出警告，要求企业领导人应尽量避免就政治分裂问题表明立场，但戴蒙还是在信中涉足了移民、医疗和教育等领域。
“我们所面临的问题并非由民主党人或共和党人独有，解决方案也是如此，”戴蒙在信中写道。“相反，党派政治正在阻碍合作政策的设计和实施，特别是在联邦层面。”
‘大错特错’
尽管经济前景十分光明，但戴蒙仍然察觉到了让民众极其不满的原因。
此次疫情将严重不平等及其破坏性影响推到了聚光灯下。他说，民众对政府解决医疗和移民等问题的能力失去了信心。
“美国人都知道有些事情已经大错特错，他们将其归咎于国家领导层，包括政府、商界和公民社会的精英、权贵和决策者，”他在信中写道。“他们有这样的反应很自然，要不然还有谁应该为此承担责任？”
他表示，这助长了左右两派的民粹主义。“但民粹主义并非政策，我们不能让其再次催生不完善计划和无能领导者，这只会让我们国家的情况变得更糟。”
这位CEO甚至用经济术语来解释：他估计，大范围发生的“功能失调”已经使美国经济增长率下降了一个百分点。他建议借鉴国外的解决方案，如德国的学徒计划、新加坡的医疗体系以及香港的基础设施。
戴蒙还再次呼吁美国制定马歇尔计划，即美国在二战后帮助西欧恢复经济的计划，以应对美国种族和经济危机背后的结构性挑战。
“解决美国面临的问题需要付出艰辛的努力。但如果我们对这些问题进行分类，我们就会找到许多可行的解决方案，”他说。“只要进行细致周到的分析、了解常识并且务实，我们就有希望。”（财富中文网）
翻译：郝秀
审校：汪皓
Jamie Dimon said he’s optimistic the pandemic will end with a U.S. economic rebound that could last at least two years.
“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the U.S. economy will likely boom,” the JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said Wednesday in his annual letter to shareholders. “This boom could easily run into 2023.”
Unprecedented federal rescue programs have blunted unemployment and averted further economic deterioration, according to Dimon, who said banks entered the crisis strong and able to help communities weather the storm. While lenders also benefited from U.S. stimulus, they built up buffers against future loan losses and performed well in stress tests, he said.
Dimon also pointed to U.S. consumers, who used stimulus checks to reduce debt to the lowest level in 40 years and stashed them in savings, giving them—like corporations—an “extraordinary” amount of spending power once lockdowns end. The latest round of quantitative easing measures will have created more than $3 trillion in deposits at U.S. banks, a portion of which can be lent out, he said.
It could all add up to a Goldilocks moment, according to Dimon, where growth is fast and sustained while inflation ticks up gently. Threats to that outcome include virus variants and a rapid or sustained jump in inflation that prompts rates to rise sooner.
At 65, Dimon is the most prominent executive in global banking, serving as a spokesman for the industry while leading a titan of both Wall Street and consumer lending. He’s run the company since the end of 2005, and is the only CEO still at the helm after steering a major bank through the financial crisis.
The 65-page letter (plus a page of footnotes) is Dimon’s longest yet, following last year’s abbreviated one that came less than a week after he returned to work from emergency heart surgery. As always, it is wide-ranging, touching on topics from financial regulation to China to inequality and institutional racism.
Competitive threats
Dimon, who built the biggest and most profitable U.S. bank in history, also warned shareholders that his industry’s disruption by technology is finally at hand. Shadow lenders are gaining ground. Traditional banks are being consigned to a shrinking role in the financial system.
“Banks have enormous competitive threats—from virtually every angle,” he said. “Fintech and Big Tech are here… big time!”
The letter expands on predictions Dimon has offered for years, this time declaring many of those threats have now arrived. Financial-technology firms are more formidable, offering easy-to-use, fast and smart products, he said. Shadow banks—a group that includes investment funds and online platforms offering financing to companies and consumers—are winning market share too.
Those groups have outpaced the growth of banks by some measures, often thanks to less regulation. They have also done “a terrific job in easing customers’ pain points” with slick online platforms, he said.
“While I am still confident that JPMorgan Chase can grow and earn a good return for its shareholders, the competition will be intense, and we must get faster and be more creative,” the CEO wrote. “Acquisitions are in our future, and fintech is an area where some of that cash could be put to work.”
He also touched on the bank’s future need for real estate, expecting it to drop significantly as remote working outlasts the pandemic. The bank could require some 60 seats for every 100 employees as some staff work under a hybrid model, he said. The lender still intends to build its new headquarters in New York City, he added.
Despite a warning just two days ago from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that corporate leaders should refrain from taking stances on divisive political issues, Dimon wades into areas including immigration, health care and education.
“Our problems are neither Democratic nor Republican—nor are the solutions,” Dimon wrote. “Unfortunately, however, partisan politics is preventing collaborative policy from being designed and implemented, particularly at the federal level.”
‘Terribly wrong’
For all the brightness in his economic outlook, Dimon found cause for far darker laments.
The pandemic has thrust profound inequities and their devastating effects into the spotlight. On issues such as health care and immigration, people have lost faith in the government’s ability to solve problems, he said.
“Americans know that something has gone terribly wrong, and they blame this country’s leadership: the elite, the powerful, the decision makers—in government, in business and in civic society,” he wrote. “This is completely appropriate, for who else should take the blame?”
That fuels populism on the right and left, he said. “But populism is not policy, and we cannot let it drive another round of poor planning and bad leadership that will simply make our country’s situation worse.”
The CEO even put it in economic terms: He estimates wide-ranging “dysfunction” has cut a percentage point off the U.S. growth rate. He suggested studying solutions abroad, pointing to apprenticeship programs in Germany, health care in Singapore and infrastructure in Hong Kong.
Dimon also reiterated a call for a national Marshall Plan, referring to the U.S. effort to help Western Europe recover from World War II, to address the structural challenges behind the country’s racial and economic crises.
“Fixing America’s problems is going to take hard work. But if we divide them into their component parts, we will find many viable solutions,” he said. “With thoughtful analysis, common sense and pragmatism, there is hope.”
