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美国制裁华为引发的全球“芯片荒”,何时到尽头?

美国制裁华为引发的全球“芯片荒”,何时到尽头?

巴益明(Eamon Barrett) 2021-05-10
“称作‘短缺’其实不太合理。那只是糟糕的供应链管理。”

由于半导体需求的激增远远超出了供应能力,全球正处于芯片短缺的困境之中。从总体来看,芯片短缺已经严重影响了汽车、智能手机等各行各业,其中汽车制造商的“芯片荒”情况最为严重。

例如,苹果公司已经错开了新款iPhone的发布时间,以应对供应减少的情况。与此同时,福特公司预测,由于用来控制速度表和防抱死制动系统等功能的车载电脑的芯片短缺,福特将不得不封存工厂,这一行为将导致其营运利润将减少25亿美元。该公司预计,第二季度的产量将下降一半。

而半导体制造商已经在增加产能,以满足未来预期。半导体供应方面的高管也开始猜测,从2020年年底开始的芯片短缺,何时会得到缓解。

他们普遍认为,2021年全年,芯片供应将继续保持紧张。英特尔的首席执行官帕特·基辛格预计,这种短缺将持续“几年”。德国芯片制造商英飞凌同样怀疑,供应将在2023年才能够最终满足需求。

但也有一个好消息:此次短缺并不是因为资源短缺(构成半导体晶圆基底的原硅缺乏),而只是供求之间的不平衡。协调平衡需要扩大产能,以及更多的时间。

为何会出现全球性的芯片短缺?

由于制造商偏爱按照季节推出新产品(智能手机和汽车品牌都是如此),半导体需求自然会经历高峰和低谷。但在2020年,许多因素汇聚在一起,形成了一个出乎意料的需求高峰。

去年5月,美国特朗普政府对华为技术有限公司实施制裁,阻止这家中国智能手机制造商购买使用美国技术制造的半导体。这一禁令给了供应商120天的时间来配合,迫使华为在禁令到来前增加订单并储备芯片。

Counterpoint Research的分析师布雷迪·王(音译)表示:“在美国对华为实施制裁后,其他中国智能手机制造商也开始增加半导体订单。”

此外,新冠疫情迫使数百万人在家工作,个人电子产品订单增加——当然,这些电子产品需要大量芯片。2020年上半年,中国的笔记本电脑出口激增9.8%,以满足家庭办公突增的需求。疫情还迫使部分芯片制造商暂时关闭生产线,导致供应方面出现下滑。

还有一个可能更重要的因素:汽车制造商们预计,疫情会使新车销量降低。因此它们下调了生产前景,取消了半导体订单。但是,疫情带来的低迷实际上并没有它们预期的那么明显,随着各国推出疫苗,消费者需求大幅回升。

之前取消了半导体采购的汽车制造商们争先恐后地订立新的订单,却发现自己排在了个人电子产品制造商的后面。芯片信息论坛SemiWiki的创始人丹尼尔·南尼指出:“称作‘短缺’其实不太合理。那只是糟糕的供应链管理。”

当然,也不是所有汽车制造商都受到了这么严重的打击。日产的首席运营官阿什瓦尼·古普塔告诉彭博社,芯片短缺是每家公司都可以“避免的”事情:改善供应链的管理即可。和这场危机中的其他很多公司一样,如果早做准备,它们本也能够有更好的表现,但由于无法提供完成订单所需的芯片,日产已经下发了停工通知。

与此同时,一直密切关注着供应链的丰田早就开始“先下手为强”地囤积芯片,也因此度过了这场短缺危机。

供给侧

在5月5日与记者的电话会议上,德国芯片制造商英飞凌(主要研发汽车芯片)表示,汽车制造商们已经从芯片短缺中吸取了教训,“它们以前在订芯片的时候,都是需要多少就订多少,不需要了就取消订单。”

但是,半导体行业还有其他难以解决的瓶颈。全球约80%的芯片供应——实际上也大约是英飞凌芯片供应量的80%——都来自亚洲,亚洲的芯片制造市场又是以中国台湾的台积电一家独大。

台积电已经在中国大陆投资28.8亿美元设厂,以扩大汽车芯片的产能,“缓解全球芯片供应的挑战”。该公司还承诺在未来三年内拨款1000亿美元,以“应对长期需求的结构性增长”。

在芯片短缺的情况下,这家中国台湾公司的独霸地位使其成为“造芯之王”。5月5日,美国商务部部长吉娜·雷蒙多称,美国商务部正在“想方设法让台积电优先考虑美国汽车公司的需求。”

德国官员也向中国台湾方面提出要求,让它们尽可能地优先保证德国车企的芯片供应——最好可以在1月就达成。中国台湾方面的回应是,芯片供应要德国用新冠疫苗来换,但这种交易似乎从未实现。

美国和欧盟都出台了提高本土半导体产能的计划,但这也只能够略微减少它们对亚洲的依赖。欧盟希望到2030年将其芯片产能提高一倍,占全球市场的20%。与此同时,美国总统乔·拜登正在努力争取500亿美元的政府资金,以振兴美国国内的半导体产业。

这些额外增加的产能(其中一些还是由台积电建立的)在短期内不会很快解决芯片短缺的问题,但从长远来看,还是有助于增加芯片行业的产能的。

研究机构Canalys的分析师桑亚姆·查拉西亚表示:“到2021年年底,整个行业的产能将大幅度提高。”他说,一些芯片制造商甚至从去年就开始提高产能,但是新工厂投产大约还需要一年的时间。

查拉西亚说:“最终,芯片供应可以满足需求,达到供需平衡。这就是市场规律。”(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一、陈聪聪

由于半导体需求的激增远远超出了供应能力,全球正处于芯片短缺的困境之中。从总体来看,芯片短缺已经严重影响了汽车、智能手机等各行各业,其中汽车制造商的“芯片荒”情况最为严重。

例如,苹果公司已经错开了新款iPhone的发布时间,以应对供应减少的情况。与此同时,福特公司预测,由于用来控制速度表和防抱死制动系统等功能的车载电脑的芯片短缺,福特将不得不封存工厂,这一行为将导致其营运利润将减少25亿美元。该公司预计,第二季度的产量将下降一半。

而半导体制造商已经在增加产能,以满足未来预期。半导体供应方面的高管也开始猜测,从2020年年底开始的芯片短缺,何时会得到缓解。

他们普遍认为,2021年全年,芯片供应将继续保持紧张。英特尔的首席执行官帕特·基辛格预计,这种短缺将持续“几年”。德国芯片制造商英飞凌同样怀疑,供应将在2023年才能够最终满足需求。

但也有一个好消息:此次短缺并不是因为资源短缺(构成半导体晶圆基底的原硅缺乏),而只是供求之间的不平衡。协调平衡需要扩大产能,以及更多的时间。

为何会出现全球性的芯片短缺?

由于制造商偏爱按照季节推出新产品(智能手机和汽车品牌都是如此),半导体需求自然会经历高峰和低谷。但在2020年,许多因素汇聚在一起,形成了一个出乎意料的需求高峰。

去年5月,美国特朗普政府对华为技术有限公司实施制裁,阻止这家中国智能手机制造商购买使用美国技术制造的半导体。这一禁令给了供应商120天的时间来配合,迫使华为在禁令到来前增加订单并储备芯片。

Counterpoint Research的分析师布雷迪·王(音译)表示:“在美国对华为实施制裁后,其他中国智能手机制造商也开始增加半导体订单,意图夺取华为留下的市场份额。这也构成了目前短缺的原因之一。”

此外,新冠疫情迫使数百万人在家工作,个人电子产品订单增加——当然,这些电子产品需要大量芯片。2020年上半年,中国的笔记本电脑出口激增9.8%,以满足家庭办公突增的需求。疫情还迫使部分芯片制造商暂时关闭生产线,导致供应方面出现下滑。

还有一个可能更重要的因素:汽车制造商们预计,疫情会使新车销量降低。因此它们下调了生产前景,取消了半导体订单。但是,疫情带来的低迷实际上并没有它们预期的那么明显,随着各国推出疫苗,消费者需求大幅回升。

之前取消了半导体采购的汽车制造商们争先恐后地订立新的订单,却发现自己排在了个人电子产品制造商的后面。芯片信息论坛SemiWiki的创始人丹尼尔·南尼指出:“称作‘短缺’其实不太合理。那只是糟糕的供应链管理。”

当然,也不是所有汽车制造商都受到了这么严重的打击。日产的首席运营官阿什瓦尼·古普塔告诉彭博社,芯片短缺是每家公司都可以“避免的”事情:改善供应链的管理即可。和这场危机中的其他很多公司一样,如果早做准备,它们本也能够有更好的表现,但由于无法提供完成订单所需的芯片,日产已经下发了停工通知。

与此同时,一直密切关注着供应链的丰田早就开始“先下手为强”地囤积芯片,也因此度过了这场短缺危机。

供给侧

在5月5日与记者的电话会议上,德国芯片制造商英飞凌(主要研发汽车芯片)表示,汽车制造商们已经从芯片短缺中吸取了教训,“它们以前在订芯片的时候,都是需要多少就订多少,不需要了就取消订单。”

但是,半导体行业还有其他难以解决的瓶颈。全球约80%的芯片供应——实际上也大约是英飞凌芯片供应量的80%——都来自亚洲,亚洲的芯片制造市场又是以中国台湾的台积电一家独大。

台积电已经在中国大陆投资28.8亿美元设厂,以扩大汽车芯片的产能,“缓解全球芯片供应的挑战”。该公司还承诺在未来三年内拨款1000亿美元,以“应对长期需求的结构性增长”。

在芯片短缺的情况下,这家中国台湾公司的独霸地位使其成为“造芯之王”。5月5日,美国商务部部长吉娜·雷蒙多称,美国商务部正在“想方设法让台积电优先考虑美国汽车公司的需求。”

德国官员也向中国台湾方面提出要求,让它们尽可能地优先保证德国车企的芯片供应——最好可以在1月就达成。中国台湾方面的回应是,芯片供应要德国用新冠疫苗来换,但这种交易似乎从未实现。

美国和欧盟都出台了提高本土半导体产能的计划,但这也只能够略微减少它们对亚洲的依赖。欧盟希望到2030年将其芯片产能提高一倍,占全球市场的20%。与此同时,美国总统乔·拜登正在努力争取500亿美元的政府资金,以振兴美国国内的半导体产业。

这些额外增加的产能(其中一些还是由台积电建立的)在短期内不会很快解决芯片短缺的问题,但从长远来看,还是有助于增加芯片行业的产能的。

研究机构Canalys的分析师桑亚姆·查拉西亚表示:“到2021年年底,整个行业的产能将大幅度提高。”他说,一些芯片制造商甚至从去年就开始提高产能,但是新工厂投产大约还需要一年的时间。

查拉西亚说:“最终,芯片供应可以满足需求,达到供需平衡。这就是市场规律。”(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一、陈聪聪

The world is in the grips of a global chip shortage because of demand for semiconductors surging far beyond capacity for supply. The shortage is crippling players in industries as diverse and far afield as automotives and smartphones—though carmakers have it the worst.

Apple, for example, has staggered the release of new iPhones to adjust for reduced supply. Ford, meanwhile, is predicting that the shortage of chips—used for onboard computers that control features like speedometers and antilock brake systems—will result in a $2.5 billion reduction in operating profit as the automaker mothballs factories. It expects production to fall by half in the second quarter.

Semiconductor manufacturers are already adding more capacity to meet future projections, and executives on the supply side of semiconductors have begun to speculate when the shortage, which emerged at the end of 2020, will ease.

There's consensus that supply will remain tight throughout 2021. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger predicts the shortage will persist for a “couple of years.” German chipmaker Infineon likewise suspects supply to finally meet demand in 2023.

But the good news is that the shortage isn't the result of a genuine lack of resources, such as a dearth of the raw silicon that forms the wafer base for semiconductors; it’s just a disequilibrium between demand and supply. Rebalancing will require expanding capacity—and time.

Why is there a global chip shortage?

Demand for semiconductors experiences natural peaks and troughs since manufacturers tend to launch new deliverables, such as the latest smartphone model or the newest car marque, seasonally. But in 2020 a number of factors converged to create an unexpected peak.

In May last year, the Trump administration’s imposed sanctions against Huawei Technologies, which blocked the Chinese smartphone maker from purchasing semiconductors made with U.S. technology. The blockade, which gave suppliers 120 days to comply, prompted Huawei to increase orders and stockpile chips ahead of the ban.

“After the U.S. placed sanctions on Huawei, other Chinese smartphone makers started increasing semiconductor orders too because they wanted to take market share left by Huawei,” says Brady Wang, an analyst at Counterpoint Research. “That was one of the triggers for the shortage now.”

Next, the pandemic forced millions to shelter and work at home, increasing orders for personal electronics, which run on chips. China’s exports of laptop computers surged 9.8% in the first half of 2020, meeting the sudden demand for home offices. The pandemic also forced some chipmakers to temporarily shut down production lines, introducing a dip on the supply-side.

Perhaps more importantly, automakers expected the pandemic to reduce new car sales, and they cut production outlook and canceled their orders for semiconductors as a result. But the pandemic downturn was less pronounced than automakers expected, and consumer demand came roaring back as major economies rolled out vaccines.

Automakers that had canceled semiconductor purchases rushed to put in new orders but found themselves at the back of a line front-loaded with personal electronics makers. Daniel Nenni, founder of chip information forum SemiWiki, says, “Calling it a shortage is really not the case. It was just bad supply-chain management.”

Certainly not all automakers have been hit equally. Nissan chief operating officer Ashwani Gupta told Bloomberg that the chip shortage is something that every company “could have avoided” with better supply-chain management. Nissan, which has issued rolling stoppages on production lines because it can't source the chips it needs to complete orders, is among the companies that could have prepared better.

Meanwhile Toyota, which keeps a close eye on its supply chains, began stockpiling chips early and has coasted through the shortage.

Supply side

On a call with journalists on May 5, German chipmaker Infineon, which specializes in automotive chipsets, said automakers had learned their lesson from the chip shortage and that “this idea of ordering parts when you need them and canceling them then when you don’t will not return.”

But the semiconductor industry has other bottlenecks that are harder to resolve. Some 80% of the world’s chip supply—and, in fact, some 80% of Infineon's microcontroller supply—comes from Asia, where Taiwan’s TSMC dominates the market for contract chip manufacturing.

TSMC has invested $2.88 billion to expand capacity at a factory in China that produces automotive chips, in order to “ease the global chip supply challenge.” The company also has committed to spending $100 billion over the next three years to “address the structural increase in the long-term demand.”

The Taiwanese firm’s dominant position has made it something of a kingmaker amid the shortage. On May 5, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the commerce department was “working hard to see if we can get the Taiwanese and TSMC [to] prioritize the needs of [U.S.] auto companies.”

German ministers requested Taiwanese officials help get German automakers to the front of the queue as early as January. The Taiwanese side responded by requesting Germany help the island source COVID-19 vaccines, but the quid pro quo seemingly never materialized.

Both the U.S. and the EU have released plans to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity, limiting just slightly their reliance on Asia. The EU wants to double its chipmaking capacity by 2030, occupying 20% of the global market. Meanwhile U.S. President Joe Biden is pushing to secure $50 billion in government funding to revitalize the U.S.'s domestic industry. The extra capacity—some of which is being built by TSMC—won’t resolve the chip shortage soon but will help increase capacity in the long term.

“Across the industry, there will be a huge ramp-up of production by the end of 2021,” says Sanyam Chaurasia, an analyst at Canalys. Some chipmakers, he says, started increasing capacity even last year, but it takes roughly a year for new factories to come online.

“At the end of the day, supply will meet demand and there will be equilibrium,” says Chaurasia. “That's how business is run.”

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