摩根士丹利投资管理（Morgan Stanley Investment Management）新兴市场团队负责人鲁奇尔•夏尔马早就预见到了这些情况。很长一段时间以来，高盛（Goldman Sachs）前新兴市场策略分析师吉姆•奥尼尔的观点一直压制着夏尔马的悲观看法。今年早些时候离职的奥尼尔一直坚定地看好中国市场。夏尔马则在去年初出版的著作《Breakout Nations》中指出，中国和其他发展中国家很快就会取代西方国家而成为左右世界经济的力量是个伪命题。上周三，夏尔马在接受本刊采访时预测了中国、巴西等市场的前景。他说，他认为新兴市场遭到打压的局面不会很快结束。
In recent weeks, emerging markets, long seen as the darlings of the global economy, have tumbled. Cash is flowing out, pushing down the values of stocks, bonds, and currencies in India, Indonesia, and elsewhere. Brazil's problems have been well documented and are boiling over. China's long guaranteed growth is unsure.
Ruchir Sharma, who is the head of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's emerging markets team, saw it all coming. For a long time, Sharma's bearish calls were overshadowed by Goldman Sachs's Jim O'Neill, the former emerging market strategist and China perma-bull who left the bank earlier this year. But in his book, Breakout Nations, which came out early last year, Sharma said the notion that China and other developing nations would soon overtake the West as the drivers of the world economy was bogus. On Wednesday, Sharma talked to Fortune about what's next for China, Brazil, and others. The Morgan Stanley (MS) strategist says he thinks the emerging market selloff won't end anytime soon.
You have long been one of the few emerging market bears. Are you pleased that your dire predictions are coming true?
I think I was bearish, but only relatively. The optimism around emerging markets reached crazy levels back in 2009 and 2010. There was this general view that all the emerging markets will rise, and that the West was in permanent decline. What I saw was deep structural problems in Brazil and India and elsewhere that were largely being ignored. The reality is that some emerging countries will do well, and others won't, and I think the market is starting to realize that.
So it's not just the Fed?
That is the proximate cause of what has caused the current turmoil. And you have seen that the countries that are running a current account deficit, meaning they rely on foreign capital, have done the worst recently. But liquidity is not the only issue. We also have had this massive credit binge in China, perhaps the largest in economic history. That's coming to an end. And China is the 800-pound gorilla in the emerging markets. So as China slows, all the countries that have benefited from it will slow as well.
But aren't there signs that China is rebounding?
My view is that China is moving to a slower growth plane, say 5%-6%, and that it will move to that trend line in the next year or so. That's not a hard landing, but I don't think the market has priced that in.
How real are Brazil's problems?
I don't see Brazil, or Russia or South America for that matter, growing faster than the U.S. over the next three to five years. And that's really disappointing because the per-capita income in those countries is about one quarter of what it is in the U.S. Brazil relied heavily on the commodities boom, and they misspent the windfall on things that kept their citizens happy but at a very basic level, and not on infrastructure that would have provided a real, lasting benefit. Now what you have is the commodity boom abating, and I don't see where the new growth comes from.