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唱衰专家:中国经济最低将放缓到5%

唱衰专家:中国经济最低将放缓到5%

Stephen Gandel 2013年08月27日
一直唱衰新兴市场的摩根士丹利顶尖策略分析师鲁奇尔•夏尔马认为金砖国家未来的表现还会更加低迷。其中,中国的经济增速还会进一步放缓。中国经济虽然不会硬着陆,但是明年的增速会下降到5-6%。新兴市场放缓的同时,信心和资金会不断回到美国和日本等发达国家市场。
    摩根士丹利新兴市场策略分析师鲁奇尔•夏尔马 

    长期以来被一直被视为全球经济宠儿的新兴市场近几周大幅下跌。资金外流拉低了印度、印尼等地的股票、债券和货币价值。已得到充分探讨的巴西问题正处于爆发阶段。多年来一直很有保障的中国经济增长也出现了不确定性。

    摩根士丹利投资管理(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)新兴市场团队负责人鲁奇尔•夏尔马早就预见到了这些情况。很长一段时间以来,高盛(Goldman Sachs)前新兴市场策略分析师吉姆•奥尼尔的观点一直压制着夏尔马的悲观看法。今年早些时候离职的奥尼尔一直坚定地看好中国市场。夏尔马则在去年初出版的著作《Breakout Nations》中指出,中国和其他发展中国家很快就会取代西方国家而成为左右世界经济的力量是个伪命题。上周三,夏尔马在接受本刊采访时预测了中国、巴西等市场的前景。他说,他认为新兴市场遭到打压的局面不会很快结束。

不看好新兴市场的人很少,而你一直是其中的一员。看到自己的可怕预言变为现实让你觉得高兴吗?

    我知道自己态度悲观,但只是相对而言。2009-2010年期间,对新兴市场的乐观看法达到了疯狂的程度。当时人们普遍认为新兴市场将崛起,而西方国家会永远处于滑坡状态。我所看到的则是基本上无人理会巴西和印度等地存在的严重的结构性问题。实际情况是有些新兴市场国家将表现良好,另一些则不然。我认为市场已经开始意识到了这一点。

所以不光是因为美联储?

    美联储是造成这次市场大跌的最直接原因。有些国家的经常项目一直是逆差,这就是说它们依赖于海外资金,而最近这些市场的表现最差。但问题不光是流动性,还包括中国信贷的无节制增长。它可能是经济史上规模最大的信贷扩张。不过,目前这种信贷扩张已经接近尾声。中国是新兴市场中的巨无霸。所以,随着中国经济放慢脚步,所有从中国经济发展中受益的国家也将放缓。

但中国经济不是已经出现了反弹迹象吗?

    我的看法是中国经济增速正在放慢到5%-6%的样子,这种趋势大概会在明年出现。这不是硬着陆,但我认为市场走势还没有体现出这一点。

巴西的问题有多大的实际影响?

    我看巴西、俄罗斯或南非的角度不同。今后3-5年它们的经济增长率将超过美国,但真正令人失望的是这些国家的人均收入大概是美国的四分之一。巴西非常依赖大宗商品市场的繁荣,而且巴西政府一直在用这些意外之财来取悦公众,而不是把它们用在非常基本的层面,也没有投入到能真正持久发挥有利作用的基础设施上。现在大宗商品市场正在降温,而我却看不到新的经济增长点。

    In recent weeks, emerging markets, long seen as the darlings of the global economy, have tumbled. Cash is flowing out, pushing down the values of stocks, bonds, and currencies in India, Indonesia, and elsewhere. Brazil's problems have been well documented and are boiling over. China's long guaranteed growth is unsure.

    Ruchir Sharma, who is the head of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's emerging markets team, saw it all coming. For a long time, Sharma's bearish calls were overshadowed by Goldman Sachs's Jim O'Neill, the former emerging market strategist and China perma-bull who left the bank earlier this year. But in his book, Breakout Nations, which came out early last year, Sharma said the notion that China and other developing nations would soon overtake the West as the drivers of the world economy was bogus. On Wednesday, Sharma talked to Fortune about what's next for China, Brazil, and others. The Morgan Stanley (MS) strategist says he thinks the emerging market selloff won't end anytime soon.

You have long been one of the few emerging market bears. Are you pleased that your dire predictions are coming true?

    I think I was bearish, but only relatively. The optimism around emerging markets reached crazy levels back in 2009 and 2010. There was this general view that all the emerging markets will rise, and that the West was in permanent decline. What I saw was deep structural problems in Brazil and India and elsewhere that were largely being ignored. The reality is that some emerging countries will do well, and others won't, and I think the market is starting to realize that.

So it's not just the Fed?

    That is the proximate cause of what has caused the current turmoil. And you have seen that the countries that are running a current account deficit, meaning they rely on foreign capital, have done the worst recently. But liquidity is not the only issue. We also have had this massive credit binge in China, perhaps the largest in economic history. That's coming to an end. And China is the 800-pound gorilla in the emerging markets. So as China slows, all the countries that have benefited from it will slow as well.

But aren't there signs that China is rebounding?

    My view is that China is moving to a slower growth plane, say 5%-6%, and that it will move to that trend line in the next year or so. That's not a hard landing, but I don't think the market has priced that in.

How real are Brazil's problems?

    I don't see Brazil, or Russia or South America for that matter, growing faster than the U.S. over the next three to five years. And that's really disappointing because the per-capita income in those countries is about one quarter of what it is in the U.S. Brazil relied heavily on the commodities boom, and they misspent the windfall on things that kept their citizens happy but at a very basic level, and not on infrastructure that would have provided a real, lasting benefit. Now what you have is the commodity boom abating, and I don't see where the new growth comes from.

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