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贝卢斯科尼下台救不了意大利

Cyrus Sanati 2011年11月10日

贝卢斯科尼宣布有条件辞职,市场反应积极。然而,意大利真正的问题并不在领导层。经济实力的下降已使得这个国家只能靠借入更多的钱才能维持以往的好日子。更换新的领导人并不能改变这一点。

    意大利总理西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼可能会辞职,但这绝不能解决意大利和欧洲其他国家的深层经济问题。听闻这位自墨索里尼以来意大利任职时间最长的总理可能下台,市场反响积极,但愿意买入意大利债券的私人投资者依然少之又少,意大利债券收益率已升至自欧元诞生以来的最高位。

    意大利政坛的乱象一如眼下的希腊,熟悉南欧市场的交易员对此并不意外,。除了罗马,能左右意大利命运的还有布鲁塞尔,在那里欧元区的技术官员们正在努力找寻能医治地区主权债务危机的灵丹妙药。不幸的是欧盟同样也罹患罗马的政治失能症。两者都需要认真解决各自的政治问题,才能赢得市场的信赖。

    周二贝卢斯科尼没能在常规预算案投票中获得绝对多数——这场投票事实上已演变为对贝卢斯科尼的不信任投票。主要反对党弃权,凸显贝卢斯科尼领导的多党政治联盟已现裂痕。最终的投票结果是贝卢斯科尼获得了308票,距离能证明其拥有意大利国会绝对多数支持的316票低了8票。虽然由于没有反对票,预算案获得了通过,但未能获得绝对多数仍给贝卢斯科尼的政治前景打上了问号。

    撇开意大利这出大戏不谈,周二的投票及其结果只是旷日持久的欧洲主权债务危机众多插曲中的一个。虽然随后可能出现的权力真空以及由技术官员主导的临时政府,对于正处于经济历史关键时刻的意大利而言不是最优选择,但可能也不是灾难。

    The potential resignation of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is no panacea for the deep-rooted economic troubles within Italy and the rest of Europe. While the markets responded somewhat positively to reports that Italy's longest ruling leader since Mussolini is on his way out the door, there were still too few private investors willing to snap up Italian debt, sending Italian bond yields to their highest level since the founding of the euro.

    The political mess in Italy, like the one currently in Greece, is not a surprise for traders familiar with the southern European markets. Italy's fate is being decided not just in Rome, but also in Brussels, where euro zone technocrats are trying to concoct an elixir for the region's sovereign debt crisis. Unfortunately, the political dysfunction that has gripped Rome has also paralyzed the EU. Both need to get serious about solving their respective political problems before the market writes both of them off for good.

    Berlusconi failed to receive a total majority today in a normal budgetary vote, which had become a de facto vote of no confidence on his leadership of the Italian state. The main opposition party abstained from voting in an attempt to reveal the cracks in Berlusconi's disparate political coalition. The vote ended up eight shy of the 316 needed to show that he had a majority in the Italian parliament. While the budget bill passed, as there were no votes against the measure, the failure to receive a total majority has put Berlusconi's political future in doubt.

    Italian theatrics aside, the vote today and its outcome are really just one of the many sideshows in the long-running European sovereign debt crisis. While an ensuing power vacuum and a technocrat-run interim government certainly isn't the best choice for Italy at such a critical juncture in the nation's economic history, it probably won't spell disaster either.

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