作者: Colin Barr    时间: 2011年07月14日    来源: 财富中文网
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    The market has turned against the Continent with a vengeance. European bank stocks sold off for the second straight day, while the euro sank against both the dollar (see chart, right) and the Swiss franc.


    欧元已经降至1.41美元水平,较7月4日前最高位回落1个百分点。包括德国德意志银行(Deutsche Bank, DB)和英国巴克莱银行(Barclays, BCS)意大利裕信银行(Unicredit)在内的欧洲大型金融银行股跌幅高达6%-8%。











    The euro hit $1.41, down a nickel from its recent high just ahead of the July 4 holiday here. Big European financial companies, ranging from Deutsche Bank (DB) of Germany and Barclays (BCS) of the U.K. to Unicredit of Italy, saw their shares drop 6%-8%.

    The selloff started last week with a flight from government bonds issued by weaker European states. Italian and Spanish government bonds are trading at more than double the interest rates being paid on German government debt -- the highest spreads since the euro started trading a dozen years ago.

    The plunge of weaker-country government bond prices raises new fears about the health of European banks, which are big holders of sovereign debt. The selloff comes just ahead of the release of the results of the latest round of European bank stress tests.

    While European policymakers are hoping that the tests will ease fears about the health of the banking system, the plunge of Italian government bond prices in recent days throws a new wrench into that plan.

    Only a month ago Italy looked financially stretched but probably safe, as investors focused on whether Spain could survive an expected market test.

    Italy has a famously dysfunctional government and a big debt load, which is obviously problematic in a world of slow growth and overextended banks. Yet it has been running a small primary budget surplus, meaning government revenue exceeds spending excluding interest payments – a key measure of whether belt tightening can help cure fiscal ills.

    But that brand of wishful thinking seems to have gone out of style last month, when a downgrade of Italy's debt-rating outlook signaled that the weaker European states will no longer get the benefit of the doubt. As Moody's said at the time:

    The continued stability of market demand for Italy's debt is uncertain at current yields. Although future policy actions within the euro area could reduce investors' concerns and stabilize funding costs, the opposite is also possible. In any event, going forward, investors appear likely to differentiate more among euro area sovereign borrowers than they did prior to the financial crisis, to the disadvantage of euro area countries with higher-than-average debt burdens, like Italy.

    European policymakers are meeting again this week, and there are signs they are getting their heads around the size of the crisis. They are now discussing moves that would cut Greece's debt burden rather than simply lengthening the payback period, which is a welcome shift. The will have to be many bondholder haircuts all over the world before this crisis finally ends.

    At the same time, it is hard to escape the feeling that the market's turning on Italy is like the run on Fannie Mae in the early summer of 2008 – the moment at which it becomes clear that the scope of the crisis won't allow any easy escape. If the market keeps shunning Italian and Spanish debt and bank stocks keep falling, Europe will face more damaging bank runs and a disorderly default on someone's debt will become almost unavoidable.

    The endgame may not come quite as quickly this time round, for which we can be glad. But no matter what Europe's leaders do, it seems clear that there is going to be no shortage of pain for everyone to share.




@关子临: 自信也许会压倒聪明,演技的好坏也许会压倒脑力的强弱,好领导就是循循善诱的人,不独裁,而有见地,能让人心悦诚服。    参加讨论>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美国学者劳伦斯彼得在对组织中人员晋升的相关现象研究后得出的一个结论:在各种组织中,由于习惯于对在某个等级上称职的人员进行晋升提拔,因而雇员总是趋向于晋升到其不称职的地位。    参加讨论>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,应该可以解释为专注当下的事情,而不去想过去这件事是怎么做的,这件事将来会怎样。一方面,这种理念可以帮助员工排除杂念,把注意力集中在工作本身,减少压力,提高创造力。另一方面,这不失为提高员工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS们更看重的吧。    参加讨论>>

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