作者: Colin Barr    时间: 2011年04月13日    来源: 财富中文网
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    国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)本周一宣布,预计今年全球平均油价将为107美元/桶,明年为108美元/桶。最新预测比上次预测高出了20%,原因是2010年全球石油需求增长超预期,而供应响应滞后。


    国际货币基金组织在最新发布的《全球经济前景》(World Economic Outlook)半年度报告相关章节中指出,去年全球石油需求增长了3.4%。这是自2004年以来最快的增速,比国际货币基金组织2010年初的预期快了一倍。











    This year's oil price spike has dragged the IMF kicking and screaming into the world of overstressed energy markets.

    The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it expects the global oil price to average $107 a barrel this year and $108 next. That's 20% above its previous forecast, thanks to stronger-than-expected global petroleum growth in 2010 and a less than enthusiastic supply response.

    Even on Facebook, this trend isn't your friend

    Global oil demand rose 3.4% last year, the IMF said in the latest release of chapters from its semiannual World Economic Outlook report. That's the fastest pace since 2004 and double the rate IMF forecasters projected at the start of 2010.

    Meanwhile, the supply of crude oil "is responding sluggishly to the ongoing pickup in demand, largely reflecting the policy stance of OPEC," the IMF said.

    The IMF said it believes the high prices, if sustained at current levels, should have only a "mild effect" on global economic growth. But it conceded that "the key downside risk to growth relates to the potential for oil prices to surprise further on the upside because of supply disruptions."

    We have seen a few of those in recent months, to the IMF's apparent surprise. The agency predicted last fall that the oil price would average $78 this year. After an early year spike spurred by the political meltdown in Egypt, it raised that forecast to $89 in January.

    But now, oil is trading at $112 in New York and $126 in London, even as Middle East anxiety recedes -- along with U.S. gasoline demand. And the IMF is warning that another supply shock-driven surge in prices could undo a fragile global recovery.

    To that end, the IMF ran a stress test on the global economy to determine how it might deal with oil at $150 a barrel. The summer spike to $147 in 2008 is widely seen as having dealt a blow to economic activity, though it's hard to say for sure how big a hit that was since the financial system was coming undone at the same time.

    The IMF said a surge to that level in 2011, with prices falling back next year, could wipe 0.75 percentage point off its forecast for economic growth in advanced economies, which it currently sees expanding 2.5% this year. The impact would be varied elsewhere, with Asia and Latin America slowing but the Middle East gaining as oil export revenue rose.

    That is sort of a best-case worst-case scenario, however. "Global output losses would be much larger in the event of a permanent shock to oil supply," the IMF warns.

    The IMF hints at one possible source of such a disruption – the prospect that the rest of the world is overestimating the capacity of OPEC nations led by Saudi Arabia to boost production to meet growing global demand. If OPEC's spare production cushion is thinner than we think, prices are going to be much more apt to surge any time we see a flare-up in an oil-producing country.

    "The acceleration in OPEC crude oil production in December 2010 and January 2011 — when oil prices were closing in on the $100 a barrel threshold — suggests that OPEC members remain concerned about accelerated price increases," the IMF writes. "Nevertheless, the absence of an elastic production response when prices moved beyond the $70–$80 range has led to some uncertainty in markets about OPEC producers' implicit price targets."

    To say there's some uncertainty over OPEC's intentions, let alone its capabilities, is something of an understatement.




@关子临: 自信也许会压倒聪明,演技的好坏也许会压倒脑力的强弱,好领导就是循循善诱的人,不独裁,而有见地,能让人心悦诚服。    参加讨论>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美国学者劳伦斯彼得在对组织中人员晋升的相关现象研究后得出的一个结论:在各种组织中,由于习惯于对在某个等级上称职的人员进行晋升提拔,因而雇员总是趋向于晋升到其不称职的地位。    参加讨论>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,应该可以解释为专注当下的事情,而不去想过去这件事是怎么做的,这件事将来会怎样。一方面,这种理念可以帮助员工排除杂念,把注意力集中在工作本身,减少压力,提高创造力。另一方面,这不失为提高员工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS们更看重的吧。    参加讨论>>

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