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专栏 - 苹果2_0

为什么Android不如苹果iOS赚钱

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月02日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
谷歌Android市场拥有72,000款付费应用程序,但仅有2款应用程序的下载量超过了50万次。

80%的Android付费应用程序的下载量低于100次。来源:Distimo

    上月,总部位于荷兰乌特勒支(Utrecht)的分析公司Distimo发布了一份报告,其中有些部分颇为吸引眼球。报告指出,谷歌(Google)的Android市场正在快步追上苹果(Apple)的应用程序商店(App Store)并可能于7月超越后者。

    不过Roughly Drafted网站的丹尼尔•伊兰•迪尔格在一篇名为《Distimo在捧Android的臭脚》的分析报告中尖锐指出,Distimo的报告并没有提到应用程序商店为开发者带来了数十亿美元的收入,与之对比,却很少有人能依靠Android市场发财致富。

    在上周五发布的一份新报告中,Distimo探讨了出现上述问题的可能原因。最显著的原因是,苹果应用程序商店的付费应用程序数量(据Distimo统计,有211,369个)几乎是谷歌(71,801个)的3倍,不过在4月份的报告中,Distimo并未关注这一点。

    这一次,Distimo发现,由于种种原因,Android缺乏热门应用程序。Android市场中最成功的应用程序是谷歌自家的免费应用程序——谷歌地图(Google Maps),下载量超过5,000万次,不过其余应用程序的下载量都远不及它。

    Distimo的其它发现如下:(我引用的原文)

    • 谷歌Android市场中的付费应用程序下载量远低于免费应用程序。就全球范围而言,有24.8%的免费应用程序下载量低于100次,而付费应用程序中则有高达79.3%的下载次数不到100次。

    • 3月和4月,苹果iPhone版应用程序商店仅在美国就有6款付费应用程序的下载量超过50万次;而迄今为止,Android市场在全球只有2款付费应用程序的下载量超过50万次(但都低于100万次!)。

    • 谷歌Android市场有5款游戏在全球的下载量超过25万次;但仅仅在2个月时间里,苹果iPhone版应用程序商店单在美国就有10款游戏的下载量超过25万次。

    • 登上下载排行榜将极大提高应用程序的下载量。在10大免费和10大付费应用程序排行榜中,谷歌Android市场迄今只有26款应用程序上榜,而苹果iPhone版应用程序商店里则上榜了94款应用程序。

    Roughly Drafted网站的迪尔格是苹果的拥趸,对目前的情况颇有见地,他表示,Android市场的快速崛起其实是一种假象。Android也许仅仅在数量上获得了增长,但在质量上并无进步。迪尔格引用了苹果于去年9月发布的应用程序指南:

    “我们的应用程序商店已拥有超过25万款应用程序。我们并不需要没有意义的垃圾应用。如果你的应用程序没有实用之处,或是不能提供某种形式的持续性娱乐,那么它也许无法被市场接受。”

    迪尔格写道,谷歌并没有类似政策,“开发者只要付出一笔费用,就能把垃圾程序发布到Android市场的在线列表中。这就是谷歌的免费应用程序突然马上将在数量上‘击败’苹果的最重要原因,据Distimo统计,前者的数量为134,342款,后者则为121,845款。不过Distimo仅仅比较了垃圾应用、铃声和墙纸这类应用程序。当然,从这个角度而言,谷歌肯定可以胜出。”

    以下两幅图片来自Distimo的最新报告。你能在Distimo的网站上获得完整的报告(需要注册)。

    译者:项航

    The Utrecht-based analytics company Distimo generated some catchy headlines last month with a report suggesting that Google's (GOOG) Android Market was rapidly catching up to Apple's (AAPL) App Store and might surpass it by July.

    What that report didn't mention, as Roughly Drafted's Daniel Eran Dilger pointed out in a pungent analysis entitled "Distimo polishes the Android turd," is that the App Store is generating billions for developers, while hardly anybody is getting rich in the Android Market.

    In a new report issued Friday, Distimo looks at why that might be. One obvious factor -- not highlighted in April -- is that there are nearly three times as many paid apps on Apple's App Store (211,369, by Distimo's count) as on Google's (71,801).

    What Distimo discovered this time is that, for a variety of reasons, Android generates far fewer runaway hits. The most successful app in the Android Market, with more than 50 million downloads, is a Google freebie: Google Maps. Nothing else comes close.

    Among the other findings: (I quote)

    • Looking at paid applications in the Google Android Market, downloads are significantly lower than they are for free applications. The percentage of all free applications that have been downloaded less than 100 times is 24.8%, and the percentage of paid applications that have been downloaded less than 100 times worldwide is 79.3%.

    • In March and April together, six paid applications have generated more than 500,000 downloads each in just the United States in the Apple App Store for iPhone. In the Google Android Market however, only two paid applications have exceeded more than 500,000 downloads (but under 1 million) worldwide to date [emphasis ours].

    • There are five games in Google Android Market with over 250,000 downloads worldwide. In the Apple App Store for iPhone ten games generated more than 250,000 downloads in the United States alone in two months. [emphasis ours]

    • Being visible in the top charts is very important for generating more downloads... The top 10 free and top 10 paid applications together have seen only 26 applications in the Google Android Market, while there have been 94 applications in the top 10 free and paid in the Apple App Store for iPhone.

    Roughly Drafted's Dilger, an Apple partisan who clearly has a stick in this fire, suggests that the rapid ascendance of the Android Market is an illusion. Android may be gaining in sheer volume, he says, but not in quality. He quotes the app guidelines Apple issued last September:

    "We have over 250,000 apps in the App Store. We don't need any more Fart apps. If your app doesn't do something useful or provide some form of lasting entertainment, it may not be accepted."

    Google has no such policy, Dilger writes. "All one has to do is pay a fee and shovel junk into its online listings. Suddenly it's obvious why Google is 'beating' Apple in free titles: 134,342 to 121,845 according to Distimo: they're only comparing Fart Apps, ringtones and wallpapers. Of course Google is winning in that regard."

    Below: Two more charts from Distimo's new report. You can read it in its entirety here (registration required).

 

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