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霍尼韦尔CEO:美国拿什么跟中国争

David Cote 2014年06月04日

经济规模等于人口乘以生产率。如果比人口,美国可能永远比不过中国,所以我们需要专注于成为全世界最富创新力、生产率最高的国家。

    19世纪中叶,我们依靠人口增长和活力,在经济上超越了英国。我们鼓励商业、强烈的工作责任感和创新(其中有些是从英国人那里偷来的)。而在本世纪,中国可能超越美国,成为全世界最大的经济体。虽然有人指出中国政治制度的不稳定性,但当前中国的政治制度与50年或者20年前相比已经有了很大的变化。中国或许需要解决更多问题(腐败、财富分配不均、国有企业、污染和鬼城等),但他们已经证明有足够的能力进化自己的制度,同时解决所面临的问题。而我们却一直在原地踏步。

    这个问题无关中国的“好”或 “坏”,而是有关于这个国家的客观情况。按照目前的发展速度,在25年内,中国将成为全球最大的经济体,但人均GDP仍然较低,这意味着中国依旧有巨大的发展潜力。当然,这并不意味着中国的发展会不间断地持续下去。期间可能会出现问题。这也并不意味着我们就应该停止反对某些问题,比如网络安全、领土争端和知识产权等。

    我们需要完成两个目标。第一个目标是与中国建立牢固的商业关系,类似与我们曾经与英国建立的关系。美国独立战争之后的200年间,以及美国内战期间我们努力维持英美关系的中立状态之后的150年间,我们和英国一直保持着牢固的商业关系。当然这从来不是一件容易的事情。第二个目标(为第一个目标提供支持)是打造美国自己的竞争力。经济规模等于人口乘以生产率(即人均GDP)。如果比人口,美国可能永远比不过中国,所以我们需要专注于成为全世界最富创新力、生产率最高的国家。现在,我们就像是在参加一场经济上的奥运会,我们不能至专注于打败属于同一阵营的其他美国人。我们需要共和党和民主党精诚合作。双方对每一个问题的观点都有道理。我们需要求同存异。

    政府不仅要对商业进行监管,还要保持商业的正常运行。商业是生产率提高的来源,更代表了我们的生活标准。我们在这方面有许多优势。有效的、明智的监管对于设定最低标准至关重要,保持商业的正常运行对于培养经济增长所需的推动力有着关键作用,而经济增长将提供就业和更多机遇,这是所有美国人希望看到的。

    现在,美国政府应该保持以下八个领域的正常运转。首先是解决债务问题。我们不可能与糟糕的资产负债表争输赢。我们的资产负债表正在日益恶化,而不是好转。估算没有预测任何衰退,而衰退必将让资产负债情况进一步恶化。按照当前的预测,随着中国的GDP超过美国,我们的负债将超过GDP的100%。难道这就是我们希望留给子孙的遗产吗?其次是重建濒临崩溃的基础设施。第三是增加所有级别的数学与科学教育。我们需要更多的工程师,而不是律师和金融工程师。第四是移民制度改革。

    第五是侵权法改革。侵权制度对于解决社会不公平问题非常重要,但它同时也应该对提供投资与就业的公司做到公平。第六是资金充足的专利制度,能够更快承认专利和解决争端。第七是鼓励效率、生产更多能源(既包括传统能源,也包括经济上可行的可再生能源)的能源政策。第八是自由和公平贸易。美国总统需要通过贸易促进权(TPA)来促进贸易协议,支持美国就业。如果没有贸易促进权,将无法推动贸易协议的达成。贸易的支持者与反对者对这个问题都心知肚明。

    

    During the mid 1800’s, we eclipsed the UK economically because of population growth and dynamism. We encouraged business, a strong working ethic, and innovation (some stolen from the UK). During this century, China may eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy. While some might point to the unsustainability of China’s political system, it is very different than it was 50 years ago or 20 years ago. China may have more issues to deal with (corruption, wealth disparity, state owned enterprises, pollution, and ghost cities to name a few), but they have shown tremendous capability to evolve their system and address their issues. We are standing still.

    This is not a case of is China “good” or is China “bad,” rather it’s a case of China “is.” At current growth rates, in about 25 years China will be the world’s largest economy and will still have a lower GDP per capita, meaning more growth is possible. This is not to say China’s growth will continue uninterrupted. Something could go awry. It also doesn’t mean we should stop objecting to issues like cyber security, territorial disputes and intellectual property issues.

    We need to accomplish two goals. The first is to develop a strong commercial relationship with China similar to what we’ve been able to do with the UK in the 200 years since we last fought them in a war and the 150 years since we worked to keep them neutral during the U.S. Civil War. It’s never easy. The second (which supports the first) is to have our own American competitiveness agenda. Economic size represents population times productivity (defined as GDP per capita). We will never have more people than China so we need to focus on always being the most innovative and productive country on Earth. There is an Economic Olympics going on now and we can’t just focus on beating the other Americans on our team. We need Republicans and Democrats working together. There is truth to arguments on both sides of each issue. We need to find that common ground and act.

    Government doesn’t just regulate business, it enables it. Business is the source of productivity and our standard of living. We have a lot of strengths to build upon. Good, smart regulation is important to set minimum standards and enabling is important to foster that dynamism essential to a growing economy that provides the jobs and opportunities we all want to see.

    There are eight areas the U.S. government should enable now. First is resolving our debt. We can’t successfully compete with a bad balance sheet. We have a bad balance sheet that is getting worse, not better. The estimates don’t forecast any recessions, which will of course make them worse. Using current forecasts, at about the same time China’s GDP eclipses the U.S., our debt will exceed 100% of our GDP. Is that the legacy we want to leave our kids and grandkids? Second is rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure. Third is more math and science education at all levels. We need more engineers, not more lawyers and financial engineers. Fourth is immigration reform.

    Fifth is tort reform. The tort system is important to address social inequities, but it also needs to be fair to the companies that provide investment and jobs. Sixth is a well-funded, patent system with faster acknowledgment of patents and resolution of disputes. Seventh is an energy policy that encourages efficiency and production of more energy (traditional and economically viable renewables). Eighth is Free and Fair Trade. The President needs Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to foster trade agreements that support U.S. jobs. Trade agreements are unlikely to move forward without it, and both opponents and proponents of trade know that.   

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