订阅

多平台阅读

微信订阅

杂志

申请纸刊赠阅

订阅每日电邮

移动应用

商业 - 科技

科技股可能还要跌

Stephen Gandel 2014年04月14日

分析人士认为,就算是在经历了近期纳斯达克的下跌之后,投资者对科技股走势的判断依然过于乐观。眼下的情形跟2001年纳斯达克的走势类似,科技股可能依然存在下跌的空间。

    即使经历了近期的下跌之后,科技股获得的成长估值依然过高。

    目前,科技股已较3月初的高点下跌了6%,超过同期大盘的跌幅。

    但这并不意味着大家现在可以拣点便宜货了。根据2014年预期收益计算,纳斯达克100指数(Nasdaq 100)的成份股平均动态市盈率为18倍,高于标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)16倍的市盈率。而且,这还是在科技股下跌之后。

    科技股的拥趸者们表示,将科技股的市盈率与一般大公司相比不公平。科技股的利润增速往往较快,因此应该享有较高的市盈率。

    公平一点的做法是将科技股与科技股相比。市场研究公司FactSet的数据显示,2001年初时纳斯达克100指数的市盈率为60倍。因此,今天的18倍看起来很便宜。

    但问题是:目前科技公司的增速虽然仍高于其他行业,但收益增速已经显著低于历史水平。对于那些构成纳斯达克100指数市值主体的大型科技公司,这个趋势表现得更明显。

    比方说,预计微软(Microsoft)今年收益将仅增长3.4%。预计甲骨文(Oracle)的收益将增长1.3%。就算是苹果(Apple),分析师们也只是预计将实现2.8%的利润增长。

    回到2001年,当时分析师们预计纳斯达克100指数的成份股利润在接下来一年将增长34%。今天,分析师们预计纳斯达克100指数中大盘股公司的利润增幅是温和得多的10%。

    另一个可用于分析这一问题的指标是GARP,据报道,这是共同基金巨头彼得•林奇非常喜欢的一个指标。GARP比率就是以合理价格成长,用于比较一只股票或市场的市盈率与收益增长率。2001年时,纳斯达克100指数的GARP比率约为1.8。如今的GARP比率也是1.8.

    2001年初买进科技股的投资者本以为捡了便宜,其实根本就不是那么回事。2001年这一年,纳斯达克100指数再度下跌了33%。如今的投资者可能也会同样地失望。(财富中文网)

    

    For tech stocks, growth may no longer be coming at a reasonable price, even after the recent pull-back.

    Technology stocks are down 6% since they peaked in early March. And that drop is larger than the dip in the general market during the same time period.

    But that doesn't mean there are bargains to be had. The average stock in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has a price-to-earnings multiple of 18, based on projected 2014 bottom lines. That compares to 16 for the S&P 500 (SPX). And that's with the dip.

    Technology stock believers say it's unfair to compare the P/E ratios of the average large company to tech stocks. Technology companies tend to increase in earnings at a faster rate, so they deserve higher P/E ratios.

    It would be more fair to compare technology stocks to themselves. Back in early 2001, the Nasdaq 100 had a P/E of 60, according to FactSet. So today's 18 looks cheap.

    Here's the problem: Technology companies, while still growing faster than the rest of the economy, are not increasing their earnings nearly as fast as they once were. That's particularly true for the large technology companies that make up the majority of the market cap of the Nasdaq 100.

    Microsoft (MSFT), for instance, is only expected to increase its earnings 3.4% this year. Income at Oracle (ORCL) is projected to rise 1.3%. Even with Apple (AAPL), analysts are only looking for a 2.8% bottom-line jump.

    Back in 2001, analysts were predicting that the companies that then made up the the Nasdaq 100 would boost their bottom lines by 34% over the following year. These days, analysts are projecting a more modest 10% growth in earnings among Nasdaq's 100 largest companies.

    Another way to look at this is a ratio some call the GARP multiple, which was reportedly a favorite metric of mutual fund giant Peter Lynch. The name stands for Growth at a Reasonable Price, and the ratio compares a stock's, or the market's, P/E multiple to earnings growth. Back in 2001, the Nasdaq 100 had a GARP ratio of around 1.8. Today's GARP multiple: 1.8.

    Investors who bought into technology stocks in early 2001 thinking they were getting a bargain didn't get one. The Nasdaq 100 fell another 33% that year. Today's technology investors could be similarly disappointed.

我来点评

  最新文章

最新文章:

500强情报中心

财富专栏