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商业 - 科技

顶尖分析师:我们正向新一代平台转移

Dan Mitchell 2013年06月03日

玛丽•米克尔是全球最顶尖的互联网分析师。上周,她在自己的年度报告中称,移动行业仍有很大发展空间,同时,消费者已经开始从智能手机、平板电脑等设备向可穿戴式设备转移。

        图为1975年至2012年间按操作系统出货量衡量,iOS、安卓、Windows在全球个人电脑市场份额的变迁。

    

    玛丽•米克尔的年度“互联网趋势”报告跟上周一上午科奇•罗伯茨在美国国家公共电台(NPR)的说法类似,充斥着毫无新意的传统智慧。

    当然,这并不意味着这份报告毫无价值:与罗伯茨每周的报告一样,米克尔的年度报告将许多不相干的信息放在大背景下进行分析,让人们认识到什么才是传统智慧:罗伯茨是环城路智慧,而米克尔则是硅谷智慧。在这方面,米克尔比罗伯茨略胜一筹:她提供的大部分都是由风险投资公司凯鹏华盈(Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers)内部生成的数据。这位互联网分析师同时也是这家公司的合伙人。上周三,她在AllThingD科技大会上公布了自己的报告,使用了大量幻灯片。

    其中一份幻灯片显示,在社交媒体服务领域,Facebook仍处于领先位置,Twitter、Pinterest、YouTube、商务社交网站LinkedIn等均增长迅速,促使米克尔说出了一句可以作为报告标语的话:“大家都知道这些,靠直觉就能理解——下面这些数据只是佐证。”

    另外一张幻灯片显示,网民每天在线分享的照片达到了5亿张。米尔克预计,一两年内,这个数据将就会翻一番。虽然90%分享的照片只有分享者自己认为有趣,但这个数据依然令人难以置信,它也解释了为什么Facebook愿意出10亿美元收购Instagram,为什么雅虎(Yahoo)最终决定对之前停滞不前的Flickr服务进行改进,以及为什么苹果(Apple)在电视广告里都在把iPhone宣传成一款相机。米克尔表示,引领照片分享增长趋势的是Snapchat,但照片同样带动了Facebook和其他服务的流量增长。

    Mary Meeker's annual Internet Trends report is a little like Cokie Roberts's Monday morning appearances on NPR -- a litany of points of unsurprising conventional wisdom.

    That doesn't make it valueless: Like Roberts's weekly reports, Meeker's annual presentations put a lot of disparate information in context and offer a guide to what is, well, the conventional wisdom: Beltway wisdom in Roberts's case, Silicon Valley wisdom in Meeker's. Meeker is one up on Roberts in this respect: She offers a lot of data largely generated in-house at the venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers, where the Internet analyst is a partner. Her report, presented Wednesday at the AllThingsD conference, was, as always, accompanied by an insane number of slides.

    One of them, showing Facebook (FB) at the head of the pack of social media services that are all growing -- Twitter, Pinterest, YouTube (GOOG), LinkedIn (LNKD) -- prompted Meeker to utter a line that could have been the slogan for her report: "You know that, you intuit it -- here's some data that backs it up."

    Another slide showed that 500 million photos are shared online every day, and Meeker expects that number to double between this year and next. Never mind that seemingly 90% of shared photos are interesting mainly just to the sharer, that's an incredible number and it explains why Facebook shelled out $1 billion for Instagram, why Yahoo (YHOO) finally got around to revamping its formerly moribund Flickr service, and why Apple (AAPL) is running all those TV spots peddling the iPhone as a camera. Snapchat is leading the growth of photo-sharing, Meeker said, but photos are driving traffic growth for Facebook and lots of other services as well.

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