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“中国制造”正为美国赚钱

Sheridan Prasso 2011年08月17日

如果美国人不希望自己的钱流向中国制造的商品,大可不必担心——因为美国人花在它们身上的大部分又回到了美国公司和工人的口袋。

    又要返校了,你还在为要花70美元购买一双 “中国制造”,而不是“美国制造”的胶底运动鞋而伤脑筋吗?根据最新的研究,你大可不必为此担心。

    美国人花在中国制造的商品上的钱,有一大半实际上留在了美国——它们流进了美国公司、工人、营销人员、零售商、和物流商的口袋里。根据旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的报告,每1美元的消费中,就有至少55美分留在了美国。所以,就那双70美元的胶底运动鞋来说,至少有38.50美元收入了美国囊中。

    Worried about buying a $70 pair of sneakers that say "Made in China" this back-to-school season because you'd rather spend your dollars on "Made in U.S.A." products instead? Worry not, according to a new study.

    More than half the amount you spend on products made in China actually stays here -- going to American companies, workers, marketers, retailers, and transport providers. The amount is least 55 cents per each $1 spent, says a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. So for that $70 pair of sneakers, $38.50 of it boosts bottom lines here in the U.S.

 (图例,从上到下)

 - 美国原产的美国货

 - 从其他国家进口零部件生产的美国货

 - 从中国进口零部件生产的美国货

 - 从其他国家进口的成品

 - 从中国进口的成品

 - 其他国家产品中的美国成分

 - 中国制造中的美国成分

数据来源:美国联邦经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)、美国联邦劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)、美国联邦人口普查局(Census Bureau)及作者的计算数据。

    尽管你可能从沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)或其他大卖场的购物经验中总结出、或听说,美国对中国的中国贸易逆差的数字有多么耸人听闻,但中国进口的商品在美国总体经济中实际只占很小的一部分:2010年,中国进口仅占美国国内生产总值的2.5%。总体来说,去年美国从全球进口的产品在美国GDP中的份额也只有16%。根据旧金山联邦储备银行(FRBSF)报告的作者加琳娜•希尔和巴特•霍比金恩,“大部分美国销售的商品和服务都是本土制造。”家具、家居用品、电子产品、服装和鞋不在此列。2010年,三分之一的美国消费者购买的服装和鞋打有“中国制造”的标签。而家具中“中国制造”的比例占到了五分之一。

    不过根据数据,服务业支撑起了美国经济的主体,而除制造业产品外,中国进口的服务在美国经济中根本不存在。报告指出,美国消费者购买的产品和服务中,有88.5%源自美国本土。根据希尔和霍比金恩:“主要原因是,占据消费三分之二的服务是由当地提供的。”

    报告的作者同时指出,大量元件,例如iPhone使用的半导体芯片和设计,均源自美国。他们援引了一份2009年亚洲发展银行研究所(Asian Development Bank Institute)的研究报告,称在中国生产一台iPhone的成本约为179美元,而iPhone的售价约为500美元。因此,美国零售成本中有179美元包含在中国进口的成分当中。但实际上,在中国组装的成本仅为6.50美元。剩余的172.50美元为其他国家制造零部件的成本,其中包括在美国制造零件所花费的10.75美元。

    旧金山联邦储备银行发布这份新报告的原因是中国通货膨胀高涨亮起红灯。根据中国方面最近公布的数据,7月份全国CPI增长率为6.5%,高于6月份的6.4%,创下近三年来的新高。鉴于中国制造在iPhone这类产品中的占比极低,报告的作者总结认为,中国最近劳工成本的增长和通货膨胀不太可能会在美国国内转变成为海外通货膨胀压力。希尔和霍比金恩称“这意味着中国的通货膨胀对美国消费价格产生的直接影响微乎其微。”鉴于美国经济近来的状态,美国消费者不如姑且相信这些数据,稍稍放松一下紧绷的神经。

    译者:周峰

    And despite what you may conclude from shopping at Wal-Mart (WMT) or other large stores -- or hearing big, scary figures about the trade deficit with China -- imports from China make up just a very small portion of our total economy: just 2.5% of gross domestic product in 2010. Overall, products from around the world accounted for only 16% of our GDP last year. "The vast majority of goods and services sold in the United States is produced here," according to FRBSF report authors Galina Hale and Bart Hobijn. The exceptions are furniture and household items, electronic goods, and clothing and shoes. A third of U.S. consumer purchases for clothing and shoes in 2010 carried a "Made in China" label. For furniture, it was one fifth.

    But it's services that make up the overwhelming majority of the U.S. economy, according to the data, and no services at all came from China -- just manufactured products. 88.5% of U.S. consumer spending is for products and services originating here, the report says. "This is largely because services, which make up about two-thirds of spending, are produced locally," according to Hale and Hobjin.

    The authors also point out that a large number of component parts -- like semiconductor chips and designs used in the iPhone -- originate in the U.S. They point to a 2009 Asian Development Bank Institute study reporting that it cost about $179 to produce an iPhone in China. The phone is then sold here for about $500. Thus, $179 of the U.S. retail cost consisted of Chinese imported content. But only $6.50 actually went to cover assembly costs in China. The other $172.50 was for parts produced in other countries, including $10.75 for parts made in the U.S.

    The reason for the new FRBSF report is the red flag raised by China's growing inflation. The latest numbers from Beijing show a 6.5% annual rise across the country in July, up from 6.4% in June and breaking a three-year record. But with such low levels of Chinese content in products like iPhones, the report's authors conclude that recent increases in labor costs and inflation in China are not likely to translate into broad inflationary pressures in the U.S. "This suggests that Chinese inflation will have little direct effect on U.S. consumer prices," Hale and Hobjin say. Given the state of the U.S. economy these days, consumers can take that data and breathe a small sigh of relief.   

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