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熊市注定要来临,必须关注这5种数据

当前的美好时光不会永远持续下去。怎样在熊市“吃掉”你的积蓄前采取行动?

今年6月经济学家将宣布大衰退已结束10年。不过,尽管那次危机带来的痛苦回忆已经消散,但整体而言投资者想到下一次衰退时会变得更为惶恐。市场波动性大幅上升,原因是较小的经济回落引发了频繁的大规模抛售。过去12个月,就在美股指数连创新高之际,投资者从共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)中净撤资约1000亿美元,这表明老百姓越发感到不安。

说到好的一面,经济学家会告诉你这些紧张表现背后的谨慎心态合情合理。实际上,据美国国家经济研究局介绍,77%的经济学家预计2021年底前美国经济将出现衰退,届时公司利润增速将下滑,海外经济的缓慢增长也将为美国经济设下陷阱。但投资者往往会忘记并非所有衰退都会造成股市崩盘。摩根大通资产管理公司首席全球策略分析师大卫·凯利指出,此前两次衰退的严重影响让我们习惯于做出最坏打算。凯利说:“我们经常假设,如果出现熊市,那将是一头‘大灰熊’,但实际上它也许只是一只‘树袋熊’。”

不过,就算是树袋熊也有牙齿,而且任何人都不想被咬。下面,《财富》杂志撰稿人将探讨五个不那么知名但能为今后的经济滑坡提供可靠线索的经济指标,同时就如何应对提出建议,以便大家对任何尺寸的“熊”都不会反应过度。

In June, economists will mark the 10th anniversary of the end of the Great Recession. But even as traumatic memories of that crisis recede, investors collectively have grown more jittery in anticipation of the next one. Market volatility has soared as relatively minor economic setbacks trigger frequent, dramatic selloffs. And over the past 12 months, at the same time that U.S. stock indexes have notched new records, mutual-fund shareholders have pulled out about $100 billion more from stock mutual funds and ETFs than they put in—a sign of mounting unease among Main Street savers.

Ask the pros and they’ll tell you that the caution underlying those jitters is justified. Indeed, 77% of economists expect a recession by the end of 2021, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, with slowing corporate earnings in the U.S. and sluggish growth abroad stacking the deck against the economy. Investors tend to forget, however, that not all recessions trigger market crashes. David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, argues that the severe impact of the past two recessions has conditioned us to expect the worst. “We often assume when we have a bear market, it’s going to be a grizzly bear,” says Kelly. “But it might just turn out to be a koala bear.”

That said, even koalas have teeth, and nobody wants to get bitten. Here, Fortune’s writers take a look at five lesser-known economic indicators that offer reliable clues about a future slowdown, along with advice about how to react—without overreacting—to bears of any size.

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