4. Talent exodus? This is a big question mark. I think one of the most incredible things about Google is the company's excellent culture and unique ability to hang on to outstanding talent for a long long time. There were certain management practices that were core to Google that made it an exciting place to work. From the distributed nature of its product teams, to its maniacal focus on valuing engineers, to its free-market-like prioritization of resources and products, to 20% time, etc etc. It means something special to be a Googler. And although some of these practices have evolved and the company has changed, I'd argue that Google will maintain higher calibre talent much longer than other large scale technology leaders like MSFT, Ebay, Yahoo, etc. Will Facebook be able to do the same? I'm really not sure. We'll hear much much more in the coming years about how Facebook is run and how it represents the next step in the evolution of high-performing engineering organizations. But if it can't bottle some of the magic that Google was able to achieve, I think the company will risk sliding slowly from the center of the internet to its periphery.
All this said, it's obviously easy to poke holes at a company from the sidelines. Facebook is an amazing company and will continue to look pretty dominant for at least the next 5 years (much like Yahoo). But I think its ability to remain a great company for 10+ years will depend on how well it navigates the four challenges/opportunities above.
I look forward to the company's public offering and will probably be a buyer… at least the first couple years.
Rob Go is co-founder of NextView Ventures, a seed-stage investment firm focused on Internet-enabled innovation. He previously was with Spark Capital, and blogs over at http://www.robgo.org/.
