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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果营收低于预期,股票盘后交易受挫

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月19日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
Mac电脑与iPad的销量均创历史记录,但iPhone手机的销量却并不令人满意。

    关于毛利润率的问题:组件价格与iPhone销量保证了较高的毛利润率,但坚挺的美元和产品降价却拉低了毛利润率。

    关于中国市场:库克称,“中国市场的发展令人惊奇。”2009年,大中华区在2009财年营收中所占的比例仅为2%,而本季度则达到16%,为公司贡献了45亿美元收入。这一地区中产阶级崛起的速度令人乍舌,规模也在不断扩大,已经成为苹果公司的第二大市场。此外,库克还强调了巴西市场(年销量同比增长达118%)。此外,俄罗斯和中东市场也很有前景。“中国市场的潜力不可限量。”

    关于供应链:库克称,我们拥有一支卓越的团队,创下了业内最高的历史记录。“我们的方法是与尽量少的人进行商业合作,这样我们可以与合作伙伴建立深入密切的合作关系。”我们可以获得更优惠的价格和更高的服务质量。

    关于平板电脑市场:库克重申,iPad和Mac的销量在本季度均创下历史记录。目前,市场中涌现出多家竞争对手。“应该说,到目前为止,这些竞争对手都没能对我们形成实际的威胁。”事实上,随着新的竞争对手出现,苹果公司的销量反而出现了上涨。“我对我们的产品充满信心。”

    关于本季度推迟引入新运营商的问题:在iPhone 4S推出之后引入新运营商。此外还包括在假日季节之前引入新运营商。

    关于平板电脑市场规模:库克称,市场规模超出了我们的想象,销售量累积已经达4,000万台。并且,库克坚信平板电脑市场的规模将超过个人电脑市场。使用平板电脑的用户将大幅增加。“我认为,这个市场存在巨大的机遇。”

    关于iPhone手机的后续型号:有多少款产品被推迟到下个季度发布?库克称,如果没有关于新款iPhone的谣言,销量能增加多少可想而知。iPhone 4S“已经突破了预期”。第一个周末便售出了300万台。“难道大家只对这个问题感兴趣吗。”

    下个季度iPad的销售情况预测:奥本海默预计下个季度,iPad与iPhone都将创历史记录。而对于Mac电脑的销售情况,奥本海默保守预测,将会超过其他竞争对手。

    问题:Siri仅仅是一项新功能,还是与设备交互的革命性创新?库克称:“我们把Siri视为具有重大意义的创新。”虽然我并还不知道此项功能的实际应用频率有多大,但直觉告诉我,应该小不了吧?

    关于泰国市场:库克非常关心泰国水灾造成的损失。目前多家工厂仍无法投入运营。损失最大的是Mac电脑。很大一部分电脑硬盘均在泰国生产。几乎可以确定,不久全球将会面临硬盘短缺问题;不过,在制定370亿美元的营收目标时,苹果已经将这一问题考虑在内。

    关于与安卓(Android)产品的专利诉讼:苹果最终目的是什么?库克称:对于这个问题,不想做过多评论。“但根本问题在于,我们花费了大量的时间、财力和资源才获得这些富有创意的专利,别人却不劳而获,我们对这一点非常不满。”

    您希望得到什么样的赔偿?无可奉告。

    Question about gross margins. Component prices and iPhone sales keep the GM high, but the strength of the dollar and price cuts lower the GM.

    Question about China. "China progress has been amazing," says Cook. Greater China represented 2% of revenue in '09, 16% in this quarter. Accounted for $4.5 billion of revenue for the current quarter. Has never seen as many people rising into the middle class. Has quickly become the No. 2 country in terms of revenue for Apple. Also focused on Brazil (sales up 118% YoY). Russia and Middle East looking promising. "In China the sky's the limit."

    Question about supply chain. Cook: We have an outstanding team and a track record that is the best in the industry. "Out approach has always been to do business with as few people as we can so we can be very deep with them." We get great prices and quality.

    Question about the tablet market. Cook reiterates a record quarter for both iPad and Mac. Have seen several competitors come forward. "I think its reasonable to say that none of them have achieved any traction so far." In fact, Apple sales have gone up as new entries came in. "I feel extremely confident in our product pipeline."

    Question about deferring new carriers in Sept. quarter. Pushed new carriers off until after the launch of the iPhone 4S. With that behind them, now including new carriers in advance of the holiday season.

    Question about the size of the tablet market. Cook: Market even better than we thought. Sold 40 million in a cumulative basis. Still believes it will be larger than the PC market. There will be many many more people who can access it. "I think its a huge opportunity over time."

    Follow-up on the iPhone. How many units were pushed off into the next quarter? Cook: We can say how many we would have sold if there hadn't been rumors about the new iPhone. The iPhone 4S "is off the charts." 3 million sold in first weekend. "That's the mother of all uplifts (?)."

    How will the iPad sell in Dec. quarter? Oppenheimer: Expect new records for both iPad and iPhone in Dec. quarter. For Mac, only promised to outgrow the market.

    Question: Is Siri a feature or a new way to interact with devices? Cook: "We see this as a profound innovation." What percentage of use, I don't know, but gut feeling is that it is substantial?

    Question about Thailand: Cook's "heart goes out" to the losses from the monsoons. Several factories that are currently not operable. Our primary exposure is on the Mac. Significant portion of hard drives are made in Thailand. Virtually certain there will be a worldwide shortage of hard drives, but already factored into their $37 billion guidance number.

    Question about Android patent disputes. What's your ultimate objective? Cook: Doesn't want to comment. "But basically, we spend a lot of time and money and resources coming up with incredible innovations. We don't like it when someone else takes those."

    What kind of remedies are you seeking? That's what I don't want to comment on.

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